The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

vale9001 · September 30, 2023

If It's opening on first december tickets should go to pre sales in around 2 weeks, if they want the eras tour same kinda of pre sales season (45 days).

I don't get why media ruined the moment so many weeks before. For this kinda of event a Surprise announcement and then you can buy tickets It's important to create a momentum.

Porthos · September 30, 2023

1 minute ago, vale9001 said:

I don't get why media ruined the moment so many weeks before. For this kinda of event a Surprise announcement and then you can buy tickets It's important to create a momentum.

Why should "the media" care about that film's 'momentum'?

Hilts · September 30, 2023

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

The Exorcist: Believer OK

Thursday - showings starting 5pm

Day Theatres Showings Sellouts Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold

T-10 20 74 0 9 100 15,606 0.64%

T-9 22 79 0 17 117 16,150 0.72%

T-8 22 80 0 7 124 16,341 0.76%

T-7 22 80 0 5 129 16,341 0.79%

T-6 22 80 0 10 139 16,341 0.85%

Comps

Haunted Mansion 0.460x = $1.43m

Strays 1.350x = $1.48m

A Haunting In Venice 1.675x = $2.01m

Talk To Me 4.344x = $5.41m

The Last Voyage of the Demeter 4.484x = $3.36m

Insidious: The Red Door 1.448x = $7.24m

The Nun II 1.527x = $4.74m

The Creator 0.908x = $1.45m

Saw X 1.580x = $3.16m

Aaand back to the grind. Still not entirely sure where this will settle. Longer window comps still pointing around $1.5m for now (including Creator now that's confirmed), should start to ramp up in a couple of days and I guess it's just a wait and see on how the horror comps eventually tally. Have a decent number in the genre now to feel more confident in prediction accuracy.

The Exorcist: Believer							OK

Thursday - showings starting 5pm

Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-9	22	79	0	17	117	16,150	0.72%
T-8	22	80	0	7	124	16,341	0.76%
T-7	22	80	0	5	129	16,341	0.79%
T-6	22	80	0	10	139	16,341	0.85%
T-5	22	80	0	22	161	16,341	0.99%

Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.497x	=	$1.54m
Strays					1.412x	=	$1.55m
A Haunting In Venice					1.548x	=	$1.86m
Talk To Me					3.500x	=	$4.36m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter					4.472x	=	$3.35m
Insidious: The Red Door					1.288x	=	$6.44m
The Nun II					1.594x	=	$4.94m
The Creator					0.958x	=	$1.53m
Saw X					1.578x	=	$3.16m

Best since day 1. Should ramp up from here finally.

Hilts · September 30, 2023

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour OK

Friday - showings starting 6pm

Day Theatres Showings Sellouts Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold

T-18 20 163 0 49 11,388 28,984 39.29%

T-17 20 163 0 76 11,464 28,984 39.55%

T-16 20 163 0 68 11,532 28,984 39.79%

T-15 20 163 0 47 11,579 28,984 39.95%

T-14 20 163 0 76 11,655 28,984 40.21%

T-0 Comps Raw ATP adj*

Barbie 1.179x = $24.87m $37.31m

Oppenheimer 2.394x = $25.13m $37.70m

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 3.864x = $27.82m $41.74m

T-14 Comp Raw ATP adj*

Barbie (EA) 20.130x = $22.14m $33.21m

*+50%

Another better day.

2 weeks out and just hit 40% capacity. Barbie was at 33.5% at T-0.

Barbie EA was at 74% at T-14 so that comp should not drop much lower.

