Han and Eric's (Not-So) Controversial Predictions of 2023

[YM!]

22 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

Frozen 2

True but that was a family film but Frozen did gain quite a bit more fanbase.

[robertman2]

On 12/27/2022 at 2:42 PM, RobrtmanAStarWarsReference said:

It does say controversial in the title lol

 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 hour ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

Oof to these The Marvels predictions. The sequel to a massively over-performing A+ zeitgeist film like Black Panther is only dropping 35% but the sequel to a moderately Endgame pumped decently received A film that's now getting a summer release is gonna drop 50-55%? Eternals/Shang Chi releasing during Omicron level OW??
 

Ehhhhhhhhhhh.....

 

Give me 115-135 OW / 280-330 Final. 

Franchise fatigue is arguably even deadlier than COVID. Again, go take another look at The Last Knight's receipts to see why people are being so skeptical.

[XXR vs XXR]

10 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Franchise fatigue is arguably even deadlier than COVID. Again, go take another look at The Last Knight's receipts to see why people are being so skeptical.

"Franchise fatigue" is a bit of a misnomer in regards to the MCU. Four of the 9 highest grossing domestic films of 2022 were MCU films (over $1.4B combined). Even underperforming relative to expectations, Thor L&T increased over Ragnarok and MoM went up 77% over DS1. Every D+ series to date has had at least 1 week in the Nielsen top 10 and most series had several. She-Hulk (for all its Twitter hate) was averaging as many streaming viewers as HOTD and ROP. 

I guess Endgame really did skew how people view the franchise. The MCU base is still the biggest in the film business by a large margin. 

[John Marston]

2 hours ago, YM! said:

Blue Beetle is also the first Hispanic superhero lead with a majority Hispanic cast. It could be big with the right marketing and with the power set being a teen with an Iron Man esque alien suit could be fun. When even Morbius did 70M, I don't see why it would go sub 100M. BOP was R-rated and arguably knee caped by the pandemic and TSS had a bad first movie to overcome, a still strong pandemic and day and date taking away at least half it's potential gross imho.

 

 

BOP had a terrible opening and was tracking for a sub 100m finish before all the pandemic closures started

[Verrows]

6 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

That is interesting seeing that people in the past have complained about sameness and directors not having more creative control lol.  Phase 4 had given directors more free reign (Chloe Zhao, Waititi, Raimi and Coogler) and yet these phase 4 movies have been the weakest (in terms of reception, except Black Panther) whereas movie like Shang Chi and NWH which have followed the "formula" have been successful. Seems like Feige and Marvel was doing it right when they had tight controls over the movies and maybe they should go back to it.

I think in theory people wanted directors to have creative control because that's generally how one would like art to work. However I don't think it took long for them to realize that the MCU is at its best when it follows a formula, specifically when the movies all have a certain uniformity. The best way to portray a shared universe is to make that world feel the same across all media.

 

I think that's just the nature of what the MCU is and honestly, it's fine. I'm not watching the MCU for its artistic merit. I'm tuning in to chapters of one big story, the same way people used to pick up the latest comic book issue every month.

[WittyUsername]

Franchise fatigue does appear to be a very real thing for superhero movies. It’s anyone’s guess if they can turn things around in the next few years, but I think the sheer volume of content on Disney+ that Marvel expects people to keep up with  isn't helping. 
 

 

[TwoMisfits]

4 hours ago, YM! said:

Blue Beetle is also the first Hispanic superhero lead with a majority Hispanic cast. It could be big with the right marketing and with the power set being a teen with an Iron Man esque alien suit could be fun. When even Morbius did 70M, I don't see why it would go sub 100M. BOP was R-rated and arguably knee caped by the pandemic and TSS had a bad first movie to overcome, a still strong pandemic and day and date taking away at least half it's potential gross imho.

 

I agree - and I can't fathom a world where Blue Beetle finishes $30M below Haunted Mansion in BO if they both stick to their release dates...

