The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, joselowe said:

Are these numbers for Little Mermaid good or bad or so-so? I expected it to have picked up steam by now but it seems to be the same levels as last week.

Very good I would say. Based on comps, I feel pretty confident in $100M+ OW which is a win 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid MTC1

Wednesday - 13000/35113 280224.52 154 shows

Previews(T-10) - 43319/911893 753714.79 5564 shows +2522

Friday - 43892/1036803 733174.58 5718 shows

 

Good news is that its accelerating compared to last week post reactions boost. Friday pace is much better than previews and is already ahead. So bodes well for at least 8x multi.   

Mermaid MTC1

Wednesday - 13665/35113 293928.79 154 shows

Previews(T-) - 46173/911348 800671.75 5563 shows +2854

Friday - 48061/1037055 798908.73 5716 shows +4169

 

Slowly moving up. 

 

Comps Previews (T-9)

A2 - 95281 for preview

TGM - 64101 for previews (and almost 40K for early shows)

JWD - 73833

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spider-man across the spiderverse MTC1 Previews - 67483/734962 1216515.85 3913 shows  // +1898 over past day

 

This is the steady state period for a while until we get reactions/reviews boost. 

Spider-man across the spiderverse MTC1 Previews(T-16) - 69679/735087 1252781.51 3916 shows  //+2196

 

 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fast X MTC1 Previews (T-3) - 57338/682322 1008424.06 3645 shows +7749

 

At last it had a big spurt of shows and more important sales increased to reasonable levels. Now I am reasonably sure its beating previews of F9 and will open slightly bigger as well. 

Fast X MTC1 Previews (T-2) - 66134/794437 1153310.00 4456 shows +8796

 

Edited May 17, 2023 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

On a serious note it seemed to behave as @M37 expected. yesterday it benefited after a Mother's day. Just 10% bump aint that good. Let us see how things go tomorrow. It added lot more shows for Friday than Thursday previews. I will add Friday number tomorrow morning. 

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fast X MTC1 Previews (T-2) - 66134/794437 1153310.00 4456 shows +8796

 

Seems like 125-130K final. That should be good for $7.5-8M

[screambaby]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Seems like 125-130K final. That should be good for $7.5-8M

So about a 70 million opening weekend on a 340 million budget

 

 

Bombs away...

[Grebacio]

55 minutes ago, screambaby said:

So about a 70 million opening weekend on a 340 million budget

 

 

Bombs away...

North America isn't the only market

[screambaby]

2 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

North America isn't the only market

 and what's OS like? 

Even if it's not a total flop it's not gonna are much of a profit 

 

[Alexander]

1 hour ago, screambaby said:

 and what's OS like? 

Even if it's not a total flop it's not gonna are much of a profit 

 

Yeah, I think this could bomb in many markets. Looking at our local theater Fast X sold just 22 tickets out of 3000-3100 or so available. And those are only for Friday + Saturday. Wouldn't surprise me if in most markets it opens 70-90% of F9 and then totally falls apart on tuesday / wednesday.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	123	18177	19919	1742	8.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

60

 

T-17 Comps:

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	107.60		69	1619		0/96	13922/15541	10.42%		6409	27.18%		11.56m
JWD	78.68		48	2214		0/188	22929/25143	8.81%		10966	15.89%		14.16m
BA	238.96		126	729		0/146	21338/22067	3.30%		4494	38.76%		18.16m
A2	69.46		96	2508		0/142	18830/21338	11.75%		8986	19.39%		11.81m
Wick 4	179.77		93	969		0/88	12361/13330	7.27%		5448	31.98%		16.00m
GOTG3	50.74		73	3433		0/206	26211/29644	11.58%		8363	20.83%		8.88m
TLM	142.09		66	1226		0/153	21353/22579	1.08%		????	????		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:       211/5583  [3.78% sold]
Matinee:    99/2373  [4.17% | 5.68% of all tickets sold]
-----
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.18764x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-17 [16.39m]    
AtSV = 0.77746x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-17 [20.56m]    
AtSV = 1.84462x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-17 [18.03m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	123	18098	19919	1821	9.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

79

 

T-16 Comps:

