The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[GOGODanca]

Shazam needs some really good reviews cause these sales are just terrible

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Boxofficerules said:

Didn’t Grace Randolph say Scream 6 was gonna bomb?

She did, included it on a list of likely 2023 flops. 
 

The tracking looks promising for Scream VI, but as someone else said earlier, still burned by Scream 4 lol. 

 

Edited February 20, 2023 by Krissykins

[filmlover]

7 hours ago, Krissykins said:

She did, included it on a list of likely 2023 flops. 
 

The tracking looks promising for Scream VI, but as someone else said earlier, still burned by Scream 4 lol. 

 

Honestly the underperformance of Scream 4 back in 2011 is looking more and more like an outlier. I think with a better distributor/marketing campaign (Weinstein stunk at selling anything that wasn't an awards contender during the years before his decline accelerated) it would've approached a $25M opening at least.

Edited February 21, 2023 by filmlover

[Lestranger]

The Quorum numbers having been super consistent with Scream and Creed. I expect both to really break out. Those Scream preview numbers look way too good to be true. I mean what ow multi would you use for the forecasted preview night number? Scream 5 did 8.5 off a 3.5m preview. Let's say it somehow does 8m previews, then what? 6x, so almost 50m. That feels like the basement now even though official trackers are saying 25-38. That just doesn't align with the data points that are out there now. 

[Ronin46]

5 minutes ago, Lestranger said:

The Quorum numbers having been super consistent with Scream and Creed. I expect both to really break out. Those Scream preview numbers look way too good to be true. I mean what ow multi would you use for the forecasted preview night number? Scream 5 did 8.5 off a 3.5m preview. Let's say it somehow does 8m previews, then what? 6x, so almost 50m. That feels like the basement now even though official trackers are saying 25-38. That just doesn't align with the data points that are out there now. 

 

Sales are really all that counts now. We have a few data points and they all say the same thing. Qourum and tracking are ok to start with but sales are what really counts. If the movie is actually good then 50M seems very likely, if its bad then it wont happen. If its decent then something in the 40s seems likely.

[TheFlatLannister]

I've been trying to track some upcoming films though Fandango but I keep getting :

 

"Sorry, an error has occurred.

Either there is no network connection or a communcation error has occurred. Please check your settings and try again later."

 

Anyone has a workaround for this? 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I've been trying to track some upcoming films though Fandango but I keep getting :

 

"Sorry, an error has occurred.

Either there is no network connection or a communcation error has occurred. Please check your settings and try again later."

 

Anyone has a workaround for this? 

 

I can't recall if that's the exact message I get, but I get something like that when I trip Fandango's flood control by trying to track too many showings too quickly.  Generally speaking I've found if I space out the requests by about 8 seconds it seems not to trip. Curiously enough flood control isn't tripping for all chains, just some.

 

If it isn't that, then 'fraid I can't be of more help as it might be a technical thing with whatever browser/system setup you're using.

[The Wild Eric]

Cocaine Bear Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	31	218	4001	5.45%

 

Comp - T-3

2.422x of Ambulance (1.69M)

1.129x of Unbearable Weight (943K)

0.586x of The Black Phone (1.76M)

0.231x of Nope (1.48M)

0.330x of Bullet Train (1.52M)

2.018x of Beast (1.87M)

0.685x of Smile (1.37M)

1.415x of Violent Night (1.56M)

1.124x of M3GAN (3.09M)

0.852x of Knock at the Cabin (1.23M)

[The Wild Eric]

Jesus Revolution Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	15	609	3373	18.06%

 

I don't have any comps for this, because I didn't look at The Chosen, or any of the other rando Christian movies. I just chose this one because I saw this one had a seemingly more general and standard release. But...oh my. Important to note that almost all of it is from Early Access shows and this is probably going to be frontloaded as h*ck, but...oh my.

[The Wild Eric]

On 2/20/2023 at 12:37 AM, Eric the Conqueror said:

Creed III Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	453	13568	3.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 69

 

Comp - T-11

0.524x of F9 (3.72M)

0.682x of No Time to Die (4.3M)

0.861x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (3.87M)

0.757x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (4.54M)

1.262x of Nope (8.07M)

0.593x of Black Adam (4.51M)

0.214x of Avatar 2 (3.64M)

Creed III Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	491	13568	3.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 38

 

Comp - T-10

0.551x of F9 (3.91M)

0.654x of No Time to Die (4.12M)

0.846x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (3.81M)

0.748x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (4.49M)

1.256x of Nope (8.04M)

0.607x of Black Adam (4.61M)

0.224x of Avatar 2 (3.81M)

[The Wild Eric]

On 2/20/2023 at 12:40 AM, Eric the Conqueror said:

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	582	8200	7.10%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 25

 

Comp - T-18

2.395x of Scream (8.38M)

2.238x of Nope (14.33M)

 

Okay, we back to normal now.

