Han and Eric's (Not-So) Controversial Predictions of 2023

[WrathOfHan]

August 18

 

Blue Beetle: The one that got away from Zaslav's clutches, Blue Beetle is the THIRD of FOUR DC movies coming out this year and, again, will suffer from the change in leadership. Blue Beetle isn't a household name, but since the movie was good enough to move from HBO Max, maybe there's something here. I wouldn't expect a large gross regardless. 20/70 (3.5x)

[Eric Loves Rey]

5 minutes ago, RobrtmanAStarWarsReference said:

It's a video game adaptation

You're a video game adaptation.

[SchumacherFTW]

4 hours ago, RobrtmanAStarWarsReference said:

It's a video game adaptation

It's a biopic that uses Gran Turismo as the macguffin 

[lorddemaxus]

I'm calling it. Blue Beetle > The Flash

[Eric Loves Rey]

September 1

The Equalizer 3: Well, we have...a release for Labor Day. That’s something. It’s no Shang-Chi, but I can see this doing well. A fall from the last two should happen, but it will only be slight. Denzel’s character is a popular one and the Queen Latifah show has kept the popularity of the franchise afloat over the past couple years. Plus September and even October are barren wastelands this year. It's baffling why these studios put in so many heavy-hitters in the summer, cannibalizing each other, but are piss-scared putting big movies in the fall. Still, this will do well and we’ll probably get a fourth one down the road. 25/30/90 (3.6x)

[Eric Loves Rey]

September 8

The Nun 2: The first Nun was complete doo-doo and there’s nothing that suggests this sequel will be all that much better, even with Akela Cooper being a credited writer. It’ll drop more than half from the last film and nobody will care. Conjuring 4 can't come soon enough. 25/50 (2x)

[Eric Loves Rey]

September 15

A Haunting in Venice: I’m generally not a “who asked for this” kind of guy. There’s almost always an understandable reason a film is greenlit, even if the final product doesn't actually turn out well. But really...who actually asked for this? Even without Omicron and Armie Hammer's allegations, Death on the Nile was always going to drop like a rock from Orient Express. Plus these Poirot films are considered passable at best, and I doubt this movie will be much better. This isn't even based on a popular Christie story anways. Are they just trying to bank on Michelle Yeoh’s potential Oscar win to get people invested? That’s the only reason this film's existence makes any sense. Anyhoo, bombs away, but Branagh will probably get a boring Poirot Hulu show to compensate for all this. 10/35 (3.5x)

[Eric Loves Rey]

September 22

The Expendables 4: I know I got dogged for saying this about Gran Turismo. But honestly, who the hell cares about The Expendables in the year of our lord 2023? It doesn't even seem like the few fans who are out there will get much out of this. The cast has been cut back considerably, what names remain aren't all that exciting, and Stallone was given the "And" credit on the poster, which implies the star will barely even be in this movie. What a waste of time. 11/25 (2.27x)

 

Next Goal Wins: Not a nostalgic toy commercial. And while part of the delays is because of casting Armie Hammer, the tea seems to be that this movie sucks anyways. Next! 4/11 (2.75x)

[filmlover]

9 hours ago, 3RIC said:

September 15

A Haunting in Venice: I’m generally not a “who asked for this” kind of guy. There’s almost always an understandable reason a film is greenlit, even if the final product doesn't actually turn out well. But really...who actually asked for this?

Death on the Nile did reasonably well at the box office given the global circumstances at the time and the fact it was always more of an international bet than a domestic one (not to mention ended up one of the few relative bright spots for adult moviegoing in all of 2022 - Elvis and Where the Crawdads Sing were the only dramas to make more) and likely performed even better on PVOD/streaming. Thus it's not difficult to see why they were able to justify finishing a trilogy.

