Han and Eric's (Not-So) Controversial Predictions of 2023

[Verrows]

I dunno guys, I realize Captain Marvel benefited tremendously from Endgame hype but I refuse to believe that pure Endgame hype was worth 50% of its domestic gross. No way.

 

The first one drew $424M domestic. Some folks are predicting low $200M area. I'm going to split the difference and go $300M-$320M. I also believe that between trailers and a comic con primer, Marvel will give people good reasons to see this.

 

 

Edited January 2, 2023 by Verrows

[WorkingonaName]

On 1/1/2023 at 12:50 PM, CJohn said:

Transformers won't even do 100M DOM total. Nobody wants that. People want TF6 with Shia and Megan.

 

Disney animations are dead in the water. Expect bomb after bomb. Families and adults are not coming back. All that is left is teens and young adults.

 

Based as fuck.

[filmlover]

Some of these The Marvels drops, especially when we haven't even seen any footage from the movie yet (the first movie opened as huge as it did thanks to a great marketing campaign), seem really over the top to me.

[Factcheck]

@Eric in Boots I'm unable to understand your prediction for The Marvels and Ant-Man & the Wasp 2. In your own thequorum tracking, The Marvels is tracking much higher than Ant-Man & the Wasp 2 without any trailer and six months away from the release. Though I definitely think that The Marvels can go under $200 million because of the ignorance of MCU fans, if in your own tracking The Marvels is trending higher, then on what basis are you predicting that Ant-Man 3 will gross more? Is this because you think Ant-Man 3 has the support of more active online fans?

Edited January 2, 2023 by Factcheck

[poweranimals]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Some of these The Marvels drops, especially when we haven't even seen any footage from the movie yet

I have. 🙂

[ZeeSoh]

19 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

 

The Marvels: The tea is that Nia DaCosta has something wild and crazy coming with this movie, but these days, I expect little from Marvel when they give a director “free rein”. If anything, it just makes the movie more unappealing to people.  

That is interesting seeing that people in the past have complained about sameness and directors not having more creative control lol.  Phase 4 had given directors more free reign (Chloe Zhao, Waititi, Raimi and Coogler) and yet these phase 4 movies have been the weakest (in terms of reception, except Black Panther) whereas movie like Shang Chi and NWH which have followed the "formula" have been successful. Seems like Feige and Marvel was doing it right when they had tight controls over the movies and maybe they should go back to it.

[Cap]

6 hours ago, filmlover said:

Some of these The Marvels drops, especially when we haven't even seen any footage from the movie yet (the first movie opened as huge as it did thanks to a great marketing campaign), seem really over the top to me.

It’s cause girls have cooties. 🙃

[Eric Loves Rey]

August 4

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem: This movie feels like it was made just for me. A property I love reimagined by Seth Rogen with the director working on stuff like Gravity Falls and Mitchells vs. Machines? It’s the coolest thing ever! Still, I’m not really sure if TMNT is that hot a property at the moment. Out of the Shadows crashed and burned, the 2012 series was banished to early Sunday mornings at the end of its run, the new Rise of the TMNT series flopped with only two seasons. I feel like kids today don’t really care and the 80s nostalgia novelty won't boost it as strong as the 2014 movie did. Super Pets numbers sound about right. 25/90 (3.6x)

 

The Meg 2: The Trench: Like Shazam, The Meg feels like one of those big hits that nobody talks about anymore. But at least Shazam is attached to a big franchise with a dedicated fandom. There’s not much mileage you can really do with this concept after the first movie, and I doubt there’s any real exciting money shots in the trailer, so expect a big fall from this one. Probably about half of the last film. 27/70 (2.59x)

[Eric Loves Rey]

August 11

Challengers: These mid-size films don’t make money anymore and I doubt Luca made a crowdpleaser. I would say Logan Lucky numbers, but even that’s probably too generous in this day and age. 6/18 (3x)

 

Gran Turismo: Who the hell cares about Gran Turismo in 2023? Sorry Neill, but you’ll always be a one-hit wonder. 12/34 (2.83x)

 

Haunted Mansion: Still not entirely sure that an August date works for an obvious Halloween movie (yes I know it's here because it’ll be on Disney+ in time for Halloween), but the cast is fun sans the problematic figures, and the original ride has a very dedicated fanbase. It won’t rock the boat, but it will still find moderate numbers for Disney at around Jungle Cruise’s numbers. And this is likely way cheaper than Jungle Cruise, so it’ll be a solid success at the box office and become the big Halloween option on Disney+. A win-win. 35/115 (3.29x)

 

Last Voyage of the Demeter: Andre Ovredal’s a decent horror director and there’s probably some fun horror elements that will be in the trailer that will make this an...okay success. Nothing grand, but a good way to end the summer horror season like Ovredal's Scary Stories did back in 2019. 25/60 (2.4x)

[CJohn]

I think Gran Turismo will bomb hard but asking who cares? The new game released last year for PS5 sold gangbusters. The franchise is still massive.

 

Also, in other news, The Meg 2 will do 130M+ DOM total and 400M+ globally, you read it here first.

