Fullbuster Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 5 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: Preliminary numbers are worse than estimates (once more) ... another "might-have" weekend which ends up behind hopes (and last year's of course). There's still some buns in the oven but I fear this won't be a pretty year. Ouch Let's hope that FB and Rogue One will limit the damages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted September 26, 2016 Author Share Posted September 26, 2016 The biggest damage-limiter should be Dory - MarkG has pegged it at 7mil total in his 2016 prognosis ... a number that's optimistic but doable if the movie delivers (it should be noted that neither Pets nor IA5 lived up to his expectations ... there seems to be some serious cannibalization at work between family stuff this year, nearly every family movie did worse than expected with Pets and Zoo coming at least near ... the biggest success story is still Bibi&Tina3 with its near 2mil total which is a sizeable step up from 1 + 2) MarkG's prognosis for Rogue was 5,3mil total which seems a sensible number, as the 3,7mil for FB. In fact I can see Rogue going even higher while I have my doubts about FB (of course I'll be glad if proven wrong there) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giesi Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 FB has a shot at 5mil total, the fantasy fans are still out here and never underestimate them (look at Hobbit 2 &3) I'm not so sure about RO anymore, it could finish with less than half of TFA's audience. I'm blaming the lack of connection to the original trilogy. On Friday they showed ANH on TV and it didn't exactly do a stellar job. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 (edited) 37 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: The biggest damage-limiter should be Dory - MarkG has pegged it at 7mil total in his 2016 prognosis ... a number that's optimistic but doable if the movie delivers (it should be noted that neither Pets nor IA5 lived up to his expectations ... there seems to be some serious cannibalization at work between family stuff this year, nearly every family movie did worse than expected with Pets and Zoo coming at least near ... the biggest success story is still Bibi&Tina3 with its near 2mil total which is a sizeable step up from 1 + 2) MarkG's prognosis for Rogue was 5,3mil total which seems a sensible number, as the 3,7mil for FB. In fact I can see Rogue going even higher while I have my doubts about FB (of course I'll be glad if proven wrong there) I hope he's right for Dory I'm optimistic for FB, I agree with Griesi there is potential Rogue One will do very well, Darth Vader guys!!! Edited September 26, 2016 by Fullbuster 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Dory should at least become the biggest OW this year. This year is a bit boring yet... No big Openers, no big movies. Deadpool will fall, I'm sure (If the weather doesn't turn out to be great) 1 713.887 523 1.365 Deadpool But if Dory, FB and RO all disappoint - could this year end without any 6M+ movie??? The last time that happened was 2010, before that 1992, so that's clearly a rare phenomenon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Weekend: Bad Moms 190/235 Mag7 122,5 The Purge 3 III 107,5 SMS 105 Nerve 90 Snowden 70/87,5Tschick 70 Don't Breathe 60 Pets 55 Squad 30 Conni 22,5 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted September 27, 2016 Author Share Posted September 27, 2016 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Bad Moms 190.571 447 426 263.513 2.133.383 - 1 2 The Magnificent Seven 122.196 508 241 122.196 1.132.414 - 1 3 The Purge 3 108.396 371 292 391.369 3.309.203 -50 2 4 SMS für Dich 106.030 652 163 391.569 3.207.435 -39 2 5 Nerve 90.131 389 232 505.581 4.015.833 -43 3 6 Snowden 70.162 281 250 87.677 749.073 - 1 7 Tschick 69.055 566 122 243.336 1.882.381 -44 2 8 Don't Breathe 58.255 406 143 352.544 2.997.111 -44 3 9 The Secret Life of Pets 54.273 721 75 3.457.082 28.702.343 -59 9 10 Suicide Squad 28.766 400 72 1.565.167 16.216.016 -61 6 11 Conni & Co 22.589 621 36 406.722 2.543.815 -56 6 12 Pete's Dragon 16.719 499 34 224.643 1.667.432 -59 5 13 Schweinskopf al dente 14.181 200 71 474.868 3.628.257 -59 7 14 Toni Erdmann 12.878 179 72 624.292 5.566.877 -37 11 15 Ice Age 5 12.251 333 37 2.835.441 22.259.838 -60 13 16 Jason Bourne 11.196 179 63 914.028 8.055.737 -63 7 17 Captain Fantastic 10.302 164 63 189.569 1.384.346 -44 6 18 24 Wochen 10.110 100 101 18.755 132.066 - 1 19 Now You See Me 2 9.118 124 74 271.007 2.189.456 -51 5 20 Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates 8.333 290 29 341.078 2.683.689 -82 4 Bad drops and mediocre openings (except Snowden which did better than I expected) - another forgettable weekend in a long line this year … Next weekend: There's only one story and that's the opening for Finding Dory. Everybody's looking forward to the end of the BO depression; I really hope Dory can fulfill this role. An opening in the 800k range seems possible even if Nemo was a long time ago; weather should not be a problem this time so family stuff as a whole might recover the ground it lost this weekend. