Steve Rogers Birthday Bash Weekend Thread | 5-Day #s: Indy 83.4, Elemental 18, Spidey 17.65, Sound of Freedom 14.2, No Hard Feelings 11.3

[Borobudur]

9 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

The presales at my local AMCs are absolutely bananas and even looking at the Empire 25, there are already some half full showtimes on Monday. Principal photography wrapped in 2018 and Disney inherited it in the Fox merger, but didn't want it. They wouldn’t have known how to market it anyway. Angel Studios has a nice deal (for them) going where the crowdfund the P&A, the major studios could never...

 

 

 

they should have just go with the June 30 release date since Indy 5 is such a flop. 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

8 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I know we're a box office forum but jacking off Sound of Freedom feels incredibly weird to me.

I was originally going to post that Angel Studios has quite the grift going but considered that a little harsh. Per Deadline, they give 120 percent back to their patrons so it's not a wasted investment. Anyway, I just wonder how long they can keep up that business model, and if their fans will ever wonder why this studio can't ever fund their own advertising like all the other studiios...

[MovieMan89]

I also think it’s interesting that right as Disney has started to crumble, Nintendo has kind of risen up to totally dominate in the entertainment industry, even in film now. Interesting bc there are definitely parallels between the two brand’s images and purposes. Almost like Nintendo is replacing their “spot.” 

[MovieMan89]

Speaking of Nintendo, I think Mario is going to be the last billion dollar grosser for a long time if MI can’t pull it off. I mean I guess Barbie could if it goes crazy and does like 500 DOM, but that’s really a best case scenario. 

[JohnCarterofEarth]

Next year does look better for Disney. Deadpool 3 will almost certainly be a mega hit. Inside Out 2 will probably be a return to form for Pixar at least in terms of Pixar, Lion King 2 will probably make a billion dollars and New World Order I think will make $$$. I hope Elio is a success.🤞 Snow White I think will flop. No one asked for it, seemed to be greenlighted just to put out there for stockholders. 

Edited July 1, 2023 by JohnCarterofEarth

[FunkMiller]

16 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I also think it’s interesting that right as Disney has started to crumble, Nintendo has kind of risen up to totally dominate in the entertainment industry, even in film now. Interesting bc there are definitely parallels between the two brand’s images and purposes. Almost like Nintendo is replacing their “spot.” 

 

Replace Disney with 'movies' and Nintendo with 'video games' and you're about right.

 

There's a whole lot of whistling past the graveyard about how gaming utterly dwarves Hollywood these days. And now the games are starting to win in Hollywood as well...

[The Dark Alfred]

Disney needs to focus on quality, not quantity. Streaming is clearly not working for them. They lost billions on streaming so far. ESPN is in trouble as well.  They were just pumping out films and thinking it's 2019 as mentioned before. Once they test films properly and focus on quality, revenue will come. It is no coincidence that the best film of the summer (ATSV) is winning at the domestic box office.

[JustLurking]

14 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I also think it’s interesting that right as Disney has started to crumble, Nintendo has kind of risen up to totally dominate in the entertainment industry, even in film now. Interesting bc there are definitely parallels between the two brand’s images and purposes. Almost like Nintendo is replacing their “spot.” 

chill out man they got 1 (one) film out. I get the fanboying but seriously

 

saying that the mcu can only get a hit with an "era ending" film when in fact 5 out of their last 6 films made profit is ridiculous and I say this as someone who is pretty critical of the mcu's prospects

 

their animation divisions are having a rough patch but it's not like this hasn't happened before for them

 

avatar is still gigantic and just about a guaranteed success

 

star wars as troubled as it is is still a massive ip

 

the doomposting is INSANE

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, JohnCarterofEarth said:

Next year does look better for Disney. Deadpool 3 will almost certainly be a mega hit. Inside Out 2 will probably be a return to form for Pixar at least in terms of Pixar, Lion King 2 will probably make a billion dollars and New World Order I think will make $$$. I hope Elio is a success.🤞 Snow White I think will flop. No one asked for it, seemed to be greenlighted just to put out there for stockholders. 