[TwoMisfits]

4 hours ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

Oof to these The Marvels predictions. The sequel to a massively over-performing A+ zeitgeist film like Black Panther is only dropping 35% but the sequel to a moderately Endgame pumped decently received A film that's now getting a summer release is gonna drop 50-55%? Eternals/Shang Chi releasing during Omicron level OW??
 

Ehhhhhhhhhhh.....

 

Give me 115-135 OW / 280-330 Final. 

 

 

So, we're still talking significant drop...just now it's trying to pinpoint how bad the drop will be.

 

PS - I agree on a drop.  And I agree on a big drop.  

 

 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, WittyUsername said:

Franchise fatigue does appear to be a very real thing for superhero movies. It’s anyone’s guess if they can turn things around in the next few years, but I think the sheer volume of content on Disney+ that Marvel expects people to keep up with  isn't helping. 

 

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┻┳| •.•)    The "sheer volume of content" for the MCU
┳┻|⊂ﾉ             has been dropping and will stay
┻┳|                     at the lowered rate in 2023

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

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┳┻| _ 
┻┳| •.•)    The "sheer volume of content" for the MCU
┳┻|⊂ﾉ             has been dropping and will stay
┻┳|                     at the lowered rate in 2023

 

I think people might not quite realize just how much MCU content on D+ has already been cut back.  Some, hell maybe most, of that was probably 'rona related.  But if we don't count holiday specials [as those being their own thing]:

 

2021

WandaVision

The Falcon and the Winter Soldier
Loki (season 1)
What If...? (season 1)
Hawkeye
 

2022

Moon Knight
Ms. Marvel
She-Hulk: Attorney at Law
Two Specials (Werewolf by Night & The Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special)

 

Five vs three, or five vs three-and-a-half, depending on how one really wants to look at the two holiday related specials.

 

We don't have any dates yet for 2023 MCU D+ content.  Case in point, we don't have a date yet for Secret Invasion, despite rumormongering that it should be "Early 2023".  Hell, I'm not even sure we know for certain that S2 of What If...? is really gonna be on the front half of 2023 given the complete radio silence from Disney on it.

 

This is what's claimed for 2023 according to the "always reliable" Wikipedia:

 

What If...?    (Season 2)
Secret Invasion    
Loki    (Season 2)
Ironheart    
Echo    
Agatha: Coven of Chaos

 

Anyone here really think all of those are hitting 2023?  I sure as hell don't.  Personally I'd put the over-under line at Ironheart being in 2023 with an outside chance of What If...? pulling a Bad Batch and slipping all the way into 2024.  Already rumormongering and tea leaf reading that about half of those shows won't hit 2023 after all.

 

Mando S3 starts on March 1st and, depending on double episodes, last about two months.  How many people here think it, the flagship show of D+, is gonna have a huge overlap with Secret Invasion?  Might have a few weeks of overlap by sheer necessity.  But complete overlap where all of Secret Invasion is concurrent with Mando S3?  Well every day that passes without a firm date for Secret Invasion makes me wonder more about just when SI drops.

 

And the longer it takes SI to get a firm date, the more the rest of the 2023 calendar for the MCU looks uncertain.  They're not gonna fuck with S2 of Loki, so that should get a prime viewing slot, practically all to itself.  But that gives a cascading affect on the calendar given there's still SW D+ content to schedule.

 

Yes, a lot of the scheduling difficulty goes away if Disney truly does commit to overlapping MCU and SW shows.  And maybe they still will (though trying to finagle it so the "prestige" shows have as little overlap as possible).

 

But, gotta tell ya.  Every day that goes by without a date being given to Secret Invasion and especially S2 of What If...? makes me wonder just how committed Disney really is to overlapping MCU and SW.

[Verrows]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I think people might not quite realize just how much MCU content on D+ has already been cut back.  Some, hell maybe most, of that was probably 'rona related.  But if we don't count holiday specials [as those being their own thing]:

 

2021

WandaVision

The Falcon and the Winter Soldier
Loki (season 1)
What If...? (season 1)
Hawkeye
 

2022

Moon Knight
Ms. Marvel
She-Hulk: Attorney at Law
Two Specials (Werewolf by Night & The Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special)

 

Five vs three, or five vs three-and-a-half, depending on how one really wants to look at the two holiday related specials.

