The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

Inceptionzq · July 7, 2023

On 7/6/2023 at 3:27 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Alamo Drafthouse

T-5 Tuesday 149 Showings 3415 +417 22317 ATP: 8.61
0.448 AtSV T-5 7.77M
0.499 Avatar 2 T-5 8.48M

T-6 Wednesday 191 Showings 1593 +234 29137 ATP: 16.70

T-7 Thursday 159 Showings 1263 +141 25512 ATP: 16.41

T-8 Friday 144 Showings 1858 +147 23256 ATP: 16.67
0.331 AtSV T-8 11.41M
0.249 Avatar 2 T-8 9.03M

T-9 Saturday 145 Showings 2241 +211 23839 ATP: 16.18
0.423 AtSV T-9 15.82M
0.264 Avatar 2 T-9 11.71M

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Alamo Drafthouse

T-4 Tuesday

149 Showings

3844

+429

22317

ATP:

8.66

0.466	AtSV T-4	8.09M
0.523	Avatar 2 T-4	8.88M
0.494	JW Dominion T-4	8.88M

T-5 Wednesday

191 Showings

1871

+278

29137

ATP:

16.71

T-6 Thursday

159 Showings

1439

+176

25512

ATP:

16.32

T-7 Friday

144 Showings

2063

+205

23256

ATP:

16.69

0.326

AtSV T-7

11.23M

0.303

JW Dominion T-7

12.60M

T-8 Saturday

145 Showings

2475

+234

23839

ATP:

16.16

0.439

AtSV T-8

16.42M

0.387

JW Dominion T-8

18.16M

Inceptionzq · July 7, 2023

On 7/6/2023 at 3:29 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Emagine Entertainment

T-4 Monday 7 Showings 313 +41 1602
T-5 Tuesday 197 Showings 1100 +163 28906
0.575 AtSV T-5 9.98M

T-6 Wednesday 284 Showings 364 +87 39172

T-7 Thursday 240 Showings 218 +27 35129

T-8 Friday 205 Showings 403 +55 32416
0.418 Indiana Jones T-8 7.02M
0.202 AtSV T-8 6.96M

T-9 Saturday 200 Showings 385 +49 31834
0.756 Indiana Jones T-9 14.05M
0.362 AtSV T-9 13.55M

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Emagine Entertainment

T-3 Monday	7 Showings	337	+24	1603
T-4 Tuesday	199 Showings	1393	+293	29722

0.627

AtSV T-4

10.87M

T-5 Wednesday

291 Showings

446

+82

40851

T-6 Thursday

243 Showings

256

+38

36344

T-7 Friday

208 Showings

493

+90

33632

0.460	Indiana Jones T-7	7.73M
0.213	AtSV T-7	7.33M

T-8 Saturday

203 Showings

505

+120

33050

0.900	Indiana Jones T-8	16.73M
0.403	AtSV T-8	15.06M

Porthos · July 7, 2023

15 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Also worth pointing out, however, due to the Tuesday release, that this period of days was over the week, rather than over the weekend for Indy. That surely boosts MI7 a bit over it. So we have to take that into account too

Yep. At the same time might mess with the T-3 comp on Sat since as you note that's traditionally a slower day for pre-sales (as seen by the T-5 comps for the films released on Thur).

Then again, Sun/Mon showings might alleviate that somewhat as people get their tickets for those days.

Tue release is somewhat uncharted waters, really. And not just because of Discount Tuesday mucking with the comps (which folks casually glancing at charts might not be taking into account).

Speaking of which, probably depend on just on the percentage of my local sales do indeed qualify for Discount Tuesday purchases as well as the PLF/EA sales percentage, but I'm probably gonna knock off 1m to 1.5m off the comp as an ad-hoc adjustment when all is said and done.

Just something to keep in mind when looking at my charts.

