Weekdays (03-05 Jan, 2023) Thread. | Talk about the New York Giants in here!

[Elessar]

20 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

The orig AVATAR jumped 118% on the same Friday. I'm not sure why people are giving A2 these relatively small Friday jumps from Thursday.

 

Look at how the top 10 movies increased on Jan 6 2017 (same calendar setup as today) and compare that to the top 10 when Avatar had that 118% bump (Jan 8 2010). It's really not that hard to understand. More people are off school / work this week (and in 2017) than they were in 2010.

Edited January 6, 2023 by Elessar

[Alex SciChannel]

MuUusT... know... if Puss... in Boots... was above or below 2M yesterday

[IronJimbo]

14 minutes ago, M37 said:

As I have said repeatedly, in the holiday and post-holiday period, the calendar is the most relevant factor, as the entire top 10 moves largely in unison with only some minor variation between titles

 

 

But you're right, I should totally drop the Passengers comp that spit this out this forecast on Monday

 

 

Just a question, why top 10?

 

Sample size is bigger sure, but you're also adding in small-time movies which are scraping in peanuts. You're muddying the waters

[Jiffy]

I've said anything over $35m is good but would really love if it can break $40m. Things were getting a little wild with the projected Thursday increase, though. At least you can't say the run has not been entertaining to follow thus far.

[Alex SciChannel]

Can someone explain to me why Puss in Boots is losing over 200 theaters this weekend and Avatar 2 is gaining despite Puss having better holds?

 

 

[mikeymichael]

26 minutes ago, lilmac said:

I popularized that term (‘multiplier’) in the early days of online boxoffice prognostications (late 90s). I saw it take it off from there and spread to the Boxoffice Reports forums and then BOM. Borrowed it from the college Econ classes I was taking. Lol

 

brother lilmac, i remember you from the BoxOfficeReport forum days! Loooooong time ago, LOL. 

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Can someone explain to me why Puss in Boots is losing over 200 theaters this weekend and Avatar 2 is gaining despite Puss having better holds?

 

 

Disney expanded A2, there's not really anything deeper to it. Plus holds being better or not, A2 is still pulling over triple puss' numbers, why would any theater want to drop it?

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Can someone explain to me why Puss in Boots is losing over 200 theaters this weekend and Avatar 2 is gaining despite Puss having better holds?

because puss in boots is holding in tea spoon while the way of water is holding whats a bucket (lots of water)

[ThomasNicole]

22 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

I've said anything over $35m is good but would really love if it can break $40m. Things were getting a little wild with the projected Thursday increase, though. At least you can't say the run has not been entertaining to follow thus far.

R1 comparisson would put it right at 40M 

 

I don't think it's going lower than that (or much higher fwiw)

[ThomasNicole]

51 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

 

This might become ironic in 48 hours  

 

You're quietly saying FRI started out kinda soft, am i right? 

[LinksterAC]

20 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Look at how the top 10 movies increased on Jan 6 2017 (same calendar setup as today) and compare that to the top 10 when Avatar had that 118% bump (Jan 8 2010). It's really not that hard to understand. More people are off school / work this week (and in 2017) than they were in 2010.

@charlie Jatinder did some great simple math on the difference having *just* Canada off this week does.

 

Something like this: 

 

If Canada is over-indexing by 100%, then on a 6M weekday for A2, about 25% (1.5M) of the gross comes from Canada instead of 12.5% (0.75M).

 

Even if the USA increases a superb 100%, 4.5M from the USA becomes 9M. Canada, still on holiday, increases very little comparatively and goes from 1.5M to 1.8M. Friday becomes 10.8M total (+80%), instead of 12M (+100%).

 

That's just if Canada is on holiday. But I'm sure some Americans are too.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

You're quietly saying FRI started out kinda soft, am i right? 

 

[M37]

22 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Just a question, why top 10?

 

Sample size is bigger sure, but you're also adding in small-time movies which are scraping in peanuts. You're muddying the waters

Because using the top 10 in aggregate removes a lot the noise of individual film daily performance (and it’s listed on Mojo for easy scraping)

 

And in RO’s year, films 2-10 accounted for 75% of the total for this week, not really peanuts 

 

Also, if you want to know why Avatwo floated while RO dropped off after Christmas? Look no further than the lack of alternatives to pick up the slack (other than BPWF). While the entire Top moves together, RO went from ~42% share pre-Xmas to sub-30% after, while Avatwo held steady at ~65, almost by default. Im still waiting to see how much of that slack it holds onto vs drops off as the holiday period comes to a close 

[JustLurking]

Since XXR's chain went hard on thu and it came out worse, fri starting soft clearly means friday is going to jump 120%. I see no logical fallacy in my reasoning whatsoever.

Edited January 6, 2023 by JustLurking

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, JustLurking said:

Since XXR's chain went hard on thu and it came out worse, fri starting soft clearly means friday is going to jump 120%. I see no logical fallacy in my reasoning whatsoever.

 

Hmm. I can't argue against this so it must be correct. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

18 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Can someone explain to me why Puss in Boots is losing over 200 theaters this weekend and Avatar 2 is gaining despite Puss having better holds?

 

 

 

It's because THE WAY OF WATER is making more money. Also, a 200 theater loss isn't that bad. BABYLON is losing 900+. 😅

[shruth]

the afternoon IMAX show in my area is significantly more packed than it was wed and thurs, almost double the seats filled at the same time. I think we see a big jump today 

[Fanboy]

17 hours ago, Fanboy said:

This has probably already been mentioned somewhere but is there a reason Friday increases for all movies on January 6 2017 were a lot softer than January 6 2012? Using Sherlock Holmes 2 for weekend drops actually seems like a good comparison even though numbers are a lot different, but it jumped 125% on Friday where Rogue One jumped only 56%. 

Didn't get an answer to this and would like to know, something to do with holidays in Canada maybe? Could that also be why numbers initially looked stronger Thurs? 

[LinksterAC]

1 minute ago, Fanboy said:

Didn't get an answer to this and would like to know, something to do with holidays in Canada maybe? Could that also be why numbers initially looked stronger Thurs? 

19 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

@charlie Jatinder did some great simple math on the difference having *just* Canada off this week does.

 

Something like this: 

 

If Canada is over-indexing by 100%, then on a 6M weekday for A2, about 25% (1.5M) of the gross comes from Canada instead of 12.5% (0.75M).

 

Even if the USA increases a superb 100%, 4.5M from the USA becomes 9M. Canada, still on holiday, increases very little comparatively and goes from 1.5M to 1.8M. Friday becomes 10.8M total (+80%), instead of 12M (+100%).

 

That's just if Canada is on holiday. But I'm sure some Americans are too.

 

I hope that helps!