BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

OK, if I was thinking First Man might make it into the Top3, that was probably wishful thinking ... the way it's preselling it will be tough to reach 100k OW.

[IndustriousAngel]

First estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: BR - 300k (-25%)

#2: Nut - 160k (-38%, ouch)

#3: 25km/k - 150k (-11%, sweet)

#4 Simple Favor with 140k incl. Wed, not too good

[Aristis]

45 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

#2: Nut - 160k (-38%, ouch)

I don't think that's too bad since last WE was inflated. However, it's worse than other holds so it's not too good either...

Could be close to 500k after 2nd WE, 1M, sadly, may not happen.

[el sid]

And some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt: Film):

The new releases:

A Simple Favor (272): 12k
First Man (released in 278 theaters): 8.5k → 65k admissions OW in the first trend, far under the expectations
Overlord (273): 4.5k → 37.5k admissions OW, also under the expectations
Thugs of Hindustan (38): 2.8k
Elliot: The Littlest Reindeer (170): ?k → 15k OW

The holdovers (they look more disillusioning than they are because last week had several helps):

Bohemian Rhapsody: 35k (actuals last Thursday 90k)
25 km/h: 12k (37k) → 120k admissions OW in the first trend
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms: 11k (65k)
Der Vorname: 10k (33.5k) → ca. 100k admissions OW
Halloween: ?k (65k) → also ca. 100k admissions OW

[miketheavenger]

2nd trend has Bohemian Rhapsody even higher at 325k (-19%) and A Simple Favor at 150k. All of the other films stay the same.

[IndustriousAngel]

final estimates a bit lower, still a good weekend

[FantasticBeasts]

2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

final estimates a bit lower, still a good weekend

What do you expect for FB2 next week?

[IndustriousAngel]

 

6 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said:

What do you expect for FB2 next week?

an opening in the 800k region

[FantasticBeasts]

37 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

 

an opening in the 800k region

Are you basing this on presales or just guessing? 

(Explain a bit If you can)

[IndustriousAngel]

haven't looked at presales, just took the opening of part1 and went a little lower as was the case with the HP franchise

[Noctis]

How are presales?

[IndustriousAngel]

8 hours ago, Noctis said:

How are presales?

at my theater, midnights about 5% sold ...

[el sid]

The Monday update:

#1 BR 317.5/930k
#2 The Nutcracker 165k/460k
#3 25km/h 120/400k
#4 A Simple Favor 97.5k/147.5k
#5 Halloween 95k/980k
#6 JE3 75k/830k
#7 First Man 72.5k/77.5k - a bit better at least
#8 TI2 57.5k/2.050M
#9 Smallfoot 50k/510k
#10 ASIB 35k/835k
#11 Overlord 32.5k

#12 Venom 30k/1.335M
#13 Ballon 22.5k/765k
#14 Der Trafikant 20k/65k
...
Elliot: The LIttlest Reindeer 17.5k

 

To the presales of FB 2: A diligent member of insidekino.de adds all reservated and sold tickets of FB 2 together and on Saturday it had ca. 1/3 (5k against 15k) of the sells of the first movie. Members say it should better pick up tickets now or it will become difficult with a 1M opening (what IndustriousAngel already said). My hope is that usually interest in a movie increases pretty late here in Germany (very often just during the release week) and it could be the same here.

Edited November 12, 2018 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Bohemian Rhapsody	319.564	602	531	929.563	8.854.593	-20	2
2	The Nutcracker	165.854	551	301	460.469	4.113.826	-36	2
3	25 km/h	121.412	455	267	399.276	3.327.443	-28	2
4	Der Vorname	97.920	516	190	700.941	6.019.961	-33	4
5	A Simple Favor	97.361	275	354	147.044	1.184.853	-	1
6	Halloween	95.925	547	175	982.586	8.679.608	-63	3
7	Johnny English 3	74.691	549	136	830.766	6.606.074	-55	4
8	First Man	72.402	278	260	78.817	754.057	-	1
9	The Incredibles 2	57.482	642	90	2.048.812	16.973.827	-53	7
10	Smallfoot	49.627	615	81	509.468	3.507.264	-45	5
11	A Star Is Born	35.748	399	90	833.035	7.450.614	-47	6
12	Overlord	32.342	273	118	32.940	293.229	-	1
13	Venom	31.255	307	102	1.335.581	13.578.511	-56	6
14	Ballon	21.829	439	50	759.317	6.431.050	-47	7
15	Der Trafikant	20.124	92	219	62.672	506.936	-28	2
16	Elliot: The Littlest Reindeer	17.749	170	104	17.843	117.848	-	1
17	Goosebumps 2	17.138	344	50	152.794	1.109.368	-59	3
18	Klassentreffen 1.0	16.495	296	56	1.109.145	9.646.712	-54	8
19	Pettersson und Findus - Findus zieht um	13.476	434	31	499.706	3.155.434	-52	9
20	Abgeschnitten	8.527	155	55	181.747	1.688.050	-55	5

Bohemian Rhapsody was on top again, with a really sweet drop espacially seen in the context of the other releases! The openers stayed on the lower end of expectations (in First Man's case, even below …)

Next weekend: With the 2nd Fantastic Beasts movie, plus a few strong holdovers, a nice weekend is coming - even if presales are not looking that good, it should top the weekend with ease; about 800k admissions are expected. And Rhapsody should see a good hold once more!

[el sid]

Now it looks a bit better for FB 2 presales-wise. Yesterday, it were 8.5k (up from 4.8k on Saturday) against 15.1k for the first movie. Reservations where I looked were evenly spread over the following days (Wednesday-Sunday, with Sunday being so far a bit weaker) so at least on this weekend it doesn't seem to be frontloaded.

[IndustriousAngel]

for some movies presales don't tell that much ... at my theater presales were extremely poor but in fact the midnight shows were at about 50% in the end. As a rule of thumb - the older the audience, the more presales.

[James]

1.2m in previews. Is that good? 

[el sid]

1 hour ago, James said:

1.2m in previews. Is that good? 

At insidekino.de/forum it says for FB 825k/910k admissions OW. Means the first movie had ca. 85k admissions in previews (over the whole Wednesday like this time). I don't know what the actual average ticket price is in Germany (e.g. in mathäser it's 12.90-13.90 Euro) but I would guess that the admission numbers of FB and FB 2 could be pretty similar then.

Edited November 15, 2018 by el sid

[Aristis]

1st Trend looks great for FB2!

 

It could get to more than 1M over five days (FB1: 911k). InsideKino predicts 1,075M with a 4-day OW of 965k (FB1: 827k). It's not safe yet, but it really should open stronger than FB1!

 

BR has a good drop again with 260k (-19%). Should be around 1,25M after Sunday.

Nut115k (-31%) 500k+

25km/h 95k (-21%)

Simple Favor 75k (-23%)

Edited November 16, 2018 by Aristis

[James]

8 minutes ago, Aristis said:

1st Trend looks great for FB2!

 

It could get to more than 1M over five days (FB1: 911k). InsideKino predicts 1,075M with a 4-day OW of 965k (FB1: 827k). It's not safe yet, but it really should open stronger than FB1!

 

BR has a good drop again with 260k (-19%). Should be around 1,25M after Sunday.

Nut115k (-31%) 500k+

25km/h 95k (-21%)

Simple Favor 75k (-23%)

Wow, that would be fantastic!