Inceptionzq · July 7, 2023

On 7/6/2023 at 3:36 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 442 1008 43.85%
AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 286 1165 24.55%

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1338 67 9271 14.43% 13 46

1.796 Indiana Jones T-14 12.93M

Oppenheimer Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

457

1008

45.34%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

301

1165

25.84%

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1402	64	9174	15.28%	13	46

1.809

Indiana Jones T-14

13.03M

Inceptionzq · July 7, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Alamo Drafthouse

T-14 Thursday 83 Showings 4196 +161 12329 ATP: 17.22
0.909 Indiana Jones T-14
6.54M

T-15 Friday 134 Showings 4374 +226 19811 ATP: 16.32
1.088 Indiana Jones T-15 18.27M

T-16 Saturday 132 Showings 5363 +275 20221 ATP: 16.60
1.379 Indiana Jones T-16 25.63M

T-17 Sunday 123 Showings 3328 +214 19354 ATP: 16.65
1.595 Indiana Jones T-17 28.88M

Oppenheimer Alamo Drafthouse

T-13 Thursday

83 Showings

4359

+163

12329

ATP:

17.18

0.916

Indiana Jones T-13

6.59M

T-14 Friday

134 Showings

4651

+277

20034

ATP:

16.27

1.123

Indiana Jones T-14

18.87M

T-15 Saturday

132 Showings

5685

+322

20221

ATP:

16.53

1.418

Indiana Jones T-15

26.35M

T-16 Sunday

124 Showings

3569

+241

19401

ATP:

16.58

1.639

Indiana Jones T-16

29.67M

Inceptionzq · July 7, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Emagine Entertainment

T-14 Thursday 77 Showings 867 +56 11965
0.943 Indiana Jones T-14 6.79M

T-15 Friday 139 Showings 823 +76 19456
1.636 Indiana Jones T-15 27.49M

T-16 Saturday 139 Showings 546 +36 19453
2.060 Indiana Jones T-16 38.28M

T-17 Sunday 135 Showings 288 +38 18979
2.420 Indiana Jones T-17 43.81M

Oppenheimer Emagine Entertainment

T-13 Thursday

79 Showings

956

+89

12781

T-14 Friday

142 Showings

936

+113

20681

T-15 Saturday

142 Showings

618

+72

20670

T-16 Sunday

138 Showings

335

+47

20196

Inceptionzq · July 7, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Barbie Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 183 839 21.81%
AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 190 789 24.08%

Wednesday: 809(+25)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1061 120 11275 9.41% 13 71

1.199 AtSV T-14 20.80M
0.765 Avatar 2 T-14 13.00M

Barbie Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

203

835

24.31%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

212

789

26.87%

Wednesday: 832(+23)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1180	119	11068	10.66%	13	71

Inceptionzq · July 7, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Barbie Alamo Drafthouse

T-13 Wednesday 15 Showings 1906 +0 1914 ATP: 19.63
T-14 Thursday 142 Showings 10864 +222 18131 ATP: 16.22
0.798 Doctor Strange 2 T-14 28.74M

T-15 Friday 193 Showings 12099 +512 25443 ATP: 15.07
0.867 Doctor Strange 2 T-15 47.47M

T-16 Saturday 195 Showings 12955 +523 26493 ATP: 14.69
0.896 Doctor Strange 2 T-16 51.79M

T-17 Sunday 182 Showings 9489 +474 24134 ATP: 14.59
1.379 Doctor Strange 2 T-17 53.62M

Barbie Alamo Drafthouse

T-12 Wednesday	15 Showings	1905	-1	1914	ATP:	19.63
T-13 Thursday	147 Showings	11489	+625	19173	ATP:	16.15

T-14 Friday

203 Showings

12682

+583

27308

ATP:

14.99

T-15 Saturday

204 Showings

13577

+622

27920

ATP:

14.64

T-16 Sunday

193 Showings

9957

+468

25776

ATP:

14.53

Inceptionzq · July 7, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Barbie Emagine Entertainment

T-13 Wednesday 4 Showings 457 +3 518
T-14 Thursday 89 Showings 1614 +119 10958

T-15 Friday 128 Showings 2115 +349 16945

T-16 Saturday 129 Showings 929 +116 17025

T-17 Sunday 134 Showings 342 +39 17236

Barbie Emagine Entertainment

T-12 Wednesday	4 Showings	461	+4	518
T-13 Thursday	94 Showings	1784	+170	11562

T-14 Friday

132 Showings

2375

+260

17455

T-15 Saturday

133 Showings

1068

+139

17532

T-16 Sunday

138 Showings

449

+107

17480

Porthos · July 7, 2023

11 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 457 1008 45.34%
AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 301 1165 25.84%

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1402 64 9174 15.28% 13 46

1.809 Indiana Jones T-14 13.03M

(saving the "Let Reddit know" jokes for once)

This is actually a little interesting. I've been presuming that Sacto was over-performing more than a bit due to the 70m prints we have here. But it looks at a casual glance that it's doing really well in Denver as well, and as far as I know it doesn't have a 70mm print anywhere in the area.

So what's the spread like locally? Presume it's extremely PLF heavy and I see that about half the sales are at the two AMCs you usually highlight. So what's your sense of how it's doing compared to similar films in your market?

Edited July 7, 2023 by Porthos

Inceptionzq · July 7, 2023

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

(saving the "Let Reddit know" jokes for once)

This is actually a little interesting. I've been presuming that Sacto was over-performing more than a bit due to the 70m prints we have here. But it looks at a casual glance that it's doing really well in Denver as well, and as far as I know it doesn't have a 70mm print anywhere in the area.

So what's the spread like locally? Presume it's extremely PLF heavy and I see that about half the sales are at the two AMCs you usually highlight. So what's your sense of how it's doing compared to similar films in your market?

Two of the theaters I track actually do have 70mm prints, AMC Westminster 24 and Regal Colorado Mills 24.

It is, unsurprisingly, very PLF heavy. 91.2% to be exact including the 70mm showings. The most similar film might be Dune with how it's performing. Dune performed very well and over indexed in Denver. Comping it gives a value of 8.2M, which is probably still gonna be too high. All I truly know is that it's a unique movie that makes it hard to compare to other movies, at least in Denver, but no doubt that it's doing very well.

TheFlatLannister · July 7, 2023

On 7/6/2023 at 6:31 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

OPPENHEIMER

THURSDAY previews

T-14

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

96

1408

17427

8.1%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

57

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

1

COMPS

T-14

(0.981x) of Fast X

~$7.4M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

OPPENHEIMER

THURSDAY previews

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
96	1454	17427	8.3%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

46

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

1

COMPS

T-13

(1.006x) of Fast X

~$7.5M THUR Previews

TheFlatLannister · July 7, 2023

On 7/6/2023 at 6:48 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

HAUNTED MANSION

THURSDAY

T-21

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

111

1035

19452

5.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

28

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-21

(0.517x) of TLM

~$5.3M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

HAUNTED MANSION

THURSDAY

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
111	1049	19452	5.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

14

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-20

(0.516x) of TLM

~$5.3M THUR Previews

TheFlatLannister · July 7, 2023

On 7/6/2023 at 6:46 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

Barbie

Thursday

T-15

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

177

2859

31835

9.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

203

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

1

EA

T-14

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

9

1415

1747

80.9%

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

6

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

6

COMPS

T-15

*Excludes any EA

(2.219x) of RoTB

~$19.5M THUR Previews

(1.992x) of Fast X

~$14.9M THUR Previews

(0.889x) of ATSV

~$15.4M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $16.6M THUR Previews

IF this pace continues, I could see comps near $20M by T-4

FYI, the above comps doesn't factor in any EA

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

Barbie

Thursday

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
180	2946	32369	9.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

