M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

[Brainbug]

Just now, Verrows said:

Do you think studios will be distributing a full, healthy slate of films by the? That's the key I think. We need Warner Bros. to figure their shit out and for Disney to do more with Fox.

 

I think by 2024, the turbulations of the pandemic with all the delays and whatnot will be finally sorted out and the movie slate will be close to pre-pandemic levels. At least thats what i would expect from the studios and i realize betting on the competence of them is quite a risk 😄

[interiorgatordecorator]

36 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

I've done advanced calculations that tell me A2 will make another $223M DOM after this weekend. 

 

 

thanks for keeping your promise (you told me A2 would make over 700 million even after ow projections began to go down and down in the last pre-release week)

Edited January 8, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[M37]

18 minutes ago, cookie said:

Venom caught up by suddenly having ridiculous holds after Halloween Kills with Eternals barely making a dent on it.

That’s in large part because of the calendar, in that there is just more moviegoing past Halloween than before it, even with competition. That’s why studios try to avoid Sept/Oct and pre-President’s Day Jan/Feb 

 

With that said, as business becomes more PLF heavy, spreading out across the year makes more sense than it did in the past, even if the ceiling in those weaker periods is lower 

[interiorgatordecorator]

whats the target for tomorrow? 4 million?

can we dream of 5?

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

whats the target for tomorrow? 4 million?

can we dream of 5?

 

I think a 60-65% drop from today is a good target.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

52 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

What can I say that hasn’t been said. Fantastic weekend for Way of Water. This is an exceptionally strong post-holiday weekend drop. It’s going to play as a strong weekend movie, if that 80% Saturday increase is any indication.

 

Post Holidays Weekend Drops

 

Avatar: -26.6%

Avatar: The Way of Water: -33.2%

Aquaman: -40.5%

Spider-Man: No Way Home: -41.8%

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: -45%

Star Wars: Episode IV - The Rise of Skywalker -52.3%

Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens: -53.1%

Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: -54.8%

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story: -55.5%

 

With this drop, I’m really curious to see how Way of Water legs out from here. Already it has jumped to the top 10 multipliers of all time for $70+ million openers, with a 3.85 multiplier. It will easily glide past a 4 multiplier next week.

 

Best Multipliers Ever for $70+ Million Opening Films (Friday Openers):

 

1. Avatar (2009) — 77.0 million (9.73)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (2022) — 126.7 million (5.67)
3. Finding Nemo (2003) — 70.3 million (4.84)
4. Zootopia (2016) — 75.1 million (4.55)
5. Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00)
6. Inside Out (2015) — 90.4 million (3.94)
7. American Sniper (2015) — 89.3 million (3.92)
8. Aladdin (2019) — 91.5 million (3.89)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) — 134.1 million (3.85)^
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — 248.0 million (3.78)
11. Toy Story 3 (2010) — 110.3 million (3.76)
12. The Incredibles (2004) — 70.5 million (3.71)
13. Despicable Me 3 (2017) — 72.4 million (3.65)
14. Finding Dory (2016) — 135.1 million (3.60)
15. Toy Story 4 (2019) — 120.9 million (3.59)
16. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) — 84.6 million (3.58)
17. The Secret Life of Pets (2016) — 104.4 million (3.53)
18. The Jungle Book (2016) — 103.3 million (3.53)
19. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53)
20. Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone (2001) — 90.3 million (3.52)

 

Next weekend is a long weekend (MLK day), and it looks pretty smooth sailing for several weekends beyond that.

 

The original Avatar dropped 15% into its MLK weekend. Can Way of Water drop 20% or better, looking at a ~$35+ million weekend? If so, this would be another great sign for late legs. Not sure if it can quite achieve that, but it will drop well nonetheless. It needs a 30% drop or better on MLK weekend to have the second best fifth weekend ever (just ahead of the behemoth that is Titanic, which hit exactly $30M on it’s fifth weekend).

 

And with M3gan opening so well, and both Puss in Boots and Wakanda Forever legging nicely, really fun stuff all around!

 

Peace,

Mike

 

Don't forget TITANIC's post holiday drop of 14%. Never forget.

[stuart360]

6 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

whats the target for tomorrow? 4 million?

can we dream of 5?

I'm thinking 5-5.5

[MovieMan89]

14 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Have you posted this before? I just got major deja vu reading this....

