IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 2 hours ago, WorkingonaName said: I reckon Oppy does 2 Flashs. I only work in old money, whats that in morbillions? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Terrific Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 As a Disney stan, I can tell you Mickey wants parents’ money more than kids’ adrenochrome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toutvabien Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 People really out there saying Gen Z don't know who Nolan is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elden Lord Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 17 hours ago, MovieMan89 said: Holy shit, forgot until googling that in addition to Mars, Lone Ranger, John Carter, and Strange World all have estimated losses in the 100-200mil range as well. Disney really looking to make that level of box office bomb an exclusive top ten club at this point. Elemental is shaping up to be a major loss for Disney as well, even with all the talk of it having good "legs". With a reported budget of $200 million and an assumed marketing cost of $50 -$100 million, Elemental has to bring in a WW of roughly $550 million (give or take $50 million) to get to break even territory. Right now it is sitting at $196 million WW.... That is shaping up to be a major loss for Disney (Pixar) as well, with Indy following quickly on it's heels. Let's face it, the conversation of Elemental having good legs only stems from it's really poor OW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MightyDargon Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 17 minutes ago, toutvabien said: People really out there saying Gen Z don't know who Nolan is. I don't think they know what Gen Z's age range actually is then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCKillswitch123 Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, Elden Lord said: Elemental is shaping up to be a major loss for Disney as well, even with all the talk of it having good "legs". With a reported budget of $200 million and an assumed marketing cost of $50 -$100 million, Elemental has to bring in a WW of roughly $550 million (give or take $50 million) to get to break even territory. Right now it is sitting at $196 million WW.... That is shaping up to be a major loss for Disney (Pixar) as well, with Indy following quickly on it's heels. Let's face it, the conversation of Elemental having good legs only stems from it's really poor OW. How many times does it have to be repeated that the conversation on Elemental's legs isn't exactly to point out that it's a big success - rather, it proves the viability of original animation from Pixar theatrically. Sure, overbudgeted, but having a potential 150m DOM finish off of a sub-30m 3-day opening can't be spun as anything other than positive, even if the film fails to break even. It'll be a beast in ancilliares and a top Disney+ performer, so even if it doesn't get in the green through ticket sales, and it obviously is disappointing compared to its budget, it bodes well for the future of cinema. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said: How many times does it have to be repeated that the conversation on Elemental's legs isn't exactly to point out that it's a big success - rather, it proves the viability of original animation from Pixar theatrically. Sure, overbudgeted, but having a potential 150m DOM finish off of a sub-30m 3-day opening can't be spun as anything other than positive, even if the film fails to break even. It'll be a beast in ancilliares and a top Disney+ performer, so even if it doesn't get in the green through ticket sales, and it obviously is disappointing compared to its budget, it bodes well for the future of cinema. But, it's only viable if they can make the original stuff cheaper. I'm not sure Pixar can do Pixar at a lower cost...at least, they've never done it yet. Disney can't take $100M losses b/c they can't bring the budget from $200M to $100M (where this leggy performance shows it would be viable)... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elden Lord Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said: How many times does it have to be repeated that the conversation on Elemental's legs isn't exactly to point out that it's a big success - rather, it proves the viability of original animation from Pixar theatrically. Sure, overbudgeted, but having a potential 150m DOM finish off of a sub-30m 3-day opening can't be spun as anything other than positive, even if the film fails to break even. It'll be a beast in ancilliares and a top Disney+ performer, so even if it doesn't get in the green through ticket sales, and it obviously is disappointing compared to its budget, it bodes well for the future of cinema. And how many times does it need to be pointed out that studios don't spend north of $300 million for moral victories of future movies? Trying to spin a loss of possible $100 million (or more) into something like it will get good views on D+, a sub service that is itself hemorrhaging money that Elemental cannot make a dent in, is not why a studio shells out $300 million. Disney is not worried about the future of cinema when it can't turn a profit on it's current cinema... Makeup on a pig my friend... