Aristis Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 (edited) 1st Trend: #1 SW9 285k (-53%) 4,79M #2 Knives Out 195k (-15%/-22% i.P.) 500k #3 Frozen2 160k (-55%) 6,275M - biggest movie since SW7 (9,06M) #4 Jumanji2 125k (-63%) 2,04M - passing J1 (2,01M) this WE #5 Kaninchen 100k (-38%) 625k #6 Zauberhafte Schwestern 110k (i.P) Edited January 10, 2020 by Aristis 6 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 10, 2020 Author Share Posted January 10, 2020 (edited) Jumanji2 dropping harder than Frozen2 - hadn't seen that coming. Knives Out on#2, very good, excellent drop. SW9, expected hard drop but still in the "ok" range Edited January 10, 2020 by IndustriousAngel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 (edited) 42 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: Jumanji2 dropping harder than Frozen2 - hadn't seen that coming. Knives Out on#2, very good, excellent drop. SW9, expected hard drop but still in the "ok" range I'd actually say SW9 drop is good considering the circumstances (and even compared to drops like Hobbit 2 ones (which dropped 60.5% on this weekend back in 2013)) Though it in the end still will end more than 1M below Frozen 2. Thinking that they are headed for: Frozen 2: 6.65M (so back to what I though (don't know 2 weeks ago or so) TROS: 5.4M (100k lower) Jumanji TNL: 2.45M (a little below Pets) Knives Out: 1.15M (going optimistic here) Kaninchen: 1M (before edit: 900k) Geheimnis: 5.1M (around Endgame) Edited January 10, 2020 by Taruseth 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 10, 2020 Author Share Posted January 10, 2020 14 minutes ago, Taruseth said: Knives Out: 1.15M (going optimistic here) I don't think that's very optimistic, it seems to generate very good WOM and next week's competition isn't too stiff (1917 and BadBoys3); atm I'd say 1.1mil sounds lika a sensible goal, 1.25mil would be optimistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danhtruong5 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 20 minutes ago, Taruseth said: I'd actually say SW9 drop is good considering the circumstances (and even compared to drops like Hobbit 2 ones (which dropped 60.5% on this weekend back in 2013)) Though it in the end still will end more than 1M below Frozen 2. Thinking that they are headed for: Frozen 2: 6.65M (so back to what I though (don't know 2 weeks ago or so) TROS: 5.4M (100k lower) Jumanji TNL: 2.45M (a little below Pets) Knives Out: 1.15M (going optimistic here) Kaninchen: 1M (before edit: 900k) Geheimnis: 5.1M (around Endgame) F2: 6.65M is how much in USD? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 39 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said: F2: 6.65M is how much in USD? Around $60M I guess (~€54M) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 (edited) Second trend is up, Jumanji jumped up a bit, while Star Wars dropped, otherwise no changes: #1 SW9 275k #2 Knives Out 195k #3 Frozen 2 160k #4 Jumanji 2 145k #5 Zauberhafte Schwestern 110k #6 Kaninchen 100k #7 Geheimnis 90k #8 Spione Undercover 60k #9 The Grudge 55k #10 Queen & Slim 32.5k Edited January 11, 2020 by George Parr 7 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 Final estimates from insidekino.de have a 59% drop for SW9 so that's not so good ... Jumanji2 now in front of Frozen2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danhtruong5 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: Final estimates from insidekino.de have a 59% drop for SW9 so that's not so good ... Jumanji2 now in front of Frozen2 Any change for Frozen 2? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 57 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said: Any change for Frozen 2? estimate 150k, so a bit down but one can't complain much; it's the first after-holidays-weekend and it's milked the market for all it's worth already Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 btw, Austria's 2019 numbers are now final and even though quartals 3 and 4 were good, that wasn't able to save the year ... it's been the 2nd worst in recent times, only "beaten" by the dismal 2018 numbers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 (edited) The Monday update (SW9 stayed flat compared to the third trend): #1 SW9 250k/4.76M #2 Knives Out 185k - only -19% #3 Jumanji 170k/2.085M - overtook its predecessor #4 Frozen2 150k/6.265M #5 Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl 92.5k/615k #6 Vier zauberhafte Schwestern 90k/110k #7 Das perfekte Geheimnis 85k/4.915M #8 Spies in Disguise 62.5k/410k #9 The Grudge 52.5k (including previews) ... Queen & Slim 20k/32.5k Attraction II 12.5k (I think that's without previews) Underwater 11.5k (without previews) Edited January 13, 2020 by el sid 4 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 I was sure Jumanji2 and Frozen2 would be battling for #2, didn't expect that kind of hold from Knives Out - definitely a good sign! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Star Wars 9 253.321 682 371 4.762.621 55.036.180 -58 4 2 Knives Out 187.296 538 348 495.641 4.482.777 -18 2 3 Jumanji 2 171.041 632 271 2.085.947 19.553.200 -49 5 4 Frozen 2 149.608 671 223 6.267.430 51.399.409 -58 8 5 Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl 92.925 598 155 617.096 5.242.617 -42 3 6 Vier zauberhafte Schwestern 89.885 469 192 110.209 757.006 - 1 7 Das perfekte Geheimnis 85.284 572 149 4.922.473 43.582.895 -44 11 8 Spies in Disguise 61.976 446 139 412.000 3.089.171 -52 3 9 The Grudge 52.596 227 232 52.596 473.610 - 1 10 Charlie's Angels 27.959 233 120 122.418 993.429 -54 2 11 Latte Igel und der magische Wasserstein 20.903 347 60 131.512 859.289 -46 3 12 Der kleine Rabe Socke 3 20.399 536 38 253.094 1.640.961 -46 5 13 Queen & Slim 20.033 109 184 32.692 251.993 - 1 14 Judy 19.249 122 158 65.885 561.199 -21 2 15 Cats 18.145 488 37 218.928 1.879.162 -55 3 16 Attraction 2 12.257 112 109 12.257 133.806 - 1 17 Underwater 11.470 88 130 11.470 101.414 - 1 18 The Peanut Butter Falcon 10.229 97 105 89.086 687.606 -32 4 19 Parasite 8.657 96 90 406.448 3.525.835 +7 13 20 Joker 8.129 168 48 4.076.245 37.745.570 -43 14 Well, holidays are over … steep drops, epecially for family fare and Star Wars 9 (which will find it difficult to reach the 5,5mil). The more impressinve is Knives Out with a fine hold. Among openers, domestic girl film Vier zauberhafte Schwestern did what was expected; The Grudge had an ok PTA; but basically the slot was nearly unoccupied. By the way, in Austria, Star Wars 9 was only #3 last weekend behind Jumanji2 and Knives Out. Next weekend: Three big openers: 1917 comes with good reviews but the theme is not very attractive, let's see if it can reach the Top5. A bigger opening is possible for Bad Boys 3 though the franchise is near forgotten; something like a 150-200k OW should be possible for any good popcorn actioner - maybe even a new #1? Also a contender is domestic music film Lindenberg!; the performer is still well-liked and if his fans can be bothered to watch him on the big screen, a >150k opening seems possible. Also, it will be interesting to watch if Knives Out can beat SW9 next weekend! 