Taylor Swift \| The Eras Tour							OK

Friday - showings starting 6pm

Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-17	20	163	0	76	11,464	28,984	39.55%
T-16	20	163	0	68	11,532	28,984	39.79%
T-15	20	163	0	47	11,579	28,984	39.95%
T-14	20	163	0	76	11,655	28,984	40.21%
T-13	20	163	0	65	11,720	28,984	40.44%

T-0 Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie				1.185x	=	$25.01m	$37.52m
Oppenheimer				2.407x	=	$25.27m	$37.91m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny				3.886x	=	$27.98m	$41.97m

*+50%

Hilts · September 30, 2023

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

Killers of the Flower Moon OK

Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm

Day Theatres Showings Sellouts Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold

T-24 18 73 0 295 295 13,304 2.22%

T-23 20 80 0 198 493 15,114 3.26%

T-22 20 80 0 150 643 15,114 4.25%

T-21 20 80 0 83 726 15,114 4.80%

T-20 21 82 0 116 842 15,266 5.52%

Comps

Oppenheimer 1.220x = $12.81m

Barbie 0.739x = $16.40m

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 2.239x = $19.71m

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 1.173x = $8.44m

Sound of Freedom 1.401x = $7.29m

Asteroid City 16.840x = $18.52m

Keeps going! Still outpacing every comp I have. Might have to throw in TET soon lol.

Killers of the Flower Moon							OK

Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm

Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-23	20	80	0	198	493	15,114	3.26%
T-22	20	80	0	150	643	15,114	4.25%
T-21	20	80	0	83	726	15,114	4.80%
T-20	21	82	0	116	842	15,266	5.52%
T-19	21	82	0	113	955	15,266	6.26%

Comps
Oppenheimer					1.321x	=	$13.87m
Barbie					0.768x	=	$17.06m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					2.258x	=	$19.87m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.282x	=	$9.23m
Sound of Freedom					1.417x	=	$7.37m
Asteroid City					17.685x	=	$19.45m

Really good day again, still outpacing everything.

misterpepp · September 30, 2023

Tix go on sale for Beyonce on Sunday night around midnight EST

Price should be ~$22 or so.

Edited September 30, 2023 by datpepper

Porthos · September 30, 2023

5 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Tix go on sale for Beyonce on Sunday night around midnight EST

Price should be ~$22 or so.

Le Sigh.

(well, ATP calculations should be somewhat simpler, I suppose...)

abracadabra1998 · September 30, 2023

2 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (T-13):

Day: T-13 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold

Totals: 20 theaters 128 612 12651 20936 60.43

Been slacking on Taylor, my last update was 8 days ago, so average of 76 tix sold a day. On par with the last few updates, nothing new to report.

Comps (last day I tracked each):

1.42x Barbie w/ EA at T-1: $31.64 Million

2.6x Oppenheimer at T-1: $27.35 Million

To make up for my slacking off, I'm following @Porthos descent into madness and looking into Saturday sales; it'll take a min, but I'll report back

Alright so this is what Saturday is looking like:

14172/42520 seats, 33.3% sold

So SAT is at 112% of Friday numbers. Looking a lot better than Sacto's numbers, can't really give you a reason why.

keysersoze123 · September 30, 2023

This is really good for theaters. We need more in 2024 as number of big movies would be even more limited as impact of strike would be higher for those movies.

M37 · September 30, 2023

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is really good for theaters. We need more in 2024 as number of big movies would be even more limited as impact of strike would be higher for those movies.

Second this. Theaters have never really cared what content they played, so long as it got people in the door. And with audiences slimming post-pandemic, why not look at alternate options?

It will be years away, but I can’t wait for the eventual live sports crossover

Relevation · September 30, 2023

24 minutes ago, M37 said:

Second this. Theaters have never really cared what content they played, so long as it got people in the door. And with audiences slimming post-pandemic, why not look at alternate options?

It will be years away, but I can’t wait for the eventual live sports crossover

Years? UFC already does live streamed fights in theaters all the time, next February looks so dire that I could genuinely see theaters striking a deal to get a one night live-stream of the Super Bowl filmed for IMAX and formatted for PLFs.

M37 · September 30, 2023

23 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Years? UFC already does live streamed fights in theaters all the time, next February looks so dire that I could genuinely see theaters striking a deal to get a one night live-stream of the Super Bowl filmed for IMAX and formatted for PLFs.

