M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 minute ago, MikeQ said:

 

Confidently predicting that a film will outdo "X" film because it has matched or somewhat exceeded "X" film's current weekend and therefore will outdo it from this point in the run onwards, is not possible when:

 

1. "X" film had exceptional late legs of its own.

 

Check out TGM's late legs - they are really sexy: 

 

 

That's 20% drops or better for 8 weekends in a row.

 

2. And it opened in the summer, benefiting from strong summer weekdays (with kids out of school and many folks off work).

 

Way of Water will, naturally, lose ground during the weekdays (starting tomorrow, in fact). That's not a slight against Way of Water - but a natural occurrence due to the different times of year and advantages of opening during the summer. There is a reason why the list of biggest box office months ever are predominated by June and July:

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/top_grossing_month/?by_occasion=all&ref_=bo_csm_ac

 

Studios love to lap up those summer weekdays.

 

Therefore, it's not a foregone conclusion that Way of Water can match TGM's domestic gross. It certainly can, and its prospects are looking better with the exceptionally strong hold this weekend. But for the reasons above, its too simplistic to say, "it has matched/exceeded this weekend and therefore it will go on to exceed its total gross".

 

Not trying to be a Grumpy Gus - just put things in perspective.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

when in TGM's run did summer vacation start?

[MikeQ]

2 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

when in TGM's run did summer vacation start?

 

From what I remember, it happens in waves as schools get off for summer at different times. Films definitely experience the advantages of summer weekdays in June, progressively so until July, which is when Canadian schools get out and films experience that peak summer advantage. 

 

Peace,

Mike

[corngrower87]

7 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

 

Confidently predicting that a film will outdo "X" film because it has matched or somewhat exceeded "X" film's current weekend and therefore will outdo it from this point in the run onwards, is not possible when:

 

1. "X" film had exceptional late legs of its own.

 

Check out TGM's late legs - they are really sexy: 

 

 

That's 20% drops or better for 8 weekends in a row.

 

2. And it opened in the summer, benefiting from strong summer weekdays (with kids out of school and many folks off work).

 

Way of Water will, naturally, lose ground during the weekdays (starting tomorrow, in fact). That's not a slight against Way of Water - but a natural occurrence due to the different times of year and advantages of opening during the summer. There is a reason why the list of biggest box office months ever are predominated by June and July:

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/top_grossing_month/?by_occasion=all&ref_=bo_csm_ac

 

Studios love to lap up those summer weekdays.

 

Therefore, it's not a foregone conclusion that Way of Water can match TGM's domestic gross. It certainly can, and its prospects are looking better with the exceptionally strong hold this weekend. But for the reasons above, its too simplistic to say, "it has matched/exceeded this weekend and therefore it will go on to exceed its total gross".

 

Not trying to be a Grumpy Gus - just put things in perspective.

 

Peace,

Mike

Plus, let’s not forget the Fourth of July provided TGM with a solid boost. We’re not to that point in A2s release life to know where it will be in comparison at that point either. 
 

 

[keysersoze123]

14 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

 

From what I remember, it happens in waves as schools get off for summer at different times. Films definitely experience the advantages of summer weekdays in June, progressively so until July, which is when Canadian schools get out and films experience that peak summer advantage. 

 

Peace,

Mike

Dont forget Market has way fewer releases compared to summer. TGM did face Minions and Thor beyond its 4th weekend. Here I am not convinced we will see another 30m opener before Ant-Man and that is 5 weeks away. 

[corngrower87]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dont forget Market has way fewer releases compared to summer. TGM did face Minions and Thor beyond its 4th weekend. Here I am not convinced we will see another 30m opener before Ant-Man and that is 5 weeks away. 

Don’t forget the potentially epic upcoming Cameron vs Cameron matchup when Titanic gets its wide rerelease just ahead of Valentine’s Day…

 

 

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, corngrower87 said:

Don’t forget the potentially epic upcoming Cameron vs Cameron matchup when Titanic gets its wide rerelease just ahead of Valentine’s Day…

 

 

Would not matter that much. It could be a catalyst to stoke dormant JC fans. Otherwise its not a factor like a 100m opener. 

[MikeQ]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dont forget Market has way fewer releases compared to summer. TGM did face Minions and Thor beyond its 4th weekend. Here I am not convinced we will see another 30m opener before Ant-Man and that is 5 weeks away. 

 

Absolutely. A film accrues its own set of advantages by playing through January, a much quieter month, despite the more muted weekdays - especially if it is able to capitalize on great WOM. I was simply trying to put TGM's run into perspective, since the question was posed about how the "math" works. Each film is working with a different set of advantages/disadvantages.

