BO Germany/Austria: Inside Out 2 #1 with best 2024 OW

[IndustriousAngel]

Update: With Fri numbers it's looking even better:

#1: WbdH - 450k (-5%)

#2: Strange -200k (-30%)

#3: Reacher - 190k

#4: Trolls - 100k (-35%)

#5: Bridget - 90k (-35%)

#6/7: TGotT / Dory - 79k each (TGotT -25%, Dory -45%)

#8: Inferno - 65k (-45%)

#9: Pet.u.Fin. - 60k (-15%)

 

That's a fine weekend overall, with hard drops for family stuff (expected after last weekend where some even had increases). Again, Dory is dropping hardest among family stuff, I don't believe in 4mil total anymore

[IndustriousAngel]

Final estimates are even higher for WbdH and Trolls; JackReacher down to 180k

[Aristis]

3rd Trend

 

Hartmanns 475k (+1%/-6%) So 1,1M to 1,15M admissions after the second weekend! We will see how far it goes...

Strange 200k (-31%) That's again a good hold - and it has about 1,15M admissions, too.

JR 180k

Trolls 120k (-19%) That seems absolutely great for a weekend were most of the Holidays have ended! WOM must be excellent like it seems to be in the US!

Bridget Jones's 80k (-41%)

Dory 70k (-48%) Only Violetta fell harder - WOM must be really bad...

Inferno 70k (-41%)

Girl on a Train 65k (-32%)

Petterson & Findus 60k (-18%/-25%)

Violetta 55k (-51%)

Café Society 37,5k

Before I wake 32,5k

 

Next weekend will be interesting when Fantastic Beasts arrives. I don't know if it shares its target group with Hartmanns. But 3M arfe really a possibility for the refugee-friendly family.

Edited November 13, 2016 by Aristis

[IndustriousAngel]

11 hours ago, Aristis said:

3rd Trend

 

Hartmanns 475k (+1%/-6%) So 1,1M to 1,15M admissions after the second weekend! We will see how far it goes...

 

 

Next weekend will be interesting when Fantastic Beasts arrives. I don't know if it shares its target group with Hartmanns. But 3M arfe really a possibility for the refugee-friendly family.

 

Fantastic Beasts is a wild card ... I'd say a drop of about 50% total from the HP movies seems a sensible estimate, and as to opening weekend - HP was always rather frontloaded with all those kids; those diehard fans are a few years older now, I don't think we'll see anything like those rushes. FB gets the biggest screens of course, but at my theater, the evening shows for Wed are only 10% booked at the moment and the afternoon shows virtually empty.

 

The Hartmanns are loose now, with 2nd weekend flat 3mil total are locked and there's really no telling how far it can do, a very welcome surprise in a lackluster year.

 

btw, in Austria Jack Reacher was #1 (did a bit better than in Germany but nothing stellar either); the Hartmanns on #2 dropped about 30%; Strange #3 more than 40%.

[efialtes76]

Hartmanns 485/1135
Strange 195/1145
Jack Reacher 165/180
Trolls 122,5/785
Bridget 77,5/1040
Dory 72,5/3640
Inferno 70/1410
Girl 65/390

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Willkommen bei den Hartmanns	486.778	656	742	1.134.769	9.393.136	+4	2
2	Doctor Strange	193.716	588	329	1.140.743	12.588.905	-33	3
3	Jack Reacher 2	166.510	508	328	181.037	1.602.115	-	1
4	Trolls	122.548	672	182	782.889	5.775.741	-18	4
5	Bridget Jones's Baby	78.159	610	128	1.039.397	8.897.882	-43	4
6	Finding Dory	71.752	687	104	3.636.447	30.512.381	-46	7
7	Inferno	70.201	516	136	1.408.548	12.370.820	-41	5
8	The Girl on the Train	64.330	443	145	388.661	3.348.822	-33	3
9	Pettersson & Findus - Weihnachten	61.497	465	132	150.877	917.538	-15	2
10	Tini - Violettas Zukunft	55.823	412	135	181.660	1.241.587	-51	2
11	Café Society	36.050	135	267	40.452	323.961	-	1
12	Before I Wake	30.124	191	158	32.105	280.731	-	1
13	Burg Schreckenstein	29.384	500	59	269.406	1.698.235	-39	4
14	Storks	28.309	435	65	166.727	1.196.490	-35	3
15	Miss Peregrine's Home For Peculiar Children	24.288	285	85	825.873	8.158.183	-33	6
16	The Accountant	16.756	225	74	280.890	2.457.446	-56	4
17	Bad Moms	16.125	211	76	1.265.158	10.360.592	-49	8
18	Ouija: Origin of Evil	12.704	249	51	198.651	1.718.848	-59	4
19	Die Mitte der Welt	10.348	81	128	17.029	123.170	-	1
20	Tschick	8.878	140	63	635.114	4.568.772	-30	9