I think I’ve mentioned Mario will be huge and that big budget animation on the whole is in a scary place with not being profitable. 

[Legion Again]

17 minutes ago, Verrows said:

The Devil Inside is so entertaining to examine from a box office perspective. 🤣 Just looked at it the other day and it was unbelievable how it cratered. I don't think any weekend dropped under 65%. And that first Sunday drop of -55.9%!! 😲 I was reading about the boos at the New York press screening too. The ending will do that I guess.

And yet for all that, it legged better from its OD than Halloween Ends 

[efialtes76]

2 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

 

I think a 60-65% drop from today is a good target.

For a reference Rogue One dropped a 72%.

[Hiccup23]

5 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

whats the target for tomorrow? 4 million?

can we dream of 5?

  

Based off the Sunday estimate I am guessing $4.5M-$4.6M. I am predicting it will make ~$18M during the week which would land it at ~535M by the weekend. 

[CaptNathanBrittles]

13 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Do you think studios will be distributing a full, healthy slate of films by the? That's the key I think. We need Warner Bros. to figure their shit out and for Disney to do more with Fox.

 

Beginning February there's a big movie releasing virtually every week and summer looks too crowded as it is.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Legion in Boots said:

And yet for all that, it legged better from its OD than Halloween Ends 

 

Anyone who has seen Halloween Ends shoudnt be surprised why it died so fast.

[M37]

1 minute ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

 

I think a 60-65% drop from today is a good target.

Is that factoring in the CFB Championship game? Should drag down Mon numbers across the board 

[efialtes76]

10 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

Don't forget TITANIC's post holiday drop of 14%. Never forget.

"Best Multipliers Ever for $70+ Million Opening Films"

Edited January 8, 2023 by efialtes76

[IronJimbo]

12 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

 

I think a 60-65% drop from today is a good target.

what do we think true today is, 13.0?

[friedAmobo]

2 hours ago, Cheddar Please said:

Honestly I can definitely see OW deflation in the Top 20 Domestic being a thing going forwards. High openers like MCU films are struggling to hit high numbers outside of OW due to franchise fatigue, while films like TGM, A2, and even to an extent NWH only managed to crack the top 10 off the backs of good WOM and legs. In addition, the theatrical environment nowadays seems to be favoring a few muted but well-received blockbusters to leg it out throughout their frames. Overall, I predict (or at least I hope) to see more 4x+ multi blockbusters crack the top 10 this decade.

 

I don't think I agree with this. High-opener MCU films are still making about the same or more as comparisons from a few years ago in nominal terms  - Wakanda Forever ($445M) over Captain Marvel ($426M), Multiverse of Madness ($411M) over Iron Man 3 and Civil War (both $408M), and Love and Thunder ($343M) over Ragnarok ($315M). The only difference is their OWs are bigger, thus leading to shorter legs. I'm inclined to think that this is more because the MCU has reached a critical mass of frontloading where their dedicated fanbase is now more pressured than ever before to go out and see the new movie on opening weekend to avoid spoilers and as part of the hype. We can also see this trend in the increasing previews - each of those comparisons also saw a hearty jump in nominal previews as well. In essence, the MCU is becoming more like modern Star Wars - larger previews and larger openings with shorter legs as the fanbase drives more of the total gross instead of the general audience.

 

NWH didn't need good legs or particularly good WoM to crack the top 10 domestic (at that time, the #10 was Incredibles 2 with $608.5M). Off of its massive $260M opening, a 2.35x multiplier would've been enough to topple Incredibles 2 to enter the top 10, which would have been atrocious legs for a December opening - even for a big December opener. It would've needed BvS legs to fail to reach the top 10 off of that opening.

 

TGM and A2 seem to be more like anomalies. Like Avatar and Titanic, TGM and A2 are both four-quadrant crowdpleasers that have low barriers to entry (meaning they are more accessible to the general audience) and smaller or nonexistent fanbases (at least in the modern sense) that would drive high previews and/or high openings. These kinds of crowdpleasers are naturally going to leg it out better than huge fan-driven openings. And even then, TGM and A2 are still markedly different from Avatar and Titanic in the top 20 domestic chart because they were still "big" openers - they just weren't massive ones. Both of those movies are still in the top 50 biggest opening weekends, while Avatar and Titanic are well outside the top 100 and top 200, respectively.

