The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Shawn Robbins]

 

[misterpepp]

Anora wide expansion tix on sale Oct 10, that one’s from Neon’s Twitter.

[CompoundTheGains]

Terrifier 3 California presale update. 
 
Thursday Oct 10 showings only. 
74 theaters (not nearly exhaustive and new theaters keep popping up but I’m sticking with these 74 theaters). 
174 showings (+5). 
 
T-22 was 1,743 tickets sold.  23.554 tickets per theater or 10.3136 tickets per showing. 
  
T-17 is 2,352 tickets sold (+34.94%).  31.7838 tickets per theater or 13.917 tickets per showing.  
 
T-14 is 2,714 tickets sold (+15.39%).  36.676 tickets per theater or 15.598 tickets per showing. 
 
I do think the % of tickets sold of some of the showings may drive more tickets for weekend showings soon and as we get closer to October 10 we may see less “growth” in Thursday sales because the theaters are simply full at some locations so people will chose a showing on a later date.

Edited 3 hours ago by CompoundTheGains

[Ryan C]

19 hours ago, Ryan C said:

 

The Wild Robot

 

T-1

 

Thursday: 1,118 Seats Sold (20.2% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 7:30PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: A stronger increase from Tuesday to Wednesday compared to Monday to Tuesday. That's a good sign as far as pre-sales for tomorrow and future walk-up business. 

 

Also, not to keep beating down a dead horse, but I looked at Friday's sales and even though Transformers One had the advantage of having almost every single PLF screen, this film is already selling a lot better and if today's increase from yesterday is indicative of future walk-up business, then a $30M+ weekend should be in store. 

 

I'm still not seeing the $50M that some are seeing (sorry @AniNate), but this should still have a good opening weekend and fantastic word-of-mouth that'll happily carry it throughout October and in the first few weeks of November. 

 

The Wild Robot

 

T-0

 

Thursday: 1,414 Seats Sold (26.4% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 1:55PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Thought the increase from yesterday would be much smaller, but this is a very good indicator of walk-up business for the rest of the day.

 

Like I said last night, this should land at somewhere between $2M-$3M in previews. Even if it comes lower, this still sets the stage for at least a $30M weekend due to an expected strong Thursday-Sunday multiplier and great word-of-mouth. 

 

Though now, I'm feeling pretty good about this one hitting between $35M-$40M. It's getting more and more clear that for a lot of families, this will be their first animated movie seeing at the theater since the summer, not Transformers One. 

Edited 3 hours ago by Ryan C

[CheeseWizard]

Honestly the better Wild Robot seems to be doing, the more apparent it is how badly paramount fucked the marketing and perception for TFOne from the get go. 

[AniNate]

 

[filmpalace]

On 9/25/2024 at 9:39 PM, filmpalace said:

The Wild Robot T-1

 

Tickets sold: 128 (+24)

Growth: 23%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 17

 

1,23x Speak No Evil (T-1) – 1,6M

1,47x Transformers One (T-1) - ?

 

Most likely underperforming here. Feel like more accurate numbers have been posted by other trackers.

The Wild Robot T-0

 

Tickets sold: 196 (+72)

Growth: 53%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 17

 

1,21x Speak No Evil (T-0) – 1,6M

1,23x Transformers One (T-0) - ?

 

Similar to Transformers last week, I’m expecting this to underindex in Las Vegas. My guess would be something around 2 – 2.5M

Edited 2 hours ago by filmpalace

[filmpalace]

On 9/25/2024 at 9:40 PM, filmpalace said:

Megalopolis T-1

 

Tickets sold: 90 (+10)

Growth: 13%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 7

 

1,11x Speak No Evil (T-1) – 1,1M

3,10x The Substance (T-1) – 1,0M

 

Average: 1,05M

Megalopolis T-0

 

Tickets sold: 105 (+15)

Growth: 17%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 7

 

0,64x Speak No Evil (T-0) – 842K

2,75x The Substance (T-0) – 897K

 

Average: 870K

 

Bad finish like I had already anticipated last week. Since nearly all sold tickets are for PLF showings, maybeeee it could get to 1M, but I’m not going to bet on it.

Edited 2 hours ago by filmpalace

[filmpalace]

1 hour ago, CompoundTheGains said:

Terrifier 3 California presale update. 
 
