The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[YM!]

“According to TheFlatLannister of Box Office Theory, they have never seen anything quite like it. A sample size given has only 239 seats sold, so far, out of 30,000+ available. No showings have been added since demand obviously isn’t there.“

 

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2024/9/17/megalopolis-presales-at-historical-lows-3m-opening-weekend

 

@TheFlatLannister you made it

[JonathanMB]

4 minutes ago, YM! said:

“

According to TheFlatLannister of Box Office Theory, they have never seen anything quite like it. A sample size given has only 239 seats sold, so far, out of 30,000+ available. No showings have been added since demand obviously isn’t there.“

 

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2024/9/17/megalopolis-presales-at-historical-lows-3m-opening-weekend

 

@TheFlatLannister you made it

 

Having a post stolen by Jordan Ruimy as clickbait fodder for his website...the marker of a true movie message board!

Edited September 17 by JonathanMB

[Ryan C]

I'll be tracking Transformers One later tonight, but that $75M budget shows that even with one of their biggest IPs, Paramount didn't want to overspend and that's a smart move on their end. 

 

If anyone could provide the article who said this movie cost $147M, that would be great because there's no way this movie would cost any higher than at most $100M. Unless I'm forgetting something, I don't think Paramount has ever spend more than $100M on an animated film. 

 

Regardless, that $75M budget (if it's true) pretty much assures that this film will be alright financially and considering that Transformers is a much more popular franchise overseas than something like TMNT, I'm expecting a run over $200M worldwide and potentially more if word-of-mouth really catches on. 

 

Also, I know we're all panicking already because of the early pre-sales, but remember that we're in September (not summer anymore) and we just saw Beetlejuice Beetlejuice go from a possible weekend under $100M to $111M because of strong Saturday business/walk-ups. 

 

With this being the first animated film to be released since July, I'm expecting a lot of families to turn up for this one and good word-of-mouth (which this will have) should carry it into the rest of October and into November (despite The Wild Robot). 

 

I could be wrong and maybe Transformers has become the animated equivalent of something like Ghostbusters or Alien (the fans show up but no one else), but let's hope that this doom and gloom just turned out to be another false alarm. 

Edited September 17 by Ryan C

[Relevation]

 

@TheFlatLannister You broke containment lmao

[Ryan C]

Just now, Relevation said:

 

@TheFlatLannister You broke containment lmao

 

Dude literally became a celebrity overnight. LOL!

[WebSurfer]

3 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

I'll be tracking Transformers One later tonight, but that $75M budget shows that even with one of their biggest IPs, Paramount didn't want to overspend and that's a smart move on their end. 

 

If anyone could provide the article who said this movie cost $147M, that would be great because there's no way this movie would cost any higher than at most $100M. Unless I'm forgetting something, I don't think Paramount has ever spend more than $100M on an animated film. 

 

Regardless, that $75M budget (if it's true) pretty much assures that this film will be alright financially and considering that Transformers is a much more popular franchise overseas than something like TMNT, I'm expecting a run over $200M worldwide and potentially more if word-of-mouth really catches on. 

 

Also, I know we're all panicking already because of the early pre-sales, but remember that we're in September (not summer anymore) and we just saw Beetlejuice Beetlejuice go from a possible weekend under $100M to $111M because of strong Saturday business/walk-ups. 

 

With this being the first animated film to be released since July, I'm expecting a lot of families to turn up for this one and good word-of-mouth (which this will have) should carry it into the rest of October and into November (despite The Wild Robot). 

 

I could be wrong and maybe Transformers has become the animated equivalent of something like Ghostbusters or Alien (the fans show up but no one else), but let's hope that this doom and gloom just turned out to be another false alarm. 

The Wild Robot should have good WOM as well.

[AniNate]

The figure came from an Animation Magazine profile of the director and producer. It's possible they just made a typo with the budget, but I maintain that it matters more how audiences receive the movie than if it surpasses the magical 2.5x rule for whatever the publicly reported budget is. The Transformers IP is obviously much more than its theatrical grosses.

 

'Transformers One' Director Josh Cooley & Producer Lorenzo di Bonaventura Discuss Their Animated Origin Story | Animation Magazine

[WebSurfer]

4 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

I'll be tracking Transformers One later tonight, but that $75M budget shows that even with one of their biggest IPs, Paramount didn't want to overspend and that's a smart move on their end. 

 

If anyone could provide the article who said this movie cost $147M, that would be great because there's no way this movie would cost any higher than at most $100M. Unless I'm forgetting something, I don't think Paramount has ever spend more than $100M on an animated film. 

 

Regardless, that $75M budget (if it's true) pretty much assures that this film will be alright financially and considering that Transformers is a much more popular franchise overseas than something like TMNT, I'm expecting a run over $200M worldwide and potentially more if word-of-mouth really catches on. 

 

Also, I know we're all panicking already because of the early pre-sales, but remember that we're in September (not summer anymore) and we just saw Beetlejuice Beetlejuice go from a possible weekend under $100M to $111M because of strong Saturday business/walk-ups. 

 

With this being the first animated film to be released since July, I'm expecting a lot of families to turn up for this one and good word-of-mouth (which this will have) should carry it into the rest of October and into November (despite The Wild Robot). 

 

I could be wrong and maybe Transformers has become the animated equivalent of something like Ghostbusters or Alien (the fans show up but no one else), but let's hope that this doom and gloom just turned out to be another false alarm. 

Wonder which of the two animated movies will come out on top by the end.

[YM!]

