WEEKEND THREAD: No one went to the Danger Zone :( 145M JWD, 51.8M TGM, EEAAO reaches 61 DOM

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I mean universally. Everything sucks because it didn't hit the heights of Gone With The Wind? Like I just don't get the logic.

Well, GWTW is from such a different period that I don’t know if the comparison really says much. But that seems like the goalpost moving — I’m just trying to compare a 2022 movie to a 2018, or other 21st century movies.

[Mulder]

Just now, Legion and Thunder said:

Well, GWTW is from such a different period that I don’t know if the comparison really says much. But that seems like the goalpost moving — I’m just trying to compare a 2022 movie to a 2018, or other 21st century movies.

COVID wasn't a massive monumental event?

[Yandereprime101189]

 

[Cooper Legion]

11 minutes ago, Mulder said:

COVID wasn't a massive monumental event?

Don’t think I said that anywhere.   
 

 

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Don’t think I said that anywhere.   
 

 

You said GWTW was such a different era, and I agree, but also like...every era and year is different in a sense?

EDIT: And in a bigger way, COVID fundamentally changed movies in ways we still don't fully know yet.

Edited June 12, 2022 by Mulder

[Yandereprime101189]

I forgot to mention, there were no trailers during my showing of the film, it just started the film.

[M37]

28 minutes ago, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

I'm sure I'll get lectured by people that everything is still fine and nothing will ever change, but I still have a huge nagging fear in the back of my mind that a lot of kids these days are so used to seeing new movies at home that theaters are like vinyl to them. Just some weird way to watch something they'll get at home soon. Gonna lead to some bad implications in the next couple decades.

I think the younger ones (under 10?) are really missing out on those formative theatrical views, and agree that may be forming a life-long trend, particularly for animated/family content. One often does with their own kids what their parents did with you  

 

But at least for the younger teens, between MCU, DC, JW, and a handful of others, they have (or maybe still will) had those adventures and memories, and will  recognize (even subconsciously) that they’re paying for the exclusivity (far more relevant these days) and experience. Which is why it’s a good thing that these short windows or D&D are largely proving to be mistakes  

 

I mean, movies were alway big for us growing up: starting from late 80s (yes I’m old), I’ve seen like 80% of the top 25 grossers each year … but also very few in theaters, mostly on VHS/rentals, which we wore out if we owned them. But the notable ones I explicitly recall in theaters were Jurassic Park (surprise!) and Toy Story (well, also Jason Goes to Hell, but that’s a whole other story), before it became a regular thing for me in later 90s. So there’s still time, at least for the more IP content, but the window is shrinking or even closing on animated and adult drama 

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

I think the younger ones (under 10?) are really missing out on those formative theatrical views, and agree that may be forming a life-long trend, particularly for animated/family content. One often does with their own kids what their parents did with you  

 

 

This is a good point, younger kids are not becoming fans of the theatrical experience as much anymore. There's a genuine chance an entire generation gets accustomed to theaters only for the biggest blockbuster movies that they go to with friends when they hit like middle school.

[M37]

29 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Well, GWTW is from such a different period that I don’t know if the comparison really says much. But that seems like the goalpost moving — I’m just trying to compare a 2022 movie to a 2018, or other 21st century movies.

But … you can’t, really (IMO). COVID is a MAJOR diving line, permanently altering behavior 

 

The rise in ATP is offset by a smaller audience pool, which makes the grosses somewhat comparable without adjustment. Domestic theatrical attendance has peaked IMO, it’s a new market dynamic of grabbing more $$ from fewer people 

 

NWH (w/ totals gross inflated by lack of competition and corresponding long tail) is the equivalent of Endgame in pre-COVID times, and the admit numbers are pretty far apart 

[M37]

5 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

This is a good point, younger kids are not becoming fans of the theatrical experience as much anymore. There's a genuine chance an entire generation gets accustomed to theaters only for the biggest blockbuster movies that they go to with friends when they hit like middle school.

That’s honestly what I expect, that theaters aren’t going away, but over time there will be fewer of them, far more premium screens and content. And that the pandemic only accelerated, not caused, that change

 

Like mini-theme parks (the mom&pop variety, not Disney World) that you may visit a few times a year, rather than a neighborhood staple and weekend routine 

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 minutes ago, M37 said:

But … you can’t, really (IMO). COVID is a MAJOR diving line, permanently altering behavior 

 

The rise in ATP is offset by a smaller audience pool, which makes the grosses somewhat comparable without adjustment. Domestic theatrical attendance has peaked IMO, it’s a new market dynamic of grabbing more $$ from fewer people 

 

NWH (w/ totals gross inflated by lack of competition and corresponding long tail) is the equivalent of Endgame in pre-COVID times, and the admit numbers are pretty far apart 

I'm sure the audience pool has shrunk due to Covid (and inflation etc.) but it's not really clear that it has shrunk by enough to offset the far higher ticket prices. And I don't think adjusting for inflation is some novel concept. Were people really claiming that TLK 2019 is as impressive of a run as TDK? Clearly Rogue One was a much bigger event than TPM, the nominal gross says so. 

