The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/20/2023 at 4:21 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

THURSDAY

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
121	3448	26292	13.1%

*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

113

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-12

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.637x) ~$11.1M THUR

 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

THURSDAY

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
121	3581	26292	13.6%

*Numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

133

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

 

COMPS

T-11

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.636x) ~$11.1M THUR

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	3632	32751	11.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

252

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

*This is probably overindexing by a bit because of Disney influence

 

 

COMPS

T-5

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.486x) ~$8.5M THUR

 

JOHN WICK 4

(2.133x) ~$18.9M THUR

 

Average: $13.7M THUR 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	3825	32751	11.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

193

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

*This is probably overindexing by a bit because of Disney influence

 

 

COMPS

T-4

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.495x) ~$8.7M THUR

 

JOHN WICK 4

(2.164x) ~$19.3M THUR

 

Average: $14M THUR 

[John Marston]

John Wick 4 is a strange comparison for TLM

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/20/2023 at 3:00 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Little Mermaid Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

192

3215

5.97%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

156

2071

7.53%

 

Wednesday: 315(+8)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1080	178	25435	4.25%	13	153

 

0.341x Avatar 2 T-5 (5.80M)

0.976x Shang-Chi T-5 (8.59M)

The Little Mermaid Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

209

3215

6.50%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

176

2071

8.50%

 

Wednesday: 329(+14)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1174	94	23770	4.94%	13	153

 

0.346x Avatar 2 T-4 (5.88M)

0.442x JW Dominion T-4 (7.95M)

0.984x Shang-Chi T-4 (8.66M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/20/2023 at 3:04 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Little Mermaid Alamo Drafthouse[+2 days of sales]

 

T-4 Wednesday	3 Showings	301	+14	321
T-5 Thursday	160 Showings	5333	+794	23378	ATP:	16.42

0.823

Avatar 2 T-5

14.00M

 

T-6 Friday

216 Showings

7829

+1260

32882

ATP:

15.73

0.881

Avatar 2 T-6

31.91M

 

T-7 Saturday

222 Showings

7537

+948

33371

0.762

Avatar 2 T-7

33.80M

 

T-8 Sunday

203 Showings

5129

+659

30696

0.824

Avatar 2 T-8

30.15M

The Little Mermaid Alamo Drafthouse

 

 

T-3 Wednesday	3 Showings	302	+14	321
T-4 Thursday	155 Showings	5818	+485	22706	ATP:	16.43

0.832	Avatar 2 T-4	14.14M
0.786	JW Dominion T-4	14.14M
1.956	Ghostbusters T-4	8.80M

 

T-5 Friday

212 Showings

8565

+736

32289

ATP:

15.71

0.888	Avatar 2 T-5	32.13M
1.038	JW Dominion T-5	43.16M
2.942	Ghostbusters T-5	35.75M

 

T-6 Saturday

222 Showings

8258

+721

33236

0.772	Avatar 2 T-6	34.22M
1.022	JW Dominion T-6	47.93M
2.676	Ghostbusters T-6	43.99M

 

T-7 Sunday

203 Showings

5592

+463

30662

0.797	Avatar 2 T-7	29.15M
1.269	JW Dominion T-7	49.00M
3.662	Ghostbusters T-7	39.98M

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/20/2023 at 3:09 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Across the Spider-Verse Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

380

3200

11.88%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

302

1875

16.11%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1699	139	24661	6.89%	13	125

 

0.344x Thor L&T T-12 (9.97M)

Across the Spider-Verse Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

396

3198

12.38%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

315

1875

16.80%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1792	93	23108	7.75%	13	125

 

0.520x Ant-Man 3 T-11 (9.10M)

0.355x Thor L&T T-11 (10.29M)

0.479x Batman T-11 (10.34M)

1.19x Eternals T-11 (11.27M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/20/2023 at 3:12 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Across the Spider-Verse Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

 

T-12 Thursday

133 Showings

4638

+364

20758

ATP:

16.01

0.382

Thor L&T T-12

11.08M

 

T-13 Friday

177 Showings

4116

+527

29030

ATP:

16.06

0.416

Thor L&T T-13

16.87M

 

T-14 Saturday

169 Showings

4152

+384

28005

0.448

Thor L&T T-14

18.87M

 

