BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

Final estimates a bit up

 

[IndustriousAngel]

And with preliminary final we numbers, we're up again:

#1: GotG2 - 740k admissions

#2: F&F8 - 270k (-52%)

#3: BossBaby - 80k (-63%)

#4: BatB - 70k (-54%)

#5: Smurfs - 60k (-68%)

 

Actuals might be late this week with Monday a holiday but those should be very close.

[Aristis]

On 1.5.2017 at 8:09 AM, IndustriousAngel said:

And with preliminary final we numbers, we're up again:

#1: GotG2 - 740k admissions

#2: F&F8 - 270k (-52%)

#3: BossBaby - 80k (-63%)

#4: BatB - 70k (-54%)

#5: Smurfs - 60k (-68%)

 

Actuals might be late this week with Monday a holiday but those should be very close.

Monday will be hugecfor family-movies I think! Weather is pretty bad. Maybe for some as much as they made the whole weekend?

 

Guardians II 745
F&F8 270/2740
Boss Baby 77,5/1515
BATB 72,5/3165
Smurfs 60/970
Going in Style 50/315
Burnout 45/52,5
Bye Bye Man 30/85
C&C II 25/120
Dorf 22,5/55
The Shack 22,5/165

 

I'm still unsure which movie will win, F&F8 or BatB... But as for GOTG2 it's the biggest OW for an SH-movie since 5 years (TDKR 857.332) and the best for Marvel since 10 years! (Spider Man 3 857.370) It's 60% bigger than GOTG1 (463.016). That is great I don't know what it can make on Monday, maybe it'll be between 850k and 900k.

Edited May 2, 2017 by Aristis

[IndustriousAngel]

4 hours ago, Aristis said:

I'm still unsure which movie will win, F&F8 or Guardians...

in what respect? Guardians have won the weekend but in the end, F&F8 will end up with nearly double the admissions I guess. Even with stellar legs (for a SH movie) I can't see Guardians approaching 3mil; 2mil would be a nice increase from part 1.

[miketheavenger]

Seems like Sunday was very strong for GotG2 despite generally good weather. IMO that bodes well for its legs going forward.

[George Parr]

I think that has more to do with Monday being a holiday and thus Sunday not acting like it normally would. I wouldn't see any indication of the movie's future legs in that.

[IndustriousAngel]

At least Monday is extremely strong ... and weather for next weekend doesn't look too promising so let's wait, could well be we'll see some really really fine holds!

[miketheavenger]

8 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

At least Monday is extremely strong ... and weather for next weekend doesn't look too promising so let's wait, could well be we'll see some really really fine holds!

Hopefully. This movie deserves all the success it can get. As long as it cracks 2m admissions, I'll be satisfied.

[Aristis]

On 1.5.2017 at 3:01 PM, IndustriousAngel said:

in what respect? Guardians have won the weekend but in the end, F&F8 will end up with nearly double the admissions I guess. Even with stellar legs (for a SH movie) I can't see Guardians approaching 3mil; 2mil would be a nice increase from part 1.

I meant BatB...

 

According to InsideKino: 750k for GotG2 in 4 and 940k in 5 days - that's huge Nearly 200k on Monday. Maybe 1,5M after Sunday?

Edited May 2, 2017 by Aristis

[Olive]

biggest MCU movie in play?

[miketheavenger]

2m admissions are locked with these numbers, and 2.5m and biggest MCU movie is looking likely, too. That's was I was hoping for.

[Aristis]

1 hour ago, Olive said:

biggest MCU movie in play?

Would have to be bigger than Ultron (2.422.568) Of course it's possible. We'll know better after next weekend

 

(Deadpool (2.711.055) isn't included in MCU, is it?)

[Olive]

7 hours ago, Aristis said:

Would have to be bigger than Ultron (2.422.568) Of course it's possible. We'll know better after next weekend

 

(Deadpool (2.711.055) isn't included in MCU, is it?)

