BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[el sid]

And some Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film:

The new releases:

The Post: 20k – clearly underestimated yesterday probably because of the I guess a bit older target group that doesn't buy/reservate tickets in advance as much as younger moviegoers do
Wendy 2: 10k
Heilstätten: 7.5k → 60k OW predicted so far, in line with expectations

The holdovers:

Fifty Shades Freed: 45k (actuals last Thursday 90k)
Black Panther: 35k (75k)

[IndustriousAngel]

Saturday update - everything lower except The Post (first estimates seemed too good to be true anyway)

[Aristis]

3rd Trend:

FSOG3 (305k, -47%), BP (280k, -33%) and The Post (175k) are up.

The others, especially Family movies are down.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Aristis

[IndustriousAngel]

That's fantastic for "The Post"

[fastclock]

Deadline is saying BP is higher than 50S this weekend.

[Aristis]

20 minutes ago, fastclock said:

Deadline is saying BP is higher than 50S this weekend.

In €. Last WE BP had a TP of 11,35€ while FSOG3 had 9,4€. So BP should be €3,1M+ and FSOG3 at €2,8M+.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Aristis

[IndustriousAngel]

Actuals tomorrow but latest estimates seemed spot-on. In Austria, same Top2 with Arthur&Claire on 3rd, should at least reach 100k total.

 

Btw, Autria's 2017 numbers are now final and while we have the same leader as Germany (Fack Ju Göhte 3), #2 is not Star Wars 8 but Despicable Me 3 (a close race).

[el sid]

Spot-or even a little bit better:

#1 FSF 305k/2.395M
#2 BP 287.5k/805k
#3 The Post 162.5k/175k
#4 Die kleine Hexe 137.5k/1.105M

#5 Wendy 2 105k/130k
#6  Wonder 72.5k/905k
#7 Heilstätten 57.5k
#8 Hilfe 47.5k/725k
#9 Shape of Water 47.5/175k
#10 Maze Runner 3 45k/565k
#11 Billboards 37.5k/500k

#12 Ferdinand 20k/ 1.045M

#13 Kobiety Mafii 20k
#14 All the Money in the World 20k/80k
#15 Le Sens de la fête 20k/230k

Edited February 26, 2018 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Fifty Shades of Grey 3	305.602	736	415	2.393.636	21.917.081	-47	3
2	Black Panther	288.991	572	505	809.862	9.016.879	-30	2
3	The Post	167.505	306	547	181.791	1.588.996	-	1
4	Die kleine Hexe	137.923	773	178	1.105.912	7.292.252	-37	4
5	Wendy 2	105.915	560	189	130.990	874.936	-	1
6	Wonder	72.655	622	117	909.790	7.257.928	-32	5
7	Heilstätten	57.202	257	223	57.202	521.991	-	1
8	Hilfe, ich hab meine Eltern geschrumpft	47.576	566	84	721.917	4.683.707	-35	6
9	The Shape of Water	47.019	229	205	174.520	1.437.926	-34	2
10	Maze Runner 3	44.322	460	96	562.821	5.912.990	-45	4
11	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	36.966	354	104	499.817	4.004.850	-31	5
-	MET: La Boheme	32.409	199	163	32.409	938.835	-	1
12	Ferdinand	21.293	349	61	1.045.236	7.303.153	-27	11
13	Kobiety Mafii	19.977	63	317	19.977	246.605	-	1
14	All the Money in the World	19.925	258	77	76.786	697.769	-54	2
15	Le Sens de la fête	19.804	204	97	231.184	1.854.894	-39	4
16	Jumanji	18.790	287	65	1.955.329	18.723.820	-39	10
17	Dieses bescheuerte Herz	15.406	346	45	2.001.235	16.605.268	-36	10
18	Criminal Squad	14.892	268	56	219.979	1.997.025	-46	4
19	The Darkest Hour	14.348	217	66	332.254	2.882.651	-38	6
20	Coco	12.089	241	50	1.323.786	10.039.599	-33	13

An ok weekend - The Post with a nice opening (highest PTA, look for a slight expansion) while Wendy 2 opened a bit behind expectations. Domestic dramedy Dieses bescheuerte Herz has finally crossed 2mil total, good after the lukewarm start!

Next weekend: Life for family releases won't get easier with Die Biene Maja 2 - an opening in the 100-150k range seems feasible. For bigger children, Red Sparrow will deliver some action - I expect a run similar to Atomic Blonde, with a reasonable opening (same range as the bee or a bit higher) but hard drops. Also opening: Game Night, which might surprise given the current lack of competition comedies. #1 might become a close race between Panther and Shades.

[Giesi]

Marvel‘s top superheroes first feature films after 11 days

948.874 GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY
867.107 DR STRANGE
809.862 BLACK PANTHER
654.870 THOR
555.857 SPIDER-MAN HC
484.818 IRON MAN
411.869 HULK
320.796 ANT-MAN
259.918 CAPTAIN AMERICA

 

BB already fell behind Strange after 50k more on OW. It shows that the „first black maincast superhero“ novelty just doesn‘t work here like it does in other parts of the world.

