The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Lol. Did I actually say 17-18?

I’m pretty sure u said $17-$18 wouldn’t shock you, but in online terminology that means it’s a lock 😂

[Porthos]

39 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I’m pretty sure u said $17-$18 wouldn’t shock you, but in online terminology that means it’s a lock 😂

 

Kinda like how we've somehow arrived at "concept art made during blue sky pre-production*" = "almost happened in a movie" in online reportage.

* Not to be confused with the now-defunct Blue Sky studio.

 

Like, I get how language evolves, but I tend to think the internet is well on its way to taking words like "almost" and "basically" and phrases with similar meanings into a back alley and brutally murdering them.

[keysersoze123]

On 10/14/2023 at 12:44 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Five nights at Freddys MTC2 previews - 32893/264892 436144.03 1701 shows. 

Five nights at Freddys MTC2 previews - 40823/402055 534910.27 2712 shows

 

It did not sell almost 8K tickets in past day. just that there was 1000 plus shows missing in my update yesterday. Still great number for the movie as it has another 12+ days to go. Run started in the morning and So I am not calling it T-12. Keep an eye on Low ATP as well :-)

[keysersoze123]

On 10/14/2023 at 10:43 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

FNAF MiniTC2 T-13 Days

 

Previews - 5334/62850 (247 showings)

 

Comps

1.06x Barbie - $23.8M

2.81x Oppenheimer - $26.25M (Adj for ATP)
1.16x Avatar 2 - $17.5M (Adj for ATP)
2.40x Eternals - $22.8M

2.24x The Flash - $21.7M

Still growing for Barbie comp. LOL.

Friday - 2081/61868 (241 showings)

 

Comps
0.64x Barbie - $30.9M

1.82x The Flash - $26.6M

 

Pretty Great result. I am obviously over-indexing for this which does happen at times for horror films but still LOL. The usual overindexing should still see these comps around $17-18M for THU. 
 

I think charlie did say that even with over indexing these comps should still see around 17-18m. There is no doubt based on pace and total presales at MiniTC2, its going to finish like a 20m previews movie. That said let us see how things go next 12 days. it would be awesome if it breaks out huge. 

 

I am hearing even down under presales have started strong. So this is going to be more than just domestic.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 10/14/2023 at 11:13 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

FNAF MiniTC2 T-13 Days

 

Previews - 5334/62850 (247 showings)

 

Comps

1.06x Barbie - $23.8M

2.81x Oppenheimer - $26.25M (Adj for ATP)
1.16x Avatar 2 - $17.5M (Adj for ATP)
2.40x Eternals - $22.8M

2.24x The Flash - $21.7M

Still growing for Barbie comp. LOL.

Friday - 2081/61868 (241 showings)

 

Comps
0.64x Barbie - $30.9M

1.82x The Flash - $26.6M

 

Pretty Great result. I am obviously over-indexing for this which does happen at times for horror films but still LOL. The usual overindexing should still see these comps around $17-18M for THU. 
 

So this is the source of 17-18. I just said that usual over-indexing would see them do 17-18M but this seems to be overindexing even more than that. 

 

I used LOL twice in the post, not really worth taking this in consideration.

Edited October 16, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

Let us hope its not over indexing and other markets catch up. MTC1 needs to add more shows for sure. That will happen. MTC2 has added huge number of shows and is having good pace. I think 200K+ finish can happen which would mean ~2.6m over there. It has to do 250K and ~3.25m to keep 15-16m range. Is it easy. Probably not. But you can never say not happening. 

 

MTC1 will need 350K finish. That seems tough but only time will tell if there is a chance. This is probably under indexing big time over there. 

[Porthos]

31 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So this is the source of 17-18. I just said that usual over-indexing would see them do 17-18M but this seems to be overindexing even more than that. 

 

I used LOL twice in the post, not really worth taking this in consideration.

 

Been a while. but...

 

 

(izza joke, reddit)

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

Been a while. but...