Deadpool is Fox ,not MCU

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Guardians of the Galaxy 2	749.797	686	1.093	749.797	8.538.018	-	1
2	Fast & Furious 8	273.611	700	391	2.743.742	25.778.923	-52	3
3	The Boss Baby	79.094	695	114	1.516.304	11.386.912	-64	5
4	Beauty and the Beast	72.137	583	124	3.161.346	30.695.658	-53	7
5	The Smurfs 3	59.489	704	85	971.575	7.035.430	-68	4
6	Going in Style	50.860	413	123	314.041	2.669.276	-37	3
7	Happy Burnout	44.944	202	222	67.706	513.357	-	1
8	The Bye Bye Man	29.813	185	161	84.320	723.595	-25	2
9	Conni & Co 2	26.308	535	49	119.270	782.091	-67	2
10	Bienvenue à Marly-Gomont	22.656	129	176	65.087	493.749	-11	2
11	The Shack	21.646	288	75	164.943	1.403.736	-25	4
12	Ghost in the Shell	18.694	360	52	551.512	6.031.643	-55	5
13	Lommbock	8.606	215	40	326.212	2.650.805	-58	6
14	Moonlight	7.594	179	42	391.873	3.113.967	-47	8
15	Débarquement immédiat	7.546	190	40	49.995	349.877	-64	2
16	Les Châteaux de sable	7.456	56	133	9.391	71.433	-	1
17	The Founder	7.240	114	64	47.339	342.005	-53	2
18	Toivon tuolla puolen	7.213	130	55	108.494	837.645	-40	5
19	Lion	7.121	154	46	503.020	4.109.446	-42	10
20	Bibi & Tina 4	6.922	303	23	1.603.268	10.332.860	-73	10

 

That was an excellent opening for GotG2, especially if you consider the harsh drops all around. 2mil total are a given by now and 2,5mil should be possible - let's keep those fingers crossed.

Next weekend: No really big openers, but Get Out comes with some positive buzz and good reviews and should be able to make it to #3 or maybe even #2 if F&F8 falls hard again. Weather will be a major factor, if forecasts hold it will be cloudy to rainy, excellent for family films which might increase after this weekend's drops.

[Aristis]

I hope A Monster calls can do better than expected... 130 cinemas only

[el sid]

Some Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum:

 

New Releases:

Get Out: 23k (released in 500 theaters – a surprisingly big start, not that this wouldn't be a clever decision IMO but I'm surprised that the theaters indeed noticed the buzz around this film, good and very good reviews) – a pretty good start
Expedition Happiness: 28.5k (a docu, 225 theaters, a very good result but not every theater shows it daily)
A Monster Calls: ?k (130, very good reviews)
Victoria - Männer & andere Missgeschicke: ?k (94, good and very good reviews)
Shin Godzilla: ?k (ca. 80, ok to very good reviews, it doesn't get everywhere daily showtimes or several showtimes/day)
Einsamkeit und Sex und Mitleid: ?k (77, mixed reviews between 3.5 and 8/10)
Rules Don't Apply: ?k (50, ok to good reviews)

Holdovers:

GotG2: 40k (last Thursday/first day of release 120k) – mmh, not so great but with mixed weather and since GotG was also always a little bit underestimated in these estimates it still could have an ok hold
Fast 8: 13k (25.5k)
BatB: 3.5k (7k)
Going in Style: 2.5k (5.2k)
Happy Burnout: 3k (6.5k)

 

@Aristis
I hope so too but I think the sad theme causes that people tend to rent it or buy it instead of watching it in theaters. For sure it will have a good WOM and maybe the legs are better than the start. And it could have a successful home-video-life.

Edited May 4, 2017 by el sid

[MrGlass2]

Thanks for the hard work everyone. But I wonder: is weather that important for the box office in Germany/Austria compared to other countries? I understand it is a factor everywhere, but in this subthread it gets mentioned very often.

[miketheavenger]

8 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Thanks for the hard work everyone. But I wonder: is weather that important for the box office in Germany/Austria compared to other countries? I understand it is a factor everywhere, but in this subthread it gets mentioned very often.

It really is. Theatre visits per capita are much lower here than in the U.S, France and other countries, so when it's warm and sunny, going to the movies is often only the 3rd or 4th option behind outdoor activities. Also we don't have nice weather as often as say California, so we want to enjoy it while we can, if you know what I mean.

[IndustriousAngel]

2 hours ago, el sid said:

Expedition Happiness: 28.5k (a docu, 225 theaters, a very good result but not every theater shows it daily)

 

That's quite the number, wow - I mean, a weekend PTA of, say, 400 doesn't look that impressive but if you consider the low number of screenings, those must be packed. Never heard about that movie at all

[el sid]

30 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

 

That's quite the number, wow - I mean, a weekend PTA of, say, 400 doesn't look that impressive but if you consider the low number of screenings, those must be packed. Never heard about that movie at all

I didn't hear about it either. I read that it's a documentary about a guy and his girlfriend travelling from North America to South America. Obviously his first film about visiting Canada was well liked...