Problem is going to be the already signed exclusive TV contracts. Networks aren’t going to give up potential viewers without some kind of compensation, and IMO it would have to included as part of the package, whenever those contracts are up (hence years)

Maybe there’s some kind of deal where say Universal - owner of NBC - can agree to share in revenue of such of a release, but I’m not holding my breath

Flip · September 30, 2023

54 minutes ago, M37 said:

Second this. Theaters have never really cared what content they played, so long as it got people in the door. And with audiences slimming post-pandemic, why not look at alternate options?

It will be years away, but I can’t wait for the eventual live sports crossover

only live sports event that could make good money (in the US) is the Super Bowl. It wouldn't happen ever but if theaters worldwide could somehow do a World Cup Final that would definitely be significant, though I'm not sure why people would pay to see it when they could just stream or watch it on cable

TheFlatLannister · September 30, 2023

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

FRIDAY

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

T-14

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

226

11343

43831

26.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

20

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews:

(0.845x) of Barbie ~$17.83M FRIDAY for TET

(1.015x) of ATSV~$17.61M FRIDAY for TET

(1.693x) of TLM~$17.44M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.63M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $24.68M

T-14 comps

(2.180x) of GOTG3~$38.14M FRIDAY for TET

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $53.40M

Ran the scraper twice. Looks like seats are disappearing again. Based on daily pace from multiple markets, I think this is going to be extremely presale heavy with minimal walkup growth, but i guess that's pretty obvious.

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

FRIDAY

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
226	11356	43831	25.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

13

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

20

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews:

(0.846x) of Barbie ~$17.85M FRIDAY for TET

(1.016x) of ATSV~$17.63M FRIDAY for TET

(1.695x) of TLM~$17.46M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.65M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $24.72M

T-13 comps

(2.127x) of GOTG3~$37.23M FRIDAY for TET

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $52.12M

TheFlatLannister · September 30, 2023

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

Thursday Previews

T-6

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

149

679

26279

2.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

24

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-6

(4.381x) of Talk to me~$5.45M THUR Previews

(4.409x) of Boogeyman~$4.85M THUR Previews

(1.598x) of Nun II~$4.95M THUR Previews

COMPS AVG: $5.08M

Very steep drop against all comps today

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

Thursday Previews

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
149	715	26279	2.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

36

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-5

(3.803x) of Talk to me~$4.73M THUR Previews

(3.471x) of Boogeyman~$3.82M THUR Previews

(1.462x) of Nun II~$4.53M THUR Previews

(1.892x) of Saw X~$3.78M THUR Previews

COMPS AVG: $4.22M

TheFlatLannister · September 30, 2023

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

Thursday Previews

T-21

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

136

390

22614

1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

16

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-21

(0.345x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.62M THUR Previews

Well, its still increasing against Oppy comp

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

Thursday Previews

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
136	405	22614	1.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-20

(0.353x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.71M THUR Previews

Krissykins · October 1, 2023

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Second this. Theaters have never really cared what content they played, so long as it got people in the door. And with audiences slimming post-pandemic, why not look at alternate options?

It will be years away, but I can’t wait for the eventual live sports crossover

Yeh here in the UK we’ve had “event cinema” for years and years. Musicals, plays, general theatre, opera, ballet, concerts etc.

The Jodie Comer one woman show made over £5m last year and it was only on set days.

SpiderByte · October 1, 2023

4 hours ago, M37 said:

Second this. Theaters have never really cared what content they played, so long as it got people in the door. And with audiences slimming post-pandemic, why not look at alternate options?

It will be years away, but I can’t wait for the eventual live sports crossover

I can't imagine a sports event exclusive enough to make that work. Especially since sports are live.

Porthos · October 1, 2023

21 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

I can't imagine a sports event exclusive enough to make that work. Especially since sports are live.

The super huge movie screen + communal experience is the draw, not so much the sporting event itself.

(plus whatever bennies one has at that movie theater/chain)

How different would this be from seeing it at a bar? Not radically different, I think. Some plusses and minuses, but when it comes down to it, it's a similar experience.

SpiderByte · October 1, 2023

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

How different would this be from seeing it at a bar?

You can drink at a bar.

Day: T-13	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	128	612	12651	20936	60.43

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