BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

9 minutes ago, Aristis said:

And not to forget: Easter holidays start at this time.

 

I hope KFP doesn't hurt Zoo too much

I don't know how much influence Easter holidays will have on the proper weekend but we can expect some very nice weekdays for family stuff! Especially with the cool weather ...

[cannastop]

20 minutes ago, Aristis said:

And not to forget: Easter holidays start at this time.

 

I hope KFP doesn't hurt Zoo too much

Do Osterferien happen at different times depending on the Land?

Edited March 15, 2016 by cannastop

[Aristis]

As MarkG wrote, on Thursday 2% of the population are in holidays and on Friday 18%. Next Monday more than the half will have holidays. So on the weekend there will already be some impact.

[George Parr]

On 15.3.2016 at 5:33 PM, cannastop said:

Do Osterferien happen at different times depending on the Land?

 

All holidays vary, depending on the state in question. Only for christmas and a few days in late July / early August does the whole country have holidays at the same time.

 

When it comes to the holidays over the first few months of the year, things get spread out a lot. Generally, there are three places the holiday gets spread out over, early February, easter and Pentecost/Whitsun. The more holidays you have on one of these options, the less you have on others. In some cases there is only one day or no holiday at all, if all the days are used for the other options. There is another exception, as Hamburg always has a two-week holiday in March that is independent from easter. In this particular case, Hamburg's holidays end this Friday, which means it is the only state that does not have any real easter holidays this year and only gets Friday-Monday off. Well, Saxony only has one extra day as well (Thursday), so that isn't a true holiday either.

 

The big six week summer holidays rotate over the years. A state that starts the holiday early in this year, will start it a bit later next year and continue to do so until it starts very late. Afterwards it goes back to early holidays again. Bavaria is an exception here, as it never gets the early holidays. You have some states start in late June and go to early August, followed by some that start around mid July and go to the end of August and some that start in late July and go to early September.

 

The same thing happens with the autumn holidays, which usually are spread out over October, with most states getting two weeks. There is once again a weekly delay between the starts, which leads to no more than half the country having holidays at the same time at any time during that period.

Edited March 17, 2016 by George Parr

[Infernus]

So how is the buzz and awareness for Jungle Book here? What can we expect from it?

Edited March 17, 2016 by Infernus

[IndustriousAngel]

Jungle Book? I would expect a lot, say 5mil admissions or more.

 

Kung Fu Panda 3 seems to struggle ... nr1 for the weekend is everything but a safe bet atm

Edited March 17, 2016 by IndustriousAngel

[el sid]

There were some questions concerning the German and Austrian Easter Holidays. Perhaps this is a little help at least from the dates :).
 

	Osterferien 2016
Baden-Württemberg	24.03. / 29.03. - 02.04. *
Bayern	21.03. - 01.04.
Berlin	21.03. - 02.04.
Brandenburg	23.03. - 02.04.
Bremen	18.03. - 02.04.
Hamburg	07.03. - 18.03.
Hessen	29.03. - 09.04.
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern	21.03. - 30.03.
Niedersachsen	18.03. - 02.04.
Nordrhein-Westfalen	21.03. - 02.04.
Rheinland-Pfalz	18.03. - 01.04.
Saarland	29.03. - 09.04.
Sachsen	25.03. - 02.04.
Sachsen-Anhalt	24.03.
Schleswig-Holstein	24.03. - 09.04.
Thüringen	24.03. - 02.04.

Austria: 19.3.2016 - 29.3.2016 (Vorarlberg 28.3.2016).

[Infernus]

1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Jungle Book? I would expect a lot, say 5mil admissions or more.

 

Kung Fu Panda 3 seems to struggle ... nr1 for the weekend is everything but a safe bet atm

 

So around 50m euro? Maybe more with the high 3D percent? I know thats a lot but shouldn't it be closer to atleast Spectre given Jungle Book's status here? 

