BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

final numbers a bit higher, FB2 in front. In Austria, Grinch won the weekend (FB2 has much steeper drops in Austria than in Germany)

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Fantastic Beasts 2	384.673	700	550	2.521.128	25.725.034	-39	3
2	The Grinch	332.918	656	507	406.419	3.394.259	-	1
3	Bohemian Rhapsody	134.763	721	187	1.821.543	16.921.763	-37	5
4	The Nutcracker	57.154	566	101	826.463	7.113.836	-42	5
5	25 km/h	43.563	563	77	703.258	5.819.841	-43	5
6	Müslüm	30.978	88	352	128.365	1.172.143	-13	3
7	Der Vorname	30.885	490	63	929.545	7.892.647	-38	7
8	A Simple Favor	30.615	304	101	375.409	3.118.257	-43	4
9	Night School	25.007	224	112	162.285	1.315.125	-38	3
10	Elliot: The Littlest Reindeer	19.698	377	52	101.500	653.343	-33	4
11	Peppermint	19.418	219	89	35.718	256.324	-	1
12	Crooked House	16.274	213	76	19.186	161.756	-	1
13	The Girl in the Spider's Web	14.983	400	37	90.873	725.386	-66	2
14	Johnny English 3	13.972	261	54	935.486	7.403.771	-50	7
15	First Man	12.773	181	71	213.295	1.972.546	-57	4
16	The Incredibles 2	12.757	393	32	2.150.419	17.694.054	-59	10
17	Zimna Wojna	11.919	110	108	41.401	325.027	-36	2
18	Smallfoot	11.451	439	26	614.519	4.189.723	-67	8
19	A Star Is Born	8.989	181	50	900.289	8.039.402	-39	9
20	Halloween	7.801	228	34	1.077.505	9.509.126	-58	6

Not too good, this weekend - the openers weaker than expected and hard drops. Fantastic Beasts 2 held ok considering the other drops …

Next weekend: A lot of releases, christmas season is starting strong and one can only hope the multiple movies don't cannibalise each other. Tabaluga is for the youngest kids, Unknown User 2 for the horror crowd (as is, a little bit, Anna and the Apocalypse), Widows for the thriller-addicted (and women), Lindgren biopic Astrid for the educated, and for comedy lovers the latest Fitz/Schweighöfer coproduction 100 Dinge which might win the weekend. Add some smaller but attractive releases (Noe's Climax is the most interesting  one) and we might see a strong weekend with no standout release but overall high admissions.

[IndustriousAngel]

after Crooked House last week, we seem to have the next flop with Widows ...  donestic comedy 100 Dinge might win the weekend

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

after Crooked House last week, we seem to have the next flop with Widows ...  donestic comedy 100 Dinge might win the weekend

The Grinch will be number 1.

[IndustriousAngel]

10 hours ago, efialtes76 said:

The Grinch will be number 1.

seems you're right, first estimates from insidekino.de have Grinch at 275k, FB2 225 and 100Dinge 225 incl. previews, so #3 for the weekend

[el sid]

Some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt: Film):

The new releases:

100 Dinge (a German comedy, released in 600 theaters): 23k, had already 40k admissions on Wednesday, would mean 185k over the four days
Tabaluga - Der Film (a German animation film, 568): 11k → 125k admissions OW in the first trend
Unfriended: Dark Web (345, the predecessor had 700k total admissions): 6.3k → 70k OW
Widows (316): 5.5k → 45k OW
Astrid (104): 4.5k → 32.5k OW, seems that Mark_G is pretty conservative here
With the exception of Astrid, the films start a little bit under the expectations. OTOH it could have become worse.

The holdovers:

Fantastic Beasts 2: 27k (actuals last Thursday 42k)
The Grinch: 26k (20k) - it increased!

Edited December 7, 2018 by el sid

[Aristis]

2nd Trend:

 

Grinch 300k (-10% ecluding previews/ -26% incl.)

 

FB2 240k (-38%) Around 2,86M after Sunday

    FB1 4th WE: 264k (-32%) 2,55M

 

100 Dinge 220k

BR 120k (-11%) May be able to cross 2M this WE

Tabaluga 110k

Unknown User 65k

Widows 45k

Nutcracker 42,5k (-25%)

Edited December 8, 2018 by Aristis

[KP1025]

Great hold by the Grinch. Where do you see it finishing? 

[el sid]

1 hour ago, KP1025 said:

Great hold by the Grinch. Where do you see it finishing? 

Mark_G's (insidekino.de) first prediction was 3M admissions. Then after Grinch opened with 406k admissions (incl. previews) last weekend, he changed it to 2.5M admissions. But with that nice hold it could go up again. So it looks like it will reach 2.5M+ admissions, maybe 3M are still possible, but that depends on the holiday holds of course.

Edited December 8, 2018 by el sid

[abra]

3. Trend:
Der Grinch (350T), Phantastische Tierwesen - Grindelwalds Verbrechen (260T), 100 Dinge (225T), Bohemian Rhapsody (115T), Tabaluga (120T), Unknown User - Dark Web (67,5T), Der Nussknacker und die vier Reiche (50T), Widows - Tödliche Witwen (47,5T), 25 km/h (30T), Astrid (27,5T).

 

insidekino.com

Edited December 9, 2018 by abra

[miketheavenger]

Amazing for Grinch and good for the other movies, too. November and December will make up at least a little bit for an overall atrocious year at the german box office.

