IndustriousAngel Posted November 12, 2016 Author Share Posted November 12, 2016 Update: With Fri numbers it's looking even better: #1: WbdH - 450k (-5%) #2: Strange -200k (-30%) #3: Reacher - 190k #4: Trolls - 100k (-35%) #5: Bridget - 90k (-35%) #6/7: TGotT / Dory - 79k each (TGotT -25%, Dory -45%) #8: Inferno - 65k (-45%) #9: Pet.u.Fin. - 60k (-15%) That's a fine weekend overall, with hard drops for family stuff (expected after last weekend where some even had increases). Again, Dory is dropping hardest among family stuff, I don't believe in 4mil total anymore 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 13, 2016 Author Share Posted November 13, 2016 Final estimates are even higher for WbdH and Trolls; JackReacher down to 180k 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 (edited) 3rd Trend Hartmanns 475k (+1%/-6%) So 1,1M to 1,15M admissions after the second weekend! We will see how far it goes... Strange 200k (-31%) That's again a good hold - and it has about 1,15M admissions, too. JR 180k Trolls 120k (-19%) That seems absolutely great for a weekend were most of the Holidays have ended! WOM must be excellent like it seems to be in the US! Bridget Jones's 80k (-41%) Dory 70k (-48%) Only Violetta fell harder - WOM must be really bad... Inferno 70k (-41%) Girl on a Train 65k (-32%) Petterson & Findus 60k (-18%/-25%) Violetta 55k (-51%) Café Society 37,5k Before I wake 32,5k Next weekend will be interesting when Fantastic Beasts arrives. I don't know if it shares its target group with Hartmanns. But 3M arfe really a possibility for the refugee-friendly family. Edited November 13, 2016 by Aristis 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 14, 2016 Author Share Posted November 14, 2016 11 hours ago, Aristis said: 3rd Trend Hartmanns 475k (+1%/-6%) So 1,1M to 1,15M admissions after the second weekend! We will see how far it goes... Next weekend will be interesting when Fantastic Beasts arrives. I don't know if it shares its target group with Hartmanns. But 3M arfe really a possibility for the refugee-friendly family. Fantastic Beasts is a wild card ... I'd say a drop of about 50% total from the HP movies seems a sensible estimate, and as to opening weekend - HP was always rather frontloaded with all those kids; those diehard fans are a few years older now, I don't think we'll see anything like those rushes. FB gets the biggest screens of course, but at my theater, the evening shows for Wed are only 10% booked at the moment and the afternoon shows virtually empty. The Hartmanns are loose now, with 2nd weekend flat 3mil total are locked and there's really no telling how far it can do, a very welcome surprise in a lackluster year. btw, in Austria Jack Reacher was #1 (did a bit better than in Germany but nothing stellar either); the Hartmanns on #2 dropped about 30%; Strange #3 more than 40%. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Hartmanns 485/1135Strange 195/1145Jack Reacher 165/180Trolls 122,5/785Bridget 77,5/1040Dory 72,5/3640Inferno 70/1410Girl 65/390 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 15, 2016 Author Share Posted November 15, 2016 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Willkommen bei den Hartmanns 486.778 656 742 1.134.769 9.393.136 +4 2 2 Doctor Strange 193.716 588 329 1.140.743 12.588.905 -33 3 3 Jack Reacher 2 166.510 508 328 181.037 1.602.115 - 1 4 Trolls 122.548 672 182 782.889 5.775.741 -18 4 5 Bridget Jones's Baby 78.159 610 128 1.039.397 8.897.882 -43 4 6 Finding Dory 71.752 687 104 3.636.447 30.512.381 -46 7 7 Inferno 70.201 516 136 1.408.548 12.370.820 -41 5 8 The Girl on the Train 64.330 443 145 388.661 3.348.822 -33 3 9 Pettersson & Findus - Weihnachten 61.497 465 132 150.877 917.538 -15 2 10 Tini - Violettas Zukunft 55.823 412 135 181.660 1.241.587 -51 2 11 Café Society 36.050 135 267 40.452 323.961 - 1 12 Before I Wake 30.124 191 158 32.105 280.731 - 1 13 Burg Schreckenstein 29.384 500 59 269.406 1.698.235 -39 4 14 Storks 28.309 435 65 166.727 1.196.490 -35 3 15 Miss Peregrine's Home For Peculiar Children 24.288 285 85 825.873 8.158.183 -33 6 16 The Accountant 16.756 225 74 280.890 2.457.446 -56 4 17 Bad Moms 16.125 211 76 1.265.158 10.360.592 -49 8 18 Ouija: Origin of Evil 12.704 249 51 198.651 1.718.848 -59 4 19 Die Mitte der Welt 10.348 81 128 17.029 123.170 - 1 20 Tschick 8.878 140 63 635.114 4.568.772 -30 9 Wow at Willkommen bei den Hartmanns, the refugee comedy opened better than expected last weekend and now it had and increase - a very welcome surprise! 