BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[Aristis]

11 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:

How much is the ATP in dollars for this movie here? 

Around 14,4 atm (€13,63 to be precise) 

[Danhjpn]

39 minutes ago, Aristis said:

2,55M until Sunday, today (Tuesday) it passes 3M and it should be 4,3M+ next Sunday. 

 

So it needs x1.8 after next Sunday to reach 8M ...

 

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top14 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Avatar 2	735.252	737	998	2.547.800	34.733.093	-36	2
2	Puss in Boots 2	120.980	606	200	149.080	1.257.500	-	1
3	Der Räuber Hotzenplotz	44.285	708	63	299.694	2.176.588	-42	3
4	Oskars Kleid	39.434	512	77	40.964	379.038	-	1
5	Teddybjørnens jul	23.777	565	42	201.159	1.307.921	-13	6
6	I Wanna Dance with Somebody	23.432	382	61	38.979	385.896	-	1
7	Black Panther 2	14.099	221	64	1.418.414	16.181.897	-56	7
8	Die Schule der magischen Tiere 2	10.118	391	26	2.383.567	17.441.560	-53	13
9	Violent Night	9.892	238	42	150.985	1.451.454	-59	4
10	Strange World	9.774	328	30	229.425	1.821.062	-68	5
11	Rheingold	8.553	109	78	957.070	9.580.218	-34	9
12	Einfach mal was Schönes	8.333	391	21	536.384	4.972.751	-71	6
13	Hui Buh und das Hexenschloss	5.768	327	18	464.274	3.550.419	-61	8
14	The Menu	5.444	164	33	265.385	2.504.884	-62	6

Massive weekend for Avatar 2, so-so for every other release. Strange World <10k admissions in week 5, what's become of Disney Animation?! Puss in Boots 2 stayed behind my expectations … as did the Withney Houston biopic.

In Austria, once more, better and/or different numbers … Avatar 2 is already past 320k admissions here, Puss-in-Boots opened within my expectations (24k), so much better, and Strange World had an increase and should be somewhere around 40k by now, nearly 75% ahead of Germany. I Wanna Dance flopped equally hard, though.

Next weekend: No big openers but with the low levels we're seeing atm (except Avatar of course) even a small release like domestic bestseller adaption Was man von hier aus sehen kann might make it into the top 5! Of course, general business should be much better, we'll see some healthy increases, some releases should more than double this weekend's numbers.

[Taruseth]

Avatar 2 weekdays: 1100k (total 3650k)

 

That's great. Apparently, yesterday was the best day since Covid-19 started.

 

So maybe it can increase on the weekend. At least today and tomorrow should be really good. So 800k (hopefully more) - wouldn't be surprised with 700k though.

Edited December 29, 2022 by Taruseth

[Sophia Jane]

Avatar try to best Germany All-time B.O record

[Taruseth]

9 minutes ago, Bruce said:

Avatar try to best Germany All-time B.O record

Won't happen.

Admissions are impossible:

The Jungle Book has 27.3m and Titanic has 18.8m (only movies after 1958 considered) all others below 15m.

 

In € Titanic with 126.6m and Avatar with 119.2m are also pretty safe.

Third place TFA with 102.7m might be reached, but that would need 7.7-7.8m admissions.

And $ won't work either because Avatar had incredible ER (so did like $160-170m).

Right now I'd say 7.5m admissions and €99-100m (~$105m) - and I am probably on the more optimistic side.

Edited December 29, 2022 by Taruseth

[Sophia Jane]

5 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Won't happen.

Admissions are impossible:

The Jungle Book has 27.3m and Titanic has 18.8m (only movies after 1958 considered) all others below 15m.

 

In € Titanic with 126.6m and Avatar with 119.2m are also pretty safe.

Third place TFA with 102.7m might be reached, but that would need 7.7-7.8m admissions.

And $ won't work either because Avatar had incredible ER (so did like $160-170m).

Right now I'd say 7.5m admissions and €99-100m (~$105m) - and I am probably on the more optimistic side.

When I say B.O record you should know that is gross 

I think depends on Expenisve ATP it will have chance to do

[IndustriousAngel]

7 hours ago, Taruseth said:

So maybe it can increase on the weekend.

that's pretty much a given, even Rogue One increased a bit on the comparable weekend; the question is if it can reach 1mil again.

[IndustriousAngel]

early weekend estimates for Germany from insidekino.de:

#1: Avatar 2 - 900k admissions (+22%)

#2: Puss in Boots 2 - 200k (+65%)

#3: Hotzenplotz - 90k (+203% !!)

[Aristis]

So Avatar will be around 4,55M at Sunday. Following RO again it'd reach 5,7M+ next WE - it's holding better though so hopefully it'll be more like 5,8M+ already. 

[Taruseth]

5 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

early weekend estimates for Germany from insidekino.de:

#1: Avatar 2 - 900k admissions (+22%)

#2: Puss in Boots 2 - 200k (+65%)

#3: Hotzenplotz - 90k (+203% !!)

400k on Thursday (or a little less) - 5.2m € -> ATP only a little above 13 € (that's low)

 

In 2016 RO had the following weekend drops -55% then +2% and -31% (dropping to second place about 25 % behind Passenger).

Avatar has done -36% and now about +22 %.

Will it be able to do -15% for 750k next weekend?