T-15 Sunday

153 Showings

2355

+289

25326

0.465

Thor L&T T-15

15.11M

Across the Spider-Verse Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-11 Thursday

129 Showings

4733

+95

20198

ATP:

16.04

0.460	Ant-Man 3 T-11	8.05M
0.383	Thor L&T T-11	11.11M

0.531

Batman Thurs only T-11

9.35M

0.987

Eternals T-11

9.37M

 

T-12 Friday

173 Showings

4325

+209

28470

ATP:

16.05

0.482	Ant-Man 3 T-12	13.94M
0.425	Thor L&T T-12	17.23M

0.487

Batman T-12

17.04M

1.020

Eternals T-12

21.77M

 

T-13 Saturday

165 Showings

4348

+196

27445

0.561	Ant-Man 3 T-13	19.02M
0.450	Thor L&T T-13	18.95M

0.516

Batman T-13

22.31M

1.008

Eternals T-13

24.32M

 

T-14 Sunday

149 Showings

2475

+120

24766

0.586	Ant-Man 3 T-14	15.10M
0.468	Thor L&T T-14	15.21M

0.701

Batman T-14

23.92M

0.991

Eternals T-14

16.18M

[Eric Prime]

11 hours ago, Eric Toretto said:

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	2636	28586	9.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 180

 

Comp - T-5

2.572x of Sonic 2 (16.07M)

1.054x of Jurassic World 3 (18.98M)

2.119x of Black Adam (16.1M)

0.872x of Avatar 2 (14.83M)

0.727x of Mario (23.07M)

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	2851	28586	9.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 215

 

Comp - T-4

2.453x of Sonic 2 (15.33M)

1.049x of Jurassic World 3 (18.89M)

2.048x of Black Adam (15.56M)

0.861x of Avatar 2 (14.63M)

0.661x of Mario (20.95M)

[grey ghost]

4 hours ago, John Marston said:

John Wick 4 is a strange comparison for TLM

 

Their enemies both sleep with the fishes. 

[Eric Prime]

11 hours ago, Eric Toretto said:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	123	1819	23838	7.63%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 78

 

Comp - T-12

3.152x of Sonic 2 (19.7M)

0.992x of Jurassic World 3 (17.85M)

0.312x of Thor 4 (9.06M)

2.533x of Black Adam (19.25M)

0.902x of Avatar 2 (15.34M)

0.419x of Ant-Man 3 (7.33M)

0.995x of Mario (31.55M)

0.552x of Guardians 3 (9.66M)

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	123	1867	23838	7.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 48

 

Comp - T-11

3.051x of Sonic 2 (19.07M)

1.007x of Jurassic World 3 (18.13M)

0.314x of Thor 4 (9.1M)

2.447x of Black Adam (18.6M)

0.883x of Avatar 2 (15.01M)

0.422x of Ant-Man 3 (7.39M)

0.963x of Mario (30.54M)

0.556x of Guardians 3 (9.73M)

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spider-man across the Spiderverse MTC1 Previews(T-12) - 79839/738557 1429221.23 3934 shows // +2316

 

Saturdays tend to slow down. Let us hope we see some acceleration next week.  

Spider-man across the Spiderverse MTC1 Previews(T-11) - 82610/738713 1474427.46 // +2771

 

Hopefully it starts to accelerate next week and be around 110K by sunday. 

[Porthos]

-duplicated post for some reason-

Edited May 22, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

6 hours ago, John Marston said:

John Wick 4 is a strange comparison for TLM

 

While not ideal, not as strange as one might think. For one, the two genres involved have a fairly similar pre-sale pattern, at least compared to something like a standard MCU film.  Both films, also, should have had something of a fan rush for their genre.  

 

The biggest problem is demos and the difference between a R rated film with strong 20-49 appeal and a PG film geared toward families.  On the other hand, TLM has both 3D showings and Early Access showings, which will both boost the ATP for previews, though to what degree is still unknown.

 

So, sure it is a strange comp.  But when one is starting out, as @TheFlatLannister is, beggars can't be choosers when it comes to comps.  Hell even though I have many more comps than they do, I roped it in as well, if more for ticket pace comparisons than anything else.

