MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited January 14, 2023 by kayumanggi

[M37]

4 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

It shouldnt be far off.

7

13-14

10

9

39-40mil.

 

If Friday ends up 7.5-8 with actuals, it can easily do over 40mil.

Its not going to change that much with actuals, and if I had to bet, Disney rounded up to that $7M figure

[Cheddar Please]

 

6 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

It shouldnt be far off.

7

13-14

10

9

39-40mil.

 

If Friday ends up 7.5-8 with actuals, it can easily do over 40mil.

I find it highly unlikely that Friday actuals would rise another half a million, given last night was pointing towards 6.8-7.2m. 13m Saturday seems reasonable enough, if slightly optimistic given last weekend's numbers, but 14 seems like a stretch at this point. I'd say so far signs are pointing to 37-38m 4-day

[DAJK]

17 minutes ago, CJohn said:

This is all very disappointing. Avatar should be doing 40M+ 4 day, not 35M.

 

Plane and Otto are huge bombs.

 

Bless Queen M3GAN I guess. Gonna end up with 90M or so.

You must be just a bundle of joy  

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Its not going to change that much with actuals, and if I had to bet, Disney rounded up to that $7M figure

Still Friday was weakish last weekend compared to Saturday, and you would think Sunday should hold better than last weekend due to the holiday Monday.

40mil 4 day is very much in play imo.

Edited January 14, 2023 by stuart360

[kayumanggi]

$7.0M AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER

$4.9M M3GAN

$4.1M A MAN CALLED OTTO

$3.5M PLANE

$3.0M PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH

$1.4M HOUSE PARTY

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

I wonder if Titanic can hit 700 with the re-release. 

 

[stuart360]

Just now, XXR the Conqueror said:

I wonder if Titanic can hit 700 with the re-release. 

 

Is it like a 1-2 week limited run (like the AVATAR re-release), or is ti it a full 3000+ release?.

[Eric Prime]

I think this was not shared already

 

PLANE (2023)

 

Nothing for House Party weirdly enough. I guess that says something?

[Dragoncaine]

9 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Still Friday was weakish last weekend compared to Saturday, and you would think Sunday should hold better than last weekend due to the holiday Monday.

40mil 4 day is very much in play imo.

We can't underestimate the impact of the playoffs this weekend imo

[M37]

10 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Still Friday was weakish last weekend compared to Saturday, and you would think Sunday should hold better than last weekend due to the holiday Monday.

40mil 4 day is very much in play imo.

It needs a Jumanji or Sing 2 like weekend pattern from that Friday (5.77x and 5.70x respectively), which I don't think is a reasonable expectation. For comparison, NWH was a 4.75x last year, but that's probably too low, though only the two family movies (Sing 2 and GA) were better than +68% on MLK/NFL Playoff Saturday

 

Avatwo is a better Sat/Sun movie than a typical blockbuster, but not family movie good.  Mid to high $30s far more likely

Edited January 14, 2023 by M37
grammar

[kayumanggi]

I still think these are still good January numbers.

 

same weekend last year (3day/4day)

 

$30.02M / $33.86M SCREAM

$20.01M / $24.65M SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME

$07.98M / $10.31M SING II

$02.28M / $02.73M THE 355

$02.22M / $02.66M THE KING'S MAN

$01.57M / $01.97M AMERICAN UNDERDOG

$01.57M / $01.82M BELLE

[kayumanggi]

1 minute ago, Eric the Plane said:

I think this was not shared already

 

PLANE (2023)

 

Nothing for House Party weirdly enough. I guess that says something?

 

That's a good score for this kind of movie, right?

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, Dragoncaine said:

We can't underestimate the impact of the playoffs this weekend imo

how many weeks of playoffs do we have going forward?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

 

[kayumanggi]

One of the very few adult-skewing movies that are actually doing better than expected.

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

It needs a Jumanji or Sing 2 like weekend pattern from that Friday (5.77x and 5.70x respectively), which I don't think is a reasonable expectation. For comparison, NWH was a 4.75x last year, but that's probably too low, though only the two family movies (Sing 2 and GA) were better than +68% on MLK/NFL Playoff Saturday

 

Avatwo is a better Sat/Sun movie than a typical blockbuster, but not family movie good.  Mid to high $30s far more likely

Well hopefully its 39.999999 then

[Borobudur]

Is BP2 coming on to Disney+? The +75% friday bump seem soft without major theater cut. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

4 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

how many weeks of playoffs do we have going forward?

 

Wildcard Round this weekend. Divisional Round next weekend. Division Championships the weekend after that then the Super Bowl is February 12th and that will destroy Sunday numbers.

[kayumanggi]

1 minute ago, Borobudur said:

Is BP2 coming on to Disney+? The +75% friday bump seem soft without major theater cut. 

 

February 1st