Weekdays (03-05 Jan, 2023) Thread. | Talk about the New York Giants in here!

[ThomasNicole]

A2 and M3GAN our saviors apparently 

 

Would love 45M for the former and 30M for the later 

[Elessar]

35 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

I guess the question is how much does it outperform Rogue One's weekend pattern - and namely, how big will the Friday jump be (or not be)? That's the big question mark for me. Are the runtime and PLF factors pushing more business to during the week, or is it more likely to jump higher on the weekend because of this?

 

I believe friday jump will be similar to R1's due to the reasons mentioned (PLF inflating midweekdays and some people still having off especially in Canada where A2 is doing better comparably). But internal weekend multiplier might be a bit better due to runtime.

[IronJimbo]

will be nice to get a decent saturday under the belt, been ruined by EVEs so far.

 

[upriser7]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

will be nice to get a decent saturday under the belt, been ruined by EVEs so far.

 

there also won't be any College Football or NFL games this Saturday which should give some boost....this will infact be the first Saturday since start of September without any NFL or College Football games

[oenri]

11 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

I believe friday jump will be similar to R1's due to the reasons mentioned (PLF inflating midweekdays and some people still having off especially in Canada where A2 is doing better comparably). But internal weekend multiplier might be a bit better due to runtime.

Literally no one, not a single person, was seriously saying today would increase until now, this shows the strength of this movie. It could jump much higher, 45-50M weekend. This entire site keeps underestimating james cameron.

Edited January 6, 2023 by oenri

[Eric is Anxious]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

will be nice to get a decent saturday under the belt, been ruined by EVEs so far.

 

[lilmac]

6 hours ago, Dragoncaine said:

Imagine a $7m Thursday with this projected multiplier 😲

I love seeing continued use of the world multiplier with respect to boxoffice predictions. My only claim to fame in life (long story). 😁

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, oenri said:

Literally no one was saying today would increase until now, this shows the strength of this movie. It could jump much higher, 45-50M weekend. This entire site keeps underestimating james cameron.

The problem is that they're getting paralysed by analysis of historic data. They actually have great expertise but it works against them, they've built a box in their head of whats possible and what is not.

 

Don't hate them for it, just enjoy the ride to well over 800m and over 2.5b worldwide

[Elessar]

7 minutes ago, oenri said:

Literally no one was saying today would increase until now, this shows the strength of this movie. It could jump much higher, 45-50M weekend. This entire site keeps underestimating james cameron.

 

Hold your horses, Thursday is still up in the air. And it could reach 45m the way i described it if Thursday is strong.

Edited January 6, 2023 by Elessar

[Dale Cooper]

Incredible if it was to hold with the increase. I am a bit surprised it holds this well, but on the other hand it is doing this in essentially all the big markets as well - just as the first one did. 

Edited January 6, 2023 by Dale Cooper

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, lilmac said:

I love seeing continued use of the world multiplier with respect to boxoffice predictions. My only claim to fame in life (long story). 😁

🤝

it's the box office billie for me

[Elessar]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

The problem is that they're getting paralysed by analysis of historic data. They actually have great expertise but it works against them, they've built a box in their head of whats possible and what is not.

 

Nah, experts were pretty good in predicting last few days based on historical data. We are talking nuances here.

[GOGODanca]

I thought Canada holidays ended after Tuesday?

 

 

[nydedan]

35 minutes ago, Fanboy said:

If you mean 3rd Thursday, A2 has no chance at 1st but has a shot a taking 2nd place from The Incredibles, should definitely land in top 5 and if these early estimates hold up should beat Jumunji to have the biggest first Thursday of January. 

1	Dec 29, 2005	The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, t…	$8,875,130	3,853	$2,303	$191,991,322
2	Jul 5, 2018	Incredibles 2	$7,171,034	4,410	$1,626	$475,361,414
3	Jul 2, 2015	Jurassic World	$6,938,650	3,802	$1,825	$527,300,955
4	Jan 2, 2020	Jumanji: The Next Level	$6,702,524	4,227	$1,586	$209,706,405
5	Jun 16, 2022	Top Gun: Maverick	$6,202,642	4,262	$1,455	$422,167,545
6	Jan 7, 2010	Avatar	$6,094,445	3,461	$1,761	$380,540,297
7	Jan 7, 2016	Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens	$5,972,359	4,134	$1,445	$770,381,043
8	Jul 7, 2016	Finding Dory	$5,857,141	4,305	$1,361	$402,229,243
9	Nov 27, 2003	Elf	$5,700,000	3,202	$1,780	$108,000,000
10	Jul 8, 2010	Toy Story 3	$5,147,053	4,028	$1,278	$318,224,899

thank you for the data. this is exactly what i want. when i said 4th thursday i included the premier thursday. sorry for the confusion.

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Nah, experts were pretty good in predicting last few days based on historical data. We are talking nuances here.

Of course it matters what day it is, holidays, all the jazz.

But where were these experts last weekend? Historic data can only take you so far when venturing into new ground

[LinksterAC]

2 hours ago, oenri said:

People are underestimating this movie again. The weekend can absolutely go 45M+, this can very well surpass Top Gun Domestic.

 

Opening weekend, people said this movie was going to underperform. A few days post weekend, they said it was going to perform like RO and a normal blockbuster. And now, just because of week day numbers, they will underestimate James Cameron and will be proven wrong with the upcoming weekend numbers, rise and repeat.

Picked 45 in the competition thread, but it’s soundly beaten the weekday projections I extrapolated that from. 

[Deep Wang]

9 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Of course it matters what day it is, holidays, all the jazz.

But where were these experts last weekend? Historic data can only take you so far when venturing into new ground

But we don’t know it’s new ground until we’re there on the new ground. 

[Elessar]

15 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Of course it matters what day it is, holidays, all the jazz.

But where were these experts last weekend? Historic data can only take you so far when venturing into new ground

 

Well, A2 isn't really doing anything new to be honest, many films have done the same with that calendar setup, just not any film of this size (small sample size, though).

 

Had it opened to $200m as some pundits expected it would have probably performed much closer to R1 legs wise. I guess Cameron is a better marathon runner than he is a sprinter (duh!).

Edited January 6, 2023 by Elessar

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

But we don’t know it’s new ground until we’re there on the new ground. 

dream a little deep wang

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Elessar said:

 

Well, A2 isn't really doing anything new to be honest, many films have done the same with that calendar setup, just not any film of this size.

 

Had it opened to $200m as some pundits expected it would have probably performed much closer to R1 legs wise. I guess Cameron is a better marathon runner than he is a sprinter.

Sprinters are jacked with metaphorical steriods from previous franchise releases.

The Avatar franchise eventually produce superhuman matharon sprinter, right now we just got the matharon runners you are correct