 

(note: many, though not nearly all, of these same points also go to why Scream VI isn't the worst comp in the world as well)

 

To put all of this another way, there aren't many recent good comps for TLM, as the natural comps either had widely different pre-sale lengths or had far less upfront initial interest.  As we enter the last few days, those comps become better and the Wick 4's and the Scream 6's of the world, much less so.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid

MTC1 

Wednesday - 15969/34974 343169.39 153 shows +695

Previews(T-5) - 61229/918650 1050194.73 5606 shows +4173

Friday - 72481/1040087 1189629.95 5743 shows +7951

 

MTC2

Wednesday - 2906/19085 47034.75 101 shows +160

Thu - 39916/459345 580078.85 3019 shows +3121

 

Definite acceleration. 

  

 

 

Mermaid

MTC1 

Wednesday - 16623/34974 356404.07 153 shows +654

Previews(T-4) - 67189/919974 1146903.83 5615 shows +5960

Friday - 81668/1041293 1333447.74 5758 shows +9187

 

MTC2

Wednesday - 3147/19107 50882.25 101 shows +241

Thu - 42925/460648 622060.35 3027 shows +3009

 

 

Definitely accelerated at MTC1 today. But pace is still off from 100m+ blockbuster openers. But tomorrow is the big day with the reviews out and final week surge also goes up. If I have to guess I would say 1.2m wednesday and 11m thursday based on current numbers and pace. I am thinking 180kish finish for now at MTC1.  But we will get better perspective tomorrow for sure. 

Edited May 22, 2023 by keysersoze123

[interiorgatordecorator]

On 5/19/2023 at 12:26 PM, Eric Toretto said:

 And during the 07 strike, some talk shows did go on the air despite the picketing. They just went completely unscripted with the hosts improvising everything they said and did the entire time, since it wasn't actually written by a writer.....forcing even the best comedians to do one hour of material with nothing but whatever comes to their head doesn't really lead to good television.

 

seems interesting (unscripted talk shows), know any specific examples for me to google?

[interiorgatordecorator]

11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Elemental MTC1

Previews - 2859/301719 44379.23 2109 shows +219

Friday - 2485/479191 36472.47 3214 shows +125

 

3 days of presales for previews and 4 days for Friday. If it were for a small market it wouldn't be bad. But this is across the country at the biggest MTC. It would be cheaper to refund and change the date than let it implode.  

 

I know what pre-sales are and what purchasing habits are like these days, but I'm still a tiny bit intrigued by it

 

I wonder what the type of person who buys tickets for a movie like Elemental a month out is like

Not judging, in any way, I'm just confused by the existence of people like that, (over 30k of them, maybe even 50k)

 

 

Edited May 22, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	129	18632	20786	2154	10.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

85

 

T-12 Comps:

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	99.86		71	2157		0/96	13384/15541	13.88%		6409	33.61%		10.72m
JWD	76.60		105	2812		0/191	22562/25374	11.08%		10966	19.64%		13.79m
BA	209.13		55	1030		0/146	21037/22067	4.67%		4494	47.93%		15.89m
A2	68.73		187	3134		0/145	18350/21484	14.59%		8986	23.97%		11.68m
Wick 4	167.76		53	1284		0/90	12301/13585	9.45%		5448	39.54%		14.93m
GOTG3	57.10		95	3772		0/203	25282/29054	12.98%		8363	25.76%		9.99m
TLM	124.22		110	1734		0/154	20987/22721	1.08%		????	????		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:       288/6453  [4.46% sold]
Matinee:    129/2663  [4.84% | 5.99% of all tickets sold]
------
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.21328x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-12 [16.74m]    
AtSV = 0.73328x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-12 [19.40m]    
AtSV = 1.26074x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-12 [12.32m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

Across the Spider-Verse Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	129	18539	20786	2247	10.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

93

 

T-11 Comps:

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	100.31		83	2240		0/96	13301/15541	14.41%		6409	35.06%		10.77m
JWD	75.05		182	2994		0/191	22380/25374	11.80%		10966	20.49%		13.51m
BA	209.22		44	1074		0/146	20993/22067	4.87%		4494	50.00%		15.90m
A2	67.86		177	3311		0/145	18173/21484	15.41%		8986	25.01%		11.54m
Wick 4	168.57		49	1333		0/95	12458/13791	9.67%		5448	41.24%		15.00m
GOTG3	57.87		111	3883		0/203	25171/29054	13.36%		8363	26.87%		10.13m
TLM	120.61		129	1863		0/154	20858/22721	1.08%		????	????		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of AtSV's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ET COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x to reflect the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     309/6453  [4.79% sold]
Matinee:    135/2663  [5.07% | 6.01% of all tickets sold]
-----   
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
AtSV = 1.20128x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-11 [16.58m]    
AtSV = 0.71568x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-11 [18.93m]    
AtSV = 1.25073x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-11    [12.23m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

[Porthos]

On 5/21/2023 at 1:31 AM, Porthos said:

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	175	22324	25021	2697	10.78%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	471
Total Seats Sold Today	124

 

T-5 Comps:

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	226.83		145	1189		0/92	11748/12937	9.19%		3951	68.26%		14.18m
JWD	58.39		449	4619		0/224	23313/27932	16.54%		10966	24.59%		10.51m
BA	161.50		149	1670		0/169	22641/24311	6.87%		4494	60.01%		12.27m
Scream VI	235.14		75	1147		0/77	8600/9747	11.77%		3134	86.06%		13.40m
Wick 4	130.67		166	2064		0/118	14480/16544	12.48%		5448	49.50%		11.63m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:       417/5605  [7.44% sold]
Matinee:     100/704  [14.20% | 3.71% of all tickets sold]
3D:            310/3948  [7.85% | 11.49% of all tickets sold]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.87943x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-5 [15.13m]    
TLM = 0.9992x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-5         [13.79m]    
TLM = 0.53808x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-5       [14.23m]    
TLM = 1.02098x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-5          [9.98m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	177	22304	25359	3055	12.05%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	338
Total Seats Sold Today	358

 

T-4 Comps:

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	224.47		172	1361		0/92	11557/12918	10.54%		3951	77.32%		14.03m
JWD	57.99		649	5268		0/224	22664/27932	18.86%		10966	27.86%		10.44m
BA	161.98		216	1886		0/169	22425/24311	7.76%		4494	67.98%		12.31m
Scream VI	242.08		115	1262		0/78	8602/9864	12.79%		3134	97.48%		13.80m
Wick 4	132.54		241	2305		0/119	14274/16579	13.90%		5448	56.08%		11.80m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:       449/5857  [7.67% sold]
Matinee:      104/704  [14.77% | 3.40% of all tickets sold]
3D:            333/4200  [7.93% | 10.90% of all tickets sold]
———    
Wed:       264/1516  [17.41% sold] [+38 tickets]
Thr:    2791/23843  [11.71% sold] [+320 tickets]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.9567x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-4 [15.75m]    
TLM = 1.023x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-4         [14.12m]    
TLM = 0.55551x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-4     [14.69m]    
TLM = 1.0383x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-4         [10.15m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

========

 

Couple of notes.

 

Probably should have been doing this all along, but it's finally starting to matter so I'm now providing information on the Wed/Thr splits.  Still plenty of room for EA showings, but they're starting to accelerate so I think it's useful to provide that data.

 

Second note:  The total seats sold was inflated by a 100+ group seat sale at one of the local IMAX showings.  In fact, I'm reasonably sure that IMAX showing was added by request, as it just popped up in the last day or so, had zero tickets until 106 were sold for it tonight, in obvious blocked out fashion.

 

On the one hand, this does inflate ticket sales.  On the other hand, blockbusters of a certain size routine get a smattering of group sales so that TLM is getting a couple (it had a prior one of about 30+ tickets a few days ago) also says something. 

 

So messes with the daily pace a bit, but it's still important info in and of itself.

Edited May 22, 2023 by Porthos

[M37]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	338
Total Seats Sold Today	358

It looks like you accidentally left off the top box with this update, so confirming total sales stands at 3,055 right?

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

It looks like you accidentally left off the top box with this update, so confirming total sales stands at 3,055 right?

 

I have no idea what you are talking about.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ooopsie doodles.

 

Fixed.

 

(and yes)