BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

... and here's the first weekend estimate from insidekino, and it will be a very close race for #1!

 

#1: Robinson Crusoe - 275k (don't know if there's previews included)

#2/3: B&T3 and H8 with 240k each (that would be the exact 25% drop for H8 I was hoping for)

#4: Alvin4 - 210k (crazy hold)

#5: Revenant - 160k (-35%, ok)

#6: Goosebumps - 140k

 

So, it's the weekend of the family movies. Robinson shockingly strong, B&T3 still on a 2mil total trajectory, Alvin  and even Goosebumps managed a respectable opening against that much competition.

 

 

[George Parr]

TFA meanwhile looking for around 100k. If that holds, it would once again be slightly above LOTR 2 and 3. That would be the third weekend in a row above 3, and second weekend in a row above 2. Though the differences are marginal, and the weekdays are decidely in favour of the LOTR movies.

 

No idea how the last weekdays were, but I guess the movie should be somewhere between 8.71 and 8.725 million admissions after the weekend. There might actually be just enough steam left to get past 9 million in the end.

[efialtes76]

Trend 2:

 

1.TH8-240k

2.Robinson Crusoe-240k

3.Bibi&Tina 3-225k

4.Alvin 4-200k

5.The Revenant-175k

6.Goosebumps-125k

 

SW7-90k

[efialtes76]

Final Trend:

 

1.TH8-225k

2.B&T3-200k

3.Robinson Crusoe-175k

4.The Revenant-175k

5.Alvin 4-150k

6.Goosebumos-125k

 

SW7-90k

 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2016 by efialtes76

[George Parr]

Everything down from the earlier trends, Robinson Crusoe quite significantly so, I wonder if that is due to the uncertainty of the impact carnival would have or if it is just coincidence.

[IndustriousAngel]

It seems family movies had an absoluteley massive Thursday ... no idea why; often it's weather situations when a weekend turns this lopsided.

[IndustriousAngel]

Actuals tomorrow, but insidekino reports:

 

#1: H8 - 220k admissions (-29%)

#2: B&T3 - 180k (-46%, crosses 1mil)

#3: Rev - 175k (-27%, crosses 2mil)

 

It seems that the massive overload of family stuff did indeed lead to some cannibalisation; every single family movie is dropping hard from first estimates.

[IndustriousAngel]

btw, in Austria, H8 is doing better than in Germany, it's again #1 with a 37% drop and has already crossed 100k admissions total (Germany has 10x the inhabitants of Austria)

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	The Hateful 8	224.026	605	387	701.824	7.063.976	-28	2
2	Bibi & Tina 3	185.014	760	243	1.109.880	7.052.918	-44	3
3	The Revenant	176.621	748	236	2.065.968	19.525.800	-26	5
4	Alvin & Chipmunks 4	134.224	620	216	437.295	2.828.307	-42	2
5	Robinson Crusoe	129.519	510	254	157.841	1.216.623	-	1
6	Tschiller: Off Duty	109.137	503	217	117.332	1.089.923	-	1
7	Star Wars 7	90.796	445	204	8.718.855	99.015.236	-37	8
8	Goosebumps	87.260	547	160	119.175	1.020.908	-	1
9	Ride Along 2	63.885	362	176	375.107	3.102.044	-41	3
10	The Forest	51.118	117	437	59.806	524.498	-	1
11	Ich bin dann mal weg	47.397	531	89	1.659.946	12.953.037	-22	7
12	Suffragette	39.104	127	308	44.232	351.318	-	1
13	The Big Short	29.978	192	156	304.272	2.590.801	-27	4
14	Daddy's Home	27.385	299	92	193.545	1.489.494	-45	3
15	The 5th Wave	26.279	338	78	357.044	2.888.191	-54	4
16	Hilfe, ich hab meine Lehrerin geschrumpft	21.010	395	53	1.010.268	6.289.687	-43	8
17	The Danish Girl	19.575	167	117	286.845	2.305.782	-30	5
18	Brooklyn	18.366	116	158	93.239	727.446	-24	3
19	Kardesim Benin	16.941	63	269	105.266	937.763	-44	3
20	Creed	14.673	279	53	330.882	2.979.423	-63	4

 

Well, all those family releases were bound to hurt each other so the drops are hard as expected - the family openers Robinson and Goosebumps did not bad under these circumstances. Schweiger's Tschiller otoh is a desaster (well, it's a TV series anyway) - and The Forest managed the biggest PTA! Should have a good 2nd weekend.

