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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

By Shawn Robbins, in Box Office Discussion

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Posted by katnisscinnaplex,

Presales Tracking Information   I guess this is as good of a time as any to share this sheet I've been putting together for the past few weeks.  It's a table of movies from the past few years with relevant pre-sales information (release date, sales date, sales window, previews gross, etc.)  @datpepper and I will try to keep it updated when ticket sales dates are announced for upcoming films to make those easier to find.     There are a few gaps in the sheet where I couldn't f

Pre Sale Data Google Doc

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Posted by XXRDJisDoctorDoom,

I’m sure I’ve done enough “reminding” at this point that this is the tracking thread and not a discussion thread. Take your predictions and commentary elsewhere. No more warnings on this subject.
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Posted by ZeeSoh,

Moderation: Moved some posts to the Wild Robot thread. For reasons please avoid mentioning or linking BOP in the tracking thread. 
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Hilts Indie Sensation

Hilts

Posted
Posted
On 9/28/2023 at 7:56 PM, Hilts said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour OK
 
Friday - showings starting 6pm
 
Day Theatres Showings Sellouts Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold
T-19 20 163 0 38 11,339 28,984 39.12%
T-18 20 163 0 49 11,388 28,984 39.29%
T-17 20 163 0 76 11,464 28,984 39.55%
T-16 20 163 0 68 11,532 28,984 39.79%
T-15 20 163 0 47 11,579 28,984 39.95%
 
T-0 Comps Raw ATP adj*
Barbie 1.171x = $24.71m $37.07m
Oppenheimer 2.378x = $24.97m $37.46m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 3.839x = $27.64m $41.46m
   
T-15 Comp Raw ATP adj*
Barbie (EA) 20.386x = $22.42m $33.64m

 

*+50%

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour OK
 
Friday - showings starting 6pm
 
Day Theatres Showings Sellouts Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold
T-18 20 163 0 49 11,388 28,984 39.29%
T-17 20 163 0 76 11,464 28,984 39.55%
T-16 20 163 0 68 11,532 28,984 39.79%
T-15 20 163 0 47 11,579 28,984 39.95%
T-14 20 163 0 76 11,655 28,984 40.21%
 
T-0 Comps Raw ATP adj*
Barbie 1.179x = $24.87m $37.31m
Oppenheimer 2.394x = $25.13m $37.70m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 3.864x = $27.82m $41.74m
   
T-14 Comp Raw ATP adj*
Barbie (EA) 20.130x = $22.14m $33.21m

 

*+50%

 

Another better day.

2 weeks out and just hit 40% capacity. Barbie was at 33.5% at T-0.

Barbie EA was at 74% at T-14 so that comp should not drop much lower.

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Hilts Indie Sensation

Hilts

Posted
Posted
On 9/28/2023 at 8:24 PM, Hilts said:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm
 
Day Theatres Showings Sellouts Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold
T-24 18 73 0 295 295 13,304 2.22%
T-23 20 80 0 198 493 15,114 3.26%
T-22 20 80 0 150 643 15,114 4.25%
T-21 20 80 0 83 726 15,114 4.80%

 

MTC1: 359/5,897 - 6.1% sold

MTC2: 105/3,132 - 3.4% sold

MTC3: 199/3,798 - 5.2% sold

Other: 63/2,287 - 2.8% sold (Flix Brewhouse is the majority here, as is usual outside the top 3)

 

Comps
Oppenheimer 1.092x = $11.46m
Barbie 0.673x = $14.95m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 2.180x = $19.19m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 1.065x = $7.66m
Sound of Freedom 1.380x = $7.18m
Asteroid City 15.783x = $17.36m

 

Still going strong. I don't usually look at the MTC breakdown but it does not seem abnormal as MTC1 is the dominant one here with the most theatres I track and MTC2 is generally pretty slow at start of presales. Normally this many tickets at T-0 would indicate ~$3m previews already so you can see how much this is over-indexing in my region. Will probably be pretty useless for future comps unfortunately so just tracking for fun now to see where it gets.

 

Killers of the Flower Moon OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm
 
Day Theatres Showings Sellouts Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold
T-24 18 73 0 295 295 13,304 2.22%
T-23 20 80 0 198 493 15,114 3.26%
T-22 20 80 0 150 643 15,114 4.25%
T-21 20 80 0 83 726 15,114 4.80%
T-20 21 82 0 116 842 15,266 5.52%
 
Comps
Oppenheimer 1.220x = $12.81m
Barbie 0.739x = $16.40m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 2.239x = $19.71m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 1.173x = $8.44m
Sound of Freedom 1.401x = $7.29m
Asteroid City 16.840x = $18.52m

 

Keeps going! Still outpacing every comp I have. Might have to throw in TET soon lol.

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 9/28/2023 at 3:22 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 2112 2657 79.49%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 2036 2741 74.28%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
10516 36 22056 47.68% 13 146

 

1.469 Doctor Strange MoM T-15 52.89M
1.020 Barbie T-0 22.74M
0.684 Doctor Strange MoM T-0 24.64M
0.454 NWH T-0 22.70M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 2112 2657 79.49%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 2040 2741 74.43%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
10559 43 22056 47.87% 13 146

 

1.450 Doctor Strange MoM T-14 52.19M
1.024 Barbie T-0 22.83M
0.687 Doctor Strange MoM T-0 24.74M
0.456 NWH T-0 22.80M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 9/28/2023 at 3:24 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-15 Friday 100 Showings 10293 +81 15745 ATP: 22.36
0.651 Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-15 23.44M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-15 34.86M
0.318 Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0 11.44M
0.265 NWH Thurs T-0 13.26M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0 17.02M
  Adjusted NWH Thurs T-0 19.72M

 