I think all of those are very likely to flop/underperform except Deadpool and Inside Out. And IO is only a wild card if anything, it seems like a very odd movie to make a sequel to. If it feels forced, it will bomb, especially with Pixar’s current state. 

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, FunkMiller said:

 

Replace Disney with 'movies' and Nintendo with 'video games' and you're about right.

 

There's a whole lot of whistling past the graveyard about how gaming utterly dwarves Hollywood these days. And now the games are starting to win in Hollywood as well...

Triple A gaming is about to collapse.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

21 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

they should have just go with the June 30 release date since Indy 5 is such a flop. 

They'll probably want to combine the Monday-Thursday numbers with the typical OW figures so they'll have a big total number to tout when the box office reports for next Sunday come out. That's been going on for years in the UK market, with extended previews.

[JohnCarterofEarth]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

I think all of those are very likely to flop/underperform except Deadpool and Inside Out. And IO is only a wild card if anything, it seems like a very odd movie to make a sequel to. If it feels forced, it will bomb, especially with Pixar’s current state. 

Lion King is very solid IP. I don’t see the sequel making as much as the first one but I do think a billion is close to a lock. 

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

chill out man they got 1 (one) film out. I get the fanboying but seriously

 

saying that the mcu can only get a hit with an "era ending" film when in fact 5 out of their last 6 films made profit is ridiculous and I say this as someone who is pretty critical of the mcu's prospects

 

their animation divisions are having a rough patch but it's not like this hasn't happened before for them

 

avatar is still gigantic and just about a guaranteed success

 

star wars as troubled as it is is still a massive ip

 

the doomposting is INSANE

I have brought this up before, but there has never been a period in Disney history where their animation department struggling hasn’t led to a huge downturn/rough time for the whole company. Quite literally never. That’s always a harbinger for them. 
 

Your MCU stuff doesn’t add up either, since the only ones that have been a true success for them since EG are No Way Home, Shang Chi, and Guardians. 2/3 are the era ending I was talking about, and Guardians wouldn’t have been a hit at all if it didn’t have some insane WOM. Proving how damaged MCU really is.  

Edited July 1, 2023 by MovieMan89

[FunkMiller]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Triple A gaming is about to collapse.

 

The games industry including mobile is worth 347 billion revenue a year. I think it'll be fine, even if some individual AAA games devs go under. Waaaaay too big to fail as a whole now.

Edited July 1, 2023 by FunkMiller

[rebelscum86]

42 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

45+ audience skew for Indy from Deadline...and other demos through Friday...and new weekend projection is $60M...(Men under 25 15%, Women under 25 7%)

 

"Couple that with sour reviews coming out of Cannes, plus the finale’s older skewing audience (42% over 45) who are slow to come to cinemas, and here we are with a less-than-stellar box office result."

 

"–PostTrak’s audience is 79% and four stars. The leading guy 25+ ticket buyers at 43% are giving it a 77% grade. That’s not good. Overall, men at a 58% turnout are giving a 74% grade."

 

-..."women like Dial of Destiny better than men with a 85% grade. Women over 25, who showed up at 35%, give it an 86%."

 

 

"–The older Dial of Destiny‘s audience gets, the better the grades with the 45-55 sect (19% turnout) giving it 83% and the over 55 people (at 23%) giving it 89%."

 

"–Diversity demos were 54% Caucasian (79% grade), 18% Latino and Hispanic (80% grade), Black at 10% (73% grade), and Asian 13% (80% grade)."

 

"–Pic played Destiny played best in the West, Mountain and Mid-West. PLF and Imax driving 37% of the weekend to date. Disney’s El Capitan in Los Angeles is the top grossing theater so far with $114K running cume."