H8 and Revenant had very soft drops, although H8's -28% are a bit harder than what I was hoping for. Revenant crossed 2mil total - who would have expected that from such an extreme film? B&T3 has crossed 1,1mil total and should stay in theaters a few more months, I see it doing at least 1,8mil total. A bit farther down the charts, "Hilfe, ich habe …" has also broken the million barrier - nice surprise once more from a domestic kids film.

The Force Awakens had a drop somewhere between the grown-up and the family stuff, as was to be expected - it's still trajectoring towards 9mil total, very nice!

 

Next weekend: After the rush of family stuff last weekend, there's still one more, the only wide release Die Wilden Kerle 6 - it's been a while since the last installment (7 or 8 years) which is never good for a kid franchise, but DWK5 had about 1,7mil admissions so even with a sizeable drop an opening in the 300k range and a #1 opening should be possible. Deadpool is a wildcard; it has not that many theaters but good buzz; problem is: It's going against Dirty Grandpa which is aiming at much the same demo I guess. Well, and there's Sisters, too - three raunchy releases at the start, well, I suppose the distributors know what they're doing.

[Aristis]

I don't know if it was already written, but I don't think so: SW is third alltime in euro with €99.015.236M in Germany.

[Aristis]

This box shouldn't be there

[Quigley]

Hooray, SW7 is reaching the 100M€ mark in Germany!!

[Giesi]

Where can I find the biggest movies in the DDR? I know there is a list available on insidekino but it only features the biggest inland hits.

[IndustriousAngel]

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_erfolgreicher_Filme#Erfolgreichste_DDR-Filme_in_der_DDR_nach_Zuschauerzahlen

[IndustriousAngel]

Update: Deadpool is going wide, too - more than 500 theaters, so it may in fact have a shot a nr.1. Reviews are pretty good and the buzz is there, and maybe the comedy angle (always good in Germany) wil help

[Aristis]

And the official FFA yearly numbers are out:

 

139,2M admissions (Nearly 140M, why couldn't it reach that mark )
€1.167,1M (up from the record of €1033M in 2012 and 19,1% up from 2014), should be around $1,3B for the year (would have been nearly $1,6B a few years ago )

37,1M admissions (27,5 %) for German movies.

And for the first time in many years more cinemas than the year before (893 with 4692 halls)

Average ticket price: €8,39 (about $9,20) , 4% up from the last year (in € only, in Dollar in fact it could be down).

3D share 21,9% (2014: 22,3%)

 

Well, a very good year

Edited February 10, 2016 by Aristis

[Aristis]

I read two numbers now: 893 (which I wrote above) and 1648. Is it possible that the first number is the number of cities which have a cinema and the 1648 the total number of cinemas? 893 would be extremely few I think now.

I saw now that the hobbit for example was shown in 930 cinemas so there are probably 1648 cinemas...

[IndustriousAngel]

yep, there are more:

http://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/3077/umfrage/anzahl-der-kinos-in-deutschland-seit-dem-jahr-2002/

 

btw, can't say much yet about "Die wilden Kerle", but among the three raunchy openers, Deadpool is killing or at least maiming Sisters and Granpa.

[Poseidon]

Deadpool is going to break out, will easily get to #1 this weekend.

Can't see it going under 400k, will probably land somewhere between 400-500k. Maybe even more, but with movies like Deadpool, you have to be cautious, if they work everywhere, not only in big cities.

 

Looking much better than 300P2 2 years ago and will have Valentinesday on Sunday to boost the gross and also better weather.

[el sid]

The Thursday estimates via insidekino.de (forum):

New Releases:

Deadpool: 129k (!)
Dirty Grandpa: 29.5k (not bad at all)

Sisters: 6k

Holdovers:

Tschiller: Off Duty: 10k (last Thursday: 12k)
The Forest: 3.5k

The Hateful Eight: 32.5 (it was overestimated a lot last Thursday with 43k and actually it had 30k, so I don't completely trust these numbers but it's a good hold so or so)
The Revenant: 17.5 (l.T.: 21k, again a very good hold)
Star Wars: 5k (l.T: 8k)

 

So very good for Deadpool! My conservative guess was more around 350-400k admissions because it has many showings everywhere as well as in my theaters and they are well booked but not completely sold out. But if these estimates hold 500k are not out of reach.
Dirty Grandpa is a success given the poor reviews.
Tschiller at least has a good hold and should have almost the same admissions as last weekend.
 

Edited February 11, 2016 by el sid