BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[el sid]

Some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

New Releases:

King Arthur: 21k – a bit better than estimated but of course there's space for improvement
Überflieger: 1.6k → 30k admissions OW predicted at the moment, should have been more with that many theaters

Rückkehr nach Montauk: 2k (started in 70 theaters)
Berlin Rebel High School: 1 k (37 theaters)

 

Holdovers:

GotG2: 30k – I said it , it was underestimated yesterday as always
Get Out: 12.5k  - I hoped for a little bit better hold, still very solid
Fast 8: 7k

[IndustriousAngel]

That hold would be awesome for Get Out - having the best hold among major releases is no small feat for a horror-themed movie.

Edited May 12, 2017 by IndustriousAngel

[el sid]

Probably I oriented too much towards the great US holds which Get Out had.

Normally I don't post the Friday estimates but this evening I have nothing better to do at the moment and numbers don't look bad at all, especially for the pretty warm and sunny day in many regions.

GotG2: 68.5k
King Arthur: 49k – 2.5x its Thursday numbers, not bad. Hopefully it's underestimated again
Get Out: 44k - if that number holds it would indeed have a very good second weekend
Fast 8: 25k
Expedition Happiness: 11.5k
Going in Style 8.5k – also good
BatB: 6k

Happy Burnout: 5k

[zackzack]

21 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Weekend estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: GotG2 - 250k admissions (-45%)

#2: Arthur - 180k (meh)

#3: Get Out - 100k (-35%)

#4: F&F8 - 65k (-55%)

 

 

Where do you think Boss Baby will ned up with 20M euro?

[George Parr]

20m Euro would sound overly optimistic to me. Looking at its current admissions to money ratio, the movie would need about 2.5m admissions to get to 20m Euro. It is currently sitting at around 1.6m or so, and since it isn't listed in the trend and no.5 ends up with around 50k or so, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of steam left. Maybe it can get to 15m, but 20m seem very unlikely to me.

[IndustriousAngel]

Saturday estimates look a bit better for most releases (with the exception of Arthur)

[Aristis]

A bit better - especially for familystuff - with the Sunday Trend!

 

GotG 260k (-40%) 1,88M (105% of GotG1)

King Arthur 170k

Get Out 110k (-30%/-40%)

F&F8 80k (>40%)

Boss Baby 55k (-25%)

Embrace 50k

Smurfs 3 40k (-30%)

Überflieger 40k

BatB 30k (>-35%)

 

InsideKino

Edited May 14, 2017 by Aristis

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Guardians of the Galaxy 2	252.035	715	352	1.878.135	20.877.053	-42	3
2	King Arthur	160.601	561	286	174.241	1.886.218	-	1
3	Get Out	103.711	511	203	327.391	2.795.625	-32	2
4	Fast & Furious 8	76.376	522	146	3.095.271	29.041.304	-46	5
5	Embrace	50.610	185	274	50.610	461.305	-	1
6	The Boss Baby	45.391	660	69	1.710.346	12.783.368	-38	7
7	Beauty and the Beast	32.459	420	77	3.296.141	31.932.348	-31	9
8	Smurfs 3	31.868	660	48	1.123.683	8.090.563	-45	6
9	Richard the Stork	31.320	437	72	34.646	231.581	-	1
10	Happy Burnout	23.330	281	83	158.601	1.272.286	-27	3
11	Going in Style	21.902	354	62	402.510	3.411.066	-34	5
12	Expedition Happiness	17.308	190	91	86.217	808.676	-68	2
13	Bienvenue à Marly-Gomont	15.227	217	70	120.041	919.597	-14	4
14	The Shack	13.895	304	46	225.883	1.911.889	-28	6
15	Conni & Co 2	13.443	557	24	183.500	1.191.699	-46	4
16	Rückkehr nach Montauk	13.309	75	177	14.420	120.285	-	1
17	The Bye Bye Man	7.721	187	41	115.867	1.001.296	-42	4
18	A Monster Calls	6.162	131	47	41.399	293.256	-57	2
19	Einsamkeit und Sex und Mitleid	5.930	73	81	22.549	176.023	-45	2
20	Ghost in the Shell	3.973	141	28	574.430	6.282.613	-54	7

 

A rather uneventful weekend, King Arthur starts with bad reviews and mediocre numbers. As last weekend, a docu managed to sneak into the Top10, this time even Top5 - nice surprise from Embrace! Guardians of the Galaxy 2 has now overtaken the first one and is on its way to maybe 2,5mil total, and Get Out had an excellent drop, especially for a horror release!

