Weekdays Thread (23rd to 26th of January 2023)

[Mr Roark]

It obviously won’t follow NWH’s trajectory once dealing with a (give or take) $100M opener and Titanic stealing 3D screenings. The target is topping IW and that would still be nuts for a $134M opener.

[M37]

6 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

TNL would have gone past 3 without covid tbf, and Puss looks set for over 3x (thinking 140 cume on sun for bit over 13M 7day, would need to add 41 or ~3.1x so 24% drops).   
 

But yeah the 2021 comps are about to get seriously messed up by Canadia 

TNL would have gotten closer to 3x, but it made like $3 mil the last week of Feb, so there wasn’t going to be too much more added w/o pandemic 

 

and yeah, PiB will almost certainly be the third to cross 3x, maybe by a lot 

[Joyous Legion]

37 minutes ago, M37 said:

TNL would have gotten closer to 3x, but it made like $3 mil the last week of Feb, so there wasn’t going to be too much more added w/o pandemic 

 

and yeah, PiB will almost certainly be the third to cross 3x, maybe by a lot 

TNL needed 319.5 total or adding 4.9M after that 3M week. Just 1.7x the week. Stone cold as I believe they say  

[M37]

14 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

TNL needed 319.5 total or adding 4.9M after that 3M week. Just 1.7x the week. Stone cold as I believe they say  

 

Ok, fair enough, didn't run the numbers to that specificity. That one had a bit of a weird run in that it didn't find those good legs until late January, though Bad Boys & NFL playoffs probably had a lot to do with that

[upriser7]

9 hours ago, M37 said:

December opening films grossing more than 3x their MLK week gross for the rest of their runs, 2009 - 2020:

• Greatest Showman = 3.54x
• Avatar = 3.51x

The next highest in my data set is Jumanji TNL at 2.82x (nearly 25% lower), just to show how much an outlier Showman & Avatar are ... or at least were before last year

• Sing 2 = 3.45x
• NWH = 3.38x

And that's the issue: 2021 holidays into 2022 Jan and Feb were such anomaly, with COVID/Omicron concerns and even closures over the holidays into January delaying demand until later, plus an extremely weak release calendar. Showman and Avatar both dropped just ~15% over the MLK weekend, indicating the were already holding monsters, while Sing 2 and NWH were -31% and -38% respectively, only later playing catch-up and posting a lot of sub-20% starting 2 weeks later. There is absolutely no reason to expect Avatwo to follow that kind of nearly flat line trajectory for no particular reason starting in week 7, and the -38.7% drop this past weekend suggests it may not even get to 2x MLK week, much less 3x

 

Best to just remove any December 2021 movie from comp lists, because they won't be useful for mapping out future January/February late legs

Thanks for your perspective..I didn't realize how much of an outlier 2021 was in this aspect. I used NWH as a reference as it's the only major December release in pandemic era.

[Joyous Legion]

Yes it’s a hassle that the only post-pandemic comparison year right now is thrown out of whack by omicron/Canada reopening timing. This year should be a fine guide for movies next year.

[Eric is Quiet]

 

[todos]

Big rises for some movies so far. Wonder if Avatar and Puss will see some kind of increase 🧐 
 

+83%

[todos]

Tue

Missing +55%
Plane +21%

[M37]

The Tue trend is basically matching the drop on Sat vs prior week 

 

So expecting like $1.9M (+20%) for Avatwo and $1.1M (+40%) for Puss. Very curious if the latter can actually hit that 

[Grebacio]

 

[Joyous Legion]

Cursory glance at the data proves Puss will increase this weekend

Dec 23, 2022	2	$12,429,515		4,099	$3,032	$18,532,370	1
Dec 30, 2022	2	$16,815,340	+35%	4,121	$4,080	$61,222,670	2
Jan 6, 2023	3	$13,541,330	-19%	3,919	$3,455	$88,127,165	3
Jan 13, 2023	3	$14,466,850	+7%	3,687	$3,924	$107,436,825	4
Jan 20, 2023	2	$11,807,355	-18%	3,611	$3,270	$126,767,825	5

[Sophia Jane]

2m for Avatar 2

[Joyous Legion]

6 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Cursory glance at the data proves Puss will increase this weekend

Dec 23, 2022	2	$12,429,515		4,099	$3,032	$18,532,370	1
Dec 30, 2022	2	$16,815,340	+35%	4,121	$4,080	$61,222,670	2
Jan 6, 2023	3	$13,541,330	-19%	3,919	$3,455	$88,127,165	3
Jan 13, 2023	3	$14,466,850	+7%	3,687	$3,924	$107,436,825	4
Jan 20, 2023	2	$11,807,355	-18%	3,611	$3,270	$126,767,825	5

Increases are 1/5 the size of previous increase, so +1.4%

 

Next weekend drop 17%

 

Basic numerology

[M37]

43 minutes ago, Eric Slay said:

 

ScreenX is kinda a PITA to program and have run smoothly tbh, not user friendly and so prone to mistakes and complications. The side projectors are an add-on, a completely separate system, very basic and only do whatever the main projector and playlist tells them to do. And no way to manually adjust/correct mid-show; if the side screens miss or lose their mark, have to restart, and a programming error like this can only be corrected when show is no longer playing

[efialtes76]

16 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

2m for Avatar 2

-28% from last week.

[druv10]

 

[GOGODanca]

OS hold is really good

[upriser7]

These OS holds on Monday, Tuesday are really good despite dropoff in screenings in China. Spring festival must be helping in South East Asia

[wildphantom]

21 hours ago, tupek said:

Nobody cares about that bad movie,

It was good.