The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[CJohn]

24 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

Hopefully lowballing. 

[Brainbug]

9 minutes ago, Bigscrubnus said:

Didn’t Shaun say he expecting 155-160 to be the floor? 

 

Shawn also doesnt need to lowball the numbers in order to generate more positive headlines 😅

[motionpic05]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Would that be a bad debut?

[Brainbug]

Just now, motionpic05 said:

Would that be a bad debut?

 

Yes it would mean i die.

[ky02121]

1 minute ago, motionpic05 said:

Would that be a bad debut?

Extremely bad 

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Yes it would mean i die.

It would put the weekend thread on track for 5.000 pages before your death tho. Maybe you are a worthy sacrifice...

[M37]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

The other major variable, and one that won't be solved just waiting until day of release, is ATP.  Gonna be a lot more kids tickets sold for this, even if it isn't a true Toy Story installment.  That and the dearth of PLF (it really is hurting in that department) is gonna skew the price-per-ticket down and muck with the comps a bit, especially ones that had a lot of EA.

Agreed, but on the flip side, Shangi-Chi was prior to the premium ticket hikes, so will off-set lack of PLF somewhat 

 

Again, not claiming it’s a perfect match, but could provide at least a workable baseline on which one can estimate adjustment for ATP and other factors 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

It would put the weekend thread on track for 5.000 pages before your death tho. Maybe you are a worthy sacrifice...

 

[Shawn Robbins]

Trying to find out where $125M came from. Studio says merely north of $100M.

[keysersoze123]

generally studios are conservative. But if things go south in final week, movies have opened below studio projections. JOStice League comes into mind for example. 

 

That said I think 140m is the floor at this point. 

[Eric is Quiet]

6 hours ago, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

I know showtimes aren't finalized, but Lightyear is getting only one IMAX showing in the afternoon in almost every location, while Dolby is only getting about two or three in the afternoon. The Regals with PLFs don't even have Lightyear playing on IMAX or 4DX or RPX on Thursday. I'm sure they will add more if Dominion beefs it and theaters think there is more value in having it run all day, but like...man, this really shows just how much theaters need to get more IMAX/Dolby/RPX/4DX in their establishments like yesterday.

Okay so the AMCs I tracked had IMAX showings at around the 7-8PM time area earlier today, but now those shows all suddenly vanished. Which like...I'm fine if this movie shares IMAX with Jurassic World, but people were already buying tickets for those shows. That's 14-23 tickets down the drain. This is just so stupid.

[M37]

1 minute ago, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

Okay so the AMCs I tracked had IMAX showings at around the 7-8PM time area earlier today, but now those shows all suddenly vanished. Which like...I'm fine if this movie shares IMAX with Jurassic World, but people were already buying tickets for those shows. That's 14-23 tickets down the drain. This is just so stupid.

I don’t think they were supposed to have those shows on sale tbh 

 

I’m just curious what the internal discussions here are: are they looking at a matinee/evening share with JWD? Alternating (1p/7p & 4p/10p)? Maybe looking at squeezing in a TG2 show in the 4pm window?

 

Sure you want to maximize revenue, will have more clarity after this weekend, but 10 days out, isn’t it just better to make a decision and run with it? What about people who buy tickets to a regular show and later an IMAX time goes up? Will they switch, or is that potential upcharge just lost?

[Nublar7]

How did we get to $125 million now as the projection? That is really low than what most seemed to be projecting earlier.

[Tinalera]

31 minutes ago, M37 said:

I don’t think they were supposed to have those shows on sale tbh 

 

I’m just curious what the internal discussions here are: are they looking at a matinee/evening share with JWD? Alternating (1p/7p & 4p/10p)? Maybe looking at squeezing in a TG2 show in the 4pm window?

 

Sure you want to maximize revenue, will have more clarity after this weekend, but 10 days out, isn’t it just better to make a decision and run with it? What about people who buy tickets to a regular show and later an IMAX time goes up? Will they switch, or is that potential upcharge just lost?

Ive often wondered how that worked in the US. Up here because of much aforementioned by me practice of Cineplex up here, advance sales very rarely are IMAX. They tend to be Regular, maybe AVX, some very odd IMAX, and of course much less inventory. I know there are some who will buy the Avx as a placeholder, to make sure they have a "seat", then when IMAX and inventory drops on the preceding wed, Ive seen numerous change ups of a regular or Avx seat "lose" some seats and IMAX "gain" the exact number of seats. But at least its a thing that you know the IMAX type theatres won't get put up till closer to the opening day. I can't imagine how US works, unless when there's an email or txt that says "your IMAX showing has been changed to another time, would you like to keep this time, or get a credit/refund for your show?" (I really don't know if it works that way or not), I know Id be a bit torqued if my show suddenly got "lost" esp if I had a busy schedule with no way of getting another time. Especially

in the streaming age now where movies are pretty much in a limited run time at the theatre before hitting streaming.

 

EDIT as an amusing little side notewhen Cineplex does put out the IMAX, they also let out a TON of "regular seating" inventory, which studying them on the day of a showing, the regular seats just are kind of their own little empty wasteland , multiple screens of maybe a half dozen people lol

Edited June 7, 2022 by Tinalera
added

[Brainbug]

19 minutes ago, Nublar7 said:

How did we get to $125 million now as the projection? That is really low than what most seemed to be projecting earlier.

 

The studio just plays it very safe. If Dominion overperformans (160M - 200M range), they get positive headlines. If Dominion underperformans (160M down to lets say 130M), they still get positive headlines (even though every box office analyst would know that a 125M debut would be very bad)

[motionpic05]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

The studio just plays it very safe. If Dominion overperformans (160M - 200M range), they get positive headlines. If Dominion underperformans (160M down to lets say 130M), they still get positive headlines (even though every box office analyst would know that a 125M debut would be very bad)

Would a $125 million debut be that bad though? Fallen Kingdom was $135+ million. 

Obviously, it wouldn't be massive but I think it would be decent enough. 

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

Would a $125 million debut be that bad though? Fallen Kingdom was $135+ million. 

Obviously, it wouldn't be massive but I think it would be decent enough. 

 

Fallen Kingdom was 148M at 2018 ticket prices, which translates to roughly 170M in todays prices. So a debut of 125M would mean a considerable admissions decrease from Fallen Kingdom which cant be seen as a success.

 

On paper, it will make money of course and it still will be one of the years biggest hits. But the context really matters here imo.

[motionpic05]

If Dominion does well this weekend, they are in good shape.

Minions, Nope, Black Phone, Halloween Ends all could be huge hits.

[keysersoze123]

Really early numbers. 

 

Lightyear MTC1

Wed Early Shows - 834/34066 19368.50

Thu Previews - 10661/516207 192147.77

 

Its still early as PS just started today. I think previews will not be trivial for sure. 

[Bigscrubnus]

So what time should Shawn’s projection be up tomorrow?