February 3rd to 5th, 2023 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Cabin 14.2, Brady 12.5, Avatar 10.8, Puss 7.95, BTS 6.3

[BadOlCatSylvester]

https://variety.com/2023/film/news/box-office-knock-at-the-cabin-previews-1235511145/

Quote

Director M. Night Shyamalan’s newest twisty thriller “Knock at the Cabin” is barging into its opening weekend with $1.45 million in previews at the domestic box office.

The previews came from from 3,000 domestic theaters, and the film will expand to 3,643 locations on Friday. Shyamalan’s most recent movie, 2021’s “Old,” opened slightly higher with $1.5 million in previews.

“Knock at the Cabin” is predicted to open between $15 million and $20 million, which may be just enough to dethrone James Cameron’s blockbuster “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which has sat atop box office charts for seven straight weeks. Dating back to its release in mid December, “The Way of Water” has been a box office juggernaut and recently cracked the top 10 highest-grossing domestic releases of all time, but Shyamalan’s newest film may knock it out of first place for once.

 

[DAJK]

Alright, so this is doing Old numbers. Gotcha.

[GOGODanca]

20m would require a 13.8x multiplier which is not happening

[filmlover]

Should be about $14-16M for the weekend, which is enough to unseat Avatar (depending on 80 for Brady's numbers). Not a breakout, but for a movie with such a bleak premise, acceptable enough.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

Edited February 3, 2023 by Issac Newton

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Eric Prime]

For what it's worth, and I know it's a pretty...aged comp, but Old did 11.24x a 1.5M preview in the heart of the summer. So this could still outpace Old, which I feel would still be quite good, especially when the hook and premise isn't as appealing or easy to sell as Old's or Split's was. Plus M. Night's movies are cheap and likely do well on digital. Sucks that it didn't go as high as we wanted, but not the end of the world.

[Cooper Legion]

Absolute RIP, @M37 the prophet

[Eric Prime]

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

Wait...Tue-Wed-Thu? Where the heck are the Saturday numbers? Did I track all these stupid previews for nothing?

[Cooper Legion]

Oh Brady also doing the limbo, nvm on that prophet business. 

[Issac Newton]

1 minute ago, Eric Crowe said:

Wait...Tue-Wed-Thu? Where the heck are the Saturday numbers? Did I track all these stupid previews for nothing?

 

 

[M37]

Knock a bit lower than I had expected based on tracking, but Brady decently below the ~$1M Thur had penciled in

 

Not sure either gets to $15M from there, and could be a close race for #1 on the weekend

[Hiccup23]

I am thinking Knock will do around 14.5M-15M this weekend based off that preview. Wish it would have hit 20M+ but seemed a little to optimistic. 

[filmlover]

We can merge the threads.

 

 

[Cooper Legion]

Avatar gunning for True FSS crown 🤔

[GOGODanca]

A 2 month long thread is a first

[Eric Prime]

7 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

MY LIFE ISN'T A WASTE HOORAY

[CJohn]

That is weaker than expected for both.

[filmlover]

Given how old its audience almost certainly is, I imagine shows past a certain hour for 80 for Brady are pretty much going to be dead. Should hit double digits still, which is more than I expected from it a few weeks ago.

Edited February 3, 2023 by filmlover

[M37]

14 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Oh Brady also doing the limbo, nvm on that prophet business. 

Me all week:

Really getting a Downton Abbey vibe here from Brady, let's not go too high on these forecasts

 

Me putting in my Derby numbers: