The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[SpiderByte]

31 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Who cares, no one has peacock 

FNAF $100M OW trust the process

You understand this would make it one of the biggest opening weekends for a horror movie of all time? A PG-13 hybrid release?

[TheFlatLannister]

17 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
191	1520	33987	4.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

296

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.327x) of The Flash

~$3.17M THUR Previews 

 

(0.512x) of Fast X

~$3.84M THUR Previews

 

(0.404x) of RoTB 

~$3.55M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.52M previews 

 

Good day, nice review bump. Sticking with $3.5M previews 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
191	1908	33987	5.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

388

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(0.334x) of The Flash

~$3.24M THUR Previews 

 

(0.496x) of Fast X

~$3.72M THUR Previews

 

(0.420x) of RoTB 

~$3.69M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.55M previews 

 

Officially going with $3.5M previews +/- $0.5M

[vafrow]

10 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Blue Beetle, T-1, southern Ontario

 

Great growth today. Sales at 1161, for 408 new sales, giving a 54% increase. My hope was for above 40%. This gives good hope for walkups. Note, I won't be able to measure walk ups for a wide region. If I can, I'll do my local theatre.

 

Sales did not go up much at my local, so unadjusted comps are trending down.

 

0.307x Flash for $3.0M

0.697x T:ROTB for $6.1M

 

Adjusted comps give a range of $2.4M to $5.0M.

 

Between the two comps, Transformers had great walkups and Flash had mediocre walk ups, so I can see the final results falling in between, with a $3.5 M to $4M preview range.

 

Managed to do an afternoon update before the early shows start.

 

Walk ups so far of 568, bringing total up 1729. I have no comps for this on a regional basis, but, that's a 49% walk up rate by mid afternoon. That's almost what Flash got locally for me over the full day.

 

And looking at the Orlando update, it looks like southern Ontario managed to overtake Orlando region for sales per showtime.

Edited August 17, 2023 by vafrow

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Current weekend numbers for Blue Beetle at my ex-theater (with the caveat, as always, that this is a walk-up heavy theater, or at least was when I worked there): 

 

August 17: IMAX has currently sold 37 seats out of 861 seats over three showings. Dolby has sold 25 out of 429 seats over three showings. Traditional 2D has sold 25 seats out of 157 seats over two showings.

 

August 18: IMAX has currently sold 31 seats out of 1156 seats over four showings. Dolby has sold 35 seats out of 429 seats over three showings. Traditional 2D has sold 33 seats out of 600 seats over four showings.

 

August 19: IMAX has currently sold 26 seats out of 1156 seats over four showings. Dolby has sold 20 seats out of 429 seats over three showings. Traditional 2D has sold 41 seats out of 600 seats over four showings.

 

August 20th:  IMAX has currently sold 10 seats out of 1445 seats over five showings. Dolby has sold 6 seats out of 429 seats over three showings. Traditional 2D has sold 20 seats out of 600 seats over four showings.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Current weekend numbers for Strays at my ex-theater (with the caveat, as always, that this is a walk-up heavy theater, or at least was when I worked there): 

 

August 17: Traditional 2D has sold 43 seats out of 250 seats over four showings.

 

August 18: Traditional 2D has sold 31 seats out of 295 seats over four showings.

 

August 19: Traditional 2D has sold 29 seats out of 460 seats over five showings.

 

August 20: Traditional 2D has sold 14 seats out of 368 seats over four showings.

[Eric Prime]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-a-haunting-in-venice/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 8/17/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
8/25/2023	Golda					Fathom Events
8/25/2023	Gran Turismo (Sneaks on 8/11 and 8/18 weekends)	$17,000,000 – $22,000,000		$40,000,000 – $61,000,000		Sony Pictures
8/25/2023	The Hill					Briarcliff Entertainment
8/25/2023	Retribution					Roadside Attractions
9/1/2023	The Equalizer 3	$25,000,000 – $32,000,000		$65,000,000 – $88,000,000		Sony / Columbia Pictures
9/8/2023	My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000		$24,000,000 – $43,000,000		Focus Features
9/8/2023	The Nun II	$30,000,000 – $45,000,000		$70,000,000 – $97,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures
9/15/2023	A Haunting in Venice	$11,000,000 – $16,000,000		$37,000,000 – $57,000,000		Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/15/2023	Amerikatsi					Variance Films / Everest Films
9/15/2023	Camp Hideout					Roadside Attractions
9/15/2023	Dumb Money (Platform LA / NY)					Sony Pictures / Columbia

[Eric Prime]

https://deadline.com/2023/08/the-equalizer-3-box-office-projection-1235521751/

 

Quote

Low end forecasts have Sony’s Denzel Washington starring, Antoine Fuqua-directed action threequel, The Equalizer 3 at $30M+ over 4-days.