3mil total should be safe with this performance. Doctor Strange had an ok drop, definitely another success for Marvel. Jack Reacher stayed a bit below my expectations but did basically what was expected. Trolls is showing very nice holds! Next weekend: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them is the big story - nobody expects anything like the Harry Potter craze but #1 for the weekend is a must; in fact anything below 700k admissions for the weekend would seem rather disappointing. Yet presales are strangely muted … let's keep those fingers crossed! 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 (edited) Fantastic Beasts starts in 767 cinemas. While that's pretty much it's far behind the 877 cinemas the first Hobbit had. I would say less than 600k for the weekend would be a disaster. More than 800k would be great. And it will probably land in the middle of that. But hopefully it'll be more - 1M+ would be wonderful And tomorow when I'm back again this thread is probably over 300k views! Edited November 16, 2016 by Aristis 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 1 hour ago, Aristis said: Fantastic Beasts starts in 767 cinemas. While that's pretty much it's far behind the 877 cinemas the first Hobbit had. I would say less than 600k for the weekend would be a disaster. More than 800k would be great. And it will probably land in the middle of that. But hopefully it'll be more - 1M+ would be wonderful And tomorow when I'm back again this thread is probably over 300k views! What were the opens for the last 3 or so HP films? It won't come anywhere near the last but how's it tracking compared to earlier installments? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Here's the full list for opening weekends: HP1: 2.59 million HP2: 2.49 HP 4: 2.4 HP3: 1.987 HP6: 1.844 HP7.1: 1.769 HP5: 1.682 HP7.2: 1.608 The current presales look rather weak to me, but I don't have access to any comparable numbers from earlier Harry Potter movies. The numbers listed for individual theaters don't really approach sellouts as far as I can see. Then again, maybe it will be differently for the weekend itself. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 17, 2016 Author Share Posted November 17, 2016 At my theater, afternoon shows are still empty as yesterday - ok, it's a normal work and school day so no big surprise. But it's the evening that makes me worry, we're far far from sellout status, only 1/3 to 1/2 seats sold. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giesi Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 3 hours ago, George Parr said: Here's the full list for opening weekends: HP1: 2.59 million HP2: 2.49 HP 4: 2.4 HP3: 1.987 HP6: 1.844 HP7.1: 1.769 HP5: 1.682 HP7.2: 1.608 Wow, I didn't expect that at all. HP8 was my greatest cinema experience, tied with TFA midnight premiere. The hype felt so real in my immediate local area, crazy to think about that it had the lowest opening and a total of just 6mil admissions 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miketheavenger Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 1 hour ago, Giesi said: Wow, I didn't expect that at all. HP8 was my greatest cinema experience, tied with TFA midnight premiere. The hype felt so real in my immediate local area, crazy to think about that it had the lowest opening and a total of just 6mil admissions To be fair, by 2011 admissions in general had become far lower than the "boom" in the early/mid-2000s. