BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

hmmm... H8 is struggling, might drop >50% from Django. I was sure it would come in lower but not by that much?!

[el sid]

Sadly, again no Thursday estimates today :(. Would have been interesting.

4 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

hmmm... H8 is struggling, might drop >50% from Django. I was sure it would come in lower but not by that much?!

That might well be so IMO too (Django Unchained made 9M US$ on its first weekend in Germany without previews).
Presales looked so good a week ago but during the week, it slowed down. From reports from the insidekino.de forum and a look at my theaters around 300-400k could happen. I would say 400k from evening presales but the afternoon and late night reservations don't look like 400k.

 

[IndustriousAngel]

I suppose it might be too dark for the general audience ... german audiences love comedies or at least uplifting stories

(otoh Revenant is having a nice success .... who would have thought it might beat H8?)

[IndustriousAngel]

First weekend trend is online at insidekino.de:

#1: H8 - 375k (ugh, drops a lot more from Django than I hoped)

#2: B&T3 - 250k (-35%, very good after the strong opening)

#3: Rev - 225k (-35%, also ok hold)

#4: Alvin - 175k (hard drop from the last one)

#5: SW7 - 125k (-40%, crosses 8.5mil total)

[George Parr]

Right now I'd say Episode VII finishes with 8.8-8.9 million. We don't have the weekday numbers yet, but its weekends are similar to the same weekends for Spectre, with the difference being that Spectre gets a boost in the following weeks due to the holidays, making that movie not a good comparison anymore. Fack ju Göhte 2 meanwhile managed less than 300k after coming off an 120k weekend (which wasn't the 7th like in this case, but the 8th). With TFA being at 8.55 or so after this weekend, it would need to perform significantly better than that to reach 9 million admissions.

 

Are you sure about 175k being a hard drop for Alvin compared to part 3?

The trend says it is up significantly from the last one (140k) and even ahead of the first (169k).

[IndustriousAngel]

19 minutes ago, George Parr said:

Are you sure about 175k being a hard drop for Alvin compared to part 3?

The trend says it is up significantly from the last one (140k) and even ahead of the first (169k).

oh, guess I had wrong numbers in my head for that one, thaught the last one did a lot better ...

 

I'm with you concerning SW7, I had hoped for a better drop here but I think there's still a small chance it might reach the mark, if the diehard SW fans keep up the repeat viewings.

[IndustriousAngel]

Saturday trend - H8 down to 360k, B&T3 up to 300k (wow, that's only a 20% drop - 2mil total here we come!!), Rev 225k

[Laurent K]

1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Saturday trend - H8 down to 360k, B&T3 up to 300k (wow, that's only a 20% drop - 2mil total here we come!!), Rev 225k

 

 

Is CREED KO ?

 

Here in France, it will be in the top 3 in its 3rd week after 2 weeks at the first position.

Final : 1,5 M admissions is likely in France.

Edited January 30, 2016 by Laurent K

[Aristis]

6 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Saturday trend - H8 down to 360k, B&T3 up to 300k (wow, that's only a 20% drop - 2mil total here we come!!), Rev 225k

That propably means a fourth B&T movie will come

[el sid]

9 hours ago, Laurent K said:

 

 

Is CREED KO ?

 

Here in France, it will be in the top 3 in its 3rd week after 2 weeks at the first position.

Final : 1,5 M admissions is likely in France.

Creed (and Daddy's Home and The Big Short) should have around 40k admissions this weekend (so -43%). Mmh.

Ride Along 95k (pretty ok hold), The Danish Girl 27.5k and The Peanuts still 25k.

 

[IndustriousAngel]

with every estimate, B&T3 is going up and H8 down ... now it's supposed to be like:

 

#1: H8 - 340k

#2: B&T3 - 325k (-15%, wow just wow)

#3: Rev - 240k (-30%, also ok hold)

#4: Alvin - 225k (family stuff had an extremely strong Sat it seems)

#5: SW7 - 140k (-30%, now that's a fine hold )

 

with the way the trends develop this weekend, B&T3 might win the weekend. Crazy.

Edited January 31, 2016 by IndustriousAngel

[Aristis]

If SW drops only about 31% every week 9M total is still doable...

Maybe the "Fasching" holidays (don't know an translation) can help?

Insane for B&T3 if you think of the previous parts. This is kind of doubling them.

 

H8... Maybe Revenant was to similar? They seem to have the same target group. But it's a really steep drop, especially in dollars I suspect.

[IndustriousAngel]

20 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

with the way the trends develop this weekend, B&T3 might win the weekend. Crazy.

 

 

sadly that seems to be the case ... actuals tomorrow but B&T3 stays on top with a fantastic drop of about 12%.

