April 14th-16th 2023 Weekend Thread | $900K previews for Renfield

[DisposedData]

Well assuming Sat is 38m and it drops 35% tomorrow then we have an 85m weekend on our hands. Shawn's projection for this weekend is looking mighty accurate!

[superduperm]

Just now, DisposedData said:

Well assuming Sat is 38m and it drops 35% tomorrow then we have an 85m weekend on our hands. Shawn's projection for this weekend is looking mighty accurate!

Ugh I’m greedy. Really want it to get $86M so it can have the animated record.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Count Eric said:

Hi. I didn’t say Indy 5 would make as much, just that it seemed silly to say Indy 4 will hurt the movie for a variety of reasons and used TFA as a comparison in that regard. I obviously don’t think it will make as much as that. Please don’t put words into my mouth.

Why would TFA be a good comp in that regard either though? We’re talking about a movie multiple gens waited decades for. How can we remotely argue the same for Indy 5?

 

My whole big concern with that movie is it feels like the franchise relevance died with CS 15 years ago. SW relevance certainly never died off with the prequels, that’s for sure. 

[grey ghost]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

TPM has more high points though. AOTC is the easier one to sit through, despite almost no highlights imo.  

 

I can't stand Jar Jar and lil Anakin.

 

The ending with Darth Maul is boss but not worth the previous 2 hours imo.

[cooldude97]

43 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Honestly all I truly care about with Mario at this point is if it can dethrone TLK remake WW. I can’t stand that travesty getting brought up as highest grossing “animated” film ever, and me wanting to scream from the rooftop that if that’s animation then so are the Avatar movies, and A1 is the highest grossing “animated” movie. 

as much as i would love that to happen, it's probably going to be until Mario 3 or a Smash bros Movie until we can get to those numbers 

[KP1025]

50 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Overseas we have to wait and see how far it goes. At least I can see MI7 gross more than Mario. But I dont see any other movie beating Mario OS as well. 

 

I don't see how MI7 gets close OS unless it gets a huge boost post-TGM. Fallout grossed $571 million OS but with $181 million from China. I don't see a huge China performance this time around given climate there, so other markets will have to see big increases to pick up the slack. 

 

This is what Charlie said last week in the Mario OS thread. The high end of that range seems more likely to me, which means MI7 will need a very strong China gross to compete.

 

Quote

Current markets should hit $550M, possibly $600M+.

Then there is Korea & Japan, that can be $50-150M. Totally no idea.

Middle East can be $10-25M.

 

$610-750M final OS

 

[Jiffy]

Would rather I2 keep the domestic animated record, although would prefer this take WW over TLK (probably one can't happen without the other, and doubt the latter has a chance anyway).

[Cheddar Please]

6 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

Would rather I2 keep the domestic animated record, although would prefer this take WW over TLK (probably one can't happen without the other, and doubt the latter has a chance anyway).

TBF I would categorize both I2 and SMB in a similar category: Animated film with years of anticipation and hype behind it as well as slick marketing, leading up to a movie with rather flawed plot and characters that nonetheless delivers on fan expectations and is an all-around fun time.

Edited April 16, 2023 by Cheddar Please

[Jiffy]

5 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

TBF I would categorize both I2 and SMB in a similar category: Animated film with years of anticipation and hype behind it as well as slick marketing, leading up to a movie with rather flawed plot and characters that nonetheless delivers on fan expectations and is an all-around fun time.

That is true enough although I have more love for The Incredibles (2004) than any other CG animated film so I come from that angle.

[KP1025]

16 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

as much as i would love that to happen, it's probably going to be until Mario 3 or a Smash bros Movie until we can get to those numbers 

 

I feel like a Mario sequel would inevitably drop in gross like most sequels to massive highly-anticipated films. The novelty of seeing the world of Mario animated on the big screen has been played, and I don't see other hooks having the same draw across all audiences.

[nerves]

DL updated its prediction to $87 million 

[Issac Newton]

Just now, nerves said:

DL updated its prediction to $87 million 

$39.5M Saturday 

[Issac Newton]

Deadline Forecast

 

1) Super Mario Bros Movie (Ill/Uni) 4,371 (+28) theaters, Fri $22.6M Sat $39.5M Sun $24.9M 3-day $87M (-41%), Total $347.8M/Wk 2

 

2.) Pope’s Exorcist (Sony)3,178 Fri $3.465M Sat $3.1M Sun $1.9M 3-day $8.5M/Wk 1

 

3.) Renfield (Uni) 3,375 theaters Fri $3.1M Sat $2.75M Sun $1.85M 3-day $7.7M/Wk 1

 

