The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

You can drink at a bar.

 

And you can at many modern movie theaters.

 

(besides, it's an analogy)

[SpiderByte]

41 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

And you can at many modern movie theaters.

 

(besides, it's an analogy)

Let me be more specific: you can be drunk at a bar

[WorkingonaName]

I would go to the movies a lot more if they cloud drink during them. 

[vale9001]

So 2 months of pre sales for Beyoncé 😅, even 2 weeks more than TET. At some point tracking will definitely became very slow i would Say. 

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/29/2023 at 3:30 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2112

2657

79.49%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2040

2741

74.43%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
10559	43	22056	47.87%	13	146

 

1.450	Doctor Strange MoM T-14	52.19M
1.024	Barbie T-0	22.83M
0.687	Doctor Strange MoM T-0	24.74M
0.456	NWH T-0	22.80M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2115

2657

79.60%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2045

2741

74.61%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
10587	28	22056	48.00%	13	146

 

1.027	Barbie T-0	22.89M
0.689	Doctor Strange MoM T-0	24.81M
0.457	NWH T-0	22.86M

 

Numbers are from earlier today. I'll add Thor comps starting tomorrow

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/29/2023 at 3:32 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-14 Friday

100 Showings

10381

+88

15743

ATP:

22.37

0.649	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-14	23.36M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-14	34.75M
0.321	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	11.54M
0.267	NWH Thurs T-0	13.37M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	17.17M
	Adjusted NWH Thurs T-0	19.89M

 

T-15 Saturday

183 Showings

13818

+144

27309

ATP:

22.10

0.991	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-15	54.21M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-15	81.80M
0.372	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	20.33M
0.324	NWH Fri T-0	23.30M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	30.67M
	Adjusted NWH Fri T-0	35.16M

 

T-16 Sunday

161 Showings

10978

+137

23957

ATP:

21.95

0.759	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-16	43.89M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-16	67.88M
0.250	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	14.43M
0.218	NWH Sat T-0	16.14M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	22.31M
	Adjusted NWH Sat T-0	24.96M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-13 Friday

100 Showings

10474

+93

15743

ATP:

22.37

0.323	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	11.64M
0.270	NWH Thurs T-0	13.49M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	17.32M
	Adjusted NWH Thurs T-0	20.07M

 

T-14 Saturday

183 Showings

13938

+120

27308

ATP:

22.11

0.375	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	20.51M
0.327	NWH Fri T-0	23.51M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	30.94M
	Adjusted NWH Fri T-0	35.47M

 

T-15 Sunday

161 Showings

11085

+107

23957

ATP:

21.94

0.252	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	14.57M
0.220	NWH Sat T-0	16.29M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	22.52M
	Adjusted NWH Sat T-0	25.19M

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/29/2023 at 3:35 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-14 Friday

128 Showings

9528

+79

19770

0.664

Barbie T-0 Thursday

14.80M

 

T-15 Saturday

234 Showings

6436

+70

36896

0.250

Barbie T-0 Friday

11.96M

 

T-16 Sunday

232 Showings

3740

-34

35531

0.158

Barbie T-0 Saturday

6.89M

 

Sunday decreased because two showings either got removed or just aren't working today. Most likely the latter.

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-13 Friday

128 Showings

9600

+72

19809

0.669

Barbie T-0 Thursday

14.92M

 

T-14 Saturday

234 Showings

6527

+91

36970

0.254

Barbie T-0 Friday

12.13M

 

T-15 Sunday

232 Showings

3914

+174

36381

0.165

Barbie T-0 Saturday

7.21M

[tdangie]

How is Five Nights at Freddy’s selling for you guys? Idk if I’m gaslighting myself, but I think it’s selling pretty well around Los Angeles. I’m excited to see what comps you guys have for this!

[Porthos]

54 minutes ago, tdangie said:

How is Five Nights at Freddy’s selling for you guys? Idk if I’m gaslighting myself, but I think it’s selling pretty well around Los Angeles. I’m excited to see what comps you guys have for this!

 

They, um, haven't even been on sale for two hours yet; give it some time.

 

(went on sale at midnight on the East Coast and 9pm Cali time)

[Porthos]

Will say that I have no idea how much fan rush/frontloading is going on but it has indeed already sold more than 60 tickets region wide in the now 2+ hours since sales went live.

 

That's.... That's not nothing, especially given it appears to be mostly a soft-launch at 9pm local time via mostly WOM on Twitter.  At least I think it was a soft-launch.

 

Gonna be real curious to see a full day's worth of sales numbers and how they compare/contrast to various films.

[vale9001]

8 hours ago, Flip said:

only live sports event that could make good money (in the US) is the Super Bowl. It wouldn't happen ever but if theaters worldwide could somehow do a World Cup Final that would definitely be significant, though I'm not sure why people would pay to see it when they could just stream or watch it on cable

 

 

honestly i think it's a bad idea to turn theaters into that. Yeah some people could go to watch the grammys on a big screen but what you get on a big screen should always feel special imo. What's interesting about Swift- Beyoncè concert it's they had a lot of offers from big studios and their idea was to give them an hybrid between a theater release and a streamingg release. Of course their hardcore fans would have watched on a big sceeen anyways but an announcement about one week on a big screen next week on netflix would have take away from it every aura of a big event for a general audience. 

 

 

I don't think theaters should became a place where you can see what it's going also for free on television at the same moment. In the long time you can ruin theaters prestige, now it's building again as you can see with thhe fact Swift and Beyoncé have chosen them after chosing streaming platforms in the last years with their previous live events. 

 

 

Edited October 1, 2023 by vale9001

[Porthos]

53 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Will say that I have no idea how much fan rush/frontloading is going on but it has indeed already sold more than 60 tickets region wide in the now 2+ hours since sales went live.

 

That's.... That's not nothing, especially given it appears to be mostly a soft-launch at 9pm local time via mostly WOM on Twitter.  At least I think it was a soft-launch.

 

Gonna be real curious to see a full day's worth of sales numbers and how they compare/contrast to various films.

 

In fact, the more I think about it, the more I'm impressed with it.  Main thing that concerns me is a very motivated fan rush putting a thumb on the scale (saw something like this with King of the Monsters back in the day when WOM propelled sales before an official announcement was made).

 

Still, Scream VI  sold 213 tickets locally its first day* of sales and I'm gonna be super curious to see how close FNAF gets to that given it already has a decent head start.

* Sample technically pulled at 10am the next day as I did a frantic catch up, but, eh, close enough.

 

Don't have many horror comps, especially this far out.  But kinda thinking Scream VI shouldn't be a terrible comp if FNAF shows signs of life locally.  In fact, might actually be a downright decent comp.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	150	11457	19642	8185	41.67%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

36

 

T-14 Comps:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	51.87		511	15779		0/298	20647/36426	43.32%		28183	29.04%		25.94m	37.61m
MoM	78.71		190	10399		0/351	32037/42436	24.51%		21117	38.76%		28.34m	41.09m
Thor 4	124.98		195	6549		0/228	25051/31600	20.72%		16962	48.25%		36.24m	52.55m
BP2	115.93		230	7060		2/294	29934/37024	19.07%		16800	48.72%		32.46m	47.07m
AM3	171.70		150	4767		0/238	28027/32794	14.54%		10475	78.14%		30.05m	43.57m
GOTG3	227.74		47	3594		0/203	25501/29095	12.35%		10750	76.14%		39.85m	57.79m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-14 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	200.27		164	4087		0/285	31380/35467	11.52%		11757	69.62%
JWD	315.41		170	2595		0/191	22777/25372	10.23%		10966	74.64%
Ava 2	292.43		104	2799		0/142	18539/21338	13.12%		8986	91.09%
AtSV	412.13		94	1986		0/129	18803/20789	9.55%		9744	84.00%
Barbie	411.51		176	1989		1/97	10623/12612	15.77%		12077	67.77%
Oppy	723.06		48	1132		0/55	7524/8656	13.08%		4621	177.13%
Barben	262.26		224	3121		1/152	18147/21268	14.67%		16698	49.02%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2335/6150  [37.97% sold]

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	150	11412	19641	8229	41.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

44

 

T-13 Comps:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	50.84		406	16185		0/308	21367/37552	43.10%		28183	29.20%		25.42m	36.86m
MoM	77.52		216	10615		0/351	31821/42436	25.01%		21117	38.97%		27.91m	40.47m
Thor 4	120.77		265	6814		0/228	24786/31600	21.56%		16962	48.51%		35.02m	50.78m
BP2	113.50		190	7250		2/296	29904/37154	19.51%		16800	48.98%		31.78m	46.08m
AM3	168.28		123	4890		0/238	27904/32794	14.91%		10475	78.56%		29.45m	42.70m
GOTG3	223.80		83	3677		0/203	25377/29054	12.66%		10750	76.55%		39.16m	56.79m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-13 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	194.13		152	4239		0/285	31225/35464	11.95%		11757	69.99%
JWD	303.99		112	2707		0/191	22665/25372	10.67%		10966	75.04%
Ava 2	279.23		148	2947		0/145	18537/21484	13.72%		8986	91.58%
AtSV	397.73		83	2069		0/129	18720/20789	9.95%		9744	84.45%
Barbie	385.25		147	2136		0/99	10577/12713	16.80%		12077	68.14%
Oppy	685.75		68	1200		0/57	7688/8888	13.50%		4621	178.08%
Barben	246.67		215	3336		0/156	18265/21601	15.44%		16698	49.28%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2338/6150  [38.02% sold]

[vafrow]

On 9/29/2023 at 10:11 PM, vafrow said:

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-14 (late evening pull)

 

Total sales:  17,775

New Sales: 549

Growth from yesterday 3.2%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5330 across 115 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  100

Total Seats Available for Sale: 26,490

Percentage of seats sold: 67.1%

Tickets per showtime: 177.8

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

Growth figures are wonky, as another location added back matinee showtimes, making up 406 of the 549 "new" sales, even though they're restored sales from prior to the nuke.

