Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[Sheldon Cr]

6 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

I´m liking what´s going on right now from Avatar. Hoping for 600M+. 

 

target is

650-700M+( Hopefully much much more brother)

👍😉

 

[Alexdube]

12 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 

This isn't what I said though. I said people who think 10% over R1 isn't a good number have unrealistic expectations. 

 

[Dragoncaine]

Maybe my heart isn't so misguided after all with that $20.4m hope post earlier...

[Alex SciChannel]

47 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

I don't like the double standard that going lower means you're being "realistic" while going over means you're being a "fanboy" or whatever. I'll happily let it go but calling me "pain in the ass" is uncalled for, I wasn't trolling I was just genuinely asking what he meant by that number

 

Going lower doesn't necessarily coincide with "realistic". But it is better than being bullish because the latter, more often than not, will end with you being disappointed with the actuals. Which really is an ironic paradox many fan boys on here take part in, not limited to Avatar.

[mikeymichael]

Man, A2's run so far has been a really interesting one. I feel like we're still kind of waiting to see how it's going to turn out, whether there's a potential for a breakout (which has seemed unlikely since OW, but not totally impossible) or whether it's going to peter out into disappointment. If it keeps tracking alongside RO, never does break out, and finishes somewhere in the 500s, it will be sort of a letdown, but for now I remain extremely curious and still a bit optimistic that there's the chance for some exciting days ahead. 

Edited December 29, 2022 by mikeymichael

[Ronin46]

27 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

I don't disagree with any of this.

What I didn't like was the comment that going 10% over R1 is somehow "unrealistic". People are already floating 20 as a possibility

That is all. No hard feelings, I'm over it, let's move on.

 

I read it as 20 was realistic but 21 not so.

 

I think XXR was just saying (and I agree with) is that being 10% over R1 is good and people thinking that's not good is unrealistic.

Personally I was expecting 18 to 18.5 today so being close to 20 to me is a very good number. I was not expecting it to gain again on R1 until the weekend and then outpace it easily next week.

Seeing holds over R1 comfortable during the week to me is a huge plus.

 

Anyway we move on and hope for 20+ today. 

[Flip]

It’s great that for Avatar it will have all the PLF’s until Ant Man, 2 months of no PLF competition and minimal competition otherwise is great. It probably won’t stay #1 but the movies it’s going up against (Knock at the Cabin,    M3gan, and Magic Mike) are in completely different genres.

[Verrows]

1 hour ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Canada has way more Discount Tuesday action, doesn’t it? Probably cannot count on that type of extra boost for Wednesday. 

Yep Tuesday has been a big movie going day here for as long as I can remember. Cheap Tuesday really makes a difference. It's often the difference between if people see a movie or not.

[Grebacio]

Now that the year is ending, what are your favorite box office runs/stories of the year?

Mines are:

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once being on the top 10 for 13 consecutive weekends.

2. Top Gun Maverick having a 5.67x multi after a 126M OW

3. Smile surpassing 100M Dom and having a 4.7x multi.

4. Dog doing 61M during Omicron.

 

 

[Verrows]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I think June and July would be the most fun next year. 😁

Oh yeah it's going to be pretty insane, both in terms of following the box office and for me personally. That stretch from June 30 to July 28 I will be at the theatre every weekend! June is busy but there are a few take it or leave it weekends (Ie. I can take or leave Across the Spider-Verse on June 2 and Transformers on June 9 but every weekend in July, + Indiana Jones on the 30th of June, has something that's a must see for me.

 

Yes, the new Insidious on July 7 is one of them. I'm a total sucker for supernatural horror!

[StreamBO]

The being conservative because of embarasment is pathetic, specially because is a prediction, not facts, so the "fanboys" should have nothing to worry about, overprojecting is no worse than underprojecting, saying that it is, is possibly hypocritical. 

[kayumanggi]

Just now, Grebacio said:

Now that the year is ending, what are your favorite box office runs/stories of the year?

Mines are:

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once being on the top 10 for 13 consecutive weekends.

2. Top Gun Maverick having a 5.67x multi after a 126M OW

3. Smile surpassing 100M Dom and having a 4.7x multi.

4. Dog doing 61M during Omicron.

 

 

 

It's definitely TOP GUN: MAVERICK for me. It's a once in a decade kind of performance, imo.

[kayumanggi]

2 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Oh yeah it's going to be pretty insane, both in terms of following the box office and for me personally. That stretch from June 30 to July 28 I will be at the theatre every weekend! June is busy but there are a few take it or leave it weekends (Ie. I can take or leave Across the Spider-Verse on June 2 and Transformers on June 9 but every weekend in July, + Indiana Jones on the 30th of June, has something that's a must see for me.

 

Yes, the new Insidious on July 7 is one of them. I'm a total sucker for supernatural horror!