 

Wow at Willkommen bei den Hartmanns, the refugee comedy opened better than expected last weekend and now it had and increase - a very welcome surprise! 3mil total should be safe with this performance. Doctor Strange had an ok drop, definitely another success for Marvel. Jack Reacher stayed a bit below my expectations but did basically what was expected. Trolls is showing very nice holds!

 

Next weekend: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them is the big story - nobody expects anything like the Harry Potter craze but #1 for the weekend is a must; in fact anything below 700k admissions for the weekend would seem rather disappointing. Yet presales are strangely muted … let's keep those fingers crossed!

[Aristis]

Fantastic Beasts starts in 767 cinemas. While that's pretty much it's far behind the 877 cinemas the first Hobbit had.

 

I would say less than 600k for the weekend would be a disaster. More than 800k would be great. And it will probably land in the middle of that. But hopefully it'll be more - 1M+ would be wonderful

 

 

And tomorow when I'm back again this thread is probably over 300k views!

Edited November 16, 2016 by Aristis

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Aristis said:

Fantastic Beasts starts in 767 cinemas. While that's pretty much it's far behind the 877 cinemas the first Hobbit had.

 

I would say less than 600k for the weekend would be a disaster. More than 800k would be great. And it will probably land in the middle of that. But hopefully it'll be more - 1M+ would be wonderful

 

 

And tomorow when I'm back again this thread is probably over 300k views!

 

What were the opens for the last 3 or so HP films?   It won't come anywhere near the last but how's it tracking compared to earlier installments?

[George Parr]

Here's the full list for opening weekends:

 

HP1: 2.59 million

HP2: 2.49

HP 4: 2.4

HP3: 1.987

HP6: 1.844

HP7.1: 1.769

HP5: 1.682

HP7.2: 1.608

 

The current presales look rather weak to me, but I don't have access to any comparable numbers from earlier Harry Potter movies. The numbers listed for individual theaters don't really approach sellouts as far as I can see. Then again, maybe it will be differently for the weekend itself.

[IndustriousAngel]

At my theater, afternoon shows are still empty as yesterday - ok, it's a normal work and school day so no big surprise. But it's the evening that makes me worry, we're far far from sellout status, only 1/3 to 1/2 seats sold.

[Giesi]

3 hours ago, George Parr said:

Here's the full list for opening weekends:

 

HP1: 2.59 million

HP2: 2.49

HP 4: 2.4

HP3: 1.987

HP6: 1.844

HP7.1: 1.769

HP5: 1.682

HP7.2: 1.608

Wow, I didn't expect that at all. HP8 was my greatest cinema experience, tied with TFA midnight premiere. The hype felt so real in my immediate local area, crazy to think about that it had the lowest opening and a total of just 6mil admissions

[miketheavenger]

1 hour ago, Giesi said:

Wow, I didn't expect that at all. HP8 was my greatest cinema experience, tied with TFA midnight premiere. The hype felt so real in my immediate local area, crazy to think about that it had the lowest opening and a total of just 6mil admissions

To be fair, by 2011 admissions in general had become far lower than the "boom" in the early/mid-2000s.