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	605	8200	7.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 23

 

Comp - T-17

2.430x of Scream (8.5M)

2.300x of Nope (14.72M)

[The Wild Eric]

On 2/20/2023 at 12:44 AM, Eric the Conqueror said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-25 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	168	16243	1.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

 

Comp - T-25

0.159x of Black Widow (2.1M)

0.131x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.37M)

0.052x of Ant-Man 3 (903K)

 

I...made a big mistake, didn't I?

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	180	16243	1.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

 

Comp - T-24

0.152x of Black Widow (2.01M)

0.236x of Eternals (2.25M)

1.034x of Sonic 2 (6.46M)

0.135x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.44M)

0.201x of Avatar: The Way of Water (3.41M)

0.054x of Ant-Man 3 (945K)

[Ronin46]

4 good updates from Eric, and then there is Shazam. I mean WTF!!!!! 

 

[Goldenhour36]

5 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

4 good updates from Eric, and then there is Shazam. I mean WTF!!!!! 

 

 

Would Morbius be a good comp as they both could have similar openings?

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Goldenhour36 said:

 

Would Morbius be a good comp as they both could have similar openings?

 

Doesn't start until T-17.

[Porthos]

26 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

4 good updates from Eric, and then there is Shazam. I mean WTF!!!!! 

 

 

I'm.....

 

...

 

Hmmm.

 

I'm not quite willing to say that.  Just yet.

 

I mean, Prrrooooooobably. But.... Just not quite yet willing to commit.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I'm.....

 

...

 

Hmmm.

 

I'm not quite willing to say that.  Just yet.

 

I mean, Prrrooooooobably. But.... Just not quite yet willing to commit.

 

Okay, I've been tracking this on the down-low in Sacto, as threatened (it only takes me about 15 min or so, so why not?), and I have to say this is shaping up to be the oddest film I have kept an eye on since... Man, I dunno?  Hobbs and Shaw???   That was one weird duck, let me tell you.  Completely failed to play like an action-adventure flick when it came to pre-sales, yet still managed to claw its ass to $5.8m in previews.

 

For some reason I keep getting H&S flashbacks while I look at this film.  Here's its sale pattern so far, including tonight:

 

Shazam 2
T-28:	118
T-27:	47
T-26:	41
T-25:	14
T-24:	35

 

I really don't know what to make of it, honestly.  Can't even really compare it to films like Sonic 2 yet, as that just started.  Most of the smaller films I've tracked recently haven't even started yet, so I can't compare it to them, either.  Not yet at least.

 

Is kinda/sorta performing like Scream VI, if from a smaller start, which is all sorts of odd:

 

Scream VI
T-29:	213
T-28:	31
T-27:	33
T-26:	27
T-25:	29
T-24:	4

 

Like, it's making finding a good comp for Shazam! 2 all sorts of impossible.  If it is gonna have a sale pattern like a CBM, then it's Dead On Arrival.

 

I'm just not completely convinced it is gonna have one.  Doesn't mean I know what sale pattern it will have though.

Edited February 21, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 2/20/2023 at 12:09 AM, Porthos said:

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	67	7261	7735	474	6.13%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

8

 

T-18  Comp

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	126.74		34	374		0/74	11074/11448	3.27%		3951	12.00%		7.92m
Nope	184.44		4	257		0/84	13438/13695	1.88%		3822	12.40%		11.80m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:         91/2624  [3.47% sold]
Matinee:       40/687  [5.82% | 8.44% of all tickets sold]
3D:            182/2551  [7.13% | 38.40% of all tickets sold]

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	68	7399	7889	490	6.21%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	154
Total Seats Sold Today	16

 

T-17  Comp

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Morbius	133.51		367	367		0/124	17244/17611	2.08%		3477	14.09%		7.61m
Sonic 2	126.61		13	387		0/76	11279/11666	3.32%		3951	12.40%		7.91m
Nope	180.15		15	272		0/84	13423/13695	1.99%		3822	12.82%		11.53m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:         97/2624  [3.70% sold]
Matinee:       42/687  [6.11% | 8.57% of all tickets sold]
3D:            190/2551  [7.45% | 38.78% of all tickets sold]

Edited February 22, 2023 by Porthos

[misterpepp]

Regarding Jesus Revolution, it should be noted that Lionsgate was giving out a lot of free tickets for those Early Access shows, which is possibly why they're as packed as they are. They might not be as indicative of how the movie will play out over the weekend, or what audience interest in general might be in the title, as they might seem (although I'm sure the following weekend showtimes prove that already).

Edited February 21, 2023 by datpepper

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 hour ago, Ronin46 said:

4 good updates from Eric, and then there is Shazam. I mean WTF!!!!!