Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[LinksterAC]

1 minute ago, Legion in Boots said:

If I had them on hand I would have but I’ll need to do a little digging (I’ve definitely seen at least one on Reddit, I think multiple, and maybe one over here and one on some other site?) and I’m about to go to sleep. I can find some for you in 10 hrs or so if nobody else has provided the goods by then.

Thanks. Would love to understand the methodology & the results.

[Deep Wang]

28 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

reminder to the cinemascore fanatics that the original Avatar got an A, not an A+

so you know Jim films are extremely rewatchable, what exactly is it that makes you think A2 won't be the same?

 

One of the reasons is just going to be cost.  I really, really wish I remember what my IMAX 3D tickets cost for the first one since I saw it so many times, but I'm not paying $20-25 to see this again.  

[TwoMisfits]

FYI - Looking at my locals for presales for Jan 3rd on...while they have had 10am and 1pm shows on weekdays from summer through the fall, they MAY be changing their hours to 2pm shows onward for the winter.  Right now, they are not preselling any show before 2pm on weekdays, whether it's Avatar or Megan.

 

Not sure how widespread this will be, but I guess theaters looked at the January release schedule...

[Alex SciChannel]

Whitney Houston, The Whale, Devotion, and Avatar fell -22%, -19%, -25%, and -25%. The range seems to hover around -20% so I expect that to be the running drop for most. 

 

Most except Puss in Boots of course

Edited December 28, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Alex SciChannel]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/new-years-weekend-box-office-forecast-avatar-the-way-of-water-to-continue-stretching-its-legs-pacing-for-400m-domestic-total-through-long-holiday-frame/

 

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 1	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd	4-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Monday, January 2
Avatar: The Way of Water	Disney & 20th Century Studios	$56,000,000	$414,300,000	~4,202	-12%	$73,900,000	$432,300,000
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation	$14,900,000	$56,900,000	~4,099	+20%	$19,800,000	$61,800,000
I Wanna Dance with Somebody	Sony / Columbia Pictures	$4,400,000	$15,100,000	~3,625	-8%	$5,700,000	$16,400,000
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	Disney & Marvel Studios	$3,900,000	$436,800,000	~2,250	+12%	$5,200,000	$438,100,000
Babylon	Paramount Pictures	$2,900,000	$10,500,000	~3,343	-19%	$3,800,000	$11,400,000
Violent Night	Universal Pictures	$2,500,000	$48,100,000	~2,500	-29%	$3,200,000	$48,800,000
The Whale	A24	$1,500,000	$5,800,000	~625	+51%	$2,000,000	$6,300,000
The Fabelmans	Universal Pictures	$1,000,000	$12,000,000	~1,100	+34%	$1,300,000	$12,300,000
The Menu	Disney / Searchlight Pictures	$900,000	$35,900,000	~840	+33%	$1,200,000	$36,200,000
Strange World	Walt Disney Pictures	$475,000	$36,900,000	~1,300	+15%	$655,000	$37,100,000

Edited December 28, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[M37]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

There is really nothing in the trajectory of this movie - only the previous ones from this director - that suggests some -10% weekly run is imminent 

CC: @IronJimbo, @Alexdube, @Legion in Boots, @Deep Wang

 

Alright, lets get into January legs talk for real. I'm a visual person, so I mapped out the trajectory of the first 10 weeks of the recent December tentpoles and previous James Cameron films to show how they held and reached those legs over the long haul. Showing the retention by week (which is skewed a bit in the first 3 weeks depending on when holidays fall)

Note: shown in log scale since we're dealing with drop rate (exponential decay)

 

• TLJ (yellow arrows) - clearly a victim of WOM, it kept dropping far faster and by late January was on its way out (also only film besides Titanic to have Xmas in opening week)
• NWH (red arrows) - can see it was shallowing the comparable SW films for the holiday weeks 2 and 3, due to some combination of Omicron hesitancy and MCU spoiler/fan rush, but then caught up by mid January, and posted significantly better holds into February (all with a lighter release calendar)
• TFA/RO (black arrow) - interesting to note that through week 6, TFA and RO were pacing very similarly. But on that week, RO faced the 1-2 punch of Split and XXX: Xander Cage, fell back, and never recovered, while TFA continued to hold very well into February despite some major competition (including Deadpool)
• Titanic/Avatar (blue arrow) - notice anything different about weeks 2 and 3 here? Both increased from week 1 to week 2, and even by week 3 were miles ahead of anything else on this list. That trend continued during their respective runs; by week 6, nothing else was pulling even 6% of the OWeek gross, while they were at 62% & 35% retention