 

 

(izza joke, reddit)

Which means for Marvels we can just erase 1 and say 7.5m is inevitable. 

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Which means for Marvels we can just erase 1 and say 7.5m is inevitable. 

 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 days and counting'

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	187	26754	27515	761	2.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

25

 

T-26 Comps:

	%		Sold T-26	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GOTG3	28.77		88	2645		0/206	27026/29671	8.91%		10750	7.08%		5.03m
TLM	113.41		59	671		0/154	21323/21994	3.05%		6561	11.60%		11.68m
Indy 5	97.56		27	780		0/124	18747/19527	3.99%		4767	15.96%		7.02m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     98/8661  [1.13% sold]
Matinee:    28/2547  [1.10% | 3.68% of all tickets sold]
3D:            56/4989  [1.12% | 7.36% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Given the lead time Indy 5 had on The Marvels, could have been worse, I suppose (GOTG3's difference is "just" a day's worth of pre-sales, though at this level of sales, even that matters somewhat).  Now to see how it weathers the U-curve (Eternals and The Flash had not yet started their pre-sale runs).

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days and counting

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	187	26707	27515	808	2.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

47

 

T-25 Comps:

	%		Sold T-25	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GOTG3	30.06		43	2688		0/206	26983/29671	9.06%		10750	7.52%		5.26m
TLM	110.53		60	731		0/154	21263/21994	3.32%		6561	12.32%		11.38m
Indy 5	102.02		12	792		0/124	18735/19527	4.06%		4767	16.95%		7.35m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     107/8661  [1.24% sold]
Matinee:    28/2547  [1.10% | 3.47% of all tickets sold]
3D:            56/4989  [1.12% | 6.93% of all tickets sold]

 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	102	13203	15271	2068	13.54%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

83

 

T-12 Comps:

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	200.78		55	1030		0/146	21037/22067	4.67%		4494	46.02%		15.06m
Scrm6	282.13		29	733		0/78	9127/9860	7.43%		3134	65.99%		16.08m
Wick4	161.06		53	1284		0/90	12301/13585	9.45%		5448	37.96%		14.33m
AtSV	96.01		85	2154		0/129	18632/20786	10.36%		9744	21.22%		16.66m
GOTG3	54.83		95	3772		0/203	25282/29054	12.98%		10750	19.24%		9.59m
Flash	157.86		29	1310		0/178	23838/25148	5.21%		5327	38.82%		15.31m
Barbie	89.91		164	2300		0/99	10413/12713	18.09%		12077	17.12%		20.05m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:     469/3078  [15.24% sold]
Matinee:    172/926  [18.57% | 8.32% of all tickets sold]

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	102	13123	15271	2148	14.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

80

 

T-11 Comps:   WARNING - USE ONLY FOR DAILY PACE PURPOSES FOR OF THE BELOW COMPS

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	200.00		44	1074		0/146	20993/22067	4.87%		4494	47.80%		15.00m
Scrm6	281.89		29	762		0/78	9098/9860	7.73%		3134	68.54%		16.07m
Wick4	161.14		49	1333		0/95	12458/13791	9.67%		5448	39.43%		14.34m
AtSV	95.59		93	2247		0/129	18539/20786	10.81%		9744	22.04%		16.59m
GOTG3	55.32		111	3883		0/203	25171/29054	13.36%		10750	19.98%		9.68m
Flash	156.79		60	1370		0/178	23778/25148	5.45%		5327	40.32%		15.21m
Barbie	85.85		202	2502		0/99	10211/12713	19.68%		12077	17.79%		19.14m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     483/3078  [15.69% sold]
Matinee:    182/926  [19.65% | 8.47% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

So I've been mentioning off and on about how Barbie would start to pull away once its social media/review/premiere bounce started to be felt, and was pretty much at this point in the pre-sale run when it started to become apparent that Barbie might very well become *BARBIE!*. 

