M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

What's the reasonable probability of it going over 700m at this point, and what would be a reasonable range to project?

 

Reasonable? No Way Home made $136.5M more off of a $32.6M 4th WE. Same ratio gets A2 about $175.7M if this weekend hits $42M. That would be a ~$689M finish. 

 

I'd say there's a 25-35% chance it hits $700M. 

 

 

[Eric is Quiet]

Full Deadline top 10. I like these kinds of weekends where every cup is a winner and there's good holds for almost everything (yeah I know some of the totals suck, but who cares?). I'm shocked The Menu only fell 34% despite being free on HBO Max. That typically means the end of a movie's run. What happened there?

 

1.) Avatar 2 (Dis) 4,340 theaters Fri $11.4M (-54%) 3-day $38M-$43M (-36% to 44%), Total $514.7M (on the high end)/Wk 4

2.) M3GAN (Uni) 3,509 theaters, Fri $11.7M, 3-day $27.5M/Wk 1

3.) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Uni/Ill) 3,919 (-202) theaters, Fri $3.3M (-49%), 3-day $12.4M (-26%), Total $87M/Wk 3

4.) A Man Called Otto (Sony) 637 (+633) theaters, Fri $1.5M 3-day $3.68M/
total $3.76M/Wk 2

5.) Wakanda Forever (Dis) 2,255 (-55) theaters, Fri $968K (-50%) 3-day $3M (-41%), Total $445M/Wk 9

6.) I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Sony) 3,184 (-441) theaters Fri $700K (-51%) 3-day $2.38M (-39%) Total $19.6M/Wk 3

7.) Babylon (Par) 2,381 (-970) theaters Fri $430K (-54%), 3-day $1.4M (-46%), Total $13.5M/Wk 3

8.) The Whale (A24) 850 (+270) theaters, Fri $423K (-15%) 3-day $1.38M (-1%) Total $8.4M/Wk 5

9.) The Menu (Sea) 800 (-60) theaters, Fri $211K (-45%), 3-day $724k (-34%)/Total $37.7M/Wk 8

10.) Violent Night (Uni) 1,981 (-582) theaters, Fri $210K (-75%) 3-day $670K (-68%) Total $49.3M/Wk 6

[M37]

Now that we have our (mostly) first non-holiday data point, can really start to focus on legs. Here is how some notable recent December openings preformed in the new year, using their 4th full week (post-New Years) as the baseline

Keep in mind when looking at this graph that I've excluded a lot of the lower grossing and/or non-leggy titles, so the distribution is skewed high. Also using log scale to show exponential decline

I've penciled in a ~$42M weekend/~$56M week, nearly identical to TFA

 

Seems unlikely, with a nearly clear runway/little competition, that we'll see a RO/Aquaman type of drop-off (~1.6x), but will note that the same could have been said for BPWF after Thanksgiving, and that didn't go so well until Christmas ... but even those trajectories probably top out over $600M. I wouldn't use the L-word just yet, but its >90% likely

 

Matching TFA from here (~2.0x) would still be an above average performance for the new year, and lands around $640M. Probably a decent starting point, and adjusting from there

 

Titanic run (nearly 9x !!!) isn't happening , just shown for scale, and even an OG Avatar (~4.5x) or Showman (nearly 5x, which I just added) performance isn't likely. So for those who want to dream of $700M and chasing down TGM, you're hoping for a JWTJ (~3.2x) or NWH (~3.1x) path, which does put 7+ in play [JTNL was 2.2x, but also cut short by the pandemic]

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, 3RIC said:

I'm shocked The Menu only fell 34% despite being free on HBO Max. That typically means the end of a movie's run. What happened there?

 

We can dream, Eric. Maybe more and more people decided that for some movies at least, theyre not fully satiesfied with streaming it and miss watching movies like The Menu in theaters?

 

Cue an optimistic melody.

 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, 3RIC said:

Full Deadline top 10. I like these kinds of weekends where every cup is a winner and there's good holds for almost everything (yeah I know some of the totals suck, but who cares?). I'm shocked The Menu only fell 34% despite being free on HBO Max. That typically means the end of a movie's run. What happened there?

Streaming (for free via streaming service) usually only impacts movies geared mostly towards younger demographics (not the case for The Menu given its R rating).

[stuart360]

23 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

What's the reasonable probability of it going over 700m at this point, and what would be a reasonable range to project?

Its going to need around 185mil off a 40-45mil weekend.

Tough but not impossible.

[DAJK]

Some nice milestones that are looking (at least semi) likely. 

 

Avatar crossing 650M will be sweet. Last time that happened twice in the same year was 2018, and before that... I'm not sure? 700M is a possibility too, which would be the first time ever I'm sure. 

 

Violent Night is going to cross 50M. Really nice sleeper-hit run for that film. Glad to see it!

 

Menu probably won't reach 40M, but the fact it came close is pretty awesome, especially in this environment of moviegoing.

 

Puss in Boots will probably reach 120M or so, which after its opening weekend is a great recovery!

 

Whale will cross 10M which... bleh if this was 10 years ago. But in this environment, that's a win. Go Brendan!