[George Parr]

At this point it feels likely that FB2 will win the year, or at least top Infinity War should another movie surprise and beat them both. Talking admissions of course, money should likely stay in favour if IW.

 

IW's lead should be down to about 60k after this weekend. With the latest weekdays being in favour of FB2 100k+ to 87k, and the third weekend going to FB2 260k to 185k. IW's upcoming weekdays stayed about flat, and the movie actually went up slightly from 4th to 5th weekend, but the combined total of those two weekends still only amounts to about 150k, something that FB2 could best just with its 4th weekend as it would need to drop 40%+ to drop below that total. Though even if it were slightly below that, the 5th weekend alone should still make up the entire difference between the two movies.

 

With the holidays coming up, FB2's legs should be better than what IW could offer, even with plenty of new movies arriving.

[IndustriousAngel]

Very good weekend even if there were not 6 releases with >100k admissions as some hoped ... Sunday must have been really strong because most releases' actuals went up from last estimates.

[el sid]

And even The Grinch increased again.These are the Monday updates of the Top 12 movies:

#1 The Grinch 360k/825k
#2 FB2 265k/2.85M
#3 100 Dinge 197.5k/235k
#4 BR 115k/1.99M
#5 Tabaluga 100k/120k
#6 Unfriended2 60k/72.5k
#7 Nutcracker 52.5k/895k
#8 Widows 42.5k/50k
#9 25km/h 32.5k/755k
#10 Astrid 30k
#11 Der Vorname 22.5k/965k

#12 Elliot 22.5k/130k

[Aristis]

8 hours ago, el sid said:

#1 The Grinch 360k/825k
#2 FB2 265k/2.85M

That's great for the Grinch, up 8% from the OW (excluding previews). That should indicate a long run through Christmas - maybe we can even dream of 3M (just dream yet of course ).

 

And FB2 is holding great, last two WE it mirrored FB1. 3,5M should be the least it'll do Germany is doing its Job on this Franchise (other than UK... )

Edited December 10, 2018 by Aristis

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	The Grinch	360.983	674	536	827.732	6.789.567	+8	2
2	Fantastic Beasts 2	265.169	700	379	2.886.762	29.364.781	-31	4
3	100 Dinge	198.494	600	331	237.428	2.063.350	-	1
4	Bohemian Rhapsody	116.367	764	152	1.990.530	18.441.707	-14	6
5	Tabaluga	100.085	570	176	121.630	831.988	-	1
6	Unknown User 2	60.015	344	174	73.148	607.670	-	1
7	The Nutcracker	51.938	567	92	891.761	7.617.462	-9	6
8	Widows	41.544	316	131	48.655	424.959	-	1
9	25 km/h	33.415	512	65	753.564	6.221.289	-23	6
10	Astrid	29.678	105	283	35.093	291.521	-	1
11	Der Vorname	24.311	432	56	968.136	8.245.300	-21	8
12	Elliot: The Littlest Reindeer	22.312	440	51	128.175	813.686	+13	5
13	Müslüm	18.517	87	213	155.550	1.414.945	-40	4
14	A Simple Favor	17.054	223	76	400.664	3.336.326	-44	5
15	Night School	12.094	147	82	178.996	1.454.419	-52	4
16	Augsburger Puppenkist	9.512	331	29	15.594	94.049	+68	2
17	Hedefim Sensin	8.797	39	226	8.797	80.352	-	1
18	Smallfoot	8.513	303	28	624.516	4.249.131	-26	9
19	Johnny English 3	7.690	191	40	945.789	7.480.507	-45	8
20	The Incredibles 2	7.655	263	29	2.159.286	17.755.941	-40	11

Good weekend with a lot of attractive releases, no sellout situations (except the Lord-of-the-Rings-triplefeatures) but nice business nontheless. The Grinch seems to have gained some momentum and will see a healthy run over the holidays, 3mil might be possible!

Next weekend: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse is difficult to predict - Spidey is still one of the most popular heroes but animation gets usually buried in the afternoon shows. A six-digit opening should be a safe bet but will it be closer to 100k or 300k? No idea … the same goes for Mortal Engines which is not a well-known property but has Peter Jackson attached - again, 100k should be easy but 300k seem pretty high. Since there's no new competition for family films, those should see fine holds (or increases) again - The Grinch might win a second weekend!

[IndustriousAngel]

well according to presales at my theater, the "easy" 100k won't be that easy, neither for Spider-Verse nor Mortal Engines ... let's hope for holdovers 😟

[IndustriousAngel]

with late bookings and walkins, SPider-Verse is now about double as "strong" as Mortal Engines but both don't make much of a splash

[Aristis]

1st Trend:

 

Grinch 275k (-24%) 1,16M after the WE

FB2 150k (-43%) 3,1M+

100 Dinge 150k (-24%)

Motral Engines 120k

Spiderverse 85k

BR 75k (-35%)

Tabaluga 75k (-25%)

 

Hopefully there will be some corrections up over the WE...

 

FB2 would be around the same as FB1 again,

150k vs 157k, 3,1M+ vs 2,84M

Edited December 14, 2018 by Aristis

[IndustriousAngel]

wow, real baaad weekend

#1: Grinch - 275k (-24%)

#2/3: FB2 - 100Dinge with 150k each (43% drop for FB2)

#4: ME - 120k

#5: Spider - 85k

 

with two supposedly big openers, this should have been much better - and bad drops despite the underperforming openers, seems people got better things to do than go to the movies this weekend ...