[Aristis]

3 hours ago, Giesi said:

Wow, I didn't expect that at all. HP8 was my greatest cinema experience, tied with TFA midnight premiere. The hype felt so real in my immediate local area, crazy to think about that it had the lowest opening and a total of just 6mil admissions

HP1	2.590.464	2.590.464
HP2	2.489.952	2.489.952
HP3	1.987.285	1.987.285
HP4	2.400.158	2.685.158*
HP5	1.682.806	2.086.806*
HP6	1.844.184	2.218.552*
HP7-1	1.768.932	2.053.245*
HP7-2	1.607.782	2.015.450*

 

With pre-start it looks a bit better? 2M 5-day is a huge OW! There's no Hobbit movie which did that (makes me sad to think about how much potential The Hobbit had and how it turned out to be (in terms of BoxOffice) - it seems FB could follow that path (and that much worse )

[el sid]

The Thursday estimates via insidekino.de (forum):

New Releases:

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: 75k (starts in 767 theaters, good to very good reviews, promising WOM)
Radio Heimat: 0.5k (125, mediocre reviews)
Dirty Cops: ?k (90, ok reviews)
Egon Schiele: ?k (88, good reviews)
Paterson: ?k (87, very good reviews)

Holdovers:

Willkommen bei den Hartmanns: 40k (45k) – would be a great hold given the competition if this number holds
Jack Reacher 2: 10.5k (25k) – maybe again underestimated
Doctor Strange: 10.5k (25k) - the same
Bridget Jones's Baby: 10.5k (12k)
Girl on the Train: 5k (7.5k)
Inferno: 4.5k (8k)

 

So pretty good holds and not a bad start of FB, but I'm not sure which multiplier it will have over the weekend. Maybe IndustriousAngel or somebody else has more routine in these things and can help.

Edited November 17, 2016 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

Really difficult to say ... the Potter movies were always rather frontloaded but I guess this one should be considered more as an original story so 700k should be possible - a good opening and maybe a blockbuster (with yesterday's and today's performance I would be happy with those 3mil truth be told, sad as that is) - but that's more than just some steps down from the HP movies. Let's hope the weekend afternoon shows sell better than today's, that PTA has to go up a lot to reach 700k. Realistically, this smeels more like a 500k opening ...

 

But the real story is WbdH, that's another incredible hold - a blockbuster out of left field, really no telling how far it can go - as I mentioned, 3mil total are toast but with another no-drop 4mil seem feasible. Really, as long as it doesn't start to drop you can't even set a sensible limit

[IndustriousAngel]

First weekend trends from insidekino.de:

#1: FB - 750k (including Wed) - better than feared at least!

#2: WbdH - 450k (-10% or better)

#3: Strange - 110k (-45%)

#4: Reacher - 100k (-40%)

#5: Trolls - 75k (-40%)

[Fullbuster]

1 minute ago, IndustriousAngel said:

First weekend trends from insidekino.de:

#1: FB - 750k (including Wed) - better than feared at least!

#2: WbdH - 450k (-10% or better)

#3: Strange - 110k (-45%)

#4: Reacher - 100k (-40%)

#5: Trolls - 75k (-40%)

 

Do you have the numbers for HP movies? That would be interesting to compare!

[Olive]

Just now, Fullbuster said:

 

Do you have the numbers for HP movies? That would be interesting to compare!

 

18 hours ago, Aristis said:

HP1	2.590.464	2.590.464
HP2	2.489.952	2.489.952
HP3	1.987.285	1.987.285
HP4	2.400.158	2.685.158*
HP5	1.682.806	2.086.806*
HP6	1.844.184	2.218.552*
HP7-1	1.768.932	2.053.245*
HP7-2	1.607.782	2.015.450*

 

With pre-start it looks a bit better? 2M 5-day is a huge OW! There's no Hobbit movie which did that (makes me sad to think about how much potential The Hobbit had and how it turned out to be (in terms of BoxOffice) - it seems FB could follow that path (and that much worse )

 

[Fullbuster]

Oh poor Aristis, I missed his post

 

Too weird : HP8 had the lowest opening of all

Edited November 18, 2016 by Fullbuster

[IndustriousAngel]

Why is this weird? It's called franchise fatigue.