Steve Rogers Birthday Bash Weekend Thread | 5-Day #s: Indy 83.4, Elemental 18, Spidey 17.65, Sound of Freedom 14.2, No Hard Feelings 11.3

[Dephira]

Spider Man and Elemental moving together like 

[DAJK]

Something I was thinking would happen at the beginning of summer, but ultimately did not come to pass…

 

I think it’s safe to say that Aladdin 2.0 The Little Mermaid is not.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

50 minutes ago, AN9815 said:

Do you guys think South Korea performance for Elemental can be replicated in Japan? Or at least overperform compared to expectations? I think if it does the WW total could end up looking pretty decent, not a hit but not a money loser

Best case scenario is it plays like Aladdin did and goes "anything you can do I can do better" to south korea and outgrosses it so we end up with a big breakout in both countries. This is unlikely though since Japan seem to prefer musicals/live action adaptions over pixar and for obvious reasons Elemental will appeal to Koreans more than Japanese people. You just never know with Japan though, it always surprises one way or another!

[Valonqar]

19 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

The nuances matter even to them. There's a difference in the impact of a huge opener that crashes and a terrible opener that ends up finding legs. The former is indicative that audiences didn't care for the final product much and the latter indicates the movie was not promoted well. If Elemental legs its way to a not embarrassing total, the people who were actually involved in producing the movie should (and I think will) be let off the hook, and I don't think Pixar will have to deal with the kind of intense creative and budgetary scrutiny in the future they might have if Elemental just flared out at like 200m ww.

 

well they will deal with budgetary scrutiny if it doesn't make money back, break even point or not. I agree that bombs are bombs but break-evens aren't proof that overbudgeting should become a norm either. 

 

Also, fans love WOM legs but studios get the biggest % of the gross in the first 10 days of dom release and it's diminishing from there. hence their love of OW. Hence 2.5 x budget not just 2 x budget. some of these leggy not-hits look cute on paper but studios are getting very little from their stabilized leggy run. 

Edited July 4, 2023 by Valonqar

[AniNate]

 

6 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

well they will deal with budgetary scrutiny if it doesn't make money back, break even point or not. I agree that bombs are bombs but break-evens aren't proof that overbudgeting should become a norm either. 

 

Also, fans love WOM legs but studios get the biggest % of the gross in the first 10 days of dom release and it's diminishing from there. hence their love of OW. Hence 2.5 x budget not just 2 x budget. some of these leggy not-hits look cute on paper but studios are getting very little from their stabizlied leggy run. 

 

Not to say I don't think the marketing department shouldn't get scrutiny. They very much should now because Elemental advertising was awful. But I'm not sure if it's Pixar or Disney at large who is more responsible for that.

 

 I definitely think though it would be bad form now if Sohn and Ream went the way of Maclane and Susman. The movie is a legit phenomenon in Korea, and I think its impressive international legs are as big a testament to Disney's efforts to "go global" as anything.

 

Edited July 4, 2023 by AniNate

[Issac Newton]

$82.0M Indiana Jones 5 

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Something I was thinking would happen at the beginning of summer, but ultimately did not come to pass…

 

I think it’s safe to say that Aladdin 2.0 The Little Mermaid is not.

Aladdin had truly exceptional WOM, but TLM wasn’t drastically removed from Aladdin’s DOM performance. Almost the same OW and about 50m less total. Strong showing, but yes nothing comes close to Aladdin’s WOM for the LA remakes. 

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

 

 

Not to say I don't think the marketing department shouldn't get scrutiny. They very much should now because Elemental advertising was awful. But I'm not sure if it's Pixar or Disney at large who is more responsible for that.

 

But I definitely think it would be bad form now if Sohn and Ream went the way of Maclane and Susman. The movie is a legit phenomenon in Korea, and I think its impressive international legs are as big a testament to Disney's efforts to "go global" as anything.