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	103.70		137	1756		0/96	13774/15530	11.31%		6409	28.41%		11.14m
JWD	78.29		112	2326		0/190	22988/25314	9.19%		10966	16.61%		14.09m
BA	231.09		59	788		0/146	21279/22067	3.57%		4494	40.52%		17.56m
A2	69.88		98	2606		0/142	18732/21338	12.21%		8986	20.26%		11.88m
Wick 4	178.01		54	1023		0/88	12307/13330	7.67%		5448	33.43%		15.84m
GOTG3	52.36		45	3478		0/203	25617/29095	11.95%		8363	21.77%		9.16m
TLM	135.49		118	1344		0/154	21376/22720	1.08%		????	????		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:       222/5583  [3.98% sold]
Matinee:    102/2373  [4.30% | 5.60% of all tickets sold]
------
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.185x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-16   [16.35m]    
AtSV = 0.76x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-16     [20.10m]    
AtSV = 1.59249x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-16 [15.57m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	20609	22614	2005	8.87%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	107
Total Seats Sold Today	142

 

T-10 Comps:

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	309.41		36	648		0/89	11792/12440	5.21%		3951	50.75%		19.34m
JWD	62.93		192	3186		0/191	22186/25372	12.56%		10966	18.28%		11.33m
BA	178.86		47	1121		0/148	21302/22423	5.00%		4494	44.62%		13.59m
Scream VI	248.14		46	808		0/77	8931/9739	8.30%		3134	63.98%		14.14m
Wick 4	144.04		59	1392		0/95	12399/13791	10.09%		5448	36.80%		12.82m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:       307/5603  [5.48% sold]
Matinee:        69/621  [11.11% | 3.44% of all tickets sold]
3D:            225/3948  [5.70% | 11.22% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.93862x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [15.61m]    
TLM = 1.02691x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [14.17m]    
TLM = 0.59173x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [15.65m]    
TLM = 1.0571x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [10.33m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	165	21370	23500	2130	9.06%

 

Total Showings Added Today	12
Total Seats Added Today	886
Total Seats Sold Today	125

 

T-9 Comps:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	328.70		36	648		0/89	11792/12440	5.21%		3951	53.91%		20.54m
JWD	66.85		192	3186		0/191	22186/25372	12.56%		10966	19.42%		12.03m
BA	190.01		47	1121		0/148	21302/22423	5.00%		4494	47.40%		14.44m
Scream VI	263.61		46	808		0/77	8931/9739	8.30%		3134	67.96%		15.03m
Wick 4	159.79		49	1333		0/95	12458/13791	9.67%		5448	39.10%		14.22m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:         321/5603  [5.73% sold]
Matinee:          73/621  [11.76% | 3.43% of all tickets sold]
3D:             240/3948  [6.08% | 11.27% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.90811x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-9 [15.36m]    
TLM = 1.04497x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-9      [14.42m]    
TLM = 0.57837x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-9      [15.30m]    
TLM = 1.04323x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-9         [10.20m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

Edited May 17, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	228	30813	32869	2056	6.26%

 

Total Showings Added Today	49
Total Seats Added Today	4725
Total Seats Sold Today	262

 

T-3 Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	109.30		178	1881		0/157	21272/23153	8.12%		3737	55.02%		6.78m
Bats	30.37		748	6769		0/324	31752/38521	17.57%		11757	17.49%		6.56m
TG:M	26.52		624	7754		1/324	33685/41439	18.71%		11474	17.92%		5.24m
JWD	33.91		795	6063		0/281	26773/32836	18.46%		10966	18.75%		6.10m
BA	94.66		286	2172		0/223	27742/29914	7.26%		4494	45.75%		7.19m
Wick 4	77.67		342	2647		0/152	16697/19344	13.68%		5448	37.74%		6.91m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-3 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	95.73		257	2063		0/122	15198/17261	11.95%		4407	46.65%		7.80m
Fast X (adj)			246	1975		0/210	27531/29506	6.69%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     393/13283  [2.96% sold]
Matinee:    99/4659  [2.12% | 4.82% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Have to agree with other trackers I've seen tonight; looks like Fast X is recovering.  Not breaking out, no.  But recovering is a damn sight better than it looked over the weekend.