 

We don't have any dates yet for 2023 MCU D+ content.  Case in point, we don't have a date yet for Secret Invasion, despite rumormongering that it should be "Early 2023".  Hell, I'm not even sure we know for certain that S2 of What If...? is really gonna be on the front half of 2023 given the complete radio silence from Disney on it.

 

This is what's claimed for 2023 according to the "always reliable" Wikipedia:

 

What If...?    (Season 2)
Secret Invasion    
Loki    (Season 2)
Ironheart    
Echo    
Agatha: Coven of Chaos

 

Anyone here really think all of those are hitting 2023?  I sure as hell don't.  Personally I'd put the over-under line at Ironheart being in 2023 with an outside chance of What If...? pulling a Bad Batch and slipping all the way into 2024.  Already rumormongering and tea leaf reading that about half of those shows won't hit 2023 after all.

 

Mando S3 starts on March 1st and, depending on double episodes, last about two months.  How many people here think it, the flagship show of D+, is gonna have a huge overlap with Secret Invasion?  Might have a few weeks of overlap by sheer necessity.  But complete overlap where all of Secret Invasion is concurrent with Mando S3?  Well every day that passes without a firm date for Secret Invasion makes me wonder more about just when SI drops.

 

And the longer it takes SI to get a firm date, the more the rest of the 2023 calendar for the MCU looks uncertain.  They're not gonna fuck with S2 of Loki, so that should get a prime viewing slot, practically all to itself.  But that gives a cascading affect on the calendar given there's still SW D+ content to schedule.

 

Yes, a lot of the scheduling difficulty goes away if Disney truly does commit to overlapping MCU and SW shows.  And maybe they still will (though trying to finagle it so the "prestige" shows have as little overlap as possible).

 

But, gotta tell ya.  Every day that goes by without a date being given to Secret Invasion and especially S2 of What If...? makes me wonder just how committed Disney really is to overlapping MCU and SW.

Personally I think they'll try overlapping Secret Invasion and Mando. I currently have Secret Invasion pegged for a late March premiere. Same slot as Moon Knight last year.

[Cap]

27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Every day that goes by without a date being given to Secret Invasion and especially S2 of What If...? makes me wonder just how committed Disney really is to overlapping MCU and SW.

They should be absolutely committed to not doing that again. Just no need. 
 

Also, in terms of content overload… it’s almost like there was this thing, called a global pandemic, that delayed the release schedule for almost a year and a half, so we got four years worth of content in two. 🤔
 

ETA: 

 

I would also not confuse fatigue for malcontent. The MCU as a grown-up fandom now. We clearly exited the honeymoon phase when everything is sunshine and lollipops and rainbows, and now we’re into Complaining TM. But just because we’re complaining about things, doesn’t mean we’re gonna stop watching. I’m sure that @Porthos can tell you all about THAT phenomenon 😘

[WittyUsername]

22 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I think people might not quite realize just how much MCU content on D+ has already been cut back.  Some, hell maybe most, of that was probably 'rona related.  But if we don't count holiday specials [as those being their own thing]:

 

2021

WandaVision

The Falcon and the Winter Soldier
Loki (season 1)
What If...? (season 1)
Hawkeye
 

2022

Moon Knight
Ms. Marvel
She-Hulk: Attorney at Law
Two Specials (Werewolf by Night & The Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special)

 

Five vs three, or five vs three-and-a-half, depending on how one really wants to look at the two holiday related specials.

 

We don't have any dates yet for 2023 MCU D+ content.  Case in point, we don't have a date yet for Secret Invasion, despite rumormongering that it should be "Early 2023".  Hell, I'm not even sure we know for certain that S2 of What If...? is really gonna be on the front half of 2023 given the complete radio silence from Disney on it.

