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BadOlCatSylvester

February 3rd to 5th, 2023 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Cabin 14.2, Brady 12.5, Avatar 10.8, Puss 7.95, BTS 6.3

By BadOlCatSylvester, in Numbers and Data

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

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These Fri numbers are low: did people just check out/shift gears now that the calendar turned, or maybe weather played a role in keeping people home yesterday?

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Eric the IF Global Phenomenon

Eric the IF

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1 minute ago, M37 said:

These Fri numbers are low: did people just check out/shift gears now that the calendar turned, or maybe weather played a role in keeping people home yesterday?

It's the weather. The wind chills here are absurd, with so many noreaster states feeling like single digits or sub-zero. New England was practically Antarctica yesterday, which is really bad for the audience intended for 80 for Brady. And sadly, today's not looking much better.

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BadOlCatSylvester Box Office Gold

BadOlCatSylvester

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In the stressed out post-pandemic world, there evidently isn't much room for filmmakers like M. Night. People want fun, hope and optimism, which is what the biggest hits of last year provided for the most part. The Batman is a pretty big standout, but it was propped up by the loyal superhero fanatics.

 

One interesting thing to note is that the new Deadline update seems to imply 80 for Brady was originally intended for Paramount+ much like Smile before it:

Quote

Another thing to applaud here on this $28M movie: Paramount Pictures Boss Brian Robbins pulled the movie away from streaming and turned it into a must-see for its demographic with the help of worldwide marketing and distribution czar Marc Weinstock and domestic distribution chief Chris Aronson.

https://deadline.com/2023/02/box-office-knock-at-the-cabin-80-for-brady-1235248828/

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upriser7 Sleeper Hit

upriser7

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I don't think PIB2's Friday number is that unexpected. PIB2 grew 197% this Friday (vs Thursday)...that's pretty much in the range of the growth we saw last 3 weeks....PIB2's Friday growth over the last 3 weeks was +185%, +187%, +205%. PIB2 had bigger drops in the weekdays this week than what we saw over the last 4 weeks and looks like those bigger drops have now carried over to the weekend too.

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AJG Global Phenomenon

AJG

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1 minute ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

In the stressed out post-pandemic world, there evidently isn't much room for filmmakers like M. Night.

 

He's a loser.

 

Send him straight to Netflix with the other bums.

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

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Bit of an odd weekend where both openers seem to be doing perfectly fine all things considered (Knock at the Cabin's opening is decent for a movie with such a grim premise while 80 for Brady is going to beat the low expectations from just a few weeks ago), yet neither truly broke out like it seemed like they potentially would have at some point. Still, better than what we've been seeing for non-tentpoles on average over the past two years. 

 

Looks like holdovers are going to see respectable drops across the board, again.

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

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6 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

I don't think PIB2's Friday number is that unexpected. PIB2 grew 197% this Friday (vs Thursday)...that's pretty much in the range of the growth we saw last 3 weeks....PIB2's Friday growth over the last 3 weeks was +185%, +187%, +205%. PIB2 had bigger drops in the weekdays this week than what we saw over the last 4 weeks and looks like those bigger drops have now carried over to the weekend too.

Difficult to directly compare because the last year is the only true analog but comes with lots of asterisks, but typically that late Jan/early Feb NFL off-week sees bigger Friday jumps too 

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Krissykins Global Phenomenon

Krissykins

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41 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

People want fun, hope and optimism, which is what the biggest hits of last year provided for the most part.

Not really for the horror audience though. I don’t think that’s a good excuse for Knock at the Cabin’s underperformance. Big studio horror has been doing well for most of the last year. 

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John Marston Global Phenomenon

John Marston

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48 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

In the stressed out post-pandemic world, there evidently isn't much room for filmmakers like M. Night. People want fun, hope and optimism, which is what the biggest hits of last year provided for the most part. The Batman is a pretty big standout, but it was propped up by the loyal superhero fanatics.

 

One interesting thing to note is that the new Deadline update seems to imply 80 for Brady was originally intended for Paramount+ much like Smile before it:

https://deadline.com/2023/02/box-office-knock-at-the-cabin-80-for-brady-1235248828/

 

 

but everyone and their mother plopped in front of their TVs/computers/phones to watch Dahmer so..

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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22 hours ago, Blankments said:

@Eric Crowe @WrathOfHan THE FIRST TRAILER REPORT OF ONLY 2023 MOVIES:

 

18x:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania: The Conjuring 2 Round 2, Wrath of Man, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0, The Menu, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Round 2, Strange World, Bones and All, Violent Night, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D, The Inspection, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D, M3GAN, Skinamarink, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4, The Whale

 

11x:

 

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves: Top Gun: Maverick Round 3 IMAX, Orphan: First Kill, Spider-Man: No Way Home Round 3 Dolby, Confess, Fletch, Avatar Round 2 Dolby, Avatar Round 3 3D, Black Adam Dolby, Smile, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby, Strange World

 

10x:

 