4.) John Wick: Chapter 4 (LG) 3,033 (-574) theaters, Fri $2.1M, Sat $3.5M Sun $2.08M 3-day $7.67 (-47%), Total $159.8M/Wk 4

 

5.) Air (Amazon) 3,507 theaters,Fri $2.15M Sat $3.3M Sun $2.15M 3-day $7.6M, Total $33.1M/Wk 2

 

6.) Dungeons & Dragons (Par/eOne) 3,324 (-532) theaters, Fri $1.94M, Sat $3.3M Sun $2.1M 3-day $7.4M (-47%), Total $74.1M/Wk 3

 

7.) Suzume (Sony)2,170 theaters Fri $2.15M Sat $1.6M Sun $1.1M 3-day $4.8M/Wk 1

 

8.) Mamma Mafia (BST)2,002 theaters Fri $860K Sat $900K Sun $540K 3-day $2.3M/ Wk 1

 

9.) Scream VI (Par) 1,288 theaters (-998), Fri $430K Sat $640K Sun $350K 3-day $1.42M (-59%), Total $106.7M/Wk 6

 

10.) Nefarious (Soli Deo Gloria) 933 theaters Fri $495K Sat $475K Sun $290K 3-day $1.26M/Wk 1

 

[Dragoncaine]

17 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Deadline Forecast

 

1) Super Mario Bros Movie (Ill/Uni) 4,371 (+28) theaters, Fri $22.6M Sat $39.5M Sun $24.9M 3-day $87M (-41%), Total $347.8M/Wk 2

 

2.) Pope’s Exorcist (Sony)3,178 Fri $3.465M Sat $3.1M Sun $1.9M 3-day $8.5M/Wk 1

 

3.) Renfield (Uni) 3,375 theaters Fri $3.1M Sat $2.75M Sun $1.85M 3-day $7.7M/Wk 1

 

4.) John Wick: Chapter 4 (LG) 3,033 (-574) theaters, Fri $2.1M, Sat $3.5M Sun $2.08M 3-day $7.67 (-47%), Total $159.8M/Wk 4

 

5.) Air (Amazon) 3,507 theaters,Fri $2.15M Sat $3.3M Sun $2.15M 3-day $7.6M, Total $33.1M/Wk 2

 

6.) Dungeons & Dragons (Par/eOne) 3,324 (-532) theaters, Fri $1.94M, Sat $3.3M Sun $2.1M 3-day $7.4M (-47%), Total $74.1M/Wk 3

 

7.) Suzume (Sony)2,170 theaters Fri $2.15M Sat $1.6M Sun $1.1M 3-day $4.8M/Wk 1

 

8.) Mamma Mafia (BST)2,002 theaters Fri $860K Sat $900K Sun $540K 3-day $2.3M/ Wk 1

 

9.) Scream VI (Par) 1,288 theaters (-998), Fri $430K Sat $640K Sun $350K 3-day $1.42M (-59%), Total $106.7M/Wk 6

 

10.) Nefarious (Soli Deo Gloria) 933 theaters Fri $495K Sat $475K Sun $290K 3-day $1.26M/Wk 1

 

Good GOD Mario. And what an awful opening for Renfield!

[DisposedData]

That Sunday Drop by Deadline is too steep imo. This is making 88.5m at the very least imo. TGM's second weekend is not safe.

[screambaby]

1 hour ago, Count Eric said:

 

Iraq vs Kuwait was a bigger battle

[superduperm]

39.5 would be a 31% Saturday-to-Saturday drop.

 

Will be very interesting to see what Universal projects tomorrow morning. I could see a drop of 28% or a drop of 39% and not be shocked either way.

 

Either way, animated 2nd weekend record should be locked.

[screambaby]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Also, I saw Indy 5 being compared to TFA in box office terms? Really?!? I would certainly hope it doesn’t need to be outlined why that’s a terrible analogy/comp that doesn’t work at all. 

It won't make more then TFA but it's gonna kill blade runner

 Probsbly both of them combined

[Fanboy]

Super Mario is actually performing very similar to Ice Age: The Meltdown's post-easter weekend on a much larger scale. Ice Age jumped 130% on Friday and then 75% on Saturday. If Sunday follows suit it should drop around 33-34 percent for a weekend between 88-89M

[WorkingonaName]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am not questioning its potential for sure. I think its taking out Incredibles 2 at this point. There is absolutely no competition for it until Guardians and I feel it will do ok even post that. Mario is basically pulling in a Maverick at this point. No other movie will be in its ball park this year for sure. Its winning domestic and WW. Overseas we have to wait and see how far it goes. At least I can see MI7 gross more than Mario. But I dont see any other movie beating Mario OS as well. 

Unfathomably common Mario W