We're more than halfway through week 2 for Avatwo, and its looking to finish around 85% of the Oweek, slightly better than TFA (78%) and RO (80%). I have it penciled in to continue that for the following week, above but still very much in line with the SW comps. An optimistic outlook is that it tracks above RO/TFA through January and then more like NWH through February, but that's still probably like a $560-$580M finish

 

Once again,there really is no data to suggest we're on the precipice of some magical run in the new year and a burst to $600M, and we're really running out of time for it to suddenly appear

[Deep Wang]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

CC: @IronJimbo, @Alexdube, @Legion in Boots, @Deep Wang

 

Alright, lets get into January legs talk for real. I'm a visual person, so I mapped out the trajectory of the first 10 weeks of the recent December tentpoles and previous James Cameron films to show how they held and reached those legs over the long haul. Showing the retention by week (which is skewed a bit in the first 3 weeks depending on when holidays fall)

Note: shown in log scale since we're dealing with drop rate (exponential decay)

 

• TLJ (yellow arrows) - clearly a victim of WOM, it kept dropping far faster and by late January was on its way out (also only film besides Titanic to have Xmas in opening week)
• NWH (red arrows) - can see it was shallowing the comparable SW films for the holiday weeks 2 and 3, due to some combination of Omicron hesitancy and MCU spoiler/fan rush, but then caught up by mid January, and posted significantly better holds into February (all with a lighter release calendar)
• TFA/RO (black arrow) - interesting to note that through week 6, TFA and RO were pacing very similarly. But on that week, RO faced the 1-2 punch of Split and XXX: Xander Cage, fell back, and never recovered, while TFA continued to hold very well into February despite some major competition (including Deadpool)
• Titanic/Avatar (blue arrow) - notice anything different about weeks 2 and 3 here? Both increased from week 1 to week 2, and even by week 3 were miles ahead of anything else on this list. That trend continued during their respective runs; by week 6, nothing else was pulling even 6% of the OWeek gross, while they were at 62% & 35% retention

We're more than halfway through week 2 for Avatwo, and its looking to finish around 85% of the Oweek, slightly better than TFA (78%) and RO (80%). I have it penciled in to continue that for the following week, above but still very much in line with the SW comps. An optimistic outlook is that it tracks above RO/TFA through January and then more like NWH through February, but that's still probably like a $560-$580M finish

 

Once again,there really is no data to suggest we're on the precipice of some magical run in the new year and a burst to $600M, and we're really running out of time for it to suddenly appear

 

Man, I really wish you'd put some effort into your research. 

 

😜

[Torontofan]

14 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/new-years-weekend-box-office-forecast-avatar-the-way-of-water-to-continue-stretching-its-legs-pacing-for-400m-domestic-total-through-long-holiday-frame/

 

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 1	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd	4-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Monday, January 2
Avatar: The Way of Water	Disney & 20th Century Studios	$56,000,000	$414,300,000	~4,202	-12%	$73,900,000	$432,300,000
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation	$14,900,000	$56,900,000	~4,099	+20%	$19,800,000	$61,800,000
I Wanna Dance with Somebody	Sony / Columbia Pictures	$4,400,000	$15,100,000	~3,625	-8%	$5,700,000	$16,400,000
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	Disney & Marvel Studios	$3,900,000	$436,800,000	~2,250	+12%	$5,200,000	$438,100,000
Babylon	Paramount Pictures	$2,900,000	$10,500,000	~3,343	-19%	$3,800,000	$11,400,000
Violent Night	Universal Pictures	$2,500,000	$48,100,000	~2,500	-29%	$3,200,000	$48,800,000
The Whale	A24	$1,500,000	$5,800,000	~625	+51%	$2,000,000	$6,300,000
The Fabelmans	Universal Pictures	$1,000,000	$12,000,000	~1,100	+34%	$1,300,000	$12,300,000
The Menu	Disney / Searchlight Pictures	$900,000	$35,900,000	~840	+33%	$1,200,000	$36,200,000
Strange World	Walt Disney Pictures	$475,000	$36,900,000	~1,300	+15%	$655,000	$37,100,000

 

means close to 1.4 billion by monday oof lol 

[M37]

3 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Man, I really wish you'd put some effort into your research. 