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 12 hours ago, MovieMan89 said: But to do my 500/1b high end I think it definitely does. Or at the very least, WOM has to be raves level. We know from those examples that WOM and reviews are 2 different things. Avatar and Titanic didn't have raves like some raved movies but they had out of this world WOM. Mario didn't even have good reviews but it has amazing WOM. Curiosity about Barbie is way past the point of reviews moving the needle one way or the other. It's an event. And since WOM and reviews don't always overlap, reviews don't matter. I think WOM will be amazing. Also lets remeber that another watercooler success Inception got B+ CS. And that didn't hurt WOM one bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCKillswitch123 Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: But, it's only viable if they can make the original stuff cheaper. I'm not sure Pixar can do Pixar at a lower cost...at least, they've never done it yet. Disney can't take $100M losses b/c they can't bring the budget from $200M to $100M (where this leggy performance shows it would be viable)... Elemental is literally their first original film to get a real theatrical run in theaters since 2017. We all know what happened to their other movies from 2020 onward and this was never gonna have an easy job performing strong right out of the gate, so I think that its performance is merely a trendsetter for upcoming films from the brand, which can surely increase its results if similarly well received. Let Pixar do Pixar. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InVy Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: But, it's only viable if they can make the original stuff cheaper. I'm not sure Pixar can do Pixar at a lower cost...at least, they've never done it yet. Disney can't take $100M losses b/c they can't bring the budget from $200M to $100M (where this leggy performance shows it would be viable)... the last PIxar original in theatres Coco "only" made 210 in USA. It only became a "classic" much later. Soul probably would have made more but still 200m being the ceiling for such a good film shows that even before Disney+ & Covid it was tough for original movies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCKillswitch123 Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Elden Lord said: And how many times does it need to be pointed out that studios don't spend north of $300 million for moral victories of future movies? Trying to spin a loss of possible $100 million (or more) into something like it will get good views on D+, a sub service that is itself hemorrhaging money that Elemental cannot make a dent in, is not why a studio shells out $300 million. Disney is not worried about the future of cinema when it can't turn a profit on it's current cinema... Makeup on a pig my friend... And how many times does it need to be pointed out that literally, who gives a shit? If the movie makes 400 million worldwide off of a 44 million worldwide opening, even Disney won't care about the money they lost. They'll make a lot from D+, VOD, ancilliaries, marketing deals and merchandise. It will literally be the highest grossing original film in years. Given the direction Disney took with Pixar in 2020-2022, it will help other movies soar. That's all. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MightyDargon Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 Again, Cinemascore doesn't actually measure a movie's quality/legs that well. Joker was a B+. What it DOES measure is whether OW audiences "got what they thought they'd get". Of course Cinemascore is prone to bad sampling too, like any other kind of polling. There are more reliable methods out there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 (edited) 10 hours ago, eeetooki said: Some people really need to stop expecting 1 billion box office or else FLOP standards. It's ridiculous. It isn't just people here. When studios waste obscene amounts of money on budget and marketing you know that they hardly expect less from those overly expensive movies. TLM was expected to at least replicate Aladdin's run if not become BP like phenomenon (as per Halle Bailey). DoD was supposed to become a franchise starter for the new lead (as per KK and PWB). The Flash was supposed to save DCEU. Quantumania was supposed to set up Kang's Dynasty. So you bet that all those movies seemed like minimum 1B grossers on paper hence ridiculous budgets and over-marketing. Edited July 7, 2023 by Valonqar 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MightyDargon Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Valonqar said: It isn't just people here. When studios waste obscene amounts of money on budget and marketing you know that they hardly expect less from those overly expensive movies. TLM was expected to at least replicate Aladdin's run if not become BP like phenomenon (as per Halle Bailey). DoD was supposed to become a franchise starter for the new lead (as per KK and PWB). The Flash was supposed to save DCEU. Quantumania was supposed to set up Kang's Dynasty. So you bet that all those movies seemed like minimum 1B grossers on paper hence ridiculous budgets and over-marketing. The Flash was NOT going to save DCEU. The