 

Otto will probably have a decent run once it expands into wide release. Hoping for a 50M total for that film, would be nice to see older audiences finally coming back to theatres for "traditional" older fare, not just the once-in-a-generation events like Maverick.

[Joyous Legion]

45 minutes ago, M37 said:

Forget the opening weekend, it legged out on par with than Avatar when using the 2nd or 3rd week as the baseline, and from a much lower grossing level where retaining volume is more difficult 

Uhhhhh… Opposite Day says what now

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Some nice milestones that are looking (at least semi) likely. 

 

Avatar crossing 650M will be sweet. Last time that happened twice in the same year was 2018, and before that... I'm not sure? 700M is a possibility too, which would be the first time ever I'm sure.

 

2015 was the first time two movies (JW and TFA) crossed 650M DOM - unadjusted ofc. Though 2015 and 2018 were special in the sense that all of those movies crossed 650M in the same calendar year (TFA crossed it on the 31st December if i remember correctly), while Avatar 2 obviously didnt do that.

[M37]

15 minutes ago, 3RIC said:

I'm shocked The Menu only fell 34% despite being free on HBO Max. That typically means the end of a movie's run. What happened there?

Could have been a fall back option for people trying to see M3G and not finding good seats 

[M37]

2 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Uhhhhh… Opposite Day says what now

Take a look at the chart I just posted above. Data don’t lie 

[Joyous Legion]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Could have been a fall back option for people trying to see M3G and not finding good seats 

It’s landing right where I had it based on wed daily and tc hold so I don’t think M3G is much of a factor. Same reason it held well pre avatar imo — classic good wom

[IronJimbo]

18 minutes ago, M37 said:

Now that we have our (mostly) first non-holiday data point, can really start to focus on legs. Here is how some notable recent December openings preformed in the new year, using their 4th full week (post-New Years) as the baseline

Keep in mind when looking at this graph that I've excluded a lot of the lower grossing and/or non-leggy titles, so the distribution is skewed high. Also using log scale to show exponential decline

I've penciled in a ~$42M weekend/~$56M week, nearly identical to TFA

 

Seems unlikely, with a nearly clear runway/little competition, that we'll see a RO/Aquaman type of drop-off (~1.6x), but will note that the same could have been said for BPWF after Thanksgiving, and that didn't go so well until Christmas ... but even those trajectories probably top out over $600M. I wouldn't use the L-word just yet, but its >90% likely

 

Matching TFA from here (~2.0x) would still be an above average performance for the new year, and lands around $640M. Probably a decent starting point, and adjusting from there

 

Titanic run (nearly 9x !!!) isn't happening , just shown for scale, and even an OG Avatar (~4.5x) or Showman (nearly 5x, which I just added) performance isn't likely. So for those who want to dream of $700M and chasing down TGM, you're hoping for a JWTJ (~3.2x) or NWH (~3.1x) path, which does put 7+ in play [JTNL was 2.2x, but also cut short by the pandemic]

 

Ok guys I looked at this graph and I understand what it means, I'm in the top 5% percentile of BOT users now. Prove me wrong

[Joyous Legion]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Take a look at the chart I just posted above. Data don’t lie 

The chart where movies that are bigger before wk4 fall harder and ones that were smaller hold better? Indeed, data don’t lie 😛 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Ok guys I looked at this graph and I understand what it means, I'm in the top 5% percentile of BOT users now. Prove me wrong

 

Oh come on this is uncalled for and you should know that.

[YM!]

13 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Puss in Boots will probably reach 120M or so, which after its opening weekend is a great recovery!

I’m thinking 140m, maybe 150m.

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Oh come on this is uncalled for and you should know that.

It's a good graph! If you haven't seen one in this style before it's going to take you a moment to get your head around it so I made a joke 🤷‍♂️

 

[Tokugennumataka]

Just realised next Friday is the 13th. In combination with MLK day, good wom and no competition, could we see a 'smile'-ish hold for M3G next week?

[hw64]

17 minutes ago, M37 said:

Take a look at the chart I just posted above. Data don’t lie 

 

Yeah I'm also incredibly dubious of the claim that it's harder to retain volume from a lower level of gross than it is is from a far higher one. Conventional wisdom says it's the complete opposite, and even without doing any number crunching there are far more examples of recent movies with lower grosses having huge multipliers/legs than there are examples of $100m openers with the same kinds of multipliers.

 

You could make the argument that a lower gross makes it a bit harder to spread word of mouth, but that completely pales in comparison to how naturally more difficult it is to retain gross from an $100m+ starting point than it is from, say, a $10m starting point — like it's not even close. Look at what Puss is doing right with relative ease, for example — that's completely unreplicable for an $100m+ opener.

 

I'm interested to know where you're coming from here, but to me that assertion is categorically and demonstrably false.

Edited January 7, 2023 by hw64

[JustLurking]

I do agree that it's easier to hold better on a higher volume as long as you aren't straight up going into blockbuster-tier where you are burning too much demand too quick. If you go too low you tend to just not have enough people spreading WOM for it to matter and/or are too vulnerable to losing screens and theaters for it to matter often times.

 

Like, say, a 30M opener vs a 5M opener rather than 150 vs 30.

Edited January 7, 2023 by JustLurking