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	235	30517	32900	2383	7.24%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	7
Total Net Seats Added Today	31
Total Seats Sold Today	327

 

T-2 Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	106.86		349	2230		0/176	22255/24485	9.11%		3737	63.77%		6.63m
Bats	30.10		1149	7918		0/326	30853/38771	20.42%		11757	20.27%		6.50m
TG:M	27.36		957	8711		2/344	34293/43004	20.26%		11474	20.77%		5.41m
JWD	34.74		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	21.73%		6.25m
BA	92.76		397	2569		0/232	28250/30819	8.34%		4494	53.03%		7.05m
Wick 4	74.49		552	3199		0/166	17433/20632	15.51%		5448	43.74%		6.63m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-2 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	92.56		397	2460		0/143	15720/18180	13.53%		4407	54.07%		7.54m
Fast X (adj)			302	2277		0/217	27260/29537	7.71%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:       502/12719  [3.95% sold]
Matinee:    127/4494  [2.83% | 5.33% of all tickets sold]

 

========

 

 

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric Toretto said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	119	1402	23242	6.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 214

 

Comp - T-3

0.866x of F9 (6.15M)

0.451x of Jurassic World 3 (8.11M)

1.484x of Nope (9.49M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	184	1680	32449	5.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 278

 

Comp - T-2

0.867x of F9 (6.15M)

0.480x of Jurassic World 3 (8.64M)

1.339x of Nope (8.57M)

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric Toretto said:

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	1878	28586	6.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 165

 

Comp - T-10

2.957x of Sonic 2 (18.48M)

0.965x of Jurassic World 3 (17.38M)

2.321x of Black Adam (17.64M)

0.857x of Avatar 2 (14.56M)

0.904x of Mario (28.66M)

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	2004	28586	7.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 126

 

Comp - T-9

2.987x of Sonic 2 (18.67M)

0.993x of Jurassic World 3 (17.88M)

2.341x of Black Adam (17.79M)
0.862x of Avatar 2 (14.65M)

0.906x of Mario (28.72M)

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric Toretto said:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	123	1524	23838	6.39%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 66

 

Comp - T-17

3.425x of Sonic 2 (21.4M)

0.166x of Doctor Strange 2 (5.97M)

1.004x of Jurassic World 3 (18.07M)

0.311x of Thor 4 (9.02M)

0.239x of Black Panther 2 (6.68M)

0.945x of Avatar 2 (16.07M)

0.388x of Ant-Man 3 (6.8M)

1.049x of Mario (33.25M)

0.499x of Guardians 3 (8.73M)

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	123	1567	23838	6.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 43

 

Comp - T-16

3.363x of Sonic 2 (21.02M)

0.999x of Jurassic World 3 (17.98M)

0.309x of Thor 4 (8.97M)

0.927x of Avatar 2 (15.76M)

0.392x of Ant-Man 3 (6.86M)

1.026x of Mario (32.53M)

0.500x of Guardians 3 (8.75M)

[keysersoze123]

Fast X MTC1 Friday - 65866/1144891 1153130.24 6430 shows

 

Friday growth was much better. It sold more than 13.5K tickets yesterday. Definitely opening above last one. 

[charlie Jatinder]

51 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fast X MTC1 Friday - 65866/1144891 1153130.24 6430 shows

 

Friday growth was much better. It sold more than 13.5K tickets yesterday. Definitely opening above last one. 

THU 77% of John Wick, FRI 74%

[keysersoze123]

29 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

THU 77% of John Wick, FRI 74%

Core audience of these movies tend to lead to higher walkups. F9 almost doubled final day from 67K T-1 to 131K finish. Plus internal multi did much better than what we anticipated before the weekend started. we will probably see something similar unless reviews are terrible.

[Flamengo81]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	235	30517	32900	2383	7.24%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	7
Total Net Seats Added Today	31
Total Seats Sold Today	327

 

T-2 Unadjusted Comps:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	106.86		349	2230		0/176	22255/24485	9.11%		3737	63.77%		6.63m
Bats	30.10		1149	7918		0/326	30853/38771	20.42%		11757	20.27%		6.50m
TG:M	27.36		957	8711		2/344	34293/43004	20.26%		11474	20.77%		5.41m
JWD	34.74		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	21.73%		6.25m
BA	92.76		397	2569		0/232	28250/30819	8.34%		4494	53.03%		7.05m
Wick 4	74.49		552	3199		0/166	17433/20632	15.51%		5448	43.74%		6.63m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-2 Adjusted Comp:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	92.56		397	2460		0/143	15720/18180	13.53%		4407	54.07%		7.54m
Fast X (adj)			302	2277		0/217	27260/29537	7.71%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Fast X (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

F9 COMP NOTE:  The F9 comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, as explained in this post.

 

Regal:       502/12719  [3.95% sold]
Matinee:    127/4494  [2.83% | 5.33% of all tickets sold]

 

========

 

 

Did F9 underindexed in Sacramento?