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Jumanji had a crazy difference between it's first trend and actuals 125k vs 171k (38% diff). And it's hold has been pretty great tbh. 5 weekends ago F2 had 468k and Jumanji had 383.5k. Jumanji dropped only 55.5% from it's OW in it's 5th weekend. You would need 18% drop 4 weeks long to only drop 55.5% from OW to 5th weekend. Doing the same for the holiday period with frozen it dropped 68% so about 25% drops for 4 weeks long. Next week Jumanji shoud aim for a 25% drop or better. Frozen would be looking at around 32% I guess. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poseidon Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Presales for Bad Boys are very Good. Easy #1 for the weekend. Would see 300k as the absolute minimum here. More like 400k+. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Poseidon said: Presales for Bad Boys are very Good. Easy #1 for the weekend. Would see 300k as the absolute minimum here. More like 400k+. would be nice, another (small) hit after the holidays! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 SW vs SW: Spoiler WE SW7 SW8 SW9 1st 2.139 2.139 1.627 1.627 1.388 1.710 2nd 1.161 -46% 4.431 721 -56% 2.838 1.092 -21% 3.384 3rd 848 -27% 6.566 849 18% 4.393 610 -44% 4.372 4th 583 -31% 7.630 467 -45% 5.211 253 -58% 4.763 5th 324 -44% 8.094 202 -57% 5.503 6th 204 -37% 8.380 110 -46% 5.663 7th 145 -29% 8.582 70 -36% 5.761 8th 91 -37% 8.719 42 -40% 5.822 9th 66 -27% 8.819 24 -43% 5.857 10th 39 -41% 8.874 11 -54% 5.877 9,060M 5,906M 5,200M Frozen vs Frozen: Spoiler Frozen1 Frozen2 WE Weekend Mid-week Week Weekend Mid-week Week 1st 572 654 124 696 1.430 1.635 246 1.676 2nd 577 1% 1.355 121 698 0% 941 -34% 2.822 174 1.115 -33% 3rd 476 -18% 1.952 114 590 -15% 708 -25% 3.704 135 843 -24% 4th 433 -9% 2.499 203 636 8% 468 -34% 4.307 108 576 -32% 5th 540 25% 3.242 194 734 15% 393 -16% 4.808 212 605 5% 6th 402 -26% 3.838 95 497 -32% 485 23% 5.505 181 666 10% 7th 158 -61% 4.091 19 177 -64% 356 -27% 6.042 75 431 -35% 8th 107 -32% 4.217 13 120 -32% 150 -58% 6.267 9th 81 -24% 4.311 12 93 -23% 10th 89 10% 4.412 0 4.767M 0 0 6,700M 0 WE Minions Frozen2 1st 935 935 1.430 1.635 2nd 1.040 11% 2.394 941 -34% 2.822 3rd 760 -27% 3.598 708 -25% 3.704 4th 537 -29% 4.419 468 -34% 4.307 5th 366 -32% 5.147 393 -16% 4.808 6th 195 -47% 5.521 485 23% 5.505 7th 242 24% 5.893 356 -27% 6.042 8th 111 -54% 6.160 150 -58% 6.267 9th 81 -27% 6.323 10th 125 54% 6.497 6.946M 6,700M Jumanji vs Jumanji: Spoiler WE Jumanji 1 Jumanji 2 1st 198 198 383 401 2nd 314 59% 681 303 -21% 791 3rd 299 -5% 1.273 404 33% 1.355 4th 168 -44% 1.484 338 -16% 1.851 5th 113 -33% 1.623 171 -49% 2.086 6th 88 -22% 1.729 7th 63 -28% 1.809 8th 49 -22% 1.875 2,009M 2,500M 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 16, 2020 Author Share Posted January 16, 2020 #1 seems to be very very safe for BadBoys3 ... StarWars3 is dropping extremely hard (at my theater, only 7 (seven) tickets sold for tomorrow (Friday) - ugh 🤒 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 17, 2020 Author Share Posted January 17, 2020 First weekend estimates from insidekino.de #1: BadBoys3 - 450k (incl previews) - excellent! #2: 1917 - 180k (incl previews) - also better than I expected, fine number! #3: StarWars9 - 135k (-47%) #4: KnivesOut - 120k (-35%) #5: Lindenberg! - 130k (incl. previews) I'd expect SW9 to drop harder than 50% in the end, but the good openers are making up for that, fine weekend! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...