[Eric Loves Rey]

August 18

Blue Beetle: I’ve seen so many people around here throwing 200M+ predictions and I am just completely lost and confused. Blue Beetle’s a B-list character at best, and unlike Black Adam, isn’t played by the world’s biggest movie star. And while Marvel can pull off B-listers, even Z-listers making big bucks, DC still doesn’t have the cultural cache to pull this off. A Harley Quinn movie bombed, but we're expecting this to make big bucks, no sweat? And again, this has the same problem as Shazam and The Flash where the universe is getting rebooted, so who cares anymore? But at least those have a previous movie or big superheroes behind them. Just throwing it out there that when this does moderate numbers that I told you so. 28/85 (3.04x)

 

Untitled Please Don’t Destroy Project: I have no clue who these people are, and I live with boomer parents who watch SNL unironically. And if I don’t know them, I don’t think Joe Schmoe from Idaho will either. 3/8 (2.67x)

[Eric Loves Rey]

August 25

They Listen: This sounds like some corny horror movie, so...The Invitation numbers? Yeah, let’s go with that. 6/22 (3.67x)

[filmlover]

I keep forgetting that a sequel to The Meg is actually on the way.

[XXR vs XXR]

Oof to these The Marvels predictions. The sequel to a massively over-performing A+ zeitgeist film like Black Panther is only dropping 35% but the sequel to a moderately Endgame pumped decently received A film that's now getting a summer release is gonna drop 50-55%? Eternals/Shang Chi releasing during Omicron level OW??
 

Ehhhhhhhhhhh.....

 

Give me 115-135 OW / 280-330 Final. 

 

[YM!]

22 minutes ago, Eric in Boots said:

Blue Beetle: I’ve seen so many people around here throwing 200M+ predictions and I am just completely lost and confused. Blue Beetle’s a B-list character at best, and unlike Black Adam, isn’t played by the world’s biggest movie star.

Blue Beetle is also the first Hispanic superhero lead with a majority Hispanic cast. It could be big with the right marketing and with the power set being a teen with an Iron Man esque alien suit could be fun. When even Morbius did 70M, I don't see why it would go sub 100M. BOP was R-rated and arguably knee caped by the pandemic and TSS had a bad first movie to overcome, a still strong pandemic and day and date taking away at least half it's potential gross imho.

[SchumacherFTW]

28 minutes ago, Eric in Boots said:

August 11

Challengers: These mid-size films don’t make money anymore and I doubt Luca made a crowdpleaser. I would say Logan Lucky numbers, but even that’s probably too generous in this day and age. 6/18 (3x)

 

Gran Turismo: Who the hell cares about Gran Turismo in 2023? Sorry Neill, but you’ll always be a one-hit wonder. 12/34 (2.83x)

 

Haunted Mansion: Still not entirely sure that an August date works for an obvious Halloween movie (yes I know it's here because it’ll be on Disney+ in time for Halloween), but the cast is fun sans the problematic figures, and the original ride has a very dedicated fanbase. It won’t rock the boat, but it will still find moderate numbers for Disney at around Jungle Cruise’s numbers. And this is likely way cheaper than Jungle Cruise, so it’ll be a solid success at the box office and become the big Halloween option on Disney+. A win-win. 35/115 (3.29x)

 

Last Voyage of the Demeter: Andre Ovredal’s a decent horror director and there’s probably some fun horror elements that will be in the trailer that will make this an...okay success. Nothing grand, but a good way to end the summer horror season like Ovredal's Scary Stories did back in 2019. 25/60 (2.4x)

Your Gran Turismo slander will not stand, we're a popular franchise! Though movie wise who knows, Jann Mardenborough's story is compelling though. 

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

Oof to these The Marvels predictions. The sequel to a massively over-performing A+ zeitgeist film like Black Panther is only dropping 35% but the sequel to a moderately Endgame pumped decently received A film that's now getting a summer release is gonna drop 50-55%? Eternals/Shang Chi releasing during Omicron level OW??
 

Ehhhhhhhhhhh.....

 

Give me 115-135 OW / 280-330 Final. 

 

The only cause for concern is not being in the top 10 list for Fandango as I can't recall an example where a film did 300m+ but miss the list. But even then it's Quorom statistics is really great, I can see Dead Reckoning over it but not Barbie or Oppenheimer, especially when it's tracking as one of the strongest of the summer period.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, YM! said:

The only cause for concern is not being in the top 10 list for Fandango as I can't recall an example where a film did 300m+ but miss the list. But even then it's Quorom statistics is really great, I can see Dead Reckoning over it but not Barbie or Oppenheimer, especially when it's tracking as one of the strongest of the summer period.

To be fair, most of the movies on the Fandango Top 10 have already released marketing materials so a movie that's not yet being promoted in any form was unlikely to make the cut (of course The Little Mermaid also didn't make the top 10 despite the trailer being big but Disney hasn't released any additional marketing materials since so it was likely pushed aside for movies that recently began their marketing campaigns).

[Factcheck]

22 minutes ago, YM! said:

The only cause for concern is not being in the top 10 list for Fandango as I can't recall an example where a film did 300m+ but miss the list.

Frozen 2

[Factcheck]

37 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

Oof to these The Marvels predictions. The sequel to a massively over-performing A+ zeitgeist film like Black Panther is only dropping 35% but the sequel to a moderately Endgame pumped decently received A film that's now getting a summer release is gonna drop 50-55%? Eternals/Shang Chi releasing during Omicron level OW??
 

Ehhhhhhhhhhh.....

 

Give me 115-135 OW / 280-330 Final. 

 

The-numbers predicted $330M, but their prediction, I think, was based on previous performance and current market conditions, so it can't be taken seriously.