Oppenheimer: Nope Dolby, The Black Phone, Nope Round 2 IMAX, Bullet Train Dolby, Jaws Round 2 IMAX, Avatar Round 4 IMAX 3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, The Pale Blue Eye, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4

Knock at the Cabin: Don’t Worry Darling Dolby, Halloween Kills, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Fabelmans, Ticket to Paradise, The Fabelmans Round 2, The Night Owl, M3GAN, Skinamarink, The Whale

 

8x:

 

The Super Mario Bros. Movie: Black Adam Dolby, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby, Strange World, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4

Shazam! Fury of the Gods: DC League of Super-Pets, Don’t Worry Darling Dolby, Black Adam Dolby, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4

Creed III: Black Adam Dolby, Till, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Round 2, Bones and All, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3Dl, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4, Women Talking

 

7x:

 

The Little Mermaid: Avatar Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar Round 3 3D, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby, Strange World, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4

80 for Brady: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Round 2, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, A Man Called Otto, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody, The Whale, Women Talking

 

6x:

 

M3GAN: Halloween Ends, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Round 2, Bones and All, Ticket to Paradise, The Night Owl

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: Sing 2 Dolby, Belle Round 2, Morbius Dolby, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Dolby, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

 

5x:

 

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One: Top Gun: Maverick Dolby, Jurassic World Dominion IMAX, Top Gun: Maverick Round 2, Elvis Dolby, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D

Plane: Black Adam Dolby, The Banshees of Inisherin, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Night Owl, M3GAN

Missing: Violent Night, The Night Owl, M3GAN, A Man Called Otto, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3: The Conjuring 2 Round 2, Wrath of Man, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4

 

4x:

 

The Jesus Revolution: The Fabelmans, Ticket to Paradise, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, A Man Called Otto

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

We need some more trailers in the rotation lol

 

9x:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Menu, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio, The Whale, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby 3D, Babylon, Avatar: The Way of Water IMAX 3D, M3GAN)

 

7x:

John Wick: Chapter 4 (Bullet Train, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Menu, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Whale, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby 3D, Avatar: The Way of Water IMAX 3D)

 

5x:

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (Avatar IMAX 3D, Black Adam, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio, Babylon)

Oppenheimer (Nope, Bullet Train, Avatar IMAX 3D, Avatar: The Way of Water IMAX 3D, M3GAN)

 

4x:

Creed III (Black Adam, The Banshees of Inisherin, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Avatar: The Way of Water IMAX 3D)

The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Black Adam, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby 3D, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish)

 

3x:

Chevalier (The Menu, The Whale, Infinity Pool)

Infinity Pool (The Whale, Babylon, M3GAN)

Shazam! Fury of the Gods (Black Adam, Avatar: The Way of Water IMAX 3D, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish)

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Avatar: The Way of Water IMAX 3D, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish)

 

2x:

65 (Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby 3D, Babylon)

Beau Is Afraid (M3GAN, Infinity Pool)

Cocaine Bear (M3GAN, Infinity Pool)

Elemental (Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby 3D, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish)

Evil Dead Rise (M3GAN, Infinity Pool)

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby 3D, Avatar: The Way of Water IMAX 3D)

The Little Mermaid (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish)

Scream VI (Babylon, M3GAN)

 

1x:

Barbie (Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby 3D)

A Good Person (Babylon)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Avatar: The Way of Water IMAX 3D)

Renfield (M3GAN)

Titanic 3D (Avatar: The Way of Water IMAX 3D)

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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57 minutes ago, Eric Crowe said:

It's the weather. The wind chills here are absurd, with so many noreaster states feeling like single digits or sub-zero. New England was practically Antarctica yesterday, which is really bad for the audience intended for 80 for Brady. And sadly, today's not looking much better.

Yup, I was going to see Knock at the Cabin last night but it was already a subzero wind chill at 6PM and I wasn't going to risk subway delays when the movie would've been out at 10PM nor my own warmth and comfort. 80 for Brady should have a bonkers hold on Sunday, but everything else seems like it's holding fine today.

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

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33 minutes ago, Flopped said:

Brady did nothing at night meaning it will do well in midweeks. 

The theater I'm seeing Knock at the Cabin at in a few hours (can we get a thread for it up in RTM @Eric Crowe thanks) has sold literally nothing for 80 for Brady after 8:00 tonight. I'm actually excited to see the audience breakdown.

 

10 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

but everyone and their mother plopped in front of their TVs/computers/phones to watch Dahmer so..

Never underestimate people's desire for these "true crime" programs lol. Even Waco was a hit on Netflix in 2020 after being ignored when it originally aired on the Paramount Network two years earlier.

Edited by filmlover
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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

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8 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

but everyone and their mother plopped in front of their TVs/computers/phones to watch Dahmer so..

Different type of content: by design viewers supposed to hate the protagonist, not empathize with their struggle like some of the “downer” content that has often struggled to gain traction 

 

Fwiw I’m not sure I buy that’s a large part of Cabin’s struggle, but it certainly didn’t help as compared to a more clearly fantasy/escapism of something like M3G or Smile 

 

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