 

A second case makes me think they'll be adding back the matinees in full soon. It seems odd that they'd not just let one reopen for a few days, but start adding others.

 

Removing the restored sales, growth is pretty solid, showing a rise from the usual. We might have passed the bottom of the curve.

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-13 (early am pull)

 

Total sales:  17,916

New Sales: 141

Growth from yesterday 0.8%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5330 across 115 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  100

Total Seats Available for Sale: 26,490

Percentage of seats sold: 67.6%

Tickets per showtime: 179.2

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

The growth rate has definitely increased from the past week. Woth no restored shows, it's now pacing at 0.8% range, rather rhan the 0.3-0.4% we were seeing.

[vafrow]

No Five Nights at Freddy's up for sale in Canada yet. I'm watching this one closely.

 

My 10 year old is obsessed with the game (or obsessed with YouTubers who play the game to be more specific), so I've promised to give him updates from here.

[vafrow]

20 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Exorcist: Believer, T-6, Thursday previews, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 260

New sales: 36

Growth since yesterday:  16%

Theatre Count: 47

Showtimes: 94

Tickets per showtime:  2.77

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

COMPS

0.982x of Equalizer 3 for $3.7M

0.657x of Blue Beetle for $2.2M

No comp on Nun 2 until T-4

0.667x of Saw X for $1.3M

0.957x of The Creator for $1.3M

 

Average $2.1M

 

Not a great day, made worse by the dropping of Nun 2 as a comp due to lack of data, and having the Thursday grosses for Saw and Creator.

 

This also represents close to two days of data, as last pull was Thursday esrly evening.

 

 

Exorcist: Believer, T-5, Thursday previews, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 294

New sales: 34

Growth since yesterday:  13%

Theatre Count: 47

Showtimes: 94

Tickets per showtime:  3.13

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

COMPS

0.912x of Equalizer 3 for $3.5M

0.616x of Blue Beetle for $2.0M

No comp on Nun 2 until T-4

0.656x of Saw X for $1.3M

0.977x of The Creator for $1.3M

 

Average $2.0M

 

It's limping along. Fell against comps, except for Creator, where it rose slightly. But Creator had a late surge that I don't know if this will get.

 

Can you imagine how badly it would be doing if it kept it's release date again TET?

[vafrow]

On 9/30/2023 at 6:05 AM, vafrow said:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon, T-20, Thues previews, southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 446

New sales: 60

Growth since yesterday: 16%

Theatre Count: 43

Showtimes: 66

Tickets per showtime:  6.75

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Staying nice and steady. No comps yet. By around T-14, some will appear, but, nothing that great.

 

 

 

Killers of the Flower Moon, T-19, Thues previews, southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 462

New sales: 16

Growth since yesterday: 4%

Theatre Count: 43

Showtimes: 66

Tickets per showtime:  7.00

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Starting to really slow down.

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

No Five Nights at Freddy's up for sale in Canada yet. I'm watching this one closely.

 

My 10 year old is obsessed with the game (or obsessed with YouTubers who play the game to be more specific), so I've promised to give him updates from here.

I think this will cause a problem here, it’s likely to be a 15 so some audience being cut off. Didn’t realise the fan base was so young. 

 

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

Exorcist: Believer, T-5, Thursday previews, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 294

New sales: 34

Growth since yesterday:  13%

Theatre Count: 47

Showtimes: 94

Tickets per showtime:  3.13

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

COMPS

0.912x of Equalizer 3 for $3.5M

0.616x of Blue Beetle for $2.0M

No comp on Nun 2 until T-4

0.656x of Saw X for $1.3M

0.977x of The Creator for $1.3M

 

Average $2.0M

 

It's limping along. Fell against comps, except for Creator, where it rose slightly. But Creator had a late surge that I don't know if this will get.

 

Can you imagine how badly it would be doing if it kept it's release date again TET?

Oh $2m previews would point to a sub $20m opening, is that where you see it ending up this weekend? 

[abracadabra1998]

4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I think this will cause a problem here, it’s likely to be a 15 so some audience being cut off. Didn’t realise the fan base was so young. 

Come into my middle school classroom and you will see a loooooot of enthusiasm for it, which did surprise me when I first heard them starting to talk about it. I’ve been a little higher on it because of this, it should have more teen audiences than other horrors this year 

[vafrow]

11 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I think this will cause a problem here, it’s likely to be a 15 so some audience being cut off. Didn’t realise the fan base was so young. 

 

Oh $2m previews would point to a sub $20m opening, is that where you see it ending up this weekend? 

 

I've been finding it hard to use my numbers to forecast. Canadian market doesn't always align.

 

If it plays like The Nun 2, it'll do better. If it plays like Saw, it's going to do horribly.

 

It's going to need 30-40% jumps in the next few days to really give it a shot, that I'm not feeling too confident on yet.