[WrathOfHan]

September 1

 

The Equalizer 3: Equalizer 2 lucked out with a gross on par with the first thanks to a prime summer release date and weak market for older skewing films. People go to these movies to see Denzel kick some ass, but with the pandemic and concurrent TV series, a big shift in box office might come this time around. While the fall frame isn't strong for older skewing films, it has to deal with the new Poirot and Expendables later in the month. I'd expect a fairly standard drop to make up for the last one staying flat, but the potential to stay at 100 or drop below 50 also exists. 20/23/70 (3.5x from 3 day/3.04x from 4 day)

[WrathOfHan]

September 8

 

The Nun 2: Annabelle 3 saw a sizable decrease from its predecessor with ok reviews, so why would The Nun 2, possibly the most hated Conjuring-verse movie, not drop horrendously? Conjuring 3 was obviously hindered by the HBO Max dual release but still saw a 35% decrease from the second. The Nun coasted off the franchise's popularity peak, and while the brand still has some appeal, it won't be enough to salvage bad memories from the first one. 20/45 (2.25x)

[WrathOfHan]

September 15

 

A Haunting in Venice: This has even less of a starry cast than Death on the Nile; Tina Fey and Michelle Yeoh are the only reasonable draws here. It's a random adaptation and can't really bank off Christie without a direct title. I'm just not sure how this increases from Death on the Nile's already sizable drop when it didn't gain an audience via streaming. 10/35 (3.5x)

[WrathOfHan]

September 22

 

Expend4bles: It's been over ten years since the last Expendables, and despite the 100M price tag, this one's lost most of the cast. The third barely turned a profit off a similar budget, and yet again, older audiences being slow to return to theaters will hinder this film's performance. The last Rambo flopping is probably an even worse sign on Stallone's current star power. No one cares anymore. 15/50 (3.33x)

 

Next Goal Wins: Searchlight and Taika have been pretending this movie doesn't exist for several years now. I expect a quick and quiet gross even if it's good. 4/12 (3x)

 

[DAJK]

15/50 seems kind of... decent for Expendables lol.

[CJohn]

Expendables 4 is gonna gross less than 15M in total. You read it here first.

[Eric Loves Rey]

October 6

Kraven the Hunter: Oh Sony, you silly little morons. You try so hard with your silly Spider-Man villain universe that nobody cares about. “It’s Kraven Time” rolls off the tongue better, and the character is more popular, but it’s not as memeable and I doubt this will be anything good. Even with zero competition, this is only going slightly over Morbius. 35/70 (2.14x)

 

True Love: There's no real information about the plot yet, so it's very tough to predict anything. But, and I know I've been a broken record here, audiences only want to see nostalgic toy commercials. And True Love isn't that. Better than Amsterdam, because I'm assuming (or at least hoping) it's better than that travesty, but not that much better than that. 10/30 (3x)

[Eric Loves Rey]

October 13

The Exorcist: The property is still popular, but it’s no Halloween. It also doesn't help that Ellen Burstyn isn’t as big a name as Jamie Lee Curtis, who was a big reason the 2018 Halloween was as big as it was. With this unlikely to be very good either, this will probably do about half of Halloween parentheses 2018. Should still be profitable enough that we’ll get those two sequels, but those films won’t make much of anything. 40/80 (2x)

PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie: The last film still did about 40M despite the Delta scares and Paramount+ availability. And judging from some of my friends who have little kids, the franchise hasn’t lost any steam in the past year. There will be enough kids dragging their poor parents to this, but I still think it will make slightly less than the last movie if only because the novelty won't be as strong. 12/36 (3x)

[Eric Loves Rey]

October 27

Saw X: Jigsaw numbers. Yeah, I don’t have anything else to say. I really don’t care about these movies to think any more or explain more and this franchise has a very specific niche that always turns up. Moving on! 15/30 (2x)

[filmlover]

Certainly David Gordon Green's Exorcist legacy sequel will be closer to his Halloween '18 than either of its garbage sequels that somehow also came from him, right?

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Certainly David Gordon Green's Exorcist legacy sequel will be closer to his Halloween '18 than either of its garbage sequels that somehow also came from him, right?

 

In numbers? Probably not, Exorcist is not as popular as Halloween.

 

In quality? After having seen Halloween Kills ... God himself probably coudnt convince me that David Gordon Green is an actual good director.