Thursday Oct 10 showings only. 
74 theaters (not nearly exhaustive and new theaters keep popping up but I’m sticking with these 74 theaters). 
174 showings (+5). 
 
T-22 was 1,743 tickets sold.  23.554 tickets per theater or 10.3136 tickets per showing. 
  
T-17 is 2,352 tickets sold (+34.94%).  31.7838 tickets per theater or 13.917 tickets per showing.  
 
T-14 is 2,714 tickets sold (+15.39%).  36.676 tickets per theater or 15.598 tickets per showing. 
 
I do think the % of tickets sold of some of the showings may drive more tickets for weekend showings soon and as we get closer to October 10 we may see less “growth” in Thursday sales because the theaters are simply full at some locations so people will chose a showing on a later date.

This is actually selling really well in the theaters I'm tracking as well. Not sure how much of a fan rush is behind the sales, but if it can keep up the pace, I think it might actually have a shot at an opening weekend around 10M

Edited 2 hours ago by filmpalace

[wattage]

25 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

Glad the estimates went up like Transformers did last week. They're basically in the same amount of theaters, not even a 20 theater count difference. It's is either gonna be the 2nd or 3rd widest release this weekend depending on how much of a hit Beetlejuice takes on its theater count.

[AniNate]

I did a quick count of evening sales for TWR at the 11 theaters I was tracking and they're currently at 273 (not including the matinees which I missed). So all I can say is the walkups are definitely coming.

[Ryan C]

Terrifier 3

 

T-14

 

Thursday: 412 Seats Sold (From 7 Theaters)

 

Taken as of 4:45PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Not sure how big this will be, but it definitely has potential for a $5M+ opening if more theaters get to book the film and the number of showtimes gets an increase. 

 

For now though, it's absolutely looking like this will be a mini-breakout sequel and with a reported budget of only $2M, expect Cineverse/Bloody Disgusting to give us more Art the Clown in the near future.

Edited 1 hour ago by Ryan C

[wattage]

I'm doing spot checks and I'll also echo what others have said on Saturday pre-sales outpacing Friday pre-sales, largely being driven by the PLFs selling well and by the earlier digital screenings having a lot more sales vs the early Friday screenings being sparse to no sales for obvious reasons. 

Edited 1 hour ago by wattage

[vafrow]

10 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

The Wild Robot, T-1, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 117

New Sales : 30

Growth: 34%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Tickets per Showtime: 6.2

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 26/5

Early Evening: 73/7

Late Evening: 18/5

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular:  7/1

Regular 3D: 0/1

Dolby: 17/2

Dolby 3D: 72/8

IMAX: 21/4

 

Comps 

0.278x KFP4 for $1.3M

0.320x IO2 for $4.2M

3.900x Garfield for $7.5M

1.463x TFOne for $4.1M

2.786x IF for $4.9M

0.669x Wonka for $2.3M

 

Average: $4.1M

 

Growth didn't seem top bad, but it's falling against comps across the board.

 

Based on where it was trending a few days ago, I'm not as optimistic. But, I imagi this should be walk up friendly.

 

Regardless, as non sequel animation, hard to find any reason to complain here.

 

I tried checking in on this. It was about 20% around 3:00. From other family friendly films, the walk up rate is tracking below what was observed in both IF and Inside Out 2 (the two cases where I grabbed some midday estimate).

 

As my numbers were tracking higher than average and growth is slowing, it's supporting that convergence of around $3M, maybe lower.

[AniNate]

$3mil would still be really good by itself, hopefully it stays around the high 2s at least.

 

It's a school night and I am sure a lot of people would rather just wait until they don't have to wake their kids up in the morning. IF might've had some school districts that were out early to drive up its Thursday walkups, and Panda also probably had some school spring breaks.

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by AniNate

[Boxofficerules]

What is the highest grossing unrated movie?

[misterpepp]

34 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

What is the highest grossing unrated movie?

 

 

(Editing my reply since I got my concert movies mixed up!)

 

Post-pandemic, the biggest opening weekend for a Not Rated movie is for Renaissance, and I believe it's also the highest-grossing one in total domestically post-COVID.

 

All time NR is tricky since some movies that were NR when they came out were later rated down the line. If you trust The-Numbers that The Jungle Book '67 wasn't rated when it initially came out, that's the winner. If you're only counting movies that were NR when they came out and are still NR, it's the IMAX Space Station documentary.

Edited 14 minutes ago by misterpepp