 

I only mention that because, truth be told, I'm actually a bit impressed how well FNAF is hanging with Across the Spider-Verse.  But, and here comes that song again, AtSV is gonna start getting its acceleration tomorrow.  That's one of the main reasons why I said earlier today that I wanted to see how FNAF does this week without the benefit of a world premiere or a social embargo drop.

 

I have my priors on the subject, but I admit to being curious to seeing just how it all plays out this week.

[M37]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

So I've been mentioning off and on about how Barbie would start to pull away once its social media/review/premiere bounce started to be felt, and was pretty much at this point in the pre-sale run when it started to become apparent that Barbie might very well become *BARBIE!*. 

 

I only mention that because, truth be told, I'm actually a bit impressed how well FNAF is hanging with Across the Spider-Verse.  But, and here comes that song again, AtSV is gonna start getting its acceleration tomorrow.  That's one of the main reasons why I said earlier today that I wanted to see how FNAF does this week without the benefit of a world premiere or a social embargo drop.

 

I have my priors on the subject, but I admit to being curious to seeing just how it all plays out this week.

For your market, the standard pace in multiplier terms from T-14 is 4.3-4.7x, unless you drop into the old man range of Avatar, Indy 5, TGM at sub-4x or frontloaded MCU, which doesn't seem likely for FNAF.  On the high end, ATSV wasn't that much of an outlier at 4.91x, but Barbie was way out there at 6.07x, just below Transformers (6.19x)

 

Pending more data on pace, setting an baseline expectation of an ~8-8.5K finish, which is just slightly above Venom 2 (unless FNAF manages to keep pace with ATSV). Adjusting down a bit for ATP (which should matter less at that high of volume of tickets), probably still looking at ~$13-$14M preview total. Maybe there's a market skew that brings the total down a bit more, but at this point I think the $11.6M of Venom 2 is a reasonable floor. Side note: we haven't a preview value land between that $11.6M and the infamous $17M range since Black Widow, even with a handful of managing to land in the $10-$11M range

 

Even with a CBM-like (and Day & Date deflated) 8x IM would be over $100M for the weekend. At this point I've throw out my priors, just presuming this another breakout that flew under my radar, don't see any reason for the pace to fall off for Thursday sales, and more likely to exceed the values above than fall below it

[M37]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

I was going back and looking at various TET estimates in this thread, and while focus was always on the Friday opening number, attempts at guessing the IM multiplier was less than great. I was estimating 3.25x Friday, and was on the lower end, and even excluding the Thursday previews , the final results are going to be much lower, between 2.5-2.6x.

 

Not having traditional Thursday previews, and assumptions that longer length and limited capacity would push more Saturday sales were the flawed assumptions.

Not quite - the "flawed assumption" was tied to pace, in that an expected growth rate that did not materialize. Saturday was always trailing Friday in sales by a healthy amount, but is was presumed as ticket sales grow, Sat would grow more at at least catch up ... but we didn't know that even Saturday had already sold 75% of its eventual tickets.

 

When it became clear there was limited demand left, no pace incoming, them the IM from Friday came accordingly. Its also very unusual for a release to see a TFri to Sat drop, especially when Fri has far fewer shows, but once getting over that mental hurdle it was fairly clear the IM was going sub-3x, just a question of how low.

 

 

[Eric the Minion]

 

Wanted to say earlier that Wish's low ticket sales can be attributed to Disney never actually advertising tickets being on sale. Well now they are. Weird they didn't do this on Friday, but whatever. Will be curious to see any notable bumps with an official social media announcement

[tdangie]

58 minutes ago, M37 said:

For your market, the standard pace in multiplier terms from T-14 is 4.3-4.7x, unless you drop into the old man range of Avatar, Indy 5, TGM at sub-4x or frontloaded MCU, which doesn't seem likely for FNAF.  On the high end, ATSV wasn't that much of an outlier at 4.91x, but Barbie was way out there at 6.07x, just below Transformers (6.19x)