 

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Bibi & Tina 3	330.840	704	470	840.335	5.357.532	-12	2
2	The Hateful 8	312.673	577	542	351.316	3.609.063	-	1
3	The Revenant	240.248	693	347	1.806.590	17.114.245	-28	4
4	Alvin & Chipmunks 4	232.727	606	384	232.727	1.535.689	-	1
5	Star Wars 7	145.254	548	265	8.582.246	97.446.986	-29	7
6	Ride Along 2	108.040	382	283	287.501	2.386.191	-21	2
7	Ich bin dann mal weg	60.460	617	98	1.581.707	12.376.043	-24	6
8	The 5th Wave	57.333	475	121	314.150	2.549.755	-25	3
9	Daddy's Home	49.423	296	167	152.528	1.182.478	-37	2
10	The Big Short	41.289	280	147	258.081	2.186.415	-26	3
11	Creed	39.338	372	106	305.310	2.762.035	-43	3
12	Hilfe, ich hab meine Lehrerin geschrumpft	37.010	481	77	974.981	6.077.818	-26	7
13	The Peanuts	32.787	528	62	1.126.787	8.515.774	-36	6
14	Kardesim Benin	30.190	61	495	80.256	726.692	-22	2
15	The Danish Girl	28.136	186	151	252.045	2.038.534	-20	4
16	Brooklyn	24.039	104	231	62.719	491.654	-2	2
17	Unfriend	20.202	251	80	242.152	2.057.218	-32	4
18	Heidi	18.696	440	42	1.134.950	7.294.931	-38	8
19	Point Break	17.169	383	45	84.048	788.358	-58	2
20	Dedemin Fisi	16.671	48	347	16.671	152.351	-	1

 

Two wide openers - Alvin with a very good start, H8 with a dreadfully steep drop from Django. Even worse for H8: It was overall a good weekend as witnessed by some excellent holds (apart from Creed which gets knocked around and PointBreak which seems in complete freefall). The most unbelievable hold is the one from leader B&T3 - this release is upping future tresholds not only for the franchise but for the whole genre (domestic kid's literary adaptions). And finally a nice hold for SW7 - yeah, that's the way to 9mil! Go Baby …

 

Next weekend: With school holidays in many regions, some more family releases (CGIed "Robinson Crusoe", "Goosebumps"), some arthouse stuff, and Til Schweiger's "Tschiller: Off Duty" tries to translate his TV success to the big screen. I'd say Tschiller wins the weekend, but not by much … all those family releases are bound to cannibalise each other to some extent. H8 - difficult to predict; usually Tarantino flicks have good multipliers but the way H8 has developed over the weekend makes me doubt the potential … it would need a, say, 25% drop or better not to be called a disappointment, and I just don't see that - but let's keep the fingers crossed; strong weekdays might also help.

[el sid]

I don't know if only -25% are doable for H8 (it will be close I guess) but from a look at my usual theaters I'm surprised how terrible the presales look so far for Tschiller (despite the many trailers I had to see in the theater over the last weeks) and Goosebumps (yes, too many family films to choose).
The numbers for The Forest look ok (best newcomer?) but overall H8 and The Revenant have nothing to fear from the new releases.
The Revenant should again hold very well (what's going on with this movie - I mean I liked it myself and I thought it will be a success in Germany but with maximum 1.5M admissions and not higher. But It's a nice surprise ;) ).
H8 has not great but good reservation numbers – it could manage the only -25% I think.
The race for #1 will indeed be closer than I thought and if Tschiller:Off Duty doesn't improve much tomorrow it won't even be under the Top 3.
Hopefully tomorrow we will get Thursday numbers ;).

 

[IndustriousAngel]

presales for Tschiller look bad inded ... strange that Schweiger's blockbusters have not raised interest in his action stuff at least a bit.

[el sid]

I'm surprised too. And there were so many and long trailers in front of every movie I saw in December and January.

I read that Tschiller had a lot of previews which could have had up to 100k admissions but for the „rest“ of the weekend it's really surprising how bad it looks for this movie. First I thought that this is pretty comprehensible because it will be on TV soon but as I read it will not be shown before 2017 or 2018 in Germany.

But at least it will be not a too boring weekend and the race for #1 will become interesting :).

Edited February 3, 2016 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

Thursday evening looks not much better for "Tschiller" ... I was hoping for an opening >300k but it won't even reach 200 with those numbers.

 

btw, just saw "Wie Brüder im Wind" - highly recommended if you like nature docs; the "plot" is fairly forced and completely unnecessary (despite veteran actors like Reno and Moretti) but the eagle scenes are breathtaking and some are very intense - watch for the scene where the young eagle tries his talons on a prey two numbers too big for him - unbelievable. Same goes for the winter sequences. 7/10 as a whole but the cinematography gets at least 9/10!

[el sid]

The Thursday estimates via insidekino.de (forum):

Newbies:

Tschiller: Off Duty: 12k (200k look really out of reach)
Goosebumps: 2.5k (evening only, will improve a lot over the off school week(end))
The Forest: 5.5k (lower than I thought)
Suffragette: 3k

Holdovers:

The Hateful Eight: 43.5k
The Revenant: 21k
Star Wars: 8k
Ride Along 2: 2.5k

This Thursday the carnival week started here in Germany and Austria and some people have holidays (but by far not all) so movies could benefit. But OTOH until/including Wednesday there will be a lot of Faschingsparties and that is not helpful. Overall it will help the theaters I guess because as IndustriesAngel said schools are closed in most of the states.

I hope it doesn't bother if I post these Thursday estimates from time to time. I mean I wait for them every Thursday evening with exitement so I can also report them here ;).
And again: These Thursday numbers are only first little indicators and can only show if a movie could surprise or is a complete flop, this is no first trend as reported on Friday.

 

[IndustriousAngel]

well, at least for grown-up stuff, those Thursday estimates are usually a very good indicator so keep them coming (and going by those, Tschiller wil peter out at 100k ... myohmy ... at least H8 seems to have found some footing, to look at some silver lining)