 

Some box office sources even think the sequel, which was shot in Italy, has a shot at $40M and that’s because of The Equalizer 3‘s big first choice numbers with guys over 25. Even Women over 25 is solid. The one pause is that the nine-year-old franchise’s audience is getting older, and that demo as we all know has a gradual pace to cinemas.

 

[el sid]

Blue Beetle counted today for Friday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 292 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 124 (16 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 26 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 11 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 26 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 162 (8 showtimes) 
LA (AMC Universal): 159 (9 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 800.
 

Up 58% since Monday. That's not too bad but at this low level also not really impressive.
Comps (all films counted on Thursday for Friday): TSS (8M true Friday; day and date release) had 1.560 sold tickets,
The Batman (39.4M) had 7.284,
Morbius (11.6M) had 1.884,
Thor 4 (40.5M) had 6.946,
SC (20.8M) had 3.740,
Eternals (21.2M) had 4.090,
GotG 3 (30.7M) had 4.484,
Wakanda Forever (56.3M) had 8.736
and The Flash (14.4M) had 2.794 sold tickets.
 

I doubt that it can reach 30-35M OW with these Friday numbers. Maybe the walk-ups are really good. It's not my genre and living in Europe it's hard to judge if it's an anticipated film in the US.
I say 25M OW.
 

By the way, my old way to get access is still dead. Now I use Firefox. But I needed a lot of patience. E.g. the eye count doesn't work anymore where I'm normally pretty fast because I don't see the entire page (I can scroll but this takes as long as the ...unavailable system). Always problems .

[ChipDerby]

I can not believe they roped Denzel into doing a trilogy.

[TheFlatLannister]

20 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
144	414	25986	1.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

48

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.992x) of Asteroid City

~$1.01M THUR Previews

 

(1.027x) of Boogeyman

~$1.13M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.07M

 

As of right now, I'll go with $900k-$1.1M previews 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
144	576	25986	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:30PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

162

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(1.043x) of Asteroid City

~$1.15M THUR Previews

 

(1.249x) of Boogeyman

~$1.37M THUR Previews

 

(0.165x) of Haunted Mansion

~$513k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.01M

 

I'll officially go with $900k-$1M +/- 0.5M

Edited August 17, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[HummingLemon]

So the general range for Blue Beetle OW right now seems to be $25-35M although I am more strongly leaning on the $25-30M range than the $30-35M range

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Blue Beetle (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	113	102	461	17597	2.62

 

Comp:

1.11x Haunted Mansion- $3.44 Million (yeah yeah I know, bad comp, but it's the best I got)

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	28.41
3-Day:	95.34

 

Growth Rates for other movies I tracked (1-day, 3-day):

 

Haunted Mansion- 47%, 115%

Barbie- 25%, 94%

Indiana Jones- 15%, 65%

Mission Impossible- 28%, 69%

 

Ramping up better than the large blockbusters but I was expecting better growth rates since the starting point is lower. 

 

Strays (T-1):

Day: T-1, T-0	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters	54	32	84	5329	1.58
Wednesday EA: 14 theaters	14	45	107	1499	7.14
TOTALS:	68	77	191	6828	2.8

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	61.54
3-Day:	127.03

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses, ALL growth rates are just for Thursday, no EA included):

 

0.69x Joy Ride w/ EA: $756k (38%, 130%)

0.65x No Hard Feelings (Just Thursday): $1.39 Million (15%, 110%)

 

Decent T-1 update but NHF blew up on its last day as we know, and Joy Ride didn't, so it's all about that. Still looking at around $1 Million right now, this late burst gives me some hope for better.

 

I will be able to give a T-1 hour update for this, but I'm pretty sure I won't be able to do it for Blue Beetle. Damn these early preview times!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Blue Beetle (T-1 hour):

Day: T-1 hour	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	113	330	791	17597	4.5

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	71.58
3-Day:	162.79

 

Very good final update! Review bump and walk-ups seem strong.

 

Strays (T-1 hour):

Day: T-1 hour	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters	54	136	220	5329	4.13

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	161.9
3-Day:	340

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

 

0.94x Joy Ride: $1.04 Million (55%, 227%)

0.63x No Hard Feelings (Just Thursday): $1.36 Million (112%, 203% --> the reason for the discrepancy is I track more theaters now, and a lot of Strays' growth happened in those theaters. In like for like theaters, which is what I do in the comps, Strays' one-day growth is slightly less than NHF)

 

Very good final day, with an awesome growth rate which is exactly what this film needed. Gonna go more ambitious based on my numbers and go with a $1.25 Million, +/- $0.1M prediction.