 

Pending more data on pace, setting an baseline expectation of an ~8-8.5K finish, which is just slightly above Venom 2 (unless FNAF manages to keep pace with ATSV). Adjusting down a bit for ATP (which should matter less at that high of volume of tickets), probably still looking at ~$13-$14M preview total. Maybe there's a market skew that brings the total down a bit more, but at this point I think the $11.6M of Venom 2 is a reasonable floor. Side note: we haven't a preview value land between that $11.6M and the infamous $17M range since Black Widow, even with a handful of managing to land in the $10-$11M range

 

Even with a CBM-like (and Day & Date deflated) 8x IM would be over $100M for the weekend. At this point I've throw out my priors, just presuming this another breakout that flew under my radar, don't see any reason for the pace to fall off for Thursday sales, and more likely to exceed the values above than fall below it

Just curious, would a large audience of school-age children change these comps? I know they would drag down the ATP of FNAF, but I am wondering if they have different characteristics in terms walk-ups, pre-sales, second-weekend drops, etc.

A huge reason that this franchise is massive is because of these fanatic children, and I suspect that they're going to drive a lot of the revenue for the movie. (People in their 20s love FNAF too, but I've already accepted that my theater might be full of lil babies LOL)

[M37]

1 hour ago, tdangie said:

Just curious, would a large audience of school-age children change these comps? I know they would drag down the ATP of FNAF, but I am wondering if they have different characteristics in terms walk-ups, pre-sales, second-weekend drops, etc.

A huge reason that this franchise is massive is because of these fanatic children, and I suspect that they're going to drive a lot of the revenue for the movie. (People in their 20s love FNAF too, but I've already accepted that my theater might be full of lil babies LOL)

Generally speaking, the younger the core audience, the higher the sales pace towards the finish (with some demographic nuance mixed in). One could have written off the early sales as a fan driven IP rush, but that sales are still pacing very well at this point makes that seem less plausible, that the upside potential is far greater than downside/slowdown risk
 

FNAF could make a run not just at Oct OW record, but set its sights on Sept/Horror top marks as well …

Edited October 16, 2023 by M37

[YM!]

Trolls Band Together tickets are popping up at Marcus Theatres near me. It's more or less getting the same treatment as Wish with 3D split and no PLF sharing.

 

Previews start at 2:00 pm lol

Edited October 16, 2023 by YM!

[Eric the Minion]

Quorum Updates

Five Nights at Freddy's T-11: 47.43% Awareness

What Happens Later T-18: 22.5%

The Holdovers T-25: 16.36%

Napoleon T-37: 24.41%

Renaissance - A Film By Beyonce T-46: 18.2%

Ballerina T-235: 17.15%

 

Killers of the Flower Moon T-4: 41.87% Awareness

Final Awareness: 85% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M, 21% chance of 40M, 12% chance of 70M, 6% chance of 80M, 3% chance of 90M

Medium Awareness: 75% chance of 10M, 58% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M, 17% chance of 40M, 8% chance of 80M

 

Freelance T-11: 30.73% Awareness

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 4% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 22% chance of 10M

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-32: 44.09% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 94% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 30M, 61% chance of 40M, 44% chance of 50M, 39% chance of 60M, 22% chance of 90M, 17% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 60M

 

Thanksgiving T-32: 30.54% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 61% chance of 20M, 39% chance of 30M, 14% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 83% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M, 17% chance of 40M

[Giorno]

@M37have you started the lower and upper bound table for the marvels or is it too early to make any guess work on that?

[vafrow]

Still no FNAF tickets for sale in Canada yet. Unless they do it in the next 24 hours, it's going to be just normal release, with Thursday previews being available sometime tomorrow evening. Only bigger recent film that's got this treatment with no advance sales was Saw X, which obviously opened much lower. 

 

Wish still isn't available either, despite today being that 100 year anniver date.