Weekend Actuals (Jun 23 - 25) | 19.00M ATSV | 18.44M ELEMENTAL | 15.14M THE FLASH | 15.00M NO HARD FEELINGS

[MovieMan89]

Sub 20m for everything in peak summer is definitely atrocious. You’d think this was summer ‘21 again when theaters were still trying to figure out if they could get anyone to come back. 

[MovieMan89]

I will still maintain that this June was too packed. It woulda been fine if most of these movies delivered on the quality front. Since they were mostly “meh” to bad though, I definitely think some eating into each other happened here. There just wasn’t any reason for like 6 of the major tentpoles to come out in a 4 week span. Plenty of other spots on the cal, even if we went late summer which isn’t some kind of death wish like it was way back. Can easily do better in Aug/Sep with good marketing and less competition. 

Edited June 25, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Eric S'ennui]

1 hour ago, DAR said:

Since June 2017 was mentioned earlier I decided to look up that summer.   How the hell did we as a society allow the Emoji Movie to make 86 million?

You think that's bad? Just wait 5-10 years when a bunch of weirdo teenagers hype this up as a maligned masterpiece because they liked it when they were 8 years old. It's gonna be hilarious.

[TheFlatLannister]

It seems like Guardians is going to be #2 at the WW BO and ATSV is going to be #2 at the DOM BO

 

All the heavy hitters are pretty much out of the way (Aquaman and Mi7 are the last 2 big ones imo but unlikely to top GOTG or ATSV) 

[JohnnyGossamer]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Sub 20m for everything in peak summer is definitely atrocious. You’d think this was summer ‘21 again when theaters were still trying to figure out if they could get anyone to come back. 

No having anything new open big is what hurts it. Elemental, AtSV, TLM, GotGV3 all had excellent weekend to weekend drop. Asteroid City is biggest wide OW DOM for any Wes Anderson movie ever. Flash not opening well then plummeting 73% and NHF only opening to 15M are what make it stand out. 

 

I can't recall were there a ton of 110M weekends DOM in 2021? I don't recall many... Were there any even? Maybe the Black Widow for Fast 9 weekends?

[Eric S'ennui]

2 hours ago, Grebacio said:

There's TMNT on August 

Well yes, but that's not gonna be all that exciting for girls. I was listing movies that didn't have appeal to the Spider-Verse crowd.

 

2 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Let's be honest with ourselves: that movie will be lucky to make Smurfs The Lost Village numbers. It should have been out a decade ago when the Turtles were still fairly popular and the first Nickelodeon series was in its prime. Now, when no one cares about the brand anymore? And with the trailers not leaving much of a mark? And especially with the stench of the Michael Bay movies? I don't think that'll be a threat to Elemental at all.

Kinda felt this way for a while, but Quorum metrics are pretty solid for an animated movie this far out and is already well ahead of Meg 2 in a lot of key demos: https://thequorum.com/ninja-turtles-and-meg-2-court-the-same-demo-whos-winning/

 

Also, while Rise of the  TMNT show was a bit of a flop, the 2012 series is now over a decade old (that feels so weird to say lol. I was there when it premiered), so there's residual nostalgia there outside of the 80s kids. And both those shows are streaming on US Netflix. I don't think it's a big deal.

 

2 hours ago, AniNate said:

 

Too bad they've only got one nostalgic toy commercial on the schedule though

Don't they have two? And I'm sure Incredibles 3, Brave 2, and Nemo 3 are all in consideration, among plenty others. We'll get tons of those NTCs for years to come.

[JohnnyGossamer]

12 minutes ago, Eric Wayne said:

You think that's bad? Just wait 5-10 years when a bunch of weirdo teenagers hype this up as a maligned masterpiece because they liked it when they were 8 years old. It's gonna be hilarious.

GentleEmoji challenge on whichever app invariably replaces TikTok in the next 5 years? Rise of Gru numbers for the sequel. 

Edited June 25, 2023 by JohnnyGossamer

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, Eric Wayne said:

Well yes, but that's not gonna be all that exciting for girls. I was listing movies that didn't have appeal to the Spider-Verse crowd.

 

Kinda felt this way for a while, but Quorum metrics are pretty solid for an animated movie this far out and is already well ahead of Meg 2 in a lot of key demos: https://thequorum.com/ninja-turtles-and-meg-2-court-the-same-demo-whos-winning/

 

Also, while Rise of the  TMNT show was a bit of a flop, the 2012 series is now over a decade old (that feels so weird to say lol. I was there when it premiered), so there's residual nostalgia there outside of the 80s kids. And both those shows are streaming on US Netflix. I don't think it's a big deal.

 

Don't they have two? And I'm sure Incredibles 3, Brave 2, and Nemo 3 are all in consideration, among plenty others. We'll get tons of those NTCs for years to come.

I didn't realize Brave had enough of a following to warrant a sequel. Absolutely expect another Incredibles and Nemo. Heck, if they get Bird and Stanton back for each, I'll be first in line for both. 