 

Next weekend: Ridley Scott doing an Alien movie? Of course, other distributors kept that slot free for this surefire blockbuster. Or not? After Prometheus' more fizzling than sizzling performance, everybody (including me) expects a step down, so I'm not sure why Alien: Covenant gets a weekend more or less without competition. At least it should manage #1 without problems, maybe doing about 250k. 20th Century Women might be good counterprogramming; not much with any seriousness is in release right now.

[Aristis]

The weather could really help the movies having great drops one week before the next Blockbuster! Is expected to be very good (for cinemas )

 

I won't say something about A Monster calls... Germans don't seem to like dark movies, rather stupid comedy

[IndustriousAngel]

8 hours ago, Aristis said:

The weather could really help the movies having great drops one week before the next Blockbuster! Is expected to be very good (for cinemas )

 

I won't say something about A Monster calls... Germans don't seem to like dark movies, rather stupid comedy

I have hopes for next weekend, too - seems to get really rainy (movie hopes; in real life I hope ist stays halfway decent as we'll be driving to Scotland starting Saturday ...)

 

A Monster Calls was obviously given up on by StudioCanal/Summit, very few reviews and less advertising (in Austria it's distributed by Constantin but similar problems) ... I don't know, probably was a cheap pickup and now they didn't know how to market it so just wrote it off.

[el sid]

Some Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum:

New Releases:

Alien – Covenant: 45.5k (581 theaters, ok to good reviews, some very good) – if that number holds it would be a very nice start
Digimon Adventure Tri. 1: Wiedervereinigung: ?k (111)

Jahrhundertfrauen: ?k (ca 100, very good reviews)
Beuys: ?k (documentary, 73, better reviews than in the USA , some ok, some good)

Holdovers:

King Arthur: 11.5k (in the actuals last Thursday 21k) – not that bad but hopefully also underestimated again
GotG2: 11k ( 30k) – remember, it was always underestimated; but the film is obviously affected pretty much by the new competition
Get Out: 5k (12.5k)
Fast 8: 3k (7k)
Going in Style: 1k (2.5k)
Happy Burnout: 1k

The weather was sunny and warm today, at least in the South. But the weekend is, as already mentioned above, predicted to be worse. And for the Pirates-fans: Next week is so far also not said to be very good – in this case I'm fine with it .

Since IndustriousAngel wrote about it above: King Arthur did mostly not get bad reviews from website-reviewers. From some newspapers yes (some, my newspaper e.g. rated it 5/5), but especially some big, very frequented sites like filmstarts.de or quotenmeter.de scored it better than average.
And at least most of the people who saw it also liked it (3.7/5 filmstarts, 4.4/5 kino.de, 6.8/10 moviepilot).
I think unfortunately too few people had it on the radar and the weekend weather was too good.

The run of A Monster Calls is indeed sad but somehow I can understand  it if people after a week full of work and maybe trouble want to see a film that is more light-hearted/nonsense. Even I will only rent it and maybe later buy it.
By the way I start to think that Baywatch could be a bigger hit than I thought months-long.
The Rock is popular here, it's definitely nothing to brood over, the marketing campaign started early, reviews don't matter as long as they say „it's dumb fun“ and the TV spot which is (mainly) used IMO is much more funny than the trailers.

Edited May 18, 2017 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

First weekend estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: Covenant - 250k (meh but expected)

#2: GotG2 - 150k (-40%)

#3: Arthur - 100k (-60%)

[el sid]

Some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

New Releases:

Alien: Covenant: 35k – overestimated by 10k yesterday, probably the sunshine/warm evening caused that some people changed their minds and did not go to the theaters as originally planned, nothing new :/ . Blickpunkt:Film thinks 300k could also be possible depending on weather but normally insidekino.de is better with weekend extrapolations; Prometheus started with 310k admissions OW (1M total)
Beuys: 2k (in 58 theaters yesterday)
Jahrhundertfrauen: 1.5k (83 theaters) – surprisingly low but should have good WOM

 

Holdovers:

GotG2: 16.5k (30k) – as always underestimated yesterday, must have fine walk-ups and fans who actually pick up their tickets
King Arthur: 12k (in the actuals last Thursday 21k) - an ok hold
Get Out: 6.5k (12.5k) → 60k OW predicted (-42%)
Fast 8: 4k (7k) → 47.5k (-37%)

Edited May 19, 2017 by el sid

[Aristis]

3rd Trend

 

Alien down to 210k...

GotG2 150k (-40%)

Arthur 100k (-40%)

Get Out 60k (42%)

FF8 47,5k (-37%)

Baby Boss 32,5k (-28%)

 

InsideKino

Edited May 21, 2017 by Aristis

[George Parr]

I'm surprised nothing else dropped from the last trend. Don't know about the south of the country, but here in the north the weather couldn't really be much better, it is warm and sunny today.