 

 

So how do you explain TLM rejection in new markets (it's doing alright in old ones) if "go global" went well? It's case to case basis. Some movies click and not necessarily in all markets (eg. Fast&Furious phenom in China til recently) some click almost everywhere some don't click anywhere. This year, Mario clobbered Disney as "go global" movie of the year and by a large margin. 

 

14 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Something I was thinking would happen at the beginning of summer, but ultimately did not come to pass…

 

I think it’s safe to say that Aladdin 2.0 The Little Mermaid is not.

 

Aladdin is much more appealing to variety of demos than heavily female skewing TLM. Expecting Aladdin 2.0 was a bit of a tall order but understandable. Expecting BP 2.0 was just plain stupid. I don't know if TLM star got carried away or coached to say that but that was setting your movie up for disappeoingtment if there was ever one. Smart game is downplaying boxoffice so that you can claim exceeded expectations. Look what releasing MoM trailer at the end of NWH did to MoM. It now looks like a disappointment relative to lofty expectations set by that marketing stunt even though it's a legit hit based on budget/profit ratio and healthy growth of audience since the first movie.

[grim22]

18 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Something I was thinking would happen at the beginning of summer, but ultimately did not come to pass…

 

I think it’s safe to say that Aladdin 2.0 The Little Mermaid is not.

The first 2 weeks tracked closely to Aladdin domestically before it just fell off. Aladdin had crazy word of mouth for sure combined with everything else flopping around it. I think TLM needed a big name like Aladdin had Will Smith, there was no extra value added element beyond remaking an older movie.

[Borobudur]

19 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Something I was thinking would happen at the beginning of summer, but ultimately did not come to pass…

 

I think it’s safe to say that Aladdin 2.0 The Little Mermaid is not.

Domestic wise I would say it is like a Aladdin 2.0. The movie still on track to $300m finish if this past weekend is any sign. The movie is $19m away from $300m as of Sunday and the past 7 days added $11m and we still have strong mid-week boosted by ID and a upcoming slow weekend. 

 

 

[AN9815]

57 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

This kind of nitpicking is only what fans care about. In the industry world, it's either profit or not. So what we call not a hit but not a money loser (this, TLM) is not a hit. Plain and simple. Did a movie make profit? No? Not a hit. Nobody makes big summer movies to only break even. 

I mean sure but I was referring more to the future of Pixar and original animation. A $400-450m WW for Elemental, although not what was once hoped, could still point towards a slow recovery for original animation after COVID. At least it is not crashing like Lightyear ($230m WW)

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, grim22 said:

The first 2 weeks tracked closely to Aladdin domestically before it just fell off. Aladdin had crazy word of mouth for sure combined with everything else flopping around it. I think TLM needed a big name like Aladdin had Will Smith, there was no extra value added element beyond remaking an older movie.

 

TLM lost ground on Father's Day weekend. I gues that was the moment when male audience said oh hell no and got their way and while it kept good holds on weekdays lost ground is lost ground. It's hard to recover without some significant booster and with even weak competition biting pieces of your audience (NHF, Elemental). 

 

5 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Domestic wise I would say it is like a Aladdin 2.0. The movie still on track to $300m finish if this past weekend is any sign. The movie is $19m away from $300m as of Sunday and the past 7 days added $11m and we still have strong mid-week boosted by ID and a upcoming slow weekend. 

 

 

 

It's going to make over 300M but it needed OS due to its ridiculous budget and even if OS crawls to 300M somehow it simply isn't enough. 250M is official budget before P&A which is too much already and you bet that unofficial budget is bigger. 

[AniNate]

16 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

So how do you explain TLM rejection in new markets (it's doing alright in old ones) if "go global" went well? It's case to case basis. Some movies click and not necessarily in all markets (eg. Fast&Furious phenom in China til recently) some click almost everywhere some don't click anywhere. This year, Mario clobbered Disney as "go global" movie of the year and by a large margin. 

 

I'm not comparing Elemental to either of those. It does look possible it may overtake Spiderverse's OS mark for what that's worth.