Edited August 17, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Gran Turismo (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	54	43	43	10123	0.42

 

Pretty low but useless to comp right now because of the 800 or so EA days. On Sunday I'll start comping, as well as tracking Equalizer.

Edited August 17, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blue Beetle	T-0	Jax	5	55	89	294	7,933	3.71%
		Phx	6	52	96	311	9,482	3.28%
		Ral	8	42	80	359	5,943	6.04%
	Total		19	149	265	964	23,358	4.13%
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-1	Jax	4	4	9	19	821	2.31%
		Phx	4	4	4	9	544	1.65%
		Ral	2	2	6	30	155	19.35%
	Total		10	10	19	58	1,520	3.82%
	T-2	Jax	4	8	5	36	1,642	2.19%
		Phx	4	8	6	36	1,098	3.28%
		Ral	2	4	2	18	310	5.81%
	Total		10	20	13	90	3,050	2.95%
	T-3	Jax	4	5	1	9	712	1.26%
		Phx	4	5	2	7	670	1.04%
		Ral	2	2	5	15	155	9.68%
	Total		10	12	8	31	1,537	2.02%
Strays	T-0	Jax	6	21	14	72	2,430	2.96%
		Phx	6	25	28	80	3,163	2.53%
		Ral	7	26	33	76	3,227	2.36%
	Total		19	72	75	228	8,820	2.59%

 

*Switching to previews only comps

 

Strays (Thu) T-0 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.824x (912k)

 - Joy Ride - 2.17x (1.95m)

 - 80 for Brady - .781x (586k)

 - Cocaine Bear - .384x (769k)

 - Violent Night - .857x (943k) 

 - Turtles - .201x (772k)

 - Magic Mike 3 - .598x (598k)

 

Size adjusted average - 940k

Growth model forecast - 1.03m

 

Strays (previews) pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Strays	121.36%	32.04%	20.00%	49.02%
Easter Sunday	95.31%	28.13%	34.78%	17.92%
Joy Ride	90.91%	20.00%	31.82%	36.36%
80 for Brady	85.99%	26.75%	20.87%	28.63%
Cocaine Bear	144.03%	32.92%	9.82%	41.87%
Violent Night	133.33%			40.00%
Turtles	111.73%	34.45%	25.57%	54.69%
Magic Mike 3	70.85%			15.11%

 

 

Joy Ride EA had nearly double the sales as it had for preview sales at T-0 morning.  Strays is the opposite, with previews doubling EA sales.  Looking at all my comedy comps, only Joy Ride (1.95m) and Hitman's Wifes Bodyguard (1.06m) comp over 1m, with most coming in between 550k and 600k.  That being said, most of those movies were a lot larger.  I don't think EA total will be very high, maybe 150k.  Unless today really picks up, we could be closer to 900k total than 1m.

 

Blue Beetle T-0 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.63x (3.25m)

 - Bullet Train - .923x (3.09m)

 - Turtles - .85x (3.26m)

 - Suicide Squad - .761x (3.12m)

 - Shazam 2 - .77x (2.61m)

 - Black Adam - .344x (2.61m)

 - Flash - .267x (2.59m)

 - Morbius - .43x (2.45m)

 - Snake Eyes - 2.33x (3.26m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.02m

Growth model forecast - 2.99m

 

Blue Beetle pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Blue Beetle	125.23%	28.74%	32.13%	37.91%
Cocaine Bear	144.03%	32.92%	9.82%	41.87%
Bullet Train	140.55%	26.50%	24.45%	40.89%
Turtles	111.73%	34.45%	25.57%	54.69%
Suicide Squad	105.35%	31.12%	25.65%	32.25%
Shazam 2	95.79%	19.31%	10.04%	51.08%
Black Adam				22.82%
Flash	79.49%	20.31%	17.99%	29.99%
Morbius	99.91%	25.25%	21.00%	29.46%
Snake Eyes	150.91%	42.42%	50.53%	32.69%

 

It felt like a good review bump today, but the chart tells a different story.  It's keeping track with non-CBM movies, but it did increase against the bottom four and Suicide Squad.  I'm intrigued by the other regions forecasting up to 4m because I just don't see it.  Sticking with 3m.

 

Finally, I took a look at Back on the Strip today.  It has sold 9 tickets in 24 shows in my regions.  That's the third lowest that I've tracked, just ahead of Sweetwater (8) and Joe Bell (6).  

