Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI

[vafrow]

25 minutes ago, M37 said:

That's definitely on the cut line, but still going to have a PTA close to $2000, will lose some shows and screens, but I wouldn't think all that much. Theaters often preemptively pull one family movie when another releases, so Universal might let SMB die in favor of Fast X. Market can usually support 7-9 titles in 2K+ locations depending on how top heavy it is, think Fast X makes that cut, but below Boogeyman and GOTG3. Disney is going to have 4 of top 6 titles, so they may have to let Boogeyman (under Fox umbrella) take the beating in favor of the others

 

After the first few months of the year had almost no family films, if a theatre holds SMB, they'll have 4 family oriented films (Mario, Mermaid, Spiderverse, Elemental). That feels excessive for their needs.

 

I think theatres will drop Boogeyman in favor of Blackening if they're taking that on. Although, some theatres may keep Boogeyman instead, so they have something to drop next week for No Hard Feelings.

 

It still feels like Fast X will be facing some drops though, especially if there's a desire to double down on the new releases with screen allocations. But, it does feel like Universal will want to keep Fast X around for Father's Day. High dad quotient for that film.

[TigerPaw]

1 hour ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

I suspect Fast is in for a proper gutting

It is out on Digital already; so huge drops this weekend and going forward is expected.

 

Even John Wick 4 which held very well all weekends (other than 2nd weekend) died when digital was out.

[MightyDargon]

Shouldn't Guardians 3 be facing drops by now?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

5 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Shouldn't Guardians 3 be facing drops by now?

 

?

[MightyDargon]

In its number of screens/theaters. It's still playing on most of the big ones around me.

[M37]

8 minutes ago, vafrow said:

I think theatres will drop Boogeyman in favor of Blackening if they're taking that on. Although, some theatres may keep Boogeyman instead, so they have something to drop next week for No Hard Feelings.

I doubt that first part, because generally horror is mostly skewed toward bigger cities, which is where Blackening will open in its smaller run. Bogey will drop those bottom ~1000 locations easy, but I think it also gets relegated to 1-2 shows in a lot of the theaters it keeps (maybe even with an extra half screen of Elemental playing other shows).
 

Fast X may wind up with a larger overall show allocation than Boogey, even in fewer locations 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, MightyDargon said:

In its number of screens/theaters. It's still playing on most of the big ones around me.

 

It's definitely dropping. It has lost about 28% of the theaters it opened in and dropped 400 of them just this past week. 

[M37]

3 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

In its number of screens/theaters. It's still playing on most of the big ones around me.

GOTG3 is the 5th highest grossing title out right now, holding well, no reason to pull it. Probably drops only to 6th, ahead of Boogey, for next weekend 

[vafrow]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

I doubt that first part, because generally horror is mostly skewed toward bigger cities, which is where Blackening will open in its smaller run. Bogey will drop those bottom ~1000 locations easy, but I think it also gets relegated to 1-2 shows in a lot of the theaters it keeps (maybe even with an extra half screen of Elemental playing other shows).
 

Fast X may wind up with a larger overall show allocation than Boogey, even in fewer locations 

 

It'll definitely be interesting to watch. We're finally at the stage where theatres have tough decisions week to week on retention.

 

What I find funny is that Strays was also supposed to release this weekend. That would have complicated things quite a bit as well.

[MightyDargon]

Strays would have been an awful choice. If there's one genre that's performed consistently bad during COVID/post COVID its comedies.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[MightyDargon]

I'm skeptical it was a "real" 60.5 mil. More likely a high 58-59 mil.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[M37]

5 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

I'm skeptical it was a "real" 60.5 mil. More likely a high 58-59 mil.

[MightyDargon]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

That joke isn't funny anymore. (It's more likely just a deliberate overestimate than taking money away from another film)

[titanic2187]

8 hours ago, Starphanluke said:

Can someone explain to me (because I'm an idiot) why that's a meh Sat bump for Spider-Verse, but good for Transformers?

I guess SV2 as a animation, the plot is too mature for kids whereas Transformers has a way more kid-friendly a.k.a childish plot, therefore is more favoured among families.

 

Paramount again like to put up optimistic estimate for their releases. 20% drop on Sunday is a tough ask for $60.5m OW. 

 

  

[M37]

8 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

That joke isn't funny anymore. (It's more likely just a deliberate overestimate than taking money away from another film)

They don't have any other films out to steal from anyway, and a +15% Sat/-20% Sun is entirely plausible given the demo skew and family pull. Only a slightly better Sat than JWD on this same weekend last year, and without nearly the Fri fan rush of a $145M opener

Edited June 11, 2023 by M37

[kayumanggi]

 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

17 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

$500k from Puerto Rico? 😁

[MightyDargon]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

They don't have any other films out to steal from anyway, and a +15% Sat/-20% Sun is entirely plausible given the demo skew and family pull. Only a slightly better Sat than JWD on this same weekend last year, and without nearly the fan rush of a $145M opener

I mean it's imaginable but the temptation to round to a "perfect" estimate seems most likely.