 

I have just realized the cost of watching all of the big movies in those 2 months. 😅 I even haven't counted May and August. I'll try to see as many as possible. It would be a great time at the cinemas.

[Alex SciChannel]

2 minutes ago, StreamBO said:

The being conservative because of embarasment is pathetic, specially because is a prediction, not facts, so the "fanboys" should have nothing to worry about, overprojecting is no worse than underprojecting, saying that it is, is possibly hypocritical. 

There is a stark difference. Fanboys overprojecting are setting themselves for disappointment when actuals come in. It's better to project within a range than a pinpoint prediction. And conservative projections are preferred by me because I don't have to witness these threads have midlife crisis meltdowns every time a comscore projection comes out. And in the turn enter the denial stages of grief live on the forum as they try to convince themselves the underperformance was actually good this whole time.

 

My dudes, you wouldn't have go through the bipolar manic episode this sub goes through every week if ya'll weren't so bullish with your predictions. I'm not saying be conservative, that's just my preference. Just be realistic dammit, and don't complain when someone else's projection is under your own.

 

At the end of the day, the actuals will come and predictions won't matter. What will matter is the reactions afterward and their maturity. The constant meltdowns and echochambering some do here on the forum is not good.

[Ronin46]

3 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I have just realized the cost of watching all of the big movies in those 2 months. 😅 I even haven't counted May and August. I'll try to see as many as possible. It would be a great time at the cinemas.

 

We really needed some better counter programming over Christmas. Lots and lots of movies moved away scared of A2 and there was room for something pretty big to do ok. I realize Babylon and IWDWS did poorly but they also were not "that well recieved by audiences". Looking at how well the Menu and Violent Night held, you could see something decent could have done well if it was available. I even think the Tom Hanks movie should have opened over Christmas. Would have legged it out ok.  

[Ronin46]

1 minute ago, Alex SciChannel said:

There is a stark difference. Fanboys overprojecting are setting themselves for disappointment when actuals come in. It's better to project within a range than a pinpoint prediction. And conservative projections are preferred by me because I don't have to witness these threads have midlife crisis meltdowns every time a comscore projection comes out. And in the turn enter the denial stages of grief live on the forum as they try to convince themselves the underperformance was actually good this whole time.

 

My dudes, you wouldn't have go through the bipolar manic episode this sub goes through every week if ya'll weren't so bullish with your predictions. I'm not saying be conservative, that's just my preference. Just be realistic dammit, and don't complain when someone else's projection is under your own.

 

At the end of the day, the actuals will come and predictions won't matter. What will matter is the reactions afterward and their maturity. The constant meltdowns and echochambering some do here on the forum is not good.

 

Fanboys really is an abrasive term. Dont really like when it does. Just tilts the discussion on a me against them type of scenario. Sometimes its warranted but it would be good if it could be expressed less dismissively.

[VanillaSkies]

I saw I Wanna Dance With Somebody tonight. It’s a good biopic, it’s a shame Sony dropped the ball with marketing. I feel if it was better known that it was out and a crowd pleaser, it would have done much better. Oh well, it will hopefully find an audience on streaming. Sony movies still going to Netflix?

[Verrows]

23 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Now that the year is ending, what are your favorite box office runs/stories of the year?

Mines are:

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once being on the top 10 for 13 consecutive weekends.

2. Top Gun Maverick having a 5.67x multi after a 126M OW

3. Smile surpassing 100M Dom and having a 4.7x multi.

4. Dog doing 61M during Omicron.

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick seems.like the easy answer but to be honest for me it's Minions. I just remember feeling like it was so refreshing for something to blow away expectations like that, which is weird because Top Fun was that AND THEN SOME so I don't know why I felt an even greater high for Minions. I think it was because, for whatever reason, that weekend was the first that felt like pre-pandemic times. And not just like 2019, but 2015 or something. Can't really put a finger on it. Both Top Gun and No Way Home were amazing, but you definitely felt the "special run in the post-covid era, we should enjoy it while it lasts" vibe.

 

Minions that weekend made me feel like "Hey, maybe we're getting back to normal here", which was a really good feeling.

Edited December 29, 2022 by Verrows

[Verrows]

7 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

I saw I Wanna Dance With Somebody tonight. It’s a good biopic, it’s a shame Sony dropped the ball with marketing. I feel if it was better known that it was out and a crowd pleaser, it would have done much better. Oh well, it will hopefully find an audience on streaming. Sony movies still going to Netflix?

I've seen a lot of them going to Prime Video.

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, AnDr3s said:

why does the canadian number count for domestic while having different ER?

They’re a combined box office market. The disgusting part is, get this:

a movie makes $100M USD in USA

also makes $10M CAD in Canada (~=$7.5M USD)

The amount earned is clearly ~$107.5M USD

but the BO reported is $110M 🤢🤢🤢

Edited December 29, 2022 by Legion in Boots