Edited March 17, 2016 by Infernus

[IndustriousAngel]

You mean because Jungle Book is the Top movie of the last 50 years? That was a really long time ago and I don't know if you can translate this to 2016 ... my 5mil guess means already a lot today and I did base the number on the popularity of the stuff - maybe if the movie really hits the sweet spot it can start to soar; Minions had 7mil admissions which is an awful lot for animated family stuff these days (IceAge 4 had nearly the same number, seems to be a kind of ceiling). Frozen was wildly popular but didn't hit the 5mil mark. For bigger numbers you have to go back a bit - Ice Age 3 nearly hit 9mil total, as did Ica Age 2 ten years ago. So I'd say, yes, there's potential up to 7 or 8 mil, but atm I don't feel much excitement. 5mil would be a nice success for Disney.

[Infernus]

7 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

You mean because Jungle Book is the Top movie of the last 50 years? That was a really long time ago and I don't know if you can translate this to 2016 ... my 5mil guess means already a lot today and I did base the number on the popularity of the stuff - maybe if the movie really hits the sweet spot it can start to soar; Minions had 7mil admissions which is an awful lot for animated family stuff these days (IceAge 4 had nearly the same number, seems to be a kind of ceiling). Frozen was wildly popular but didn't hit the 5mil mark. For bigger numbers you have to go back a bit - Ice Age 3 nearly hit 9mil total, as did Ica Age 2 ten years ago. So I'd say, yes, there's potential up to 7 or 8 mil, but atm I don't feel much excitement. 5mil would be a nice success for Disney.

 

But this is not animated. So the animated ceilings shouldn't apply to this. Apart from being Jungle Book, it also appears to showcase groundbreaking visuals. How will that affect the potential? 

[IndustriousAngel]

What do you mean, not animated? Every single animal in there will be animated, no?

[Infernus]

27 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

What do you mean, not animated? Every single animal in there will be animated, no?

Not really. They are all CGI. Just like the Tiger from Life of Pi. You wouldn't call that animated would you? The animals are CGI but photoreal in this one. Thats what I am referring to as groundbreaking visuals. Have you checked out the trailer?

[IndustriousAngel]

first estimate from insidekino:

#1: Zoo - 350k (-30%)

#2: KFP3 - 240k (meh)

#3: Der geilste Tag - 115k (-40%)

#4: Allegiant - 110k (ugh)

 

So, both big openers really disappointing. And "Room" with 25k fom 90 theaters also behind my expectations, thats a PTA of less than 300.

[IndustriousAngel]

32 minutes ago, Infernus said:

Not really. They are all CGI. Just like the Tiger from Life of Pi. You wouldn't call that animated would you? The animals are CGI but photoreal in this one. Thats what I am referring to as groundbreaking visuals. Have you checked out the trailer?

I've seen the trailer, stuff looks good but a talking animal is a talking animal.

[wollinux]

1 hour ago, Infernus said:

Not really. They are all CGI. Just like the Tiger from Life of Pi. You wouldn't call that animated would you? The animals are CGI but photoreal in this one. Thats what I am referring to as groundbreaking visuals. Have you checked out the trailer?

 

Animation is simply the process of bringing it to life. In classic 2D animation with or without use of computers it's done by drawing the key poses and by making so called "Inbetweeners" drawing every frame inbetween those keys.

 

CGI means only that an 3D-image is rendered by a computer but there are still different techniques.

 

Normal Computer animation is comparable to puppet animation. You create a model and scenery in your program. Than a rig is created out of your character model. You have than a kind of puppet to move around frame by frame (arms, legs, eyes etc.) in your program.

 

There is the technique called motion capture which was basically introduced to a wider audience by Andi Serkis with gollum in LOTR. You film the actors movements and facial expressions and transfer that motion to your character model. This is quite comfortable because you don't need to create every frame of the animation by yourself but it needs sometimes heavy adjustments to look good. Furthermore you can't use it for classic pixar animation type of movies because this type of movies all rely on animation techniques described by the first disney animators. Part of them is to exaggerate motion and expression which understandably can't be done by an real actor.

 

The new Jungle Book uses a combination of both techniques.

 

Photorealism (the appearance of one single frame) has more to do with the used textures, the physical models used and the overall detail you put into the image.

Surely you want to go in a more realistic direction with the movements and expressions of your characters to get that live-action-feel, too.