My hope for the future:

Avatar:

OD: 174k

OWend: 1157k (Total 1332k)

OWdays: 481k (Total 1813k)

2nd Wend: 735k (Total 2548k)

2nd Wdays: 1100k (Total 3650k)

3rd Wend: 900k (Total 4550k)

3rd Wdays: 550k (Total 5100k)

4th Wend: 750k (Total 5850k) (-17%)

4th Wdays: 150k (Total 6000k)

5th Wend: 500k (Total 6500k) (-33%)

5th Wdays: 100k (Total 6600k)

6th Wend: 400k (Total 7000k) (-20%)

6th Wdays: 50k (Total 7050k)

7th Wend: 250k (Total 7300k) (-38%)

7th Wdays: 30k (Total 7330k)

8th Wend: 150k (Total 7480k) (-40%)

8th Wdays: 20k (Total 7500k)

9th Wend: 100k (Total 7600k) (-33%) - I think Titanic is shown again this weekend

9th Wdays: 20k (Total 7620k)

10th Wend: 80k (Total 7700k) (-20%)

10th Wdays: 15k (Total 7715k)

After that another 250k for 7965k total and ≈103m € ≈ $109m

Edited December 30, 2022 by Taruseth

[Danhjpn]

1 hour ago, Taruseth said:

400k on Thursday (or a little less) - 5.2m € -> ATP only a little above 13 € (that's low)

 

In 2016 RO had the following weekend drops -55% then +2% and -31% (dropping to second place about 25 % behind Passenger).

Avatar has done -36% and now about +22 %.

Will it be able to do -15% for 750k next weekend?

My hope for the future:

Avatar:

OD: 174k

OWend: 1157k (Total 1332k)

OWdays: 481k (Total 1813k)

2nd Wend: 735k (Total 2548k)

2nd Wdays: 1100k (Total 3650k)

3rd Wend: 900k (Total 4550k)

3rd Wdays: 550k (Total 5100k)

4th Wend: 750k (Total 5850k) (-17%)

4th Wdays: 150k (Total 6000k)

5th Wend: 500k (Total 6500k) (-33%)

5th Wdays: 100k (Total 6600k)

6th Wend: 400k (Total 7000k) (-20%)

6th Wdays: 50k (Total 7050k)

7th Wend: 250k (Total 7300k) (-38%)

7th Wdays: 30k (Total 7330k)

8th Wend: 150k (Total 7480k) (-40%)

8th Wdays: 20k (Total 7500k)

9th Wend: 100k (Total 7600k) (-33%) - I think Titanic is shown again this weekend

9th Wdays: 20k (Total 7620k)

10th Wend: 80k (Total 7700k) (-20%)

10th Wdays: 15k (Total 7715k)

After that another 250k for 7965k total and ≈103m € ≈ $109m

8M admits is more round and juicy number 

[Aristis]

On 12/23/2022 at 9:14 AM, Aristis said:

Thursday

 

#1 Avatar 2 200k (+33%) [€2,7M]

#2 Puss in Boots 2 35k [€285k]

#3 Oskars Kleid 13,5k [€120k]

#4 Hotzenplotz 13k (+100%) [€100k]

#5 ...dance with somebody 7k [€70k]

Thursday

 

#1 Avatar 2 400k (+100%) [€5,2M]

#2 Puss in Boots 2 85k (+143%) [€720k]

#3 Hotzenplotz 37k (+185%) [€275k]

#4 Oskars Kleid 29k (+115%) [€270k]

#5 ...dance with somebody 16k (+129%) [€160k]

[Sophia Jane]

9 minutes ago, Aristis said:

Thursday

 

#1 Avatar 2 400k (+100%) [€5,2M]

#2 Puss in Boots 2 85k (+143%) [€720k]

#3 Hotzenplotz 37k (+185%) [€275k]

#4 Oskars Kleid 29k (+115%) [€270k]

#5 ...dance with somebody 16k (+129%) [€160k]

that’s insane

The box office for Thursday is even bigger than China

[nydedan]

the french and the german really love AVATAR

[Aristis]

2nd Trend

 

#1 Avatar 2 1M (+36%) 4,65M 

#2 PiB2 205k (+69%/+37%) 565k

#3 Hotzenplotz 90k (+105%) 

 

Awesome for Avatar. Just needs 1,026M for 10th best 3rd WE 👀

[Taruseth]

Saturday Trend:

 

Avatar: 1000k! (that makes 8m more likely).

Puss in Boots 2: 205k

Hotzenplotz: 90k

Oskars Kleid: 75k

I wanna dance with somebody: 42.5k

Schule der magischen Tiere 2: 35k (I think this is the 14th week in the Top 10)

Was man von hier aus sehen kann: 27.5k

 

Top Gun stayed in the Top 10 for 18 weeks and Minions for 16 weeks.

 

And maybe - maybe we might see Avatar getting to 9m - like 1 % chance.

Edited December 31, 2022 by Taruseth

[LPLC]

3 minutes ago, Aristis said:

2nd Trend

 

#1 Avatar 2 1M (+36%) 4,65M 

#2 PiB2 205k (+69%/+37%) 565k

#3 Hotzenplotz 90k (+105%) 

 

Awesome for Avatar. Just needs 1,026M for 10th best 3rd WE 👀

Incredible !

[Taruseth]

7 minutes ago, Aristis said:

2nd Trend

 

#1 Avatar 2 1M (+36%) 4,65M 

#2 PiB2 205k (+69%/+37%) 565k

#3 Hotzenplotz 90k (+105%) 

 

Awesome for Avatar. Just needs 1,026M for 10th best 3rd WE 👀

You are so quick - and even if it barely misses the 3rd weekend for 10th place on 4th weekend only about 680k are needed.

[Aristis]

37 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

You are so quick - and even if it barely misses the 3rd weekend for 10th place on 4th weekend only about 680k are needed.

Just got the notification from Twitter 👀

 

And playing like RO it'd reach 600k midweek - which would be good enough for 5th biggest 3rd week. Even if it doesn't do that great, 1,33M will be enough to top SW7 for 10th best so it's getting there in any case.