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blue Beetle	1-Hr	Jax	5	55	141	435	7,933	5.48%
		Phx	6	52	45	356	9,482	3.75%
		Ral	8	42	185	544	5,943	9.15%
	Total		19	149	371	1,335	23,358	5.72%
Strays	1-Hr	Jax	6	21	56	128	2,430	5.27%
		Phx	6	25	10	90	3,163	2.85%
		Ral	7	26	55	131	3,227	4.06%
	Total		19	72	121	349	8,820	3.96%

 

Strays (Thu) T-1 hr comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.154x (1.08m)

 - Joy Ride - 1.74x (1.56m)

 - 80 for Brady - missed

 - Cocaine Bear - missed

 - Violent Night - .825x (908k) 

 - Turtles - .223x (857k)

 - Magic Mike 3 - .735x (735k)

All comedies - 831k

All R movies - 790k

All movies - 747k

 

Size adjusted average - 1.02m

Growth model forecast - 1.06m

 

Strays (previews) pace chart

Movie	Tue-Final	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Strays	198.29%	36.75%	24.32%	53.07%
Easter Sunday	80.00%	45.56%	40.82%	29.60%
Joy Ride	272.22%	16.67%	20.00%	91.43%
80 for Brady		30.39%	33.33%
Violent Night	176.47%	32.68%	19.42%	59.02%
Turtles	166.50%	34.35%	23.83%	37.82%
Magic Mike 3	76.58%	39.41%	39.26%	24.67%

 

Not a horrible final day.  Assuming around 150k for EA, I think a total around 1m is pretty safe.

 

Blue Beetle T-1 hr comps

 - Cocaine Bear - missed

 - Bullet Train - .898x (3.01m)

 - Turtles - .852x (3.28m)

 - Suicide Squad - .682x (2.8m)

 - Shazam 2 - missed

 - Black Adam - .351x (2.67m)

 - Flash - .274x (2.66m)

 - Morbius - .45x (2.58m)

 - Snake Eyes - 1.94x (2.72m)

All CBM - 2.44m

All PG-13 movies - 2.73m

All 2pm previews - 2.81m

All movies - 2.86m

 

Size adjusted average - 2.87m

Growth model forecast - 2.93m

 

Blue Beetle pace chart:

Movie	Tue-Final	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Blue Beetle	150.47%	36.59%	34.62%	38.49%
Bullet Train	183.24%	36.19%	27.46%	42.43%
Turtles	166.50%	34.35%	23.83%	37.82%
Suicide Squad	168.22%	35.21%	27.70%	54.54%
Shazam 2		23.36%	11.13%
Black Adam	104.25%	30.95%	23.27%	35.56%
Flash	111.57%	26.53%	17.05%	34.89%
Morbius	108.04%	36.88%	18.10%	31.64%
Snake Eyes	200.00%	52.84%	46.30%	65.94%

 

Well, I can't say I'm too surprised.  It's not a bad day overall, but it just kept pace with most of the comps, which means not really any change in projection.  I've been on 3m for quite a while now and I'd wager on the under at this point.  But for sake of DC, maybe they'll find a way to get it to 3m.

Edited August 17, 2023 by katnisscinnaplex

[HummingLemon]

Why is Katniss's area tracking for $3M but the other ones on this thread are tracking for $3.5-4M? Are the other regions over-indexing? Or is Katniss's underindexing?

[keysersoze123]

Unfortunately my internet cable got cut by a local contractor and so no more updates from my end

[vafrow]

14 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

Why is Katniss's area tracking for $3M but the other ones on this thread are tracking for $3.5-4M? Are the other regions over-indexing? Or is Katniss's underindexing?

Only way to know that is to round up a DeLorean and 1.21 gigawatts of power.

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

THE EQUALIZER 3

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	170	29254	0.58%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

35

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(0.168x) of Mi7 (TUES ONLY)

~$1.18M THUR Previews

 

(0.126x) of Oppenheimer

~$1.32M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.25M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

THE EQUALIZER 3

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	179	29254	0.61%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(0.173x) of Mi7 (TUES ONLY)

~$1.21M THUR Previews

 

(0.125x) of Fast X

~$936k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.07M

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Gran Turismo 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
166	268	30548	0.87%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.151x) of Fast X

~$1.13M THUR Previews

 

(0.175x) of Mi7 (TUES Only)

~$1.22M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.18M

 

[misterpepp]

Additional re-expansions/re-releases coming for the weekend of National Cinema Day (Aug 25-27):

 

-Asteroid City, Dungeons & Dragons, Super Mario Bros., and Transformers: RotB will all be returning/re-expanding (will vary by location)

 

-The Little Mermaid '23 returns with a Sing-Along version