Weekend Thread | May 12 - 14 | Weekend Actuals | 62.01M GOTG III | 12.61M MARIO | 6.68M BOOK CLUB: THE NEXT CHAPTER

[Mulder]

53 minutes ago, Austin said:

You don't think MI7 can exceed the franchise's apparent ceiling this year with Tom Cruise hot off TGM and China finally returning to Hollywood movies? The movie also has basically all of July and August to run with not much direct competition until Meg 2 (INT). The one issue is Oppenheimer and PLF's.

It's not impossible and never say never (I certainly wouldn't've expected Top Gun Maverick to explode the way it did for example) but I feel like once you start hitting 7 without prior signs of insane growth the chance goes down. To clarify, I meant domestic but even worldwide MI6 did 790. I could see it grow to like 800-900 worldwide and stay kind of flat in the US, maybe grow a bit more to 250 and that still wouldn't surpass GoTG Vol 3 and potentially TLM & ATSV. We'll see though, I could end up looking dumb and it does win, I just don't feel it right now. 

[Bordlove]

What would be a good 2nd Monday?

[MovieMan89]

GotG will most certainly not win the summer lol. Even IF the absolute best of the best case scenario happened and it somehow managed 350 or so, that would be an absurdly low summer  #1 with how inflation has been. Even a decade ago we were all underwhelmed when GotG1 somehow won the summer with only $340 or so. There are way too many movies that have 400+ potential if they deliver, at least one of them surely will. 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

GotG will most certainly not win the summer lol. Even IF the absolute best of the best case scenario happened and it somehow managed 350 or so, that would be an absurdly low summer  #1 with how inflation has been. Even a decade ago we were all underwhelmed when GotG1 somehow won the summer with only $340 or so. There are way too many movies that have 400+ potential if they deliver, at least one of them surely will. 

Yeah man just like how Zelda had serious potential to depress the box office this weekend. There's a reason I listed multiple contenders but as of now nothing's 'guaranteed' to make over 400. Could something do it? Sure. Hell Flash or MI7 could do it despite me thinking they're more like 200-300 (For MI7 and honestly that at best for Flash) but I think ruling out the possibility of GoTG maybe doing it when there's not a super clear guaranteed winner this summer is silly. I feel like you'd be better off being more humble.

[Joyous Legion]

17 minutes ago, Bordlove said:

What would be a good 2nd Monday?

5.2

[Ledmonkey96]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

GotG will most certainly not win the summer lol. Even IF the absolute best of the best case scenario happened and it somehow managed 350 or so, that would be an absurdly low summer  #1 with how inflation has been. Even a decade ago we were all underwhelmed when GotG1 somehow won the summer with only $340 or so. There are way too many movies that have 400+ potential if they deliver, at least one of them surely will. 

I mean we can already rule out Fast 10 and Transformers.
I wouldn't bet on Into the Spiderverse or Elemental
I absolutely wouldn't bet on DC
Barbie seems like the meme vote ala Mobius, Oppenheimer is in the same boat if less memey
The Little Mermaid has potential but i don't see it personally
Indiana Jones has decent odds but it's budget is rather insane so i doubt Disney would be happy even if it did win if it doesn't win by a LOT
Mission Impossible would need to break WAY ahead of any other of those movies which isn't impossible after TGM but still seems iffy.

Nothing else really jumps out at me so far.

 

[Joyous Legion]

Expecting Indy TLM gotg top 3 for now but spiderverse can maybe crack it if quality holds up

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

I mean we can already rule out Fast 10 and Transformers.
I wouldn't bet on Into the Spiderverse or Elemental
I absolutely wouldn't bet on DC
Barbie seems like the meme vote ala Mobius, Oppenheimer is in the same boat if less memey
The Little Mermaid has potential but i don't see it personally
Indiana Jones has decent odds but it's budget is rather insane so i doubt Disney would be happy even if it did win if it doesn't win by a LOT
Mission Impossible would need to break WAY ahead of any other of those movies which isn't impossible after TGM but still seems iffy.

Nothing else really jumps out at me so far.

 

Little Mermaid's tracking (As of now, it could go down as time goes on but just speaking in the now) is great and if it has good WOM could put it over 400. Little Mermaid and Spider-Verse (Which is also having good tracking as of now) are the biggest two alternative contenders. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[screambaby]

Don't know what the debate is....MEG 2 is making 15 billion dollars. Domestic.