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said: Next weekend: There's only one story and that's the opening for Finding Dory. Everybody's looking forward to the end of the BO depression; I really hope Dory can fulfill this role. An opening in the 800k range seems possible even if Nemo was a long time ago; weather should not be a problem this time so family stuff as a whole might recover the ground it lost this weekend. Dory is a hard one to predict. I would be OK with every weekend that is the biggest OW 2016. A 1M OW would be great but is probably too much to ask. Whatever, I'm looking forward Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quigley Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said: Next weekend: There's only one story and that's the opening for Finding Dory. Everybody's looking forward to the end of the BO depression; I really hope Dory can fulfill this role. An opening in the 800k range seems possible even if Nemo was a long time ago; weather should not be a problem this time so family stuff as a whole might recover the ground it lost this weekend. How big was Nemo's opening and total in admissions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted September 27, 2016 Author Share Posted September 27, 2016 Nemo had nearly 9mil admissions total from a 2mil opening weekend ... those were the times 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 37 minutes ago, Quigley said: How big was Nemo's opening and total in admissions? 2.032.136, 9th best OW of all time, second best for an animation (after Ice Age 2) - big footprints 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 On 26.9.2016 at 9:29 AM, Giesi said: FB has a shot at 5mil total, the fantasy fans are still out here and never underestimate them (look at Hobbit 2 &3) I'm not so sure about RO anymore, it could finish with less than half of TFA's audience. I'm blaming the lack of connection to the original trilogy. On Friday they showed ANH on TV and it didn't exactly do a stellar job. The 4595845th repeat of ANH isn't really something I would use as any hint of what Rogue One could do. It's not like the ratings were bad either. Do you mean a lack of connection between Rogue One and the original trilogy, or a lack of connection between the general public and the old Star Wars movies? I don't think the former fits to the rest of the post, so I'll assume it's the latter. Not that I see a lack of connection to the original trilogy among the audience either. TFA got to 9 million admissions mostly because of its connection to those movies. People went to see it because of Han, Luke and Leia returning. Rogue One won't have any of the 'big three', and it's not one of the regular episodes, which should cost it a bit. On the other hand, it couldn't be more connected to ANH, and it will have Vader in it. It's hard to say where this movie will end up, but I could definately see it land somewhere in the Episode II and III range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quigley Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 5 hours ago, Aristis said: 2.032.136, 9th best OW of all time, second best for an animation (after Ice Age 2) - big footprints Wow, that is certainly a number Dory will struggle to live up to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 9 minutes ago, Quigley said: Wow, that is certainly a number Dory will struggle to live up to. 1m OW would be pretty huge these days.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolK Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Finding Nemo is with 8.8 million visitors the most successful CGI animated film of all time . During the continuation Finds Dorie in the US may well compete with the regions of its predecessor, it was in many international markets for the sequel clearly down (for example in France of 9.5 million to 3.3 million and in Spain of 5, 0 million to 3.2 million visitors down). But in many countries, there was little distance Pets and IA5 , which is different in Germany, so I see at least 4.8 million visitors. Insidekino expects close to 5m admissions total..that will translate to roughly 30mn euros ~ 33.7mn dollars 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giesi Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 9 hours ago, CoolK said: Finding Nemo is with 8.8 million visitors the most successful CGI animated film of all time . During the continuation Finds Dorie in the US may well compete with the regions of its predecessor, it was in many international markets for the sequel clearly down (for example in France of 9.5 million to 3.3 million and in Spain of 5, 0 million to 3.2 million visitors down). But in many countries, there was little distance Pets and IA5 , which is different in Germany, so I see at least 4.8 million visitors. Insidekino expects close to 5m admissions total..that will translate to roughly 30mn euros ~ 33.7mn dollars 5m adm should be around €40mio = $45mio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 I'll be satisfied with 3M... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 10 hours ago, CoolK said: Finding Nemo is with 8.8 million visitors the most successful CGI animated film of all time . During the continuation Finds Dorie in the US may well compete with the regions of its predecessor, it was in many international markets for the sequel clearly down (for example in France of 9.5 million to 3.3 million and in Spain of 5, 0 million to 3.2 million visitors down). But in many countries, there was little distance Pets and IA5 , which is different in Germany, so I see at least 4.8 million visitors. Insidekino expects close to 5m admissions total..that will translate to roughly 30mn euros ~ 33.7mn dollars More than enough to reach $1B Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Saturday, Sunday are predicted to have bad weather, Monday is a Holiday and it seems that there are some good early numbers. Then Dory will be the only family movie in the Autumn-Holidays - I'm really faithfull now 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quigley Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 I'd like to see at least 2/3rds of the original (5.9M). But I guess at this point anything that takes it above $1B will do... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...