Gunn reboot was already set. Maybe if Black Adam hadn't bombed but did mid THEN Flash could have been in a legit position to save DCEU but it was ALREADY DEAD, and audiences knew it despite the "best superhero movie since The Dark Knight" screeching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 1 minute ago, MightyDargon said: The Flash was NOT going to save DCEU. The Gunn reboot was already set. Maybe if Black Adam hadn't bombed but did mid THEN Flash could have been in a legit position to save DCEU but it was ALREADY DEAD, and audiences knew it despite the "best superhero movie since The Dark Knight" screeching. Yeah that manufacrtured screeching looks hilarious in hindsight. It's funny that the same studio behind that disastrous hype campaign is also winning with incredible Barbie hype campaign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MightyDargon Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Valonqar said: Yeah that manufacrtured screeching looks hilarious in hindsight. It's funny that the same studio behind that disastrous hype campaign is also winning with incredible Barbie hype campaign. Different marketing people most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elden Lord Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said: And how many times does it need to be pointed out that literally, who gives a shit? If the movie makes 400 million worldwide off of a 44 million worldwide opening, even Disney won't care about the money they lost. They'll make a lot from D+, VOD, ancilliaries, marketing deals and merchandise. It will literally be the highest grossing original film in years. Given the direction Disney took with Pixar in 2020-2022, it will help other movies soar. That's all. 1st of all it isn’t going to make $400 mil. Right now it’s at a 50/50 split on Dom/Int, so at best it could hope for is $300 mil WW at this point, unless something crazy happens. You really think VOD will cover that loss? Again… Disney can’t pay it’s bills or make it stockholders (which I am one of) happy with moral victories of largest grosses when that still loses them $100 million… Lightyear made about $1.5 million in home vid sales… what’s Elementals ceiling? $10 million? $20 million? D+? People already paying their sub will see it, there is very little evidence that Elemental will increase subs when tentpoles like Marvel and Star Wars can’t do that. Who gives a shit if it loses money? Disney does! In case you haven’t noticed, Disney is in severe penny pitching mode because of their financial struggles and expensive investments ! Who gives a shit? The stockholders do! The board does! The idea that this movie having really good legs is indicative of future animation box office performance is really stretching it when all this could be is some decent WOM mixed in with kids starting their summer off and families needing something to do. At the end of the day, Disney is a business, businesses are in it for the money. Not bragging rights of top grossers that still lose them a shitload of money. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, MightyDargon said: Different marketing people most likely. agreed. also, they were really desperate to make The Flash a hit so they made those missteps with early screenings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCKillswitch123 Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 Just now, Elden Lord said: 1st of all it isn’t going to make $400 mil. Right now it’s at a 50/50 split on Dom/Int, so at best it could hope for is $300 mil WW at this point, unless something crazy happens. You really think VOD will cover that loss? Again… Disney can’t pay it’s bills or make it stockholders (which I am one of) happy with moral victories of largest grosses when that still loses them $100 million… Lightyear made about $1.5 million in home vid sales… what’s Elementals ceiling? $10 million? $20 million? D+? People already paying their sub will see it, there is very little evidence that Elemental will increase subs when tentpoles like Marvel and Star Wars can’t do that. Who gives a shit if it loses money? Disney does! In case you haven’t noticed, Disney is in severe penny pitching mode because of their financial struggles and expensive investments ! Who gives a shit? The stockholders do! The board does! The idea that this movie having really good legs is indicative of future animation box office performance is really stretching it when all this could be is some decent WOM mixed in with kids starting their summer off and families needing something to do. At the end of the day, Disney is a business, businesses are in it for the money. Not bragging rights of top grossers that still lose them a shitload of money. You literally lose on the first sentence. Movie hasn't opened in every market yet, it's having Titanic-sized runs in certain countries (namely South Korea), it's holding monstruously OS as well. It's already at 100 million OS without UK, Japan and some European countries. 150 million DOM + 250 million internationally for 400 million is not at all unlikely and it'll likely come closer to that than 300 million. But whatever, if you're happier with the argument that it's unsalvageable, cool, good for you. 13 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
