Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[XXR & Friends]

Gimme 19.75 - 20.25 and lets call it for the night. Feels pretty good in that range. Hopefully the numbers bear out with actuals, then I'll know I'm interpreting it right/close enough. 

 

[Jiffy]

5 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

They’re a combined box office market. The disgusting part is, get this:

a movie makes $100M USD in USA

also makes $10M CAD in Canada (~=$7.5M USD)

The amount earned is clearly ~$107.5M USD

but the BO reported is $110M 🤢🤢🤢

Hmm really I was under the impression CAD figures get converted to USD for total NA gross.

[interiorgatordecorator]

3 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

Gimme 19.75 - 20.25 and lets call it for the night. Feels pretty good in that range. Hopefully the numbers bear out with actuals, then I'll know I'm interpreting it right/close enough. 

 

 

what an annoying range

[Joyous Legion]

3 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

Hmm really I was under the impression CAD figures get converted to USD for total NA gross.

I too naively assumed that they would do the only thing which is possibly justifiable but between info from Rth, Jat, and DAJK it seems crystal clear that they don’t.   
 

Notebly this means that the reported DOM BO is inflated a few % for almost all movies from what the movie actually earned, and the degree of inflation changes with Can/USA gross ratio and ER fluctuations 😬🥴🤮

Edited December 29, 2022 by Legion in Boots

[interiorgatordecorator]

9 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

They’re a combined box office market. The disgusting part is, get this:

a movie makes $100M USD in USA

also makes $10M CAD in Canada (~=$7.5M USD)

The amount earned is clearly ~$107.5M USD

but the BO reported is $110M 🤢🤢🤢

 

criminal 

[Joyous Legion]

XXR gives way too tight ranges given the data but decent midpoints 😛 

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 minute ago, Legion in Boots said:

I too naively assumed that they would do the only thing which is possibly justifiable but between info from Rth, Jat, and DAJK it seems crystal clear that they don’t.   
 

Notebly this means that the reported DOM BO is inflated a few % for almost all movies from what the movie actually earned, and the degree of inflation changes with Can/USA ratio and ER fluctuations 😬🥴🤮

 

10 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

They’re a combined box office market. The disgusting part is, get this:

a movie makes $100M USD in USA

also makes $10M CAD in Canada (~=$7.5M USD)

The amount earned is clearly ~$107.5M USD

but the BO reported is $110M 🤢🤢🤢

 

headlines might be the reason to continue, but why are usa and can jumbled together for BO purposes in the first place?

[Joyous Legion]

1 minute ago, Legion in Boots said:

I too naively assumed that they would do the only thing which is possibly justifiable but between info from Rth, Jat, and DAJK it seems crystal clear that they don’t.   
 

Notebly this means that the reported DOM BO is inflated a few % for almost all movies from what the movie actually earned, and the degree of inflation changes with Can/USA gross ratio and ER fluctuations 😬🥴🤮

Perhaps @Shawn can comment on historical aspects of this situation or industry justifications (aside from “we like fake num, big looks better 💀”)

[LPLC]

Let's go for $21M

[interiorgatordecorator]

Just now, LPLC said:

Let's go for $21M

 

idk

22 sounds better

[Joyous Legion]

Following trend guess it looks like 23

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

XXR gives way too tight ranges given the data but decent midpoints 😛 

 

Feels like a copout to go too large. You can't miss that way and what's the fun if you can't miss. Derby rules! 

 

[Joyous Legion]

1 minute ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 

Feels like a copout to go too large. You can't miss that way and what's the fun if you can't miss. Derby rules! 

 

The small range implies false precision. If you don’t like large ranges just give a point est and it won’t have that vibe  

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, Legion in Boots said:

The small range implies false precision. If you don’t like large ranges just give a point est and it won’t have that vibe  

 

Fine. $20M. 

 

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 

Fine. $23M. 

 

 

God I hope your right. Really going out on a limb there.

[Alex SciChannel]

35 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Fanboys really is an abrasive term. Dont really like when it does. Just tilts the discussion on a me against them type of scenario. Sometimes its warranted but it would be good if it could be expressed less dismissively.

I can agree. However it is not my point. It's mostly about a minority of "enthusiastic individuals" making constant bullish predictions and then being singlehandedly responsible for forum meltdowns when they are not met. Which is just tiresome at this point.

Edited December 29, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[Verrows]

19 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I have just realized the cost of watching all of the big movies in those 2 months. 😅 I even haven't counted May and August. I'll try to see as many as possible. It would be a great time at the cinemas.

Same here. I'm buying up gift cards in preparation. Cineplex offers a bunch of perks when you buy gift cards and they go a long way (free general admissions, PLF upgrades etc.). Also building up points to redeem for the most expensive tickets and only buying basic seats out of pocket. Just gotta get creative with it (people laugh because I have this stuff down to a science 🤣).

[Reddroast]

2 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Same here. I'm buying up gift cards in preparation. Cineplex offers a bunch of perks when you buy gift cards and they go a long way (free general admissions, PLF upgrades etc.). Also building up points to redeem for the most expensive tickets and only buying basic seats out of pocket. Just gotta get creative with it (people laugh because I have this stuff down to a science 🤣).

Do you have a scene card and a cineclub membership

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Following trend guess it looks like 23

Following trend guess it looks like 23.6

[Verrows]

55 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

We really needed some better counter programming over Christmas. Lots and lots of movies moved away scared of A2 and there was room for something pretty big to do ok. I realize Babylon and IWDWS did poorly but they also were not "that well recieved by audiences". Looking at how well the Menu and Violent Night held, you could see something decent could have done well if it was available. I even think the Tom Hanks movie should have opened over Christmas. Would have legged it out ok.  

Agreed 100%. The lack of product contributed far more to the record low box office numbers than movies bombing did. As lucrative as Christmas is, flops do happen at that time as well. Like any other time. What nullifies those is the smorgasbord of offerings that the holiday season is traditionally known for.

 

Also agree on Man Called Otto. It felt like a typical holiday fare. Bizarre that they didn't let that come out on Christmas. Even more bizarre that the limited release isn't even on Christmas. Aren't movies that open platform on new year's weekend considered the "leftovers" that nobody ever really hears about?

Edited December 29, 2022 by Verrows