How many films will surpass $700M at the box office worldwide this year?

[Sophie]

Little Mermaid: if I'm understanding this correctly, Deadline is expecting only 33% of its global opening to come from overseas? (Hard to tell whether the 180M global opening includes the 20M that they have projected for Memorial day). Either way, it seems best case scenario they expect a 56/44 split for Mermaid, which puts its chances of beating "Full River Red" in limbo. 

 

Flash: BOP's predictions dropped 15% this week, to an average of 285M domestic. But with a standard 42/58 split, that would still make it a coin toss to whether it would beat "Full River Red"  

 

Transformers: BOP predictions still clocking in at only half as string as Deadline predictions. If the deadline predictions of a ~69M debut hold, and the film gets a 25/75 split, then it should be in contention to surpass "Full River Red". 

 

Spider-Verse: BOP projections have moved upward by 11%. If it meets these expectations and can manage a dom/os split of about 45/55, then it can challenge "Full River Red". 

 

Tldr: none of these films are currently looking like safe bets to approach 700M

[Sophie]

So despite a big overperformance this weekend, a 58/42 dom/os split will probably only get Mermaid to maybe around $550M. Looks like we struck out there. 

 

But my bigger worry is that I hear some people calling into question Fast X ability to cross 700M. 

 

What do yall think about that?

 

 

[Austin]

13 minutes ago, Sophie said:

So despite a big overperformance this weekend, a 58/42 dom/os split will probably only get Mermaid to maybe around $550M. Looks like we struck out there. 

 

But my bigger worry is that I hear some people calling into question Fast X ability to cross 700M. 

 

What do yall think about that?

 

 

I think $200M more for Fast X is doable, but might be rough in the face of competition. If I had to put money on it, I think it crosses $700M.

[cannastop]

On 5/25/2023 at 1:49 AM, Issac Newton said:

How Do You Live will make $450M+ ~ $550M+ in Asia itself. If Disney handle Outside Asia Release like Spirited Away - $300M+ is on card // $750M-$850M WW since it's Miyazaki Last Film

Disney's not going to be involved with this movie....

[Sophie]

Deadline is calling for a majorly US-loaded performance from Spider-Verse. So it looks like that one is out too. 

 

It was always a long shot. 

[JustLurking]

On 5/29/2023 at 4:09 AM, Sophie said:

So despite a big overperformance this weekend, a 58/42 dom/os split will probably only get Mermaid to maybe around $550M. Looks like we struck out there. 

 

But my bigger worry is that I hear some people calling into question Fast X ability to cross 700M. 

 

What do yall think about that?

 

 

Yeah based on what I've seen in the tracking thread I don't really think Flash is going 700+. Maybe international numbers go bigger though IIRC LATAM also is seeing some hesitancy and that would need to go big for flash. We'll see what happens after reviews I guess.

Edited June 1, 2023 by JustLurking

[XXR vs XXR]

23 hours ago, Sophie said:

Deadline is calling for a majorly US-loaded performance from Spider-Verse. So it looks like that one is out too. 

 

It was always a long shot. 

 

I wouldn't be so sure about that. 

[XXR vs XXR]

On 5/25/2023 at 12:49 AM, Issac Newton said:

How Do You Live will make $450M+ ~ $550M+ in Asia itself. If Disney handle Outside Asia Release like Spirited Away - $300M+ is on card // $750M-$850M WW since it's Miyazaki Last Film

 

Meg 2 is US-China Co-production so $500M-$600M itself coming from China. So another $100M from USA &Remaining market isn't hard

 

Idk anything about "How Do You Live" and it's box office possibilities but my gut says $500M max. Meg 2 won't do $300M in China, much less $500-600M. 

 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Meg 1 made like $587M if I recall correctly. This second film feels like we’re in for a notable drop so that’s out.

 

as for which films will, we have Mario and Guardians. Spider-Verse and Mission: Impossible I’m confident will do it, and I’m also feeling very good about Dune. 
 

There’s also a path I see for Aquaman, Marvels and Hunger Games but that depends on their quality.

 

So for now I’m going for 5 confident with a possibility of up to 8 depending on how they do with audiences.

[Sophie]

6 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Meg 1 made like $587M if I recall correctly. This second film feels like we’re in for a notable drop so that’s out.

 

as for which films will, we have Mario and Guardians. Spider-Verse and Mission: Impossible I’m confident will do it, and I’m also feeling very good about Dune. 
 

There’s also a path I see for Aquaman, Marvels and Hunger Games but that depends on their quality.

 

So for now I’m going for 5 confident with a possibility of up to 8 depending on how they do with audiences.

 

Meg made $530M 

 

Is Fast X out of the conversation?? 

[Valonqar]

8 hours ago, XXR 2099 said:

 

I wouldn't be so sure about that. 

 

Yeah it's Deadline calling something 3 min after it came out. They can't predict for shit.

[Willowra]

SMB ✅ 

GOTG3 ✅  

Fast X ❓

SMATSV ✅ 

The Flash ❓ 

Indiana Jones ❓ 

MI7 ✅ 

The Hunger Games ❓ 

Aquaman 2 ✅

 

Edited June 2, 2023 by Willowra

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

2 hours ago, Sophie said:

 

Meg made $530M 

 

Is Fast X out of the conversation?? 

Aw I forgot Fast X. Yeah put that in too.

[Sophie]

30 minutes ago, Willowra said:

SMB ✅ 

GOTG3 ✅ 

SMATSV ✅ 

The Flash ❓ 

Indiana Jones ❓ 

MI7 ✅ 

The Hunger Games ❓ 

Aquaman 2 ✅

 

Forgetting Fast X as well? Or you don't think it'll pass? 

[Willowra]

8 minutes ago, Sophie said:

Forgetting Fast X as well? Or you don't think it'll pass? 

Oh I forgot it, it may pass, so ❓

[Sophie]

Despite poor reviews, BOP is still guessing 300M dom for Indie. 

 

What kind of dom/os split do you think he could have?

 

Back in 2008, he had a 40/60 split, and nearly 500M overseas. If he can repeat that split, he should be able to get to around $750M

[Serpico Jones]

Nothing outside of Mario, Guardians 3 and Dead Reckoning will make it to $700m worldwide.

[Austin]

2 minutes ago, Serpico Jones said:

Nothing outside of Mario, Guardians 3 and Dead Reckoning will make it to $700m worldwide.

ATSV has a solid shot. Fast X should crawl there.

Edited June 3, 2023 by Austin

[Willowra]

1 hour ago, Serpico Jones said:

Nothing outside of Mario, Guardians 3 and Dead Reckoning will make it to $700m worldwide.

Aquaman 2 will do because of Christmas release, it won't go below 300M dom and 400M OS

[Sophie]

Yeah, Spider-Verse's dom/os split is not looking great. Does anyone know what's going on with that?