 

The binary "hit/flop" concept really is more of a normie/film journalism thing than a business insider thing. Comparing the gross to the budget can be vaguely useful in analyzing a movie's success as an outsider, but there are a lot of factors that come into play that determine how much the studio ultimately values an IP, many of which we're not even privy to. Heck, The Princess and the Frog was a disappointment in 2009 yet Disney is now retheming a classic park ride to it and making a tv series based on the property. Also the directors went on to make Moana in 2016 which was much more of a legit hit.

Edited July 4, 2023 by AniNate

[baumer]

25 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

$82.0M Indiana Jones 5 

 

On Monday 😲😲

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

 

I'm not comparing Elemental to either of those. It does look possible it may overtake Spiderverse's OS mark for what that's worth.

 

The binary "hit/flop" concept really is more of a normie/film journalism thing than a business insider thing. Comparing the gross to the budget can be vaguely useful in analyzing a movie's success as an outsider, but there are a lot of factors that come into play that determine how much the studio ultimately values an IP, many of which we're not even privy to. Heck, The Princess and the Frog was a flop in 2009 yet Disney is now retheming a classic park ride to it and making a tv series based on the property. Also the directors went on to make Moana in 2016 which was much more of legit hit.

Good points though studios don't make necessarily good decisions. Disney turned Willow into a series and it flopped so hard they removed it from D+. I don't know what they expected from a show based on a George Lucas turkey. Eveyrone with half brain would tell them it was going to flop. Sometimes it seems they produce shit destined to flop just to fill the content for their streamers. 

 

8 minutes ago, AN9815 said:

I mean sure but I was referring more to the future of Pixar and original animation. A $400-450m WW for Elemental, although not what was once hoped, could still point towards a slow recovery for original animation after COVID. At least it is not crashing like Lightyear ($230m WW)

 

Ah OK that makes sense. Well, Elemental is an original Pixar story and Pixar has always been a brand itself soi that's a bigger draw than being a spin-off or sequel to another Pixar movie.

[screambaby]

Yeah horror movies like EDR and scream 6 have lower budgets. That's cause no one thinks their gonna make a billion dollars and blow 300 million on them.

 

Scream  6 and EDR made more money domestically then shaazam which hillarious .

 

Scream 6 might even make more domestically then the flash...lulz

Edited July 4, 2023 by screambaby

[screambaby]

10 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

On Monday 😲😲

bye bye TFA and avatar!

[MovieMan89]

11 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

On Monday 😲😲

Didn’t you hear? Disney announced they are splitting Avatar 2s gross evenly between this year’s release slate. 

Edited July 4, 2023 by MovieMan89

[grim22]

21 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

TLM lost ground on Father's Day weekend. I gues that was the moment when male audience said oh hell no and got their way and while it kept good holds on weekdays lost ground is lost ground. It's hard to recover without some significant booster and with even weak competition biting pieces of your audience (NHF, Elemental). 

 

 

It's going to make over 300M but it needed OS due to its ridiculous budget and even if OS crawls to 300M somehow it simply isn't enough. 250M is official budget before P&A which is too much already and you bet that unofficial budget is bigger. 

I think the issue is that studios need to stop making movies with such huge budgets that breakeven will be north of 600M for them. Or even the crazy 750M for Indy 

[Valonqar]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

I think the issue is that studios need to stop making movies with such huge budgets that breakeven will be north of 600M for them. Or even the crazy 750M for Indy 

 

absolutely yet they keep doing it and think that aggressive marketing which costs too much on its own will force audience into cinemas. But the fact is that covid changed some movie-going habits and people are simply more selective. They go to cinemas an masse for something special and wait for streaming for the rest. hence why some movies that should have flew past the break-even point are struggling to get there or are going to miss it altogether. This year, only Mario and SV were those special movies. Vol 3 was saved by legs but otherwise should have opened bigger. The rest, 🤷‍♂️