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 3 hours ago, Giesi said: Wow, I didn't expect that at all. HP8 was my greatest cinema experience, tied with TFA midnight premiere. The hype felt so real in my immediate local area, crazy to think about that it had the lowest opening and a total of just 6mil admissions HP1 2.590.464 2.590.464 HP2 2.489.952 2.489.952 HP3 1.987.285 1.987.285 HP4 2.400.158 2.685.158* HP5 1.682.806 2.086.806* HP6 1.844.184 2.218.552* HP7-1 1.768.932 2.053.245* HP7-2 1.607.782 2.015.450* With pre-start it looks a bit better? 2M 5-day is a huge OW! There's no Hobbit movie which did that (makes me sad to think about how much potential The Hobbit had and how it turned out to be (in terms of BoxOffice) - it seems FB could follow that path (and that much worse ) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 (edited) The Thursday estimates via insidekino.de (forum): New Releases: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: 75k (starts in 767 theaters, good to very good reviews, promising WOM) Radio Heimat: 0.5k (125, mediocre reviews) Dirty Cops: ?k (90, ok reviews) Egon Schiele: ?k (88, good reviews) Paterson: ?k (87, very good reviews) Holdovers: Willkommen bei den Hartmanns: 40k (45k) – would be a great hold given the competition if this number holds Jack Reacher 2: 10.5k (25k) – maybe again underestimated Doctor Strange: 10.5k (25k) - the same Bridget Jones's Baby: 10.5k (12k) Girl on the Train: 5k (7.5k) Inferno: 4.5k (8k) So pretty good holds and not a bad start of FB, but I'm not sure which multiplier it will have over the weekend. Maybe IndustriousAngel or somebody else has more routine in these things and can help. Edited November 17, 2016 by el sid 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 17, 2016 Author Share Posted November 17, 2016 Really difficult to say ... the Potter movies were always rather frontloaded but I guess this one should be considered more as an original story so 700k should be possible - a good opening and maybe a blockbuster (with yesterday's and today's performance I would be happy with those 3mil truth be told, sad as that is) - but that's more than just some steps down from the HP movies. Let's hope the weekend afternoon shows sell better than today's, that PTA has to go up a lot to reach 700k. Realistically, this smeels more like a 500k opening ... But the real story is WbdH, that's another incredible hold - a blockbuster out of left field, really no telling how far it can go - as I mentioned, 3mil total are toast but with another no-drop 4mil seem feasible. Really, as long as it doesn't start to drop you can't even set a sensible limit 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 First weekend trends from insidekino.de: #1: FB - 750k (including Wed) - better than feared at least! #2: WbdH - 450k (-10% or better) #3: Strange - 110k (-45%) #4: Reacher - 100k (-40%) #5: Trolls - 75k (-40%) 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 1 minute ago, IndustriousAngel said: First weekend trends from insidekino.de: #1: FB - 750k (including Wed) - better than feared at least! #2: WbdH - 450k (-10% or better) #3: Strange - 110k (-45%) #4: Reacher - 100k (-40%) #5: Trolls - 75k (-40%) Do you have the numbers for HP movies? That would be interesting to compare! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Just now, Fullbuster said: Do you have the numbers for HP movies? That would be interesting to compare! 18 hours ago, Aristis said: HP1 2.590.464 2.590.464 HP2 2.489.952 2.489.952 HP3 1.987.285 1.987.285 HP4 2.400.158 2.685.158* HP5 1.682.806 2.086.806* HP6 1.844.184 2.218.552* HP7-1 1.768.932 2.053.245* HP7-2 1.607.782 2.015.450* With pre-start it looks a bit better? 2M 5-day is a huge OW! There's no Hobbit movie which did that (makes me sad to think about how much potential The Hobbit had and how it turned out to be (in terms of BoxOffice) - it seems FB could follow that path (and that much worse ) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 (edited) Oh poor Aristis, I missed his post Too weird : HP8 had the lowest opening of all Edited November 18, 2016 by Fullbuster 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 Why is this weird? It's called franchise fatigue. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...