 

Taken together, it may be close and an interesting comparison to follow.

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited January 9, 2023 by MikeQ

[corngrower87]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Would not matter that much. It could be a catalyst to stoke dormant JC fans. Otherwise its not a factor like a 100m opener. 

You do realize I’m was joking right…?

[Cmasterclay]

 

#ottosweep

[eXtacy]

Higher chance of passing maverick then not at this point, incredible given the soft start. Even avatars original run not ruled out.

Edited January 9, 2023 by eXtacy

[kayumanggi]

 

[Cheddar Please]

2 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

I think the forum alienates new users sometimes. I have seen some of them emoji-reacting to valid concerns. They just lurk but don't post for whatever reason. I hope they become more active.

I will say, as much as people here love to shit on r/boxoffice, the pipeline is real. On one hand I like that the attention we get there helps to keep our userbase healthy through converts, but on the other hand, given the quality of discussion there, I'm also glad that we have such a eclectic community here as to keep the faint of heart out lol

- A r/boxoffice convert

[Etsch]

2 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

I will say, as much as people here love to shit on r/boxoffice, the pipeline is real. On one hand I like that the attention we get there helps to keep our userbase healthy through converts, but on the other hand, given the quality of discussion there, I'm also glad that we have such a eclectic community here as to keep the faint of heart out lol

- A r/boxoffice convert

I used to browse r/boxoffice but since it has grown so large basically everyone there hates theatres now. Its so strange, you'd never think a subreddit called boxoffice would celebrate when a movie flops just because its not a blockbuster or mcu movie.

[Cheddar Please]

1 minute ago, Etsch said:

I used to browse r/boxoffice but since it has grown so large basically everyone there hates theatres now. Its so strange, you'd never think a subreddit called boxoffice would celebrate when a movie flops just because its not a blockbuster or mcu movie.

Why do you think I came here? This place reminds me of r/boxoffice in its heyday during the late 2010s, but I would've never discovered it without the constant early number posts lol

Edited January 9, 2023 by Cheddar Please

[upriser7]

19 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

not to mention, M3GAN didn't have many PLFs and had to compete with Avatar2

[StreamBO]

16 minutes ago, Etsch said:

I used to browse r/boxoffice but since it has grown so large basically everyone there hates theatres now. Its so strange, you'd never think a subreddit called boxoffice would celebrate when a movie flops just because its not a blockbuster or mcu movie.

You mean they hate streaming and Marvel, have you gone to that reddit recently, there were people wanting Black Panther 2 to flop. And now a lot of them hate Marvel movies somehow, i like Avatar and Avatar 2, but they were being too tribal with Avatar, now they hate Marvel and are wanting Avatar franchise to destroy Marvel wich is ridiculous, a r/boxoffice should want both to succeed. Plus the DC hate. 

 

Plus the streaming Hate is ridiculous, to massive proportions, they hate Warner Brothers more so since HBO MAX. They even wanted WB to loose the Monsterverse to Sony, something that wont happen because both Monsterverse and Dune are WB joint venture. Just like Monterverse never went to Universal while Pacific Rim did because WB is on a franchise joint venture with Monsterverse and Dune not just distribution like the Pacific Rim series. 

Edited January 9, 2023 by StreamBO

[Joyous Legion]

It’s a large subreddit so you can find a large group of people who hate anything. Even opposite things. Mostly what turns me off about it recently is just the lack of people capable of basic math.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Sampath Kumar said:

Can we include Baahubali 2 Performance from India also

yeah. BAAHUBALI 2 did break opening weekend record by HUGE margin and then had great legs. Can def include BB2 in Nizam.

[Joyous Legion]

11 hours ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

Where are all the "A2 will have normal blockbuster legs" people now?

Right here? 5x is in the normal range for xmas blockbusters, it just succeeded in escaping low end of normal

[Joyous Legion]

11 hours ago, JustLurking said:

Please note that I want absolutely NO PART in this A2 vs EG debate, but I don't think this is really true, there are some pretty big overseas market that never recovered post-covid, i.e. SK is down 50% in admits from 2019, and even a bunch of european markets while having a revival of sorts with A2 have been feeling dead after covid.

 

That said, would be nice to just discuss the numbers without a "which was more impressive" debate for once lol.

First paragraph doesn’t really refute Schu’s point though. I personally think that SK is substantially below normal in terms of what same movie would do vs pre-pandemic (with big variation over movie) but citing market sum doesn’t do anything to prove that angle over the “problem is less moves/less appealing movies” angle. If a market was equally healthy in terms of what a movie would gross vs 2019, and movies released are only worth 50% of movies released in 2019, then market will be 50% despite being 100% recovered in potential.