 

This is what's claimed for 2023 according to the "always reliable" Wikipedia:

 

What If...?    (Season 2)
Secret Invasion    
Loki    (Season 2)
Ironheart    
Echo    
Agatha: Coven of Chaos

 

Anyone here really think all of those are hitting 2023?  I sure as hell don't.  Personally I'd put the over-under line at Ironheart being in 2023 with an outside chance of What If...? pulling a Bad Batch and slipping all the way into 2024.  Already rumormongering and tea leaf reading that about half of those shows won't hit 2023 after all.

 

Mando S3 starts on March 1st and, depending on double episodes, last about two months.  How many people here think it, the flagship show of D+, is gonna have a huge overlap with Secret Invasion?  Might have a few weeks of overlap by sheer necessity.  But complete overlap where all of Secret Invasion is concurrent with Mando S3?  Well every day that passes without a firm date for Secret Invasion makes me wonder more about just when SI drops.

 

And the longer it takes SI to get a firm date, the more the rest of the 2023 calendar for the MCU looks uncertain.  They're not gonna fuck with S2 of Loki, so that should get a prime viewing slot, practically all to itself.  But that gives a cascading affect on the calendar given there's still SW D+ content to schedule.

 

Yes, a lot of the scheduling difficulty goes away if Disney truly does commit to overlapping MCU and SW shows.  And maybe they still will (though trying to finagle it so the "prestige" shows have as little overlap as possible).

 

But, gotta tell ya.  Every day that goes by without a date being given to Secret Invasion and especially S2 of What If...? makes me wonder just how committed Disney really is to overlapping MCU and SW.

That’s all well and good, and I do remember hearing a rumor that Marvel is planning to space things out a bit more after Phase Four proved to be something of a mixed bag for them. At the very least, there’s currently a nine month gap scheduled between The Marvels and Captain America 4, and Secret Wars was moved to 2026, which is much better than releasing it just six months after Kang Dynasty. 

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, Cap said:

 

I would also not confuse fatigue for malcontent. The MCU as a grown-up fandom now. We clearly exited the honeymoon phase when everything is sunshine and lollipops and rainbows, and now we’re into Complaining TM. But just because we’re complaining about things, doesn’t mean we’re gonna stop watching. I’m sure that @Porthos can tell you all about THAT phenomenon 

 

 

[Cap]

So I think @WrathOfHan and @Eric in Boots got us properly riled up with some *~*~*~ controversy ~*~*~*, so I am very excited to continue this energy when they drop their Equalizer 3 hot takes.

 

 

[Factcheck]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

I think people might not quite realize just how much MCU content on D+ has already been cut back.  Some, hell maybe most, of that was probably 'rona related.  But if we don't count holiday specials [as those being their own thing]:

 

2021

WandaVision

The Falcon and the Winter Soldier
Loki (season 1)
What If...? (season 1)
Hawkeye
 

2022

Moon Knight
Ms. Marvel
She-Hulk: Attorney at Law
Two Specials (Werewolf by Night & The Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special)

 

Five vs three, or five vs three-and-a-half, depending on how one really wants to look at the two holiday related specials.

 

We don't have any dates yet for 2023 MCU D+ content.  Case in point, we don't have a date yet for Secret Invasion, despite rumormongering that it should be "Early 2023".  Hell, I'm not even sure we know for certain that S2 of What If...? is really gonna be on the front half of 2023 given the complete radio silence from Disney on it.

 

This is what's claimed for 2023 according to the "always reliable" Wikipedia:

 

What If...?    (Season 2)
Secret Invasion    
Loki    (Season 2)
Ironheart    
Echo    
Agatha: Coven of Chaos

 

Anyone here really think all of those are hitting 2023?  I sure as hell don't.  Personally I'd put the over-under line at Ironheart being in 2023 with an outside chance of What If...? pulling a Bad Batch and slipping all the way into 2024.  Already rumormongering and tea leaf reading that about half of those shows won't hit 2023 after all.

 

Mando S3 starts on March 1st and, depending on double episodes, last about two months.  How many people here think it, the flagship show of D+, is gonna have a huge overlap with Secret Invasion?  Might have a few weeks of overlap by sheer necessity.  But complete overlap where all of Secret Invasion is concurrent with Mando S3?  Well every day that passes without a firm date for Secret Invasion makes me wonder more about just when SI drops.