[Mulder]

For this summer I'd put it like this-

 

Genuine contenders-GoTG Vol 3 (Known quantity by now), Little Mermaid, Spider-Verse 2

The big outlier contender-Indy 5
Could break-out potentially-Flash, MI7

Unlikely but who knows-Elemental, Oppenheimer, Barbie

No chance-Everything else

[ThomasNicole]

22 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

GotG will most certainly not win the summer lol. Even IF the absolute best of the best case scenario happened and it somehow managed 350 or so, that would be an absurdly low summer  #1 with how inflation has been. Even a decade ago we were all underwhelmed when GotG1 somehow won the summer with only $340 or so. There are way too many movies that have 400+ potential if they deliver, at least one of them surely will. 

350M is not a best case scenario at all lol

 

Bad scenario would be 325M or so which would need some pretty bad drops going forward to make only 110M after a 63M second weekend 

 

340-350M is the meh scenario, pretty standard tbh considering the WOM 

 

370-380M is the actual best case scenario, and yeah that can be enough to win summer because while there lots of big movies that will be very succesful, none of them really screams a phenomenon 

[ThomasNicole]

12 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Don't know what the debate is....MEG 2 is making 15 billion dollars. Domestic.

I´m being completely honest here ... i think Meg 2 has a legit shot at +200M DOM if the movie is the inconsequential camp crowdpleaser the trailer is selling 

[screambaby]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I´m being completely honest here ... i think Meg 2 has a legit shot at +200M DOM if the movie is the inconsequential camp crowdpleaser the trailer is selling 

Oh that would be good with me. I'm one of like 3 people who liked the first one.

Edit: it made 543 million world wide? Why did I think it was a massive flop

Edited May 15, 2023 by screambaby

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Oh that would be good with me. I'm one of like 3 people who liked the first one.

I quite like it as well, i though what pushes it down is taking itself seriously in many moments. It does seems like this is corrected for the sequel.

 

And while i doubt people really are eager to a sequel for that movie and most likely nobody cares about it that much, is the type of idea that is always appealing kinda like Jurassic Park. It´s a gigantic shark destroying things and eating everyone, it will always be a good hook, if it´s fun and well marketed it can thrive in a month without big competition 

[MovieMan89]

22 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

350M is not a best case scenario at all lol

 

Bad scenario would be 325M or so which would need some pretty bad drops going forward to make only 110M after a 63M second weekend 

 

340-350M is the meh scenario, pretty standard tbh considering the WOM 

 

370-380M is the actual best case scenario, and yeah that can be enough to win summer because while there lots of big movies that will be very succesful, none of them really screams a phenomenon 

It’s wild you think over 3x could actually happen looking at the summer slate but ok then. Even if it had a barren wasteland for its run, 3.3x for a CBM sequel would be INSANE. No way. 
 

But even if I am totally wrong there, no way nothing does 400 between Spidey, Mermaid, Mission, Barbie, even Indy in a best case scenario. Unless all of them are big turds 

Edited May 15, 2023 by MovieMan89

[ThomasNicole]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It’s laughable you think over 3x could actually happen looking at the summer slate but ok then. Even if it had a barren wasteland for its run, 3.3x for a CBM sequel would be INSANE. No way. 

Ok sure it made 98M this week alone but it will struggle to make another 100M for the next 8 weeks, very reasonable indeed ... there´s nothing absurd in expecting 130-ish after what we saw this week, it´s not more insane than a threequel dropping 46% and having the best hold ever for a MCU sequel and here we are

 

Fast X seems DOA domestic, TLM is a big competition but it´s not aiming 100% to the same audience since it will be female heavy and Guardians is skewed hard on the male audience [and both are DIS, they will certainly share screens or make double features and it´s also a holiday extended weekend which helps everybody] ... the first competition that is aiming to the same audience and it looks actually big is SpiderVerse in 3 weeks 

 

For someone who swear a sub 50% drop would be hard and that Zelda would stop it from thrive this weekend i find weird that you´re laughing and somewhat mocking someone elses projection

Edited May 15, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[Ledmonkey96]

x3 multi requires 145mil after this weekend so another 130ish won't be enough anyway

[WorkingonaName]

Summer winner will be Indy, Flash or Barbie. I reckon.

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, WorkingonaName said:

Summer winner will be Indy, Flash or Barbie. I reckon.

No way Barbie outgrosses Guardians.