87

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

SELLOUTS

1

EA

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1423	1747	81.4%

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

8

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

6

COMPS

T-14

*Excludes any EA

(2.161x) of RoTB

~$19.0M THUR Previews

(2.037) of Fast X

~$15.3M THUR Previews

(0.883x) of ATSV

~$15.3M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $16.5M THUR Previews

Even on slower days, it's pacing way better than most recent films i've tracked

rehpyc · July 8, 2023

T-6 MI7

JWD: 6.06M

JW4: 8.19M

AtSV: 7.43M

FX: 8.18M

Flash: 6.16M

IJ: 5.71M

rehpyc · July 8, 2023

T-5 MI7

JWD: 6.39M

JW4: 8.51M

AtSV: 7.78M

FX: 8.73M

Flash: 6.69M

IJ: 6.13M

All comps short of JW4 were running flat (JW4 was on the down) from T-15 to T-7, at which point each has been on the up-n-up.

emoviefan · July 8, 2023

1 minute ago, rehpyc said:

T-5 MI7

JWD: 6.39M

JW4: 8.51M

AtSV: 7.78M

FX: 8.73M

Flash: 6.69M

IJ: 6.13M

All comps short of JW4 were running flat (JW4 was on the down) from T-15 to T-7, at which point each has been on the up-n-up.

Just as nature intended.

TheFlatLannister · July 8, 2023

On 7/6/2023 at 6:38 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

Tuesday

T-5

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

221

1702

45215

3.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

101

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

9

SELLOUTS

1

EA

T-4

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

11

675

2148

31.4%

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

34

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

Mi7 Walmart+ Special

MTC1 = 61 sold / 291 seats (+6)

MTC2 = 48 sold / 114 seats (+9)

COMPS

T-5

*Excludes any EA

(0.856x) of RoTB

~$7.5M TUES

(0.885x) of FAST X

~$6.6M TUES

COMP AVG: $7.1M TUES

*NOT ADJUSTED DOWN FOR TUESDAY DISCOUNT

Not really ramping up like I anticipated. Walmart+ special is definitely doing better now @Porthos

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

Tuesday

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	1849	45746	4.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

147

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

SELLOUTS

1

EA

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	679	2148	31.6%

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

Mi7 Walmart+ Special

MTC1 = 77 sold / 291 seats (+16)

MTC2 = 61 sold / 114 seats (+13)

COMPS

T-4

*Excludes any EA

(0.844x) of RoTB

~$7.4M TUES

(0.918x) of FAST X

~$6.9M TUES

COMP AVG: $7.15M TUES

*NOT ADJUSTED DOWN FOR TUESDAY DISCOUNT

My script was skipping showings so this update is coming in a lot later than I would have liked.

Walmart+ Sunday showings are definitely doing better. Sales ramping up a bit, but I'm still not seeing much signs of a breakout

emoviefan · July 8, 2023

20 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

Tuesday

T-4

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

224

1849

45746

4.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

147

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

SELLOUTS

1

EA

T-3

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

11

679

2148

31.6%

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

Mi7 Walmart+ Special

MTC1 = 77 sold / 291 seats (+16)

MTC2 = 61 sold / 114 seats (+13)

COMPS

T-4

*Excludes any EA

(0.844x) of RoTB

~$7.4M TUES

(0.918x) of FAST X

~$6.9M TUES

COMP AVG: $7.15M TUES

*NOT ADJUSTED DOWN FOR TUESDAY DISCOUNT

My script was skipping showings so this update is coming in a lot later than I would have liked.

Walmart+ Sunday showings are definitely doing better. Sales ramping up a bit, but I'm still not seeing much signs of a breakout

Just gonna go with Orlando not being a big area for this for whatever reason.

TheFlatLannister · July 8, 2023

6 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Just gonna go with Orlando not being a big area for this for whatever reason.

comp avg is very similar to other trackers. The pace here just isn't spectacular

Porthos avg is $8M

Rehpyc avg is $7.4M

Katniss avg is $7.9M

T-4 Monday	7 Showings	313	+41	1602
T-5 Tuesday	197 Showings	1100	+163	28906

T-13 Wednesday	15 Showings	1906	+0	1914	ATP:	19.63
T-14 Thursday	142 Showings	10864	+222	18131	ATP:	16.22

T-13 Wednesday	4 Showings	457	+3	518
T-14 Thursday	89 Showings	1614	+119	10958

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