 

And the longer it takes SI to get a firm date, the more the rest of the 2023 calendar for the MCU looks uncertain.  They're not gonna fuck with S2 of Loki, so that should get a prime viewing slot, practically all to itself.  But that gives a cascading affect on the calendar given there's still SW D+ content to schedule.

 

Yes, a lot of the scheduling difficulty goes away if Disney truly does commit to overlapping MCU and SW shows.  And maybe they still will (though trying to finagle it so the "prestige" shows have as little overlap as possible).

 

But, gotta tell ya.  Every day that goes by without a date being given to Secret Invasion and especially S2 of What If...? makes me wonder just how committed Disney really is to overlapping MCU and SW.

The Disney+ Japan site says Secret Invasion, Loki, Iron Heart. are releasing this year. Also as per Echo showrunner Marion Dayre Echo will be releasing in Dec this year. Marvel Studios is also developing 2 Halloween specials as per a credible leaker, and one might release this year, so 4-5 D+ MCU projects are releasing this year.

Edited January 3, 2023 by Factcheck

[WrathOfHan]

August 4

 

The Meg 2: The Trench: Should we unban BKB for this one?   Despite being a surprise hit for Summer 2018, The Meg hasn't sat particularly well in the public consciousness amidst the barrage of MonsterVerse movies. Jason Statham also had F&F reigniting his popularity, which has fizzled by now. Multiple Megs won't be enough to rescue this ship from a 50%. 25/70 (2.8x)

 

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem: Is there really interest in an animated Ninja Turtle movie after the pandemic and Paramount+? It's another origin story less than ten years after the live action reboot, and based on the 2016 film's performance/drop off, there won't be a curiosity factor this time around unless there's strong critical acclaim with it. The kids will enjoy it as a late summer film (and the 40 year old men), but that's about it. 20/70 (3.5x)

[WrathOfHan]

August 11

 

Haunted Mansion: Pre-pandemic when audiences still cared about comedies and Tiffany Haddish was a rising star, this might've been a 200M grosser. The 2003 Haunted Mansion performed relatively well despite negative WOM thanks to Eddie Murphy's appeal, and the cast this time around is STACKED. This is the second to last four quad movie coming out until Kraven in October, so as long as WOM isn't terrible/Disney doesn't dump it onto D+ immediately, it'll have a nice leggy run into Halloween. 35/155 (4.43x)

 

The Last Voyage of the Demeter: August horror flicks tend to have decent luck, but releasing an oceanic film one week after The Meg isn't doing any favors. This should move to late September after The Nun 2 burns through its audience. If it stays in summer, it needs to rely on strong, early WOM. 10/30 (3x)

 

Gran Turismo: So this isn't really a video game adaptation? It sounds so far out of Neill Blomkamp's wheelhouse (no pun intended) and nothing more than a mid-budget, late summer drama. Dunno how happy audiences will be if that title sticks. 8/24 (3x)

Edited January 3, 2023 by WrathOfHan

[robertman2]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

August 11

 

Haunted Mansion: Pre-pandemic when audiences still cared about comedies and Tiffany Haddish was a rising star, this might've been a 200M grosser. The 2003 Haunted Mansion performed relatively well despite negative WOM thanks to Eddie Murphy's appeal, and the cast this time around is STACKED. This is the second to last four quad movie coming out until Kraven in October, so as long as WOM isn't terrible/Disney doesn't dump it onto D+ immediately, it'll have a nice leggy run into Halloween. 35/155 (4.43x)

 

The Last Voyage of the Demeter: August horror flicks tend to have decent luck, but releasing an oceanic film one week after The Meg isn't doing any favors. This should move to late September after The Nun 2 burns through its audience. If it stays in summer, it needs to rely on strong, early WOM. 10/30 (3x)

 

Gran Turismo: So this isn't really a video game adaptation? It sounds so far out of Neill Blomkamp's wheelhouse (no pun intended) and nothing more than a mid-budget, late summer drama. Dunno how happy audiences will be if that title sticks. 8/24 (3x)

It's a video game adaptation