Han and Eric's (Not-So) Controversial Predictions of 2023

[CJohn]

On 12/28/2022 at 9:57 AM, CJohn said:

When Creed does like 70M DOM total people are gonna be really sad.

Very happy to eat this crow. The movie deserves all the money.

[Reddroast]

Looking back on the first 2 months of the year vs predictions... The smaller films are doing much better then expected so far. Looks less like an issue of marvel fatigue and more how studios make blockbuster films

[Eric the Fall Guy]

On 12/31/2022 at 6:19 AM, CJohn said:

The Little Mermaid is gonna tank. Under 200M total. You read it here first. 

I'm assuming you were talking about overseas here? 🤔

[YM!]

On 12/28/2022 at 2:46 PM, Cmasterclay said:

Damn, my big predictions of the year were gonna be Creed III and John Wick having yet another increase and Mario  being the biggest of the year domestically, and you guys went 2.5/3 on those already. I'll have to think of something else crazy. Marvels and Ant-Man both under 250? Is that bold?

Almost all of your predictions came true.

[CJohn]

9 minutes ago, Prince Eric said:

I'm assuming you were talking about overseas here? 🤔

Of course.

 

Luckily I actually jumped ship after the pre-sales numbers came out into the 300M+ total train.

[Eric the Fall Guy]

On 1/1/2023 at 10:24 AM, Eric Bainbridge said:

July 21

Barbie: Alright. We’re finally here. Mama Gerwig vs. Papa Nolan. And I hate to say it, but Mommy’s probably winning here. Every BTS photo and video has gone crazy viral, and the teaser was a big hit. There’s already tons of Minions-style memes about going to see the film ironically and meme power is what gets people in the seats these days. And I have faith Greta delivered a gangbuster of a crowdpleaser, so this should be a very strong film for the end of summer, boy or girl. I was gunning for 300M, but as time passes, that’s probably super unlikely. But still, one of the biggest for the year and a much-needed win for Margot Robbie. 65/225 (3.46x)

 

Oppenheimer: The big problem is that this isn’t a nostalgic toy commercial and these kinds of adult dramas simply don’t have any appeal to today's adult audiences who would happily stream the movie at home. But there’s still the appeal of the IMAX sequences and they are at least pushing this as a cinematic event that is best viewed on the big screen. So it will still obviously do more than the average prestige drama title post-COVID. I think Nope numbers sound about right, which I guess still shows this is a strong investment for Universal when this delivers big business on PVOD and Peacock. 37/130 (3.51x)

[Grebacio]

On 1/1/2023 at 12:24 PM, Eric Bainbridge said:

July 21

Barbie: Alright. We’re finally here. Mama Gerwig vs. Papa Nolan. And I hate to say it, but Mommy’s probably winning here. Every BTS photo and video has gone crazy viral, and the teaser was a big hit. There’s already tons of Minions-style memes about going to see the film ironically and meme power is what gets people in the seats these days. And I have faith Greta delivered a gangbuster of a crowdpleaser, so this should be a very strong film for the end of summer, boy or girl. I was gunning for 300M, but as time passes, that’s probably super unlikely. But still, one of the biggest for the year and a much-needed win for Margot Robbie. 65/225 (3.46x)

 

 

Indeed, more like 400M 

[Bob Train]

On 12/29/2022 at 9:13 AM, Eric the Nun said:

May 19

Fast X: The new cast members are cool, but like...there’s no new hook for this franchise anymore. They already did the space thing in the last movie (badly I might add), the last couple movies have been critical duds, the franchise has been on the decline for a while anyways (doubt F9 would have done that much better with less COVID in the world), the new cast members probably won’t do much. What else is there to get people excited? And with all the Justin Lin drama, I doubt the film’s going to be all that good anyways. Sorry Vin, but your micromanaging has killed your golden goose. Good thing Avatar will save your ass. 65/150 (2.31x)

wow, this was spot-on.

[JWR]

On 12/31/2022 at 8:51 AM, Eric the Nun said:

June 16

Elemental: Daddy Iger’s return doesn’t mean anything. We now live in a world where Disney’s animated movies aren’t theater destinations anymore for families and we have to deal with that. Everybody knows it’ll be free in a few weeks, so why rush out and pay for it? Kids don’t care about theaters anymore, and frankly, this movie has the look and feel of a Pixar parody rather than an actual Pixar movie. Bombs away, and another stepping stone for Disney’s animated movies to become permanently trapped on Disney+ forever. I know people don’t like hearing this stuff, but the truth hurts sometimes. 25/90 (3.6x)

 

The Flash: Ezra’s gone cuckoo, which has already alienated the fanbase, and apparently this won’t even matter for the new Gunn/Safran era? I think? Again, the big problem is that these movies don’t lead to anything, so the fanbase doesn’t care. And if the core audience doesn’t care, why should the GA, who are definitely suffering from superhero fatigue? This still has more going for it than Shazam and will probably do more than Transformers, but it’s just not going to be that big at all. 70/185 (2.64x)

 

These did not age well...