[el sid]

3 hours ago, George Parr said:

I'm surprised nothing else dropped from the last trend. Don't know about the south of the country, but here in the north the weather couldn't really be much better, it is warm and sunny today.

Here it's moderatly warm and grey. No weather for small trips.

I'm also surprised. And I was already disappointed before. I would have thought A:C reaches at least 300k admissions. Don't know what went wrong. The Wednesday bookings looked so good e.g. at mathäser but then it stopped. If it's always that way, I mean that the previews on Wednesday were the best day, then it could end on the level of King Arthur last week which had 160k admissions Thursday-Sunday. At least King Arthur nor the other films were destroyed this weekend.

Positive thing is that PotC5 has now all the space it needs and much lower competition than most would have thought earlier in the year. OTOH I'm starting to worry that Germans dislike everything that is released. But of course a few films underperforming has nothing to do with the next weekend.
I heard really good things about the little extract of POTC5 which was shown in the (IMAX) theaters here too. Several commenters said these five minutes were funnier than the whole PotC4. Hopefully they didn't show the best part of the film but I doubt it.

Edited May 21, 2017 by el sid

[miketheavenger]

1 hour ago, el sid said:

Here it's moderatly warm and grey. No weather for small trips.

I'm also surprised. And I was already disappointed before. I would have thought A:C reaches at least 300k admissions. Don't know what went wrong. The Wednesday bookings looked so good e.g. at mathäser but then it stopped. If it's always that way, I mean that the previews on Wednesday were the best day, then it could end on the level of King Arthur last week which had 160k admissions Thursday-Sunday. At least King Arthur nor the other films were destroyed this weekend.

Positive thing is that PotC5 has now all the space it needs and much lower competition than most would have thought earlier in the year. OTOH I'm starting to worry that Germans dislike everything that is released. But of course a few films underperforming has nothing to do with the next weekend.
I heard really good things about the little extract of POTC5 which was shown in the (IMAX) theaters here too. Several commenters said these five minutes were funnier than the whole PotC4. Hopefully they didn't show the best part of the film but I doubt it.

GotG2 is doing really well, so I wouldn't worry about the marketplace as a whole. If a movie looks appealing, it will do well.

[Aristis]

Latest numbers:

 

Alien           190/215
GotG          152,5  (-39%) 2095 (116% of the first one)
Arthur        100     (-38%/-43%) 320
Get Out      60       (-42%) 410
FF8            47,5    (-37%) 3155
Boss Baby  32,5    (-28%) 1750
Überflieger  22,5    (-27%/-36%) 62,5
Smurfs       22,5    (-30%) 1145
BatB           20       (-37%) 3325

 

InsideKino

Edited May 22, 2017 by Aristis

[el sid]

First trend (insidekino.de):
Beforehand I would like to say that Mark_G counts with the hottest and sunniest weekend of the year and therefore gives every film a very conservative multiplier. The weather costs – if the trend is true - e.g. PotC5 at least 200k admissions.

#1 PotC5: 675k or more (this time the extrapolations between the two boxoffice prediction websites differ a lot: insidekino.de predict „only“ 675k, Blickpunkt:Film 1M-1.2M and with 200k (please look down ) yesterday alone plus 100k I guess at least on Wednesday plus other previews it would need to have a really terrible Friday-Sunday for only 675k admissions).
#2 GotG2: 85k
#3 A:C: 80k
#4 Hanni und Nanni: 55k
#5 King Arthur: 45k

Some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

New Releases:

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales: 200k (released in 776 theaters – the biggest start of the year so far, mixed reviews but overall quite good – whatever multiplier it will have that's not a bad number, means 2.1M Euro/2.35M US$
Hanni & Nanni: 16k (640, only two reviews, both pretty bad)
Berlin Syndrom: ?k (ca. 40, mediocre reviews)
Churchill: 1,4k (ca. 70, mixed reviews)
Die Reste meines Lebens: ?k (ca. 50, good reviews)

Holdovers:

Alien: Covenant: 27k (35k)
GotG2: 27k (16.5k)
King Arthur: 15k (12k)

Somehow PotC5 is cursed. First the leak talking, than the reviews and than the weather predictions changed to perfect anti-theater-weather. We can only hope for the movies that this summer doesn't go on like that.
Yesterday was a national holiday (Christi Himmelfahrt and Father's Day) and today 1/3 of the states have school holidays.

Edited May 26, 2017 by el sid

[Aristis]

Probably MarkG is veeeeeeeeeeery conservative so that we can see movies going up over the weekend

 

This will get to over 700k I think. Down quite a bit from POTC4 (about 1,3M) but hopefully enough for 3M. I want more than 50% of the last ones $62M...