 

https://deadline.com/2023/07/box-office-indiana-jones-and-the-dial-of-destiny-1235427644/

 

This is really interesting data. There is obvious selection bias in that these are the older people who chose to go see Indy 5 and are open to it, but this seems to suggest Boomers weren't scared away. With some other off topic cultural / politic data it seems like my Gen X is the middle child in this, with a good portion of the 1st cohort of Millennials that really resents everything going on culturally. I wonder why that is and what foundationally set us apart?

 

25 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I know we're a box office forum but jacking off Sound of Freedom feels incredibly weird to me.

Why are there so many comments like this? Bad things are bad regardless of who finds them bad. Child trafficking exist, and it is much larger than reported on, what Jeffrey Epstein did was real, parts of this movie are true. It's extremely disturbing the amount of people bothered by a "child sex trafficking is BAD movie" b/c people they disagree with or don't like are excited about it.

I'm a communist refugee, but if commies were trying to show people how bad and oppressive drug addiction, I wouldn't suddenly flip to no drugs are fine, lets not signal boost the commies.

 

17 minutes ago, Eric Jones said:

Dude what the hell are you even going on about lmao

 

What part is in question? Studios are making movies alienating that don't need to be, and yes there are people checking out. I don't believe my post is incoherent grammtically so maybe you disagree, but different people exist and you only hurt your awareness of reality if you hide dissent.

Movies are mostly hurt by the recession and inflation and great movies can over come that. So yes most of a movie underperforming is the quality of the movie. But most movies aren't great, they are average. And average movies would be doing better if there wasn't 10-30% of their audience that moved on.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

We can at least take away one lesson from this summer box office: control the damn budgets.

[Mulder]

Just now, FunkMiller said:

 

The games industry including mobile is worth 347 billion a year. I think it'll be fine, even if some individual AAA games devs go under.

Mobile gaming is one thing (And even then is very tied to the triple A industry), console and PC gaming is another. The console and PC gaming sphere right now is incredibly unhealthy. There is no entertainment industry right now that I'd call 'healthy'.

[FunkMiller]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

Mobile gaming is one thing (And even then is very tied to the triple A industry), console and PC gaming is another. The console and PC gaming sphere right now is incredibly unhealthy. There is no entertainment industry right now that I'd call 'healthy'.

 

Just console and PC is still over four times larger than Hollywood, with a far more diverse base of creators. And I tend to agree that gaming has its own fair share of issues right now, but Hollywood needs to improve its output to compete better over the coming years, otherwise it is going to suffer extremely badly.

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, JohnCarterofEarth said:

Lion King is very solid IP. I don’t see the sequel making as much as the first one but I do think a billion is close to a lock. 

The vitriol for the remake is on an insane level, and not just from me. I’ve never heard one person in real life not talk about how horrendous it was. That movie is a guaranteed car crash for them, unless family audiences are totally desperate at the time of release. 

[LegionWrex]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I have brought this up before, but there has never been a period in Disney history where their animation department struggling hasn’t led to a huge downturn/rough time for the whole company. Quite literally never. That’s always a harbinger for them. 

Nailed it. And it's not like they've been in a bad situation before, the mid 70s-late 80s were absolutely dire for Disney, very similar to now. And why? Cause their animation department was struggling and putting out either financial failures or critical duds. I suspect we are in a similar spot at the moment. Out of the films they have coming out on the animation side, it's really only Inside Out 2 I feel really confident in doing well (feels like an easy box office win), everything else is basically a wild card.

 

Obviously Disney will rebound. Just like how WB/Paramount/Universal/whoever rebounds. The question is less if/when and moreso how, and I think it will come after some pretty major internal changes at the company.

 

If anything, this could mean the decade will have a bunch of weird experimental stuff coming from the animation side in an attempt to do something new like the post-Renaissance era which would be interesting to see. That era was also not great, though not nearly as dire as the aforementioned 70s/80s, as a lot of stuff bombed hard but I would at least love to see some interesting swings.