[IndustriousAngel]

Sparrow is off to a good start, should open to >200k, so it'll do better than Atomic Blonde (which topped out at <300k total ...)

[el sid]

The Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum:

The new releases:

Red Sparrow: 33k (released in 521 theaters, very mixed reviews between 2 and 8/10) - very acceptable indeed if it holds
Game Night: 6.5k (475, good reviews)
Die Biene Maja 2 - Die Honigspiele: ?k (462, mixed reviews between 2 and 7/10)
Das schweigende Klassenzimmer: 2k (115, mostly good and very good reviews)
Call Me by Your Name: 2.5k (109, mostly excellent reviews)

The holdovers:

Fifty Shades Freed: 23k (actuals last Thursday 45k)
Black Panther: 18k (35k)
The Post: 11k (20k) - was underestimated by far last Thursday
Heilstätten: 1k (7.5k) - was also underestimated last week, still that`s low

Shape of Water: 5.5k (from here the numbers in brackets are only the estimates from last Thursday; 7k)
Wonder: 4.5k (7.5k)
Billboards: 3.5k (5k)
Maze Runner 3: 2k (5k)

Edited March 1, 2018 by el sid

[George Parr]

Surprising no.1 after the first trend:

 

#1 Black Panther 200k (-31%)

#2 FSoG3 165k (-46%)

#3 Red Sparrow 155k

#4 The Post 140k (-16% / -23% with previews)

#5 Biene Maja 2 100k

[el sid]

And the Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film:

The new releases:

Red Sparrow: 22.6k – was overestimated by ca. 1/3 yesterday, the reservations looked indeed pretty good in „my“ theaters too so I`m very disappointed by this actual
Game Night: 9k → 82.k OW estimated in the first trend from insidekino.de, a liitle bit under the expectations

Die Biene Maja 2 - Die Honigspiele: 5.5k
Das schweigende Klassenzimmer: 4.1k → 35k OW in the frist trend
Call Me by Your Name: 3k → 35k OW

The holdovers:

Fifty Shades Freed: 23.5k (actuals last Thursday 45k)
Black Panther: 23k (35k) – even a bit better than in the estimates
The Post: 17.5k (20k)

[IndustriousAngel]

wow, I had seen Sparrow much higher ... obviously it's doing much better in certain locations than in others. Maja on the lower end of expectations.

[George Parr]

2nd trend is up, only a few changes, the most noticeable being Biene Maja.

 

#1 Black Panther 200k

#2 FSoG3 165k

#3 Red Sparrow 160k (up 5k)

#4 The Post 140k

#5 Game Night 85k

#6 Die kleine Hexe 80k

#7 Biene Maja 2 75k (down 25k)

#8 Wendy 2 65k

#9 Wonder 47.5k

#10 Heilstätten 40k

 

rest at http://www.insidekino.com/News.htm

[IndustriousAngel]

Wow, that's a big drop from the first Maja ...

And I was wrong in believeing we might see a close race for #1, this is a worse drop for Shades than expected.

[Aristis]

Great 3rd Trend! All movies being up:

 

BP 215k (-26%) Wow... Will have made near 1,1M admissions, better than Spiderman, WW or Justice Leaugue!

Red Sparrow 200k Great!

FSOG3 175k (-43%)

The Post 155k (-8%/-15%) Great!

Game Night 105k

Kleine Hexe 92,5k (-33%)

Biene Maja 85k

Wendy2 75k (-29%/-43%)

Wonder 50k (-32%) Should be between 975k and 1M admissions after this weekend.

 

Shape of Water 35k (-26%)

Call me by your name 32,5k

Billboards 30k (-19%)

 

Edited March 4, 2018 by Aristis

[Taruseth]

24 minutes ago, Aristis said:

Great 3rd Trend! All movies being up:

 

BP 215k (-26%) Wow... Will have made near 1,1M admissions, better than Spiderman, WW or Justice Leaugue!

Red Sparrow 200k Great!

FSOG3 175k (-43%)

The Post 155k (-8%/-15%) Great!

Game Night 105k

Kleine Hexe 92,5k (-33%)

Biene Maja 85k

Wendy2 75k (-29%/-43%)

Wonder 50k (-32%) Should be between 975k and 1M admissions after this weekend.

 

Shape of Water 35k (-26%)

Call me by your name 32,5

Billboards 30k (-19%)

 

 

BP and Red Sparrow look far better and the Post hold is really good.

[IndustriousAngel]

yesterday's estimates were way down it seems ... very nice now and Sparrow is coming close to what I thought it should do. Terrific numbers from Post and Panther, and family stuff is not so shabby either. Satisfying weekend if those final estimates hold!