42 minutes ago, YM! said:

“

According to TheFlatLannister of Box Office Theory, they have never seen anything quite like it. A sample size given has only 239 seats sold, so far, out of 30,000+ available. No showings have been added since demand obviously isn’t there.“

 

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2024/9/17/megalopolis-presales-at-historical-lows-3m-opening-weekend

 

@TheFlatLannister you made it

 

[Ryan C]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

The figure came from an Animation Magazine profile of the director and producer. It's possible they just made a typo with the budget, but I maintain that it matters more how audiences receive the movie than if it surpasses the magical 2.5x rule for whatever the publicly reported budget is. The Transformers IP is obviously much more than its theatrical grosses.

 

'Transformers One' Director Josh Cooley & Producer Lorenzo di Bonaventura Discuss Their Animated Origin Story | Animation Magazine

 

What you said about the Transformers IP being more than its theatrical grosses is definitely true, but I find it hard to believe that the budget they listed was just a typo. 

 

I'm sorry, but $147M is almost 2x the $75M budget. There's a massive difference between them and the animation for the film was done at ILM (based in California). How many corners were they able to cut to get that low of a budget? I know I just said that Paramount wouldn't spend more than $100M on an animated film, but if they had the animation done by a studio that I'm sure is unionized and is obviously based in the U.S., then it wouldn't cost that low. 

 

Then again, we clearly saw yesterday (iykyk) that just because you're in California, that doesn't mean your studio is automatically unionized. 

 

I'm not trying to derail the thread or make up rumors, but now thinking about, something isn't clicking with this. 

[CheeseWizard]

8 minutes ago, AniNate said:

The figure came from an Animation Magazine profile of the director and producer. It's possible they just made a typo with the budget, but I maintain that it matters more how audiences receive the movie than if it surpasses the magical 2.5x rule for whatever the publicly reported budget is. The Transformers IP is obviously much more than its theatrical grosses.

 

'Transformers One' Director Josh Cooley & Producer Lorenzo di Bonaventura Discuss Their Animated Origin Story | Animation Magazine

i mean maybe the 145mil be the number for both production & marketing combined?
 

Still sounds wrong to me, i don’t believe for a second that this movie can in any way, be only 75 million dollars to produce. I’d bet money on it being far higher, that is if I had any. 

[AniNate]

This ambiguity is why I wish the internet wouldn't care so much about budgets. This movie never had the vibes of something that was looking to do $370m worldwide until that $147mil budget figure came in. No one really knows what the real budget is I think, but I'm sure Hasbro will be happy if it at least has a not embarrassing opening, good legs, performs well on streaming with its target audience, and sells more toys.

 

 

Edited September 17 by AniNate

[Boxofficerules]

49 minutes ago, YM! said:

“

According to TheFlatLannister of Box Office Theory, they have never seen anything quite like it. A sample size given has only 239 seats sold, so far, out of 30,000+ available. No showings have been added since demand obviously isn’t there.“

 

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2024/9/17/megalopolis-presales-at-historical-lows-3m-opening-weekend

 

@TheFlatLannister you made it

Things on this forum keep getting reported in news sources. Someone should plant fake news here “Terrifier 3 is outselling Star Wars: The Force Awakens.”

[filmpalace]

Transformers One T-2

 

Tickets sold: 59

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 11

 

0,81x Speak No Evil (T-2) – 1,0M

 

I know Speak No Evil is not a suitable comp for a family flick on a Thursday, but this is all I have right now, so please bear with me while I try to gain some more comps 😅

Edited September 17 by filmpalace

[Ryan C]

8 minutes ago, AniNate said:

This ambiguity is why I wish the internet wouldn't care so much about budgets. This movie never had the vibes of something that was looking to do $370m worldwide until that $147mil budget figure came in. No one really knows what the real budget is I think, but I'm sure Hasbro will be happy if it at least has a not embarrassing opening, good legs, performs well on streaming with its target audience, and sells more toys.

 

 

 

But then that wouldn't fit the internet's idea that we must call a movie immediately a hit or a flop based on opening weekend? For them, it's not about good word-of-mouth or toy sales, it's about that sweet opening weekend number and god forbid it misses it because they'll immediately call it a flop and say that Transformers is forever dead. 

 

In all seriousness though, toy sales clearly go a long way (I did not expect Mutant Mayhem to be that profitable) so this movie's box office run isn't a life or death situation. It would just be nice to get some clarity on what the actual budget is. 

[filmpalace]

Never Let Go T-2

 

Tickets sold: 12

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 5

 

0,16x Speak No Evil (T-2) – 216K

 

Lionsgate is headed towards yet another W this year

Edited September 17 by filmpalace

[filmpalace]

The Substance T-2

 

Tickets sold: 21

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 6

 

0,29x Speak No Evil (T-2) – 379K

 

Hoping this one will surprise a bit this weekend.

Edited September 17 by filmpalace

[filmpalace]

22 hours ago, filmpalace said:

Joker: Folie a Deux T-17

 

Tickets sold: 208 (+8)

Growth: 4%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 21

Joker: Folie a Deux T-16
 

Tickets sold: 216 (+8)

Growth: 4%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 21

Steady growth these past few days.

[vafrow]

23 minutes ago, filmpalace said:

Transformers One T-2

 

Tickets sold: 59

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 11

 

0,81x Speak No Evil (T-2) – 1,0M

 

I know Speak No Evil is not a suitable comp for a family flick on a Thursday, but this is all I have right now, so please bear with me while I try to gain some more comps 😅

 

Horror actually has a similar walk up rate as kids films and has successfully been used as comps before.

[Grand Cine]

The Trackers become the reference of box office . It's already the case for Reddit.

 

PS : it's reminds one time that @Eric the Marxistchange the title for box office theory tracking > Deadline/Box office Pro Tracking or a thing said the same fact.