T-16 Saturday 183 Showings 13674 +108 27311 ATP: 22.11
1.008 Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-16 55.15M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-16 83.23M
0.368 Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0 20.12M
0.320 NWH Fri T-0 23.06M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0 30.36M
  Adjusted NWH Fri T-0 34.81M

 

T-17 Sunday 161 Showings 10841 +116 23960 ATP: 21.96
0.767 Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-17 44.36M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-17 68.64M
0.246 Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0 14.25M
0.216 NWH Sat T-0 15.94M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0 22.04M
  Adjusted NWH Sat T-0 24.66M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-14 Friday 100 Showings 10381 +88 15743 ATP: 22.37
0.649 Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-14 23.36M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-14 34.75M
0.321 Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0 11.54M
0.267 NWH Thurs T-0 13.37M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0 17.17M
  Adjusted NWH Thurs T-0 19.89M

 

T-15 Saturday 183 Showings 13818 +144 27309 ATP: 22.10
0.991 Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-15 54.21M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-15 81.80M
0.372 Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0 20.33M
0.324 NWH Fri T-0 23.30M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0 30.67M
  Adjusted NWH Fri T-0 35.16M

 

T-16 Sunday 161 Showings 10978 +137 23957 ATP: 21.95
0.759 Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-16 43.89M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-16 67.88M
0.250 Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0 14.43M
0.218 NWH Sat T-0 16.14M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0 22.31M
  Adjusted NWH Sat T-0 24.96M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 9/28/2023 at 3:25 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-15 Friday 127 Showings 9449 +101 19720
0.658 Barbie T-0 Thursday 14.68M

 

T-16 Saturday 234 Showings 6366 +97 36896
0.247 Barbie T-0 Friday 11.83M

 

T-17 Sunday 234 Showings 3774 +65 36301
0.159 Barbie T-0 Saturday 6.96M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-14 Friday 128 Showings 9528 +79 19770
0.664 Barbie T-0 Thursday 14.80M

 

T-15 Saturday 234 Showings 6436 +70 36896
0.250 Barbie T-0 Friday 11.96M

 

T-16 Sunday 232 Showings 3740 -34 35531
0.158 Barbie T-0 Saturday 6.89M

 

Sunday decreased because two showings either got removed or just aren't working today. Most likely the latter.

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TheFlatLannister Box Office Gold

TheFlatLannister

Posted
Posted
On 9/28/2023 at 6:50 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-22

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

136

374

22614

1.7%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

25

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-22

 

(0.328x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.45M THUR Previews

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

136

390

22614

1.7%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

16

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-21

 

(0.345x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.62M THUR Previews

 

Well, its still increasing against Oppy comp 

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TheFlatLannister Box Office Gold

TheFlatLannister

Posted
Posted
On 9/28/2023 at 6:42 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-7

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

149

655

26279

2.5%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

46

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-7

 

(4.925x) of Talk to me~$6.13M THUR Previews

(4.486x) of Boogeyman~$4.93M THUR Previews

(1.804x) of Nun II~$5.59M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $5.55M

 

Excellent day locally. Removed Haunted Mansion comp and replaced it with Talk to me

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-6

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

149

679

26279

2.6%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

24

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-6

 

(4.381x) of Talk to me~$5.45M THUR Previews

(4.409x) of Boogeyman~$4.85M THUR Previews

(1.598x) of Nun II~$4.95M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $5.08M

 

Very steep drop against all comps today 

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TheFlatLannister Box Office Gold

TheFlatLannister

Posted
Posted
On 9/28/2023 at 6:49 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-15

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

226

11389

43831

26.2%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

24

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

20

 

COMPS 

T-0


T-0 comps previews: 

(0.848x) of Barbie ~$17.90M FRIDAY for TET

(1.019x) of ATSV~$17.69M FRIDAY for TET

(1.700x) of TLM~$17.48M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.69M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $24.77M

 

T-15 comps

(2.213x) of GOTG3~$38.73M FRIDAY for TET

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $54.22M

 

Back to pre-bump levels. Still falling pretty fast against Guardians 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-14

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

226

11343

43831

26.2%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

20

 

COMPS 

T-0


T-0 comps previews: 

(0.845x) of Barbie ~$17.83M FRIDAY for TET

(1.015x) of ATSV~$17.61M FRIDAY for TET

(1.693x) of TLM~$17.44M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.63M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $24.68M

 

T-14 comps

(2.180x) of GOTG3~$38.14M FRIDAY for TET

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $53.40M

 

Ran the scraper twice. Looks like seats are disappearing again. Based on daily pace from multiple markets, I think this is going to be extremely presale heavy with minimal walkup growth, but i guess that's pretty obvious. 

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Eric Quinn Global Phenomenon

Eric Quinn

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

 

Yep. This is my guess as well. Also can't wait to watch stan Twitter explode comparing her film box office with Eras Tour.

I'm terrified of this seeping into BOT. Like Marvel vs. DC vs. Star Wars fights are already bad. The Swifties and Beyhive going after each other? I think we'd have to shut down the forum.

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XXRDJisDoctorDoom Global Phenomenon

XXRDJisDoctorDoom

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Eric the Creator said:

I'm terrified of this seeping into BOT. Like Marvel vs. DC vs. Star Wars fights are already bad. The Swifties and Beyhive going after each other? I think we'd have to shut down the forum.

 

My sweet, sweet prince. It's going to make Marvel vs DC vs Star Wars look like Bob Ross had a disagreement with Mr. Rogers. 

 

Fire Elmo GIF

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Isn't this forum mostly male dominated? I doubt there would be much stan wars over pop singers

We've had the occasional Stan Fight here.  Usually involving Lady Gaga, but there's been a couple of others.

 

(and what they lacked in numbers, they made up in sheer intensity)

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