Edited June 12, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Cooper Legion]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

But … you can’t, really (IMO). COVID is a MAJOR diving line, permanently altering behavior 

 

The rise in ATP is offset by a smaller audience pool, which makes the grosses somewhat comparable without adjustment. Domestic theatrical attendance has peaked IMO, it’s a new market dynamic of grabbing more $$ from fewer people 

 

NWH (w/ totals gross inflated by lack of competition and corresponding long tail) is the equivalent of Endgame in pre-COVID times, and the admit numbers are pretty far apart 

If covid permanently reduced admits then that’s a fine thing to argue for an adjustment for, but I personally don’t see it. NWH was not at the same level of event as Endgame and the admit difference feels about right rather than a sign of a permanently diminished market.

[grim22]

4 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I mean were people really claiming that TLK 2019 is as impressive of a run as TDK? I mean clearly Rogue One was a much bigger event than TPM, the nominal gross says so. 

Alexa, show me false equivalencies.

[Cooper Legion]

To some extent I would say that the secular trend from 2002-2019 was fewer people higher prices, and covid may have accelerated that a little. But a modest admit fall in 4 years is still a modest admit fall in 4 years — not good.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Alexa, show me false equivalencies.

Don't see anything false about them. All the arguments being made about why films should be given a Covid adjustment could also be made for the rise of streaming, the proliferation of more entertainment options, and all sorts of processes that occurred during 2000-2020. If you want to do that, then fine, but I think inflation does matter. It's not the only thing that matters, and should be taken into context, but I still think the fact that this movie is dropping in admissions from the last film is quite important. 

Edited June 12, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Cooper Legion]

20 minutes ago, grim22 said:

There's a genuine chance an entire generation gets accustomed to theaters only for the biggest blockbuster movies that they go to with friends when they hit like middle school.

Feel like this already happened? To a large extent.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Yeah, the Lightyear sales are not promising here. I was expecting a 90/330-esque run but...

 

I agree with the argument Disney+ will have a major factor on Pixar. Also, I've always been reluctant about the entire idea of this movie. Pixar could turn any original concept into a blockbuster, but not only does this lack an original concept, it's yet ANOTHER needless sequel, etc. So it'll have even less excitement and event status. 

[M37]

1 minute ago, Menor Reborn said:

I'm sure the audience pool has shrunk due to Covid (and inflation etc.) but it's not really clear that it has shrunk by enough to offset the far higher ticket prices. And I don't think adjusting for inflation is some novel concept. I mean were people really claiming that TLK 2019 is as impressive of a run as TDK? 

I’m not saying you can’t make those adjustments, only that it’s not strictly the same as adjusting for ATP from 2014-2018 when overall market conditions were largely static 

 

As far as it not being clear, I agree, but there are some signs, like the general lack of holding power over the last year, expect for films that teenagers would watch repeatedly (SC, NWH, Uncharted), and films with great WOM that would pull in people who otherwise may have stayed home (TG2, Lost City to a degree). The “let’s go see what’s playing” GA is weaker, the routine has been broken

 

The big test is going to be the next month, when we have the most normal calendar since pandemic - is there enough audience to open and hold these back to back titles like “normal”? I’m not so sure 

[Cooper Legion]

It’s tough to evaluate for sure. The market depth has never recovered, but is that a demand issue or a supply issue? There is definitely a supply issue driving it so how would we even tell if there was also a demand one driving it?   
 

My subjective sense is that event blockbusters (NWH, TGM) can pull similar admits as they would have in pre-covid times, and if non event blockbusters can’t then it’s still fine to criticize them on admits grounds because the very fact that they’re paying the “covid penalty” reflects a failure to become an event blockbuster (Batman, DS2, JWD all in this category imo).

Edited June 12, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

I’m not saying you can’t make those adjustments, only that it’s not strictly the same as adjusting for ATP from 2014-2018 when overall market conditions were largely static 

 

As far as it not being clear, I agree, but there are some signs, like the general lack of holding power over the last year, expect for films that teenagers would watch repeatedly (SC, NWH, Uncharted), and films with great WOM that would pull in people who otherwise may have stayed home (TG2, Lost City to a degree). The “let’s go see what’s playing” GA is weaker, the routine has been broken

 

The big test is going to be the next month, when we have the most normal calendar since pandemic - is there enough audience to open and hold these back to back titles like “normal”? I’m not so sure 

Your points are all fair for smaller movies, but I think for something like a Jurassic movie, I don't find them as convincing. These movies are not very reliant on the "let's see what's playing" crowd.