 

😜

It’s honestly easier for me to spend 20-30 mins to scrape data and make a graph to show what I’m seeing in the data then try to explain it in words a paragraph at a time 

 

I got pretty good at that process while tracking COVID numbers, unfortunately 

Edited December 28, 2022 by M37

[kayumanggi]

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

CC: @IronJimbo, @Alexdube, @Legion in Boots, @Deep Wang

 

Alright, lets get into January legs talk for real. I'm a visual person, so I mapped out the trajectory of the first 10 weeks of the recent December tentpoles and previous James Cameron films to show how they held and reached those legs over the long haul. Showing the retention by week (which is skewed a bit in the first 3 weeks depending on when holidays fall)

Note: shown in log scale since we're dealing with drop rate (exponential decay)

 

• TLJ (yellow arrows) - clearly a victim of WOM, it kept dropping far faster and by late January was on its way out (also only film besides Titanic to have Xmas in opening week)
• NWH (red arrows) - can see it was shallowing the comparable SW films for the holiday weeks 2 and 3, due to some combination of Omicron hesitancy and MCU spoiler/fan rush, but then caught up by mid January, and posted significantly better holds into February (all with a lighter release calendar)
• TFA/RO (black arrow) - interesting to note that through week 6, TFA and RO were pacing very similarly. But on that week, RO faced the 1-2 punch of Split and XXX: Xander Cage, fell back, and never recovered, while TFA continued to hold very well into February despite some major competition (including Deadpool)
• Titanic/Avatar (blue arrow) - notice anything different about weeks 2 and 3 here? Both increased from week 1 to week 2, and even by week 3 were miles ahead of anything else on this list. That trend continued during their respective runs; by week 6, nothing else was pulling even 6% of the OWeek gross, while they were at 62% & 35% retention

We're more than halfway through week 2 for Avatwo, and its looking to finish around 85% of the Oweek, slightly better than TFA (78%) and RO (80%). I have it penciled in to continue that for the following week, above but still very much in line with the SW comps. An optimistic outlook is that it tracks above RO/TFA through January and then more like NWH through February, but that's still probably like a $560-$580M finish

 

Once again,there really is no data to suggest we're on the precipice of some magical run in the new year and a burst to $600M, and we're really running out of time for it to suddenly appear

The math is undeniable. This is why I’ve been a staunch supporter of your club from the very beginning….

 

[kayumanggi]

lol Cringe dude actually rounded it off correctly this time. 😅

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

 

you know NWH had the second largest opening weekend of all time right?

Yes, so do SW7 which had way better legs despite lower Cinemascore 

 

So you know, maybe say that 1 movie certainly is more rewatchable than the other based on CinemaScore isn't that realiable, which is what i said the whole time

[kayumanggi]

Deadline

 

Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish held solid with $6.7M on Tuesday, -2% from its Dec. 26 Monday of $6.8M, when many were off from work for the holiday. The sequel’s running total through seven days stands at $32.8M, 40% behind Sing 2 last year which also opened on a Wednesday.

[kayumanggi]

Also from Deadline

 

That Tuesday take of Avatar 2 was more than the post Christmas Tuesdays of Spider-Man: No Way Home ($21.3M) and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($22.5M), which has been the comp to the James Cameron directed sequel since opening. Avatar 2’s 12th day of release was also higher than that of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, which saw its second Tuesday falling on New Year’s Eve in 2019 and making $13.2M.

 

Rogue One crossed $400M stateside mark back in 2016 on its New Year’s Eve Saturday. Can Avatar 2 do the same?

[Alex SciChannel]

6 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

lol Cringe dude actually rounded it off correctly this time. 😅

Had 318M as Domestic Total tho. So still cringe

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Deadline

 

Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish held solid with $6.7M on Tuesday, -2% from its Dec. 26 Monday of $6.8M, when many were off from work for the holiday. The sequel’s running total through seven days stands at $32.8M, 40% behind Sing 2 last year which also opened on a Wednesday.

It’s been following Chipwrecked closely, with the same holds it’ll be at a $16m second weekend.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

22 minutes ago, M37 said:

, and we're really running out of time for it to suddenly appear

 

It hasn't even completed its second week...

 

However,

 

RO's second Monday was 45% of its opening day. A2's was 60%.