 

 

Edited March 18, 2016 by wollinux

[Aristis]

17 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Jungle Book? I would expect a lot, say 5mil admissions or more.

 

Kung Fu Panda 3 seems to struggle ... nr1 for the weekend is everything but a safe bet atm

5M would be enormous. For the moment - in my opinion - it seems to much. The JungleBook is widely popular but I don't think this one will benefit that much. Even Alice did not cross 3M admissions. And the other Disney Live Action (Maleficent, Cinderella) remakes did not cross 2M. I hope it will play better and there could be potential but I see rather something like 3-3.5M maybe less. But I could  be wrong which would be good in this case

[IndustriousAngel]

Saturday update ... KFP3 even worse, I've no idea why it's trailing that far behind KFP1 and 2

[Aristis]

3. Trend

Zoomania down to 325k is probably the biggest change. Not a good weekend But holidays will be better

It's a 35% drop for Zoo which isn't that bad considering Panda opens (But KFP isn't a strong competitor)

[el sid]

On 18.3.2016 at 2:24 PM, Aristis said:

5M would be enormous. For the moment - in my opinion - it seems to much. The JungleBook is widely popular but I don't think this one will benefit that much. Even Alice did not cross 3M admissions. And the other Disney Live Action (Maleficent, Cinderella) remakes did not cross 2M. I hope it will play better and there could be potential but I see rather something like 3-3.5M maybe less. But I could  be wrong which would be good in this case

That's pretty much what I think. 5M are not impossible if the film lives up to the high expectations but I wouldn't bet on it.
I also wouldn't compare it completely to Maleficent or Cinderella because I think The Jungle Book is a draw for both genders and all ages. And Alice was a bit weird IMO, but that's very subjective. Perhaps „Life of Pi“ with its 2.23M admissions is a good comparison, plus the still very well known, almost mystic brand name Jungle Book still has.
But two things worrie me: The first one is the PG rating. Yes, Life of Pi had the same rating and some hefty scenes but I'm not happy with it because I fear that it just could become too soft and seen as a „family with (little) children“-film. The trailer which I saw at hsx looks that way too. Not at all so sweet as the film from 1967 but also not gritty. Too much in-between for my taste, but of course that's only my taste.
And second, the animals get the voices of well known German actors and not the German voices of the American stars. IMO almost all of our dubbing voices are really good and charismatic and I'm not sure if all German actors are able to deliver the same quality.

So my very conservative prediction for the moment is 2-3M admissions. It's a bit early to gather how much interest exists but I was suprised that it's released so soon because I didn't realize it from the hype. But as I said earlier that can change very fast nowadays (in Germany).

[cannastop]

16 minutes ago, el sid said:

That's pretty much what I think. 5M are not impossible if the film lives up to the high expectations but I wouldn't bet on it.
I also wouldn't compare it completely to Maleficent or Cinderella because I think The Jungle Book is a draw for both genders and all ages. And Alice was a bit weird IMO, but that's very subjective. Perhaps „Life of Pi“ with its 2.23M admissions is a good comparison, plus the still very well known, almost mystic brand name Jungle Book still has.
But two things worrie me: The first one is the PG rating. Yes, Life of Pi had the same rating and some hefty scenes but I'm not happy with it because I fear that it just could become too soft and seen as a „family with (little) children“-film. The trailer which I saw at hsx looks that way too. Not at all so sweet as the film from 1967 but also not gritty. Too much in-between for my taste, but of course that's only my taste.
And second, the animals get the voices of well known German actors and not the German voices of the American stars. IMO almost all of our dubbing voices are really good and charismatic and I'm not sure if all German actors are able to deliver the same quality.

So my very conservative prediction for the moment is 2-3M admissions. It's a bit early to gather how much interest exists but I was suprised that it's released so soon because I didn't realize it from the hype. But as I said earlier that can change very fast nowadays (in Germany).

Why is it worrying for you that they don't use Synchronsprechern? Why can't a regular actor do a nice job?

 

It's hard for me to imagine, as there is no such thing as a designated dubber for English audiences.