 

It's also worth noting that the box office has been operating in a reduced supply environment since the onset of the pandemic. NWH had an unprecedentedly clear January, February, and even March slate to leg out for a long time. TGM had relatively little in the way of summer box office competition compared to years past. Avatar 2 is also benefiting from a weak calendar slate that gives it time to leg out. When there aren't that many options at the theater to choose from, the ones that are there will naturally benefit from being one of a few selections. While we just had a good weekend this weekend, today's (1/8) projected box office is around $27.5M for the top 10 movies. That number was $34.5M on Sunday, January 8, 2017. Today is even more top-heavy too - Avatar 2 is looking to make around $13M today (about 47% of the top 10's gross), while Rogue One's $6.42M was just under 19% of that day's top 10, and it was in heavy competition with Sing and Hidden Figures to be the highest grosser that day. This is a box office environment that benefits the top grossers because there's relatively little depth in the competition, so top grossers get more time to leg out and eke out more in final gross over weeks and months. I don't think we'll have that same environment going forward, especially since 2023 already looks to be packed and will likely see some blockbusters getting delayed again to avoid the fierce competition.

[MovieMan89]

48 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

I've done advanced calculations that tell me A2 will make another $223M DOM after this weekend. 

 

Let’s get an extra 10m in there to get it above A1 first run please. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 hour ago, MikeQ said:

What can I say that hasn’t been said. Fantastic weekend for Way of Water. This is an exceptionally strong post-holiday weekend drop. It’s going to play as a strong weekend movie, if that 80% Saturday increase is any indication.

 

Post Holidays Weekend Drops

 

Avatar: -26.6%

Avatar: The Way of Water: -33.2%

Aquaman: -40.5%

Spider-Man: No Way Home: -41.8%

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: -45%

Star Wars: Episode IV - The Rise of Skywalker -52.3%

Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens: -53.1%

Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: -54.8%

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story: -55.5%

 

With this drop, I’m really curious to see how Way of Water legs out from here. Already it has jumped to the top 10 multipliers of all time for $70+ million openers, with a 3.85 multiplier. It will easily glide past a 4 multiplier next week.

 

Best Multipliers Ever for $70+ Million Opening Films (Friday Openers):

 

1. Avatar (2009) — 77.0 million (9.73)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (2022) — 126.7 million (5.67)
3. Finding Nemo (2003) — 70.3 million (4.84)
4. Zootopia (2016) — 75.1 million (4.55)
5. Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00)
6. Inside Out (2015) — 90.4 million (3.94)
7. American Sniper (2015) — 89.3 million (3.92)
8. Aladdin (2019) — 91.5 million (3.89)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) — 134.1 million (3.85)^
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — 248.0 million (3.78)
11. Toy Story 3 (2010) — 110.3 million (3.76)
12. The Incredibles (2004) — 70.5 million (3.71)
13. Despicable Me 3 (2017) — 72.4 million (3.65)
14. Finding Dory (2016) — 135.1 million (3.60)
15. Toy Story 4 (2019) — 120.9 million (3.59)
16. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) — 84.6 million (3.58)
17. The Secret Life of Pets (2016) — 104.4 million (3.53)
18. The Jungle Book (2016) — 103.3 million (3.53)
19. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53)
20. Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone (2001) — 90.3 million (3.52)

 

Next weekend is a long weekend (MLK day), and it looks pretty smooth sailing for several weekends beyond that.

 

The original Avatar dropped 15% into its MLK weekend. Can Way of Water drop 20% or better, looking at a ~$35+ million weekend? If so, this would be another great sign for late legs. Not sure if it can quite achieve that, but it will drop well nonetheless. It needs a 30% drop or better on MLK weekend to have the second best fifth weekend ever (just ahead of the behemoth that is Titanic, which hit exactly $30M on it’s fifth weekend).

 

And with M3gan opening so well, and both Puss in Boots and Wakanda Forever legging nicely, really fun stuff all around!

 

Peace,

Mike

 

do any of the top 3 change if we drag the floor down to 50 (from 70)?

[Brainbug]

Gonna be honest if i must accept that Avatar 2 will outgross Jurassic World, then i dont want it to be a close race but instead a homerun and a clear 700M+ total for Avatar. Nothing would annoy me more than seeing Avatar 2 ending with like 670M. That would infuriate me.

 

Good thing in that case that 700M+ looks more likely than ever after this weekend.