[ringedmortality]

No Hard Feelings is great. It’s really the sex comedy of GenZ. A sexless sex comedy for the generation having the least amount of sex.

[Torontofan]

19 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

No Hard Feelings is great. It’s really the sex comedy of GenZ. A sexless sex comedy for the generation having the least amount of sex.

Rate was 27% male virgins under 30 in 2018.

 

Wonder it is now

[toutvabien]

3 hours ago, AniNate said:

 

Too bad they've only got one nostalgic toy commercial on the schedule though

They have 6 original films, all announced before Toy Story 5.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

I daresay a cheeky wide rerelease of Titanic would have outgrossed The Flash this weekend given the news

[JustWatching]

11 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

I daresay a cheeky wide rerelease of Titanic would have outgrossed The Flash this weekend given the news

Double bill: Titanic/K-19

[LonePirate]

Caught an afternoon showing of Asteroid City and I was bored by it. It's not an awful movie, just a boring one. Anderson is hit or miss for me and this one was a miss. I think the plot of a good movie is nestled inside this one - perhaps one that JJ Abrams of all people could bring to life - but this film is obscured by Anderson's ego and usual shenanigans. Some of my fellow audience members found the film to be quite funny so it will register with some people. 

[Dominic Draper]

10 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Caught an afternoon showing of Asteroid City and I was bored by it. It's not an awful movie, just a boring one. Anderson is hit or miss for me and this one was a miss. I think the plot of a good movie is nestled inside this one - perhaps one that JJ Abrams of all people could bring to life - but this film is obscured by Anderson's ego and usual shenanigans. Some of my fellow audience members found the film to be quite funny so it will register with some people. 

Hot take, but Wes Anderson peaked with The Royal Tenenbaums and Gene Hackman performance centers all the other characters and weird eccentricities of Wes work.

 

Wes needs to work with another actor that hates his guts.

[Litio]

2 hours ago, Barnack said:

 

I am not sure now, but during the peak of the DVD era, what was described (not making your theatrical release spending money back from the rental) happened to quite successful movies, most mid budget movie were greenlight with that in mind (theatrical releasing cost being above rental).

 

Theatrical being huge ads for the future window where the money were, I am sure it changed a lot with that money drying out fast.

 

They do split theatrical marketing with post theatrical marketing, but in reality it is not clean at all everything spent for the first window cascade helping the next one.

The Social Network, perfect success story all around, good money, not sure if it made its $110m releasing cost money back from theatrical rental, it was still around $10 million in the red (studio have a bit of love-hate relationship with Fincher with is marketing campaign demand/style), it made $172 in studio revenues after leaving theatre way more than during.

Thank you for your analysis! You are completely right and apparently theatrical release is still huge ads for the future window. Universal is doing "good" with the short window.

Universal Says On-Demand Film Strategy Has Increased Audience

 

The article says these are the VOD sales generated by Universal (article is dated June 7):

M3gan - $25M+

Sing 2 - $50m+

The Croods 2 -$50m+

Jurassic World 3 - $50m+

Super Mario Bros - $75m+

 

In streaming, cinema seems to help too. According to Samba TV, The Batman, released on HBO Max 45 days after its theatrical release, had more streams on HBO Max in the first week than other DC films with hybrid release. (Only smart TVs taken into account). 

'Creed 3' remains the most watched movie on Prime Video in the US since of June 9.

'Air' remains in the top 5 on Prime Video US. The film was released on the streaming platform on May 17.

 

I think this explains why many films that flopped in theaters are successful on streaming. If the film was highly marketed for theatrical release, its awareness level is high. Even though people didn't go to the cinema to see it, they have heard about the film, so the chance of watching it later in a "more comfortable option" is higher I guess.

[Deep Wang]

33 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Caught an afternoon showing of Asteroid City and I was bored by it. It's not an awful movie, just a boring one. Anderson is hit or miss for me and this one was a miss. I think the plot of a good movie is nestled inside this one - perhaps one that JJ Abrams of all people could bring to life - but this film is obscured by Anderson's ego and usual shenanigans. Some of my fellow audience members found the film to be quite funny so it will register with some people. 

lmao what

[LonePirate]

25 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

lmao what

 

Yes. Cut all of the B&W scenes/story and focus/expand on the core Asteroid City events and you have a movie which Abrams is more than capable of directing given his history with Lost, Star Trek, Super 8 and TROS.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

 

Yes. Cut all of the B&W scenes/story and focus/expand on the core Asteroid City events and you have a movie which Abrams is more than capable of directing given his history with Lost, Star Trek, Super 8 and TROS.

So cut all the personality from it and the rest will be something common enough JJ would direct it? Seems accurate 

[LonePirate]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

So cut all the personality from it and the rest will be something common enough JJ would direct it? Seems accurate 

The B&W scenes were little